Forecasting monthly catfish (Ictalurus punctatus.) pond bank and feed prices |
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| Authors: | Mohammad R Hasan Carole R Engle |
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| Institution: | 1. Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA, USA;2. Department of Aquaculture and Fisheries, University of Arkansas at Pine Bluff (UAPB), Pine Bluff, AR, USA;3. Engle-Stone Aquatic$LLC, Strasburg, VA, USA |
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| Abstract: | Volatility in catfish pond bank and feed prices lead to profit uncertainty in the catfish industry. Analysis of the factors that affect those prices and development of a forecasting model would provide guidance to catfish farm managers. Error-correction models (ECM) based on cointegrating relationships among variables were specified following development of a single-equation ARIMAX model. Factors identified as those that influence catfish price were: lagged value of catfish, feed and substitute product prices, while those that influenced feed price were: lagged value of feed, corn and soybean prices. ECM estimates implied that fish price adjusts approximately 6% and feed price 22% to the long-run equilibrium in 1?month. The analysis showed that it takes less than 17?months and 5?months to correct for long-run disequilibrium for catfish and feed prices, respectively. The ARIMAX model demonstrated a better fit for both in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting for catfish price and had better out-of-sample predictive ability for feed prices. |
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| Keywords: | ARIMAX catfish price ECM feed price forecasting price volatility |
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