Price formation of the salmon aquaculture futures market

ABSTRACT

This study examines price formation of the internationally traded salmon futures exchange. Analyzing data from 2006 to 2015, the study identifies the co-integration relationship between the spot market price and 1–6-, 9- and 12-month futures contract prices. With exception of the 12-month maturity futures price, the unbiasedness hypothesis is shown to hold, thus evidence of risk neutrality and efficiency among the co-integrated pairs. Further, it is evident that the spot price provides leadership role in the price discovery function for the 1-, 2- and 6-months futures contract. On the contrary, the 3-, 4-, 5-, 9- and 12-months futures contracts provide the expected leadership role in the price discovery function, a case that supports a matured market that can be considered a necessary price risk management tool. The mixed finding is an indication of a maturing or near matured futures market. Analysis of the term structure of futures volatilities reveal that the shorter the length of the futures contract, the more volatility there is. This is because salmon prices exhibit short-term cyclical and seasonal patterns like other agricultural commodities. As such, salmon producers will be better off hedging in far month futures contracts, ceteris paribus.     

The spot-forward relationship in the Atlantic salmon market

This study examines the Fish Pool salmon futures contract with respect to how well the market performs in terms of the futures price being an unbiased estimator of the spot price and whether the market provides a price discovery function. Using data for 2006–2014 and with futures prices with maturities up to 6 months we find that spot and lagged futures prices are cointegrated and that the futures price provides an unbiased estimate of the spot price. We also find that, with the exception of the front month, that the causality is one-directional. The spot prices lead futures prices between 1–6 months maturity. Hence, while the spot and lagged futures prices are unbiased estimates, we do not find support for the hypothesis that futures prices provide a price discovery function. Rather, it seems that innovations in the spot price influence futures prices. This finding is not uncommon in new and immature futures contracts markets. Hence, the salmon futures market is still immature and has not yet reached the stage where futures prices are able to predict future spot prices.     

IS THERE A FUTURE FOR SALMON FUTURES? AN ANALYSIS OF THE PROSPECTS OF A POTENTIAL FUTURES MARKET FOR SALMON

Many futures contracts for food commodities have been introduced; however, most of them have been withdrawn from the market due to poor liquidity. In this article, various known success factors for futures contracts are discussed with regards to a proposed futures contract for salmon. Criteria from the literature are used. The principal conclusion is that a salmon contract might have difficulty surviving for a long period of time. Alternative means to manage the price risk in the salmon industry are proposed.     

Performance of shrimp futures markets as price discovery and hedging mechanisms

Abstract

Granger causality tests revealed leading indicators of shrimp futures prices, implying that futures prices do not reflect all available market information and potentially fail to be an exemplary price discovery mechanism. Trading simulations confirmed that the use of some leading indicators allowed profitable arbitrage in shrimp futures trading. Shrimp futures were deficient as a hedging tool, as well. Correlations between futures and wholesale cash prices were often low, and basis risk rivaled price risk. Lack of liquidity is a likely explanation for shrimp futures’ shortcomings as a hedging tool and price discovery mechanism.     

RECENT TRENDS IN SALMON PRICE VOLATILITY

The price of farmed Atlantic salmon from Norway has increased in recent years. This new regime follows several years of consistently falling prices. At the same time price volatility has increased substantially. This article models the volatility of salmon prices and establishes empirically that volatility is on an increasing trend. Further empirical analysis suggests that the volatility trend is largely accounted for by the common trend in other food prices relevant to salmon, including meats, cereals, oils and fish meal observed in recent years. Other potentially contributing factors to volatility are also discussed. This includes the role of the 2005 maximum total allowable biomass restriction, the 2006 introduction of the Fish Pool ASA futures market for salmon, the Chilean Salmon crisis and the increasing use of bilateral contracts.     

Salmon price volatility: A weight-class-specific multivariate approach

Salmon spot price has been highly volatile and hard to predict since mid-2000s, obscuring the industry players’ planning decisions. ARMA-GARCH and dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) models were employed on weekly data for 1995–2013 to examine the behavior of weight-class-specific prices which are directly relevant for salmon production and risk management. Two periods of different volatility regimes were identified, before and after 2006 when the salmon market was undergoing fundamental changes. Both volatility and conditional correlations increased from 1996–2005 to 2007–2013, and return dynamics became more homogenous across weight classes. This development is conducive to the functioning of the salmon futures and options exchange.     

Price volatility dynamics in aquaculture fish markets

Abstract

In this paper, a time-varying student-t copula is used to capture information on price volatility dependence in the short-, medium-, and long-run horizon in the US market for frozen and fresh salmon, trout, tilapia and catfish. Using monthly data from July 1992 to March 2017, the volatility dynamics for these aquaculture species are assessed. The analysis allows indicating significant differences in the volatility relationships, depending on time-frequency. While short-run volatility has limited dependency, there is significant dependency in both the medium- and long-run, indicating that market integration is stronger in the long-run. The information is particularly important to buyers and producers utilizing the futures markets, as contracts are typically traded using a set of frequencies, and may help them manage and reduce price risk.     

修正大豆期现货价格的长短期关系：一个结构突变理论的应用

本文应用z—A方法和Perron方法等结构突变检验以及Gregory—Hansen变结构协整方法,对大豆期货和现货价格之间是否存在长短期均衡关系进行重新研究。研究发现。样本期内大豆期货和现货均发生了两次结构突变。通过考虑是否发生结构突变的对比分析表明,未考虑结构突变时大豆期现货不存在协整关系,考虑结构突变时二者则存在长期均衡关系和短期动态调整关系;考虑结构突变向量的误差修正模型（EcM）的预测精度比未考虑结构突变时高出5．5％,充分证实了结构突变在处理时间序列数据时的必要性和有效性。     

Forecasting weekly salmon prices: Risk management in fish farming

Abstract

Production of farmed salmon has increased substantially during the last decade. Most of the salmon production is sold spot, resulting in large price fluctuations both for the producer and for the exporter. No derivative markets exist; consequently, no one can hedge prices. If prices could be forecasted within reasonable confidence bounds, risk would be reduced. This study used six easily applicable procedures to forecast weekly producer prices for salmon. The procedures tested were Classical Additive Decomposition (CAD), Holt Winters Exponential Smoothing (HW), Auto Regressive Moving Average (ARMA), Vector Auto Regression (VAR) and two different naïve models: post‐sample predictive accuracy was evaluated. Results indicated that the CAD model forecasted the direction of price movements best, whereas the VAR model performed best according to accuracy measures.     

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF NETCAGE VERSUS SEA-BAG PRODUCTION SYSTEMS FOR SALMON AQUACULTURE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA

Conventional open netcage systems for salmon aquaculture are under scrutiny and criticism partially because they are believed to generate adverse environmental impacts on other resource users and the surrounding environment. One alternative to preventing or miniming these impacts is to use enclosed systems. Experience indicates that these enclosed systems are technically feasible and environmentally promising, but they are economically demanding because of high capital and operating costs. Therefore, an economic analysis of open netcage and sea-bag systems for salmon aquaculture was conducted to examine the profitability of salmon aquaculture operations between these two systems. The study shows that netcage systems are more financially profitable than sea-bag systems when environmental costs are either not or only partially considered. Sea-bag systems can be financially profitable only when they produce fish that achieve a price premium. Sensitivity analyses reveal that market price has the most important impact on the profitability of both systems; changes in discount rates, fish density, feed costs, and environmental costs also have major impacts on the profitability of netcage systems. Changes in the length of the growth cycle, survival rate, and feed conversion ratio have minor impacts on the profitability of sea-bag systems.     

Index‐based analysis of climate change impact on streamflow conditions important for Northern Pike,Chub and Atlantic salmon

Climate change is expected to affect the flow regime, cause loss of habitat, change community composition and behavioural habits of fish. This study assessed the impact of climate change on ecologically relevant streamflow conditions for fish migration and spawning in the Vistula and the Odra river basins. Streamflow simulations obtained with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for the historical period and two future horizons were driven by nine bias‐corrected EURO‐CORDEX Regional Climate Models under two greenhouse gas concentration trajectories. This study identified a subset of Indicators of Hydrological Alteration (IHA) that are relevant for pike, Esox lucius L., chub, Squalius cephalus (L.), and Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar L. IHA indicators were calculated and compared for different scenarios. An index‐based framework identified that all considered species will be impacted by climate change, with Atlantic salmon facing the largest impact. The model's uncertainty was addressed through an aggregation method that assessed inconsistencies in the model's response.     

ON THE WILLINGNESS-TO-PAY FOR RECREATIONAL FISHING—ESCAPED FARMED VERSUS WILD ATLANTIC SALMON

This article explores to what extent escaped farmed salmon from fish farms affect the willingness-to-pay for recreational fishing of Atlantic salmon in Norwegian rivers. This is a first attempt to explore the economic consequences of escaped farmed species in terms of the anglers’ willingness-to-pay for fishing permits working through the relationship between the price of fishing permits and the share of escaped farmed salmon. The empirical analysis is based on the results from a contingent valuation survey conducted in Norway. It is found that the presence of escaped farmed salmon in Norwegian rivers may have severe economic consequences on the willingness-to-pay for recreational fishing with a reduction of up to 85% compared to a situation with a ‘pure’ wild salmon stock.     

ARKANSAS CATFISH FARMERS AND MARKETING CONTRACTS: SOME INSIGHTS INTO MOTIVATIONS

Interest in sales contracts in the catfish industry increased in the late 1990s and early 2000s as a result of increased import pressures and lower product prices. The study uses survey data fitted to a probit model to examine the motivations for contracting sales, and whether farm size is an important determinant of sales contracts usage. The article concludes that Arkansas catfish farmers with large acreages and therefore large volumes of production have a high probability of utilizing contracts to handle their sales but not necessarily with privately-owned independent processors. The farmers are not motivated to engage in sales contracts by reduction in income or price risks. They are motivated by production and management issues, which appear consistent with reductions in transactions costs relating to asset specificity and quality measurement as the reason for contracting.     

Farmed fish to supermarket: Testing for price leadership and price transmission in the salmon supply chain

In this article, we measure the extent of price transmission and test price leadership in the salmon supply chain. The data represent monthly observations (2005–2014) on export price of fresh salmon from Norway and on retail prices for a variety of salmon products in France and United Kingdom. The contribution is to use a Johansen bivariate time-series approach to quantify the degree of price transmission on a broader set of consumer salmon products than has been previously studied. Of the original 17 retail products examined only 8 cointegrate with export prices. Of these, all but one reject a null of full price transmission and all show price causality from export to retail level. Price transmission to retail prices decreases, as more processing is involved and increases for packaged salmon products compared to salmon sold in the fresh fish counter.     

The Behavior of Operating Earnings in the Norwegian Salmon Farming Industry

It is well known that salmon aquaculture is a cyclical industry with substantial price volatility. However, limited attention has been given to the economic performance of the firms in the industry or their valuation. In this article we look closer at earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) in the Norwegian salmon farming industry. This is among the most common accounting measures of firm performance, and it is also used extensively in firm valuations. We find that the components of earnings have different time series behavior. Our empirical analysis shows that earnings from the Norwegian salmon farming industry can be characterized as a random walk. However, earnings/kg of fish sold is a more predictable variable and is mean reverting with clear cycles.     

THE VALUE OF INFORMATION IN SALMON FARMING. HARVESTING THE RIGHT FISH AT THE RIGHT TIME

Research on management practices in fish farming has traditionally focused on two topics: production planning and forecasting of prices. This article combines these two areas of research, and illustrates how information on price patterns can change production plans, and hence increase the value of the farm enterprise. It will present a model farm and illustrate, with different levels of price information, how information on future prices alters the original production plan and hence creates extra value for the farmer. Although the specifics and empirical application of the paper are on salmon and salmon farming, the ideas and general results could be applied to all farmed species.     

From Atlantic to Pacific: Price links in the US wild and farmed salmon market

Abstract

In 1990, the US International Trade Commission stated that Atlantic and Pacific salmon species did not share a substitute relationship in any of the product forms. This result is contrary to economic demand studies that show a substitute relationship for Atlantic and Pacific salmon species. Time‐series results reported in this paper are consistent with the earlier demand studies and show evidence of an equilibrium price system that includes Atlantic, chinook and coho salmon species for the US market. For these three salmon species a substitute relationship cannot be rejected. However, we observe only weak price links across the three different species in the different US regional markets.     

Comparative economic performance and carbon footprint of two farming models for producing Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar): Land-based closed containment system in freshwater and open net pen in seawater

Ocean net pen production of Atlantic salmon is approaching 2 million metric tons (MT) annually and has proven to be cost- and energy-efficient. Recently, with technology improvements, freshwater aquaculture of Atlantic salmon from eggs to harvestable size of 4–5 kg in land-based closed containment (LBCC) water recirculating aquaculture systems (RAS) has been demonstrated as a viable production technology. Land-based, closed containment water recirculating aquaculture systems technology offers the ability to fully control the rearing environment and provides flexibility in locating a production facility close to the market and on sites where cost of land and power are competitive. This flexibility offers distinct advantages over Atlantic salmon produced in open net pen systems, which is dependent on access to suitable coastal waters and a relatively long transport distance to supply the US market. Consequently, in this paper we present an analysis of the investment needed, the production cost, the profitability and the carbon footprint of producing 3300 MT of head-on gutted (HOG) Atlantic salmon from eggs to US market (wholesale) using two different production systems—LBCC-RAS technology and open net pen (ONP) technology using enterprise budget analysis and carbon footprint with the LCA method. In our analysis we compare the traditional open net pen production system in Norway and a model freshwater LBCC-RAS facility in the US. The model ONP is small compared to the most ONP systems in Norway, but the LBCC-RAS is large compared to any existing LBCC-RAS for Atlantic salmon. The results need to be interpreted with this in mind. Results of the financial analysis indicate that the total production costs for two systems are relatively similar, with LBCC-RAS only 10% higher than the ONP system on a head-on gutted basis (5.60 US$/kg versus 5.08 US$/kg, respectively). Without interest and depreciation, the two production systems have an almost equal operating cost (4.30 US$/kg for ONP versus 4.37 US$/kg for LBCC-RAS). Capital costs of the two systems are not similar for the same 3300 MT of head-on gutted salmon. The capital cost of the LBCC-RAS model system is approximately 54,000,000 US$ and the capital cost of the ONP system is approximately 30,000,000 US$, a difference of 80%. However, the LBCC-RAS model system selling salmon at a 30% price premium is comparatively as profitable as the ONP model system (profit margin of 18% versus 24%, respectively), even though its 15-year net present value is negative and its return on investment is lower than ONP system (9% versus 18%, respectively). The results of the carbon footprint analysis confirmed that production of feed is the dominating climate aspect for both production methods, but also showed that energy source and transport methods are important. It was shown that fresh salmon produced in LBCC-RAS systems close to a US market that use an average US electricity mix have a much lower carbon footprint than fresh salmon produced in Norway in ONP systems shipped to the same market by airfreight, 7.41 versus 15.22 kg CO₂eq/kg salmon HOG, respectively. When comparing the carbon footprint of production-only, the LBCC-RAS-produced salmon has a carbon footprint that is double that of the ONP-produced salmon, 7.01 versus 3.39 kg CO₂eq/kg salmon live-weight, respectively.     

Aquaculture and international trade

Abstract

In contrast to the stabilization or decline of wild fishery harvests, aquaculture's contribution to the world fish supply is steadily increasing. Aquaculture has begun to have a major influence on the trade of export‐orientated species such as salmon and shrimp. This paper reviews the role of aquaculture in international trade and the research which has been conducted to examine its influence. Despite the growing significance of aquaculture on international trade, especially for shrimp and salmon, formal analysis of the shrimp trade is sparse, only moderate for salmon, and essentially nonexistent for other species. This paper also presents specific examples of how aquaculture has played an important role in international trade. These include an examination of: (1) the influence of shrimp aquaculture and trade on the development of a shrimp futures contract; and (2) the countervailing duty and antidumping case against the Norwegian farmed salmon industry.     

Evidence for spatial coherence in time trends of marine life history traits of Atlantic salmon in the North Atlantic

A hierarchical Bayesian life cycle model is presented that considers spatial covariation of marine life history traits of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) populations in the North Atlantic. The model is based on a collective analysis of the dynamics of 13 stock units (SUs) from two continental stock groups (CSGs) in North America and Southern Europe in a single hierarchical model over the period 1971–2014. The model sets up a new assessment framework for Atlantic salmon stocks. It also provides a framework to investigate the drivers of changes in Atlantic salmon population dynamics including disentangling the effects of fisheries from those of environmental factors in a hierarchy of spatial scales. It is used to test the hypothesis of a strong spatial synchrony in marine life history dynamics of Atlantic salmon populations. The trends in two key parameters associated with the early marine phase of the life cycle are estimated: (i) the marine survival during the first summer–autumn spent at sea and (ii) the proportion of fish maturing after the first winter at sea. The results provide evidence of a decline in the marine survival together with an increase in the proportion of fish that mature after the first winter at sea, common to all SUs. Our results show an increased coherence in the covariations of trends in these two marine life history traits related to geographic proximity of SUs which support the hypothesis of a coherent response of geographically proximate Atlantic salmon populations that likely share similar migration routes.