Price formation of the salmon aquaculture futures market

ABSTRACT

This study examines price formation of the internationally traded salmon futures exchange. Analyzing data from 2006 to 2015, the study identifies the co-integration relationship between the spot market price and 1–6-, 9- and 12-month futures contract prices. With exception of the 12-month maturity futures price, the unbiasedness hypothesis is shown to hold, thus evidence of risk neutrality and efficiency among the co-integrated pairs. Further, it is evident that the spot price provides leadership role in the price discovery function for the 1-, 2- and 6-months futures contract. On the contrary, the 3-, 4-, 5-, 9- and 12-months futures contracts provide the expected leadership role in the price discovery function, a case that supports a matured market that can be considered a necessary price risk management tool. The mixed finding is an indication of a maturing or near matured futures market. Analysis of the term structure of futures volatilities reveal that the shorter the length of the futures contract, the more volatility there is. This is because salmon prices exhibit short-term cyclical and seasonal patterns like other agricultural commodities. As such, salmon producers will be better off hedging in far month futures contracts, ceteris paribus.     

Hedging salmon price risk

Salmon price is highly volatile and hard to predict, which obscures planning decisions and raises financing costs for market participants. This study considers hedging the spot price uncertainty with salmon futures contracts. It uses a new framework of hedging under square loss, consisting of a new objective function, an optimal hedge ratio and a measure of hedging effectiveness. The new framework aims at minimizing the expected squared forecast error. It generalizes the classical minimum variance hedging as it relaxes the assumption of known expected prices. The salmon futures contracts deliver satisfactory hedging performance, albeit constrained by low liquidity. Therefore, I suggest holding the contract through maturity rather than closing the futures and the spot positions simultaneously. This strategy alleviates the liquidity issue and saves transaction costs. All things considered, hedging with salmon futures is a moderately effective way of handling the salmon price uncertainty.     

Salmon price volatility: A weight-class-specific multivariate approach

Salmon spot price has been highly volatile and hard to predict since mid-2000s, obscuring the industry players’ planning decisions. ARMA-GARCH and dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) models were employed on weekly data for 1995–2013 to examine the behavior of weight-class-specific prices which are directly relevant for salmon production and risk management. Two periods of different volatility regimes were identified, before and after 2006 when the salmon market was undergoing fundamental changes. Both volatility and conditional correlations increased from 1996–2005 to 2007–2013, and return dynamics became more homogenous across weight classes. This development is conducive to the functioning of the salmon futures and options exchange.     

Performance of shrimp futures markets as price discovery and hedging mechanisms

Abstract

Granger causality tests revealed leading indicators of shrimp futures prices, implying that futures prices do not reflect all available market information and potentially fail to be an exemplary price discovery mechanism. Trading simulations confirmed that the use of some leading indicators allowed profitable arbitrage in shrimp futures trading. Shrimp futures were deficient as a hedging tool, as well. Correlations between futures and wholesale cash prices were often low, and basis risk rivaled price risk. Lack of liquidity is a likely explanation for shrimp futures’ shortcomings as a hedging tool and price discovery mechanism.     

RECENT TRENDS IN SALMON PRICE VOLATILITY

The price of farmed Atlantic salmon from Norway has increased in recent years. This new regime follows several years of consistently falling prices. At the same time price volatility has increased substantially. This article models the volatility of salmon prices and establishes empirically that volatility is on an increasing trend. Further empirical analysis suggests that the volatility trend is largely accounted for by the common trend in other food prices relevant to salmon, including meats, cereals, oils and fish meal observed in recent years. Other potentially contributing factors to volatility are also discussed. This includes the role of the 2005 maximum total allowable biomass restriction, the 2006 introduction of the Fish Pool ASA futures market for salmon, the Chilean Salmon crisis and the increasing use of bilateral contracts.     

修正大豆期现货价格的长短期关系：一个结构突变理论的应用

本文应用z—A方法和Perron方法等结构突变检验以及Gregory—Hansen变结构协整方法,对大豆期货和现货价格之间是否存在长短期均衡关系进行重新研究。研究发现。样本期内大豆期货和现货均发生了两次结构突变。通过考虑是否发生结构突变的对比分析表明,未考虑结构突变时大豆期现货不存在协整关系,考虑结构突变时二者则存在长期均衡关系和短期动态调整关系;考虑结构突变向量的误差修正模型（EcM）的预测精度比未考虑结构突变时高出5．5％,充分证实了结构突变在处理时间序列数据时的必要性和有效性。     

IS THERE A FUTURE FOR SALMON FUTURES? AN ANALYSIS OF THE PROSPECTS OF A POTENTIAL FUTURES MARKET FOR SALMON

Many futures contracts for food commodities have been introduced; however, most of them have been withdrawn from the market due to poor liquidity. In this article, various known success factors for futures contracts are discussed with regards to a proposed futures contract for salmon. Criteria from the literature are used. The principal conclusion is that a salmon contract might have difficulty surviving for a long period of time. Alternative means to manage the price risk in the salmon industry are proposed.     

Forecasting monthly catfish (Ictalurus punctatus.) pond bank and feed prices

Volatility in catfish pond bank and feed prices lead to profit uncertainty in the catfish industry. Analysis of the factors that affect those prices and development of a forecasting model would provide guidance to catfish farm managers. Error-correction models (ECM) based on cointegrating relationships among variables were specified following development of a single-equation ARIMAX model. Factors identified as those that influence catfish price were: lagged value of catfish, feed and substitute product prices, while those that influenced feed price were: lagged value of feed, corn and soybean prices. ECM estimates implied that fish price adjusts approximately 6% and feed price 22% to the long-run equilibrium in 1?month. The analysis showed that it takes less than 17?months and 5?months to correct for long-run disequilibrium for catfish and feed prices, respectively. The ARIMAX model demonstrated a better fit for both in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting for catfish price and had better out-of-sample predictive ability for feed prices.     

Farmed fish to supermarket: Testing for price leadership and price transmission in the salmon supply chain

In this article, we measure the extent of price transmission and test price leadership in the salmon supply chain. The data represent monthly observations (2005–2014) on export price of fresh salmon from Norway and on retail prices for a variety of salmon products in France and United Kingdom. The contribution is to use a Johansen bivariate time-series approach to quantify the degree of price transmission on a broader set of consumer salmon products than has been previously studied. Of the original 17 retail products examined only 8 cointegrate with export prices. Of these, all but one reject a null of full price transmission and all show price causality from export to retail level. Price transmission to retail prices decreases, as more processing is involved and increases for packaged salmon products compared to salmon sold in the fresh fish counter.     

Pricing efficiency across destination markets for Norwegian salmon exports

This paper investigates how pricing efficiency of Norwegian salmon exports varies across destination market characteristics. Efficiency is defined as the rate at which individual transaction prices adjust to common market information, and is estimated by dynamic fixed effects panel models with parameters conditional on trade attributes using micro-level trade data. Our results show that contract type (Incoterms) used in transactions can be used to segment the Norwegian export markets into three types: (1) high-value trade to large distant markets, (2) medium-value trade to close high-income markets, and (3) lower-value large bulk trades to lower-income close markets. We find that pricing efficiency is lowest for committed trades over long distance using planes, and highest for less committed large bulk trades to close markets. Despite significant heterogeneity, the majority of salmon price variation (around ¾) is common, providing a clear justification for the representativeness of a salmon price index.     

THE RUSSIAN SEAFOOD REVOLUTION: SHIFTING CONSUMPTION TOWARDS AQUACULTURE PRODUCTS

A food consumption revolution is taking place in Russia. After decades of severe constraints on food consumption options under the communist regime Russian consumers are now adopting new food products—including seafood products – at a high pace. Since Russian consumers have previously had very limited seafood consumption choices, the market can be seen as an interesting laboratory for investigating consumer responses to products that have previously not been available. Among imported seafood products are both wild and farmed species. Furthermore, Russian imports include both traditional species such as herring, and ‘new’ species such as pangasius. We analyze market integration among seafood products using Russian monthly import prices from 2002 to 2007 on several products, such as herring, salmonids and pangasius. We find that pangasius compete in the white fish segment, and is a price leader. In the salmonids market, farmed salmon trout appears to be the price leader, both in the fresh and frozen market segment.     

Forecasting weekly salmon prices: Risk management in fish farming

Abstract

Production of farmed salmon has increased substantially during the last decade. Most of the salmon production is sold spot, resulting in large price fluctuations both for the producer and for the exporter. No derivative markets exist; consequently, no one can hedge prices. If prices could be forecasted within reasonable confidence bounds, risk would be reduced. This study used six easily applicable procedures to forecast weekly producer prices for salmon. The procedures tested were Classical Additive Decomposition (CAD), Holt Winters Exponential Smoothing (HW), Auto Regressive Moving Average (ARMA), Vector Auto Regression (VAR) and two different naïve models: post‐sample predictive accuracy was evaluated. Results indicated that the CAD model forecasted the direction of price movements best, whereas the VAR model performed best according to accuracy measures.     

Economic Analysis of Japanese Household Demand for Salmon

The recent glut of both wild and farmed salmon in world markets has forced producers to become aware of the need to expand their marketing efforts to ensure that demand is not outpaced by supply resulting in a further decline in prices. Japan has been a major market for wild salmon, particularly sockeye salmon from North America, since the introduction of the 200 mile Exclusive Economic Zone. As farmed supplies have continued to increase, exporters such as Norway and Chile have turned their attention to this market as well. Up until now, most of the farmed salmon exported to Japan has been targeted to the restaurant market. If exporters wish to expand their market in Japan, they may focus also on the retail market. Prior to any assessment of the potential of the retail market for fresh farmed salmon, it is useful to understand the role that salmon plays in Japanese household seafood consumption.
This paper examines household consumption patterns of salmon in Japan. An econometric model is presented which estimates household demand for fresh and salted salmon focusing specifically on the effects of seasonality, regional location, and prices of other seafood products. Two systems of demand equations, one for each of two regions of Japan, are specified and estimated using monthly data on prices and expenditures to capture the effects on household demand for 12 seafood products. Results indicate that seasonality plays a significant role in the demand for many seafood products, particularly fresh and salted salmon. In addition, these seasonal effects are not necessarily the same between regions of Japan. Salmon competes with different seafood products during different times of the year. A rich variety of factors should be considered when marketing fresh aquacultured salmon in the Japanese retail market.     

Price volatility dynamics in aquaculture fish markets

Abstract

In this paper, a time-varying student-t copula is used to capture information on price volatility dependence in the short-, medium-, and long-run horizon in the US market for frozen and fresh salmon, trout, tilapia and catfish. Using monthly data from July 1992 to March 2017, the volatility dynamics for these aquaculture species are assessed. The analysis allows indicating significant differences in the volatility relationships, depending on time-frequency. While short-run volatility has limited dependency, there is significant dependency in both the medium- and long-run, indicating that market integration is stronger in the long-run. The information is particularly important to buyers and producers utilizing the futures markets, as contracts are typically traded using a set of frequencies, and may help them manage and reduce price risk.     

Impact of the Great East Japan Earthquake on the oyster market: a difference-in-differences estimation

This paper uses prefecture-level data during 1970–2015 to examine the impact of the Great East Japan Earthquake on the oyster market in Japan. Using a difference-in-differences estimation, we find that the disaster decreased the oyster production by 65%. This negative effect peaked in 2012, but did not completely disappear 4 years after the disaster. In contrast, we find that oyster prices only increased by 26%, and the parameter estimate is only marginally significant. Moreover, this impact is relatively constant over time. The apparent lack of price changes corresponding to large production changes can be caused by three factors: elastic demand, market integration, and demand shocks. We examine each possibility and conclude that the demand shocks due to the concern for radioactive contamination is the most likely cause of the small impact on oyster prices.     

Price transmission among different Atlantic salmon products in the U.S. import market

The cross-commodity price transmission is an approach to derive meaningful results from the price information, and is mostly influenced by the substitutability and complementary relations among products. Using time series data collected from the National Marine Fisheries Statistics, the present study specified and estimated cross-commodity price transmission models for 13 salmon products imported in the U.S. market. The salmon products are differentiated by form, cut, source/origin, and production environment. The estimated cross-product price transmission elasticity and degree of substitutability among them varied considerably. Whole fresh farmed Canadian and Norwegian Atlantic salmon did not have any close import substitutes in the U.S. market among the salmon products considered in the study. A reduced pricing strategy would result in an increase in U.S. salmon import market share of Chilean and U.K. Atlantic fillet fresh, if the U.S. import demand for it is relatively own-price elastic.     

Effects of inter‐country aquaculture technology diffusion rates on international shrimp market shares

Abstract

Technology innovation and diffusion in shrimp aquaculture has resulted in increased quantity and supply of shrimp to satisfy expanding consumer demand. Logistic growth curves are estimated to depict the rate of diffusion of shrimp aquaculture technology throughout the major shrimp producing countries. A time series/cross sectional model is applied to 1985–1991 and 1995–1999 production data to evaluate factors influencing shrimp production growth rates. Calculated market shares for each country indicate that operating costs, lagged shrimp price, number of hectares in production, lagged export quantity of shrimp, and market structure influence the aquaculture technological diffusion rates and shrimp produced, and suggest that countries that incorporate technologies into their production system benefit the most from increased market share.     

Biosecurity Versus Profits: A Multiobjective Model for the Aquaculture Industry

In this study, we measure the value of sanitary restrictions in terms of forgone profits. For this, we model the short‐run trade‐off between biosecurity and profits in the aquaculture industry. Incorporating the concept of “sanitary desirable volume (SDV)” for the salmon industry, we optimize a multiobjective model using base information from the Los Lagos region in Chile and identify a Pareto frontier. Within this setting, we analyze the shadow price of one objective in terms of the other, the effect of changes in the administrative regulations that limit fish density in the farms and the effect of prices on the Pareto frontier. We find that the effect of sanitary restrictions in terms of forgone profits is quantitatively important and that this effect is dependent on both the level of sanitary restrictions and the relative product prices. This has important implications for the design of sanitary restrictions in aquaculture. The level of the SDV should be determined carefully to avoid costly excess regulation. Moreover, market conditions can also affect the optimal level of regulation.     

THE VALUE OF INFORMATION IN SALMON FARMING. HARVESTING THE RIGHT FISH AT THE RIGHT TIME

Research on management practices in fish farming has traditionally focused on two topics: production planning and forecasting of prices. This article combines these two areas of research, and illustrates how information on price patterns can change production plans, and hence increase the value of the farm enterprise. It will present a model farm and illustrate, with different levels of price information, how information on future prices alters the original production plan and hence creates extra value for the farmer. Although the specifics and empirical application of the paper are on salmon and salmon farming, the ideas and general results could be applied to all farmed species.     

From Atlantic to Pacific: Price links in the US wild and farmed salmon market

Abstract

In 1990, the US International Trade Commission stated that Atlantic and Pacific salmon species did not share a substitute relationship in any of the product forms. This result is contrary to economic demand studies that show a substitute relationship for Atlantic and Pacific salmon species. Time‐series results reported in this paper are consistent with the earlier demand studies and show evidence of an equilibrium price system that includes Atlantic, chinook and coho salmon species for the US market. For these three salmon species a substitute relationship cannot be rejected. However, we observe only weak price links across the three different species in the different US regional markets.