2000年以来中国苹果产业发展趋势分析

对2000年以来我国苹果生产、消费和贸易情况进行分析发现,我国苹果生产区域布局较为稳定,生产高度集中于苹果生产优势区域。苹果生产效率大幅提升,不断满足城乡居民对苹果的消费需求,城乡差距不断缩小,苹果产品贸易顺差进一步扩大。但苹果生产成本利润率显著下降,消费者对苹果品质及营养也提出了更高的要求,苹果生产面临成本、质量等方面的挑战。与此同时,苹果生产中技术服务、农业保险等社会化服务也有了初步发展,未来苹果生产将进一步向高效、优质、社会化发展。     

世界溶解浆生产消费情况及未来发展趋势

文中总结分析了1961—2017年世界溶解浆生产和消费情况。溶解浆的生产和消费呈现由发达国家（地区）向发展中国家（地区）转移的趋势短期内不会改变。溶解浆生产属于技术和资金密集型产业，随着中国和印度等发展中国家制浆造纸工业的技术进步，溶解浆的生产量将增加，进口占比逐年降低。世界溶解浆的生产和消费量在今后若干年内仍呈增长趋势。2017年世界溶解浆的消耗量为792.9万t，进口量占比为64.3%。乐观预测到2030年世界溶解浆消费量将达到1 230万t，在2017年的基础上增加60%。中国是世界最大的溶解浆生产国、进口国和消费国，但溶解浆的生产成本居高不下，浆料品质不够稳定，与先进国家存在一定差距。亟待投入研究力量，开发适宜的溶解浆生产工艺，提升溶解浆质量并降低生产成本。     

中国高粱产业发展特征及趋势分析

高粱是我国重要的杂粮作物。近年来，中美贸易中高粱交易量剧烈波动，高粱供需形势发生显著变化，高粱产业发展备受关注。从中国高粱的生产特征、贸易特征、消费特征等方面入手，对1960-2018年国内高粱产业发展趋势及发展现状进行分析。研究发现，中国高粱从主要粮食作物转变为小杂粮，近年来种植面积略有提高；国内高粱消费主要用于酿酒和饲料，虽然中国是世界第三大高粱消费国，但人均消费水平并不高；目前，中国作为世界第一大高粱进口国，进口量受饲料高粱需求影响猛增猛减，出口量极小且相对稳定。未来，中国高粱的发展规模将保持相对稳定，新的增长空间主要取决于旱作粮食作物的发展和消费途径的拓展。     

无源蓄冷控温运输箱设计与试验

针对蓄冷运输箱信息化程度低、控温时间短、控温困难等问题,设计了一款集控温、远程监控、定位、故障诊断等功能于一体的蓄冷运输箱。以脐橙为试验对象,结合能耗模型,对蓄冷控温箱控温性能进行了研究。结果表明,箱内各截面温度不均匀系数分别为0.38、0.47、0.78,温度极差最大值为2.8℃,均匀性较好;当蓄冷剂用量为180 kg,预冷脐橙660 kg,在外部环境平均温度26.39℃的条件下,总控温时长为122 h,风机共执行控温21次,且随着蓄冷量减少,风机开启控温所用时间呈指数上升趋势,决定系数不小于0.928 0;结合能耗模型分析得出,该箱体在广州夏季高温环境下可控温5 d以上,能够满足远距离运输要求。     

不同生育期成龄灰枣树茎流速率与气象因子的关系

【目的】在微喷灌的灌溉方式下,研究不同天气和不同气象因子条件下成龄灰枣树的茎流速率,精准测定出成龄枣树的耗水量,为优化枣树的土壤水分管理提供生产指导。【方法】采用针式茎流计,连续监测灰枣树茎流速率,分析枣树的茎流速率受不同天气和气象因子的影响程度。【结果】晴天和阴天茎流速率的波动变化过程呈倒“U”型的单峰曲线,而多云天气下呈“M”型的双峰曲线。1 d中枣树的茎流累积趋势呈“S”变化,各生育期耗水量大小排序为果实膨大期>成熟期>花期>萌芽展叶期。只有成熟期枣树的茎流速率与空气温度相关程度最高,其余都是太阳辐射。各生育期太阳辐射与枣树茎流速率的相关系数R_D1=0.964^**、R_D2=0.969^**、R_D3=0.957^**和R_D4=0.886^**。利用多元线性回归在枣树的各生育期内对茎流速率和气象因子进行输入回归,建立不同天气条件下,各生育期枣树茎流速率和气象因子的多元线性回归模型,经过回归系数和相关系数检验,各生育期的多元线性回归方程均达到了显著水平。【结论】各生育期内,典型天气的茎流速率排序为晴天>多云>阴天,整个生育期中的需水关键期是果实膨大期,对枣树的茎流速率产生最大影响的气象因子是太阳辐射和空气温度。     

Comparative functional responses of native and high‐impacting invasive fishes: impact predictions for native prey populations

Comparative functional responses (FRs) can predict impacts of invasive species, including piscivorous fishes, via quantifying their depletion of native food resources as a function of prey density. The utility of FRs for predicting impacts on prey populations by invasive fishes of different trophic guilds was tested here by comparing the FRs of the invaders Cyprinus carpio and Carassius auratus, with three native, trophically analogous fishes, Barbus barbus, Squalius cephalus and Tinca tinca. Chironomid larvae and Gammarus pulex were used as prey items. Predictions, developed from studies on the foraging of C. carpio and C. auratus in the literature, were that the invaders would have significantly higher consumption rates for chironomids than the native fishes, but not for G. pulex. Mean consumption rates for chironomids were significantly lower for both invaders than B. barbus and S. cephalus, but were similar to T. tinca. Barbus barbus had a significantly lower consumption rate of G. pulex than both invaders, but there were no significant differences between S. cephalus, T. tinca and the invaders. All FRs were type II, with FR curves for the invaders preying upon chironomids never being significantly higher than the native fishes, contrary to predictions. For G. pulex, some significant differences were apparent between the invaders and native fishes, but again were contrary to predictions. These results indicated that when predation impacts of invasive fishes could also be a function of their population density and body sizes, these parameters should be incorporated into FR models to improve impact predictions.     

幼龄期压砂地枸杞产量和品质多指标耦合灌溉制度优化

为提高宁夏中部干旱带幼龄期压砂地枸杞灌水效率,保障枸杞产量和品质,进行了3水平灌水定额(300、225 m~3·hm~(-2)和150 m~3·hm~(-2))的田间对比试验,采用综合指标增量最优方法对灌溉制度进行了优化。研究发现:枸杞5月上旬萌芽期耗水以土壤蒸发为主,日耗水量0.6～1.2 mm,6月中旬进入夏果花期耗水量增大,日耗水量2.5～3.7 mm,7月中旬枸杞夏果期耗水量继续增大,达2.4～4.3 mm,7月下旬日耗水量最大,为3.2～4.7 mm,8月中旬耗水量下降,日耗水量3.0～4.2 mm。灌水定额对枸杞产量影响显著(P0.05),灌水定额300 m~3·hm~(-2)时产量最高,为1 402.65 kg·hm~(-2);灌水定额225 m~3·hm~(-2)时枸杞多糖、β-胡萝卜素和黄酮较高,含量分别为4.56%、0.15%和0.41%;灌水定额150 m~3·hm~(-2)时枸杞甜菜碱含量较高,为0.77%。进一步通过综合指标增量最优方法进行优化,结果表明β-胡萝卜素含量最高时得到综合指标增量最大,为-5.4%,总耗水量为450 mm。枸杞夏果花期进入需水关键期,阶段耗水量达70 mm以上,进入6月中旬枸杞需水量增大,旬耗水量达29 mm以上。可见,幼龄期压砂地枸杞产量及品质指标均达到最优的耗水量较难获得,但是在β-胡萝卜素含量最高时可以获得产量和品质多指标耦合的最优耗水量,据此进行灌溉制度优化,可以一定程度上实现幼龄期压砂地枸杞优质高产。     

我国居民肉类消费特征及趋势判断——基于双对数线性支出模型和LA/AIDS模型

为分析我国城乡居民肉类消费水平及其结构特征,判断居民肉类消费的未来趋势,基于FAO和统计年鉴等相关统计数据,运用双对数线性支出模型和LA/AIDS模型(Linear approximated/Almost ideal deal demand system模型),测算我国及城乡居民肉类消费需求的价格弹性和收入弹性。结果显示我国居民肉类消费量不断增加,且城乡居民肉类消费差距逐步缩小。居民对牛羊肉需求的收入弹性最大,禽肉次之,猪肉最小。其中,农村居民对各项肉类消费需求的收入弹性均显著高于城镇。我国居民的牛羊肉需求对自身价格及其他肉类价格变动较敏感,猪肉需求对自身价格与其他肉类价格变动敏感度较低。由此推断,未来我国居民对牛羊肉消费将呈波动增长态势,而对猪肉的消费呈缓慢增长,但消费量趋于稳定。     

水稻秧盘育秧制浆刀片匀浆过程分析及其优化设计

针对现阶段水稻秧盘育秧技术中制匀泥浆效率低下的问题,采用正交设计方法、计算流体动力学数值模拟和试验分析,对不同参数刀片在水田中匀浆作业时的匀浆效果和功率损耗进行研究。结果表明:1)单刀切削幅宽为影响泥浆运动速度和功率损耗的最大因素,折弯角影响不明显;2)当刀片滑切角为50°,折弯角为115°,单刀切削幅宽为60 mm时,刀片匀浆效果好;当滑切角为30°,折弯角为135°,单刀切削幅宽为20 mm时,功率损耗小;3)刀片中心面处和刀片折弯侧0.1 m处刀片打匀泥浆效果良好;4)功率损耗仿真值与试验值平均相对误差为12.16%,在可接受范围内。     

An acoustic based approach to evaluate the effect of different diet lengths on feeding behavior of Litopenaeus vannamei

Studying shrimp feeding behavior is challenging and, traditionally, studies have been using direct visual observation or video recordings with image analysis under laboratory conditions. Passive acoustics monitoring (PAM) is a non-invasive approach to study feeding behavior of penaeids, as their mandibles emit clicking sounds during feed ingestion. Considering the wide variation available in shrimp diet lengths, our knowledge is still limited about their effects on feeding behavior. The present study was designed to use acoustics to evaluate the feeding behavior of Litopenaeus vannamei fed different diet lengths. A commercial pelleted diet with similar diameter (2.4 mm) and three different lengths was used as treatments “small” (2.35 mm), “medium” (4.26 mm) and “large” (8.42 mm). Three separate trials were performed with fastened shrimp (20 g), using omnidirectional hydrophones and external audio recorders. Our approach started with the characterization of the click acoustic parameters produced by three shrimps when fed the different diet lengths in anechoic chambers (15 L). We then analyze the number of clicks produced per pellet and duration of the clicking activity when shrimp fed a single pellet in individual tanks (1 L). Finally, the acoustic energy of feeding activity and feed consumption, as well as theirs relationship to predict feed intake was evaluated in aquaria (70 L) with five shrimps. The acoustic parameters of isolated clicks were not affected by the different diet lengths, however, doubling the length of the pellet resulted in doubling the number of clicks emitted during feeding activity. The duration of clicking activity per pellet indicated that small pellets are consumed 2.9 and 4.7 times faster than medium and large pellets, respectively. Furthermore, feeding acoustic energy of small pellets decreased rapidly after feed offer, as their faster consumption probably contributed to shrimps achieved satiety earlier than larger diets. Feed consumption was similar among diets length, but significantly correlated with the feeding acoustic energy emitted by L. vannamei, which is a breakthrough in feeding behavioral research. The results highlight the potential and possibilities of an acoustic approach to estimate feed consumption, as well as an alternative to traditional methods in feeding behavioral studies to improve efficiency of feed management.