Analysis of Catfish Pricing and Market Dynamics: The Role of Imported Catfish

The producer price of catfish is becoming relatively unstable compared to the trend in previous years, necessitating the need for a complete analysis of catfish pricing and market dynamics. An understanding of the price determination mechanisms in the catfish market and the relationships between producer price, domestic processed price, and import price are important because price variability can result in significant financial losses to the domestic catfish industry. This study used a cointegration procedure to examine the long-run relationships between domestic prices of catfish and imported price. Results from unit root and cointegration tests suggest that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between pairs of these prices. Results from Granger causality tests and error-correction model estimations suggest that the market for domestic frozen fillets plays a significant role in the price determination of imported catfish. A similar relationship is found between producer price and frozen fillet price. Some significant measures that were estimated include a frozen fillet-producer long-run price transmission elasticity of 0.162, a frozen fillet-imported fillet long-run price transmission elasticity of 3.56, and a producer-frozen fillet short-run price transmission elasticity of 0.322. High levels of fillet prices appear to have influenced the level of catfish imports. As long as distributors and restauranteurs do not see a basis for paying a premium for U.S. catfish products, they will continue to purchase the lower-priced imported catfish and consequently imports will continue to increase.     

Assessing price integration and trade policy in the U.S. catfish market

In 2003, the United States adopted anti-dumping tariffs for Vietnamese catfish products entering the country. This study examines how these tariffs have impacted the price relationship between domestically produced and imported catfish products. Cointegration tests confirm a long-run price relationship between domestic and imported catfish, which has persisted despite the anti-dumping tariffs. However, imports are composed of catfish from Vietnam and other countries, with only the former subjected to tariffs. Results from vector error correction models suggest that Vietnamese catfish prices do not significantly influence domestic prices. Conversely, the price of catfish from countries other than Vietnam continues to impact prices received by domestic catfish farmers and processors. The domestic catfish industry is still affected by lower-priced imports from countries other than Vietnam, although some of these may be transshipments that truly originate in Vietnam. This research methodology could be adapted to investigate trade and price interactions among other aquacultured species, which will become increasingly important as global aquaculture expands.     

Forecast accuracy of abalone producer prices by shell size in the Republic of Korea: Modified Diebold–Mariano tests of selected autoregressive models

ABSTRACT

This study provides abalone producers and consumers with price forecasting models exhibiting better performance for five classes of abalone prices based on shell size to help farmers predict abalone shipments and enhance the economic activity of consumers. First, the autoregressive-moving average (ARMA) models of abalone producer prices based on information criteria are selected. Second, the best ARMA model using out-of-sample data based on the mean squared error and mean absolute error is determined. Finally, this study compares the predictive accuracy of the better ARMA model and other ARMA models, using a modified Diebold–Mariano test. Higher forecasting accuracy is exhibited by the AR (1,3) model for 8 and 10 abalones per kilogram, the ARMA (1,0) and ARMA [(3),(1)] models for 13 abalones per kilogram, the ARMA (1,0) and ARMA [(1),(2)] models for 15 abalones per kilogram, and the ARMA (1,0) and ARMA (0,1) models for 20 abalones per kilogram.     

The spot-forward relationship in the Atlantic salmon market

This study examines the Fish Pool salmon futures contract with respect to how well the market performs in terms of the futures price being an unbiased estimator of the spot price and whether the market provides a price discovery function. Using data for 2006–2014 and with futures prices with maturities up to 6 months we find that spot and lagged futures prices are cointegrated and that the futures price provides an unbiased estimate of the spot price. We also find that, with the exception of the front month, that the causality is one-directional. The spot prices lead futures prices between 1–6 months maturity. Hence, while the spot and lagged futures prices are unbiased estimates, we do not find support for the hypothesis that futures prices provide a price discovery function. Rather, it seems that innovations in the spot price influence futures prices. This finding is not uncommon in new and immature futures contracts markets. Hence, the salmon futures market is still immature and has not yet reached the stage where futures prices are able to predict future spot prices.     

修正大豆期现货价格的长短期关系：一个结构突变理论的应用

本文应用z—A方法和Perron方法等结构突变检验以及Gregory—Hansen变结构协整方法,对大豆期货和现货价格之间是否存在长短期均衡关系进行重新研究。研究发现。样本期内大豆期货和现货均发生了两次结构突变。通过考虑是否发生结构突变的对比分析表明,未考虑结构突变时大豆期现货不存在协整关系,考虑结构突变时二者则存在长期均衡关系和短期动态调整关系;考虑结构突变向量的误差修正模型（EcM）的预测精度比未考虑结构突变时高出5．5％,充分证实了结构突变在处理时间序列数据时的必要性和有效性。     

Development of aquaculture financial planning system

Abstract

Economically efficient feeding levels in intensively stocked ponds might be below minimum biological feeding requirements under adverse market conditions. A catfish production function that estimated relationships between yield and stocking and feeding rates was used as the basis for estimating production relationships. Feed price boundaries were developed that allowed the feeding rate to exceed the minimum biological level but still reflected economically efficient rates over a range of catfish prices and producer risk preferences. At higher stocking densities (20,000/ha), the feed price upper bound is lower than at lower stocking densities. Producers stocking at higher rates will be less likely to maximize profit and meet minimum biological feeding requirements as feed price increases than those producers stocking at lower rates. However, if feed prices exceed the upper bounds calculated in this paper, producers should engage in feeding only at levels necessary to meet farm financial and cash flow obligations until such time as the feed price decreases.     

Price integration in the farmed and wild fish markets in Uganda

This paper looks at price integration in the aquaculture and wild-harvested African catfish market channels in Uganda. The issue of integration between the two market channels is important because African catfish has become an important traded species in Uganda with exports to regional markets rising even faster than production, yet limited research has been undertaken to understand price formation in the supply chain. The analysis draws on monthly price data from January 2006 to August 2013, and applies threshold autoregressive approaches to test for the existence of a long-run relationship and price asymmetry and to determine the time path needed for shocks to be transmitted from one market channel to the other. The results show that, over the studied period prices in both market channels are linked in the long-run, implying that farm-raised catfish forms part of the same market as wild-harvested catfish in the country. The findings have strong implications for aquaculture producers and artisanal fishers as they can serve as a basis for more efficient farm management and marketing decisions.     

DEMAND FOR AQUACULTURE PRODUCTS IN TAIWAN: AN APPLICATION OF THE GENERALIZED MODEL

ABSTRACT

Policy decisions on what aquaculture products to develop require information on consumer demand for cultured species. However, information on the structure of demand for aquaculture products is limited and what few studies there are in Taiwan, where aquaculture is a major industry, suffer from methodological problems. To clear up some of these problems, we used modified nonnested testing techniques and performance forecasting to determine which generalized models could best estimate the demand for Taiwanese aquaculture products. The results of modified nonnested testing of the aquaculture demand system showed that prices predetermined and quantities predetermined could be used to estimate demand. The generalized ordinary demand model was able to better forecast performance than the generalized inverse demand model. We used the likelihood ratio test to discriminate among the four competing models for the generalized ordinary model; the AIDS model could be more suitably applied to the data. A more general model that is able to incorporate different dynamic structures (partial adjustment, first autoregressive, and static). This general framework is applied to the AIDS model. The first autoregressive AIDS model we used to calculate the own and cross-price elasticities for milkfish, tilapia, shrimp, shellfish, and carps found that price elasticities varied across fish type, that some products had high long-run own price elasticities, and that the demand for aquaculture products was largely determined by inertia.     

Economics of Intensively Aerated Catfish Ponds

The US catfish industry is evolving by adopting production‐intensifying practices that enhance productivity. Catfish producers have increased aeration rates over time, and some now use intensive rates of aeration (>9.33 kW/ha). Costs and production performance were monitored at commercial catfish farms using high levels of aeration (11.2–18.7 kW/ha) in Alabama, Arkansas, and Mississippi. A multivariate‐cluster analysis was used to identify four different management clusters of intensively aerated commercial catfish farms based on stocking density, size of fingerlings at stocking, and feed conversion ratios (FCR). Breakeven prices of hybrid catfish raised in intensively aerated pond systems were estimated to range from $1.86/kg to $2.17/kg, with the lowest costs associated with the second greatest level of production intensity. The two medium‐intensity clusters generated sufficiently high revenues for long‐term profitability. However, the least‐intensive and the most‐intensive clusters were economically feasible only when catfish and feed prices were closer to less probable market prices. Feed price, FCR, and yield contributed the most to downside risk. Intensive aeration in catfish ponds, up to the levels analyzed in this study, appears to be economically feasible under the medium‐intensity management strategies identified in this analysis.     

Costs and Risk of Catfish Split‐pond Systems

Split ponds are recently developed pond‐based aquaculture systems that allow intensification of catfish aquaculture. Successful industry‐wide adoption of newly developing technologies like split‐pond systems will depend upon their productivity and cost efficiencies. Costs and production performance of the following three split‐pond design scenarios were monitored in Arkansas and Mississippi: (1) research design developed at the Thad Cochran National Warmwater Aquaculture Center, Stoneville, Mississippi; (2) waterwheel design tested on commercial catfish ponds; and (3) screw‐pump design tested on commercial catfish ponds. An economic engineering approach using standard enterprise budget analysis was used to develop estimates of breakeven prices (BEPs) ($/kg) for producing foodsize hybrid catfish (♂Ictalurus furcatus × ♀Ictalurus punctatus) for each scenario. Estimates of BEPs of hybrid catfish raised in split ponds ranged from $1.72 to $2.05/kg. The cost of catfish production in split ponds was sensitive to yield, fish prices, and feed prices. Annual net cash flows from both commercial split‐pond systems were high and sufficient to make the investment profitable in the long run. Feed price, feed conversion ratio, and yield contributed the most to downside risk of split ponds.     

Price volatility dynamics in aquaculture fish markets

Abstract

In this paper, a time-varying student-t copula is used to capture information on price volatility dependence in the short-, medium-, and long-run horizon in the US market for frozen and fresh salmon, trout, tilapia and catfish. Using monthly data from July 1992 to March 2017, the volatility dynamics for these aquaculture species are assessed. The analysis allows indicating significant differences in the volatility relationships, depending on time-frequency. While short-run volatility has limited dependency, there is significant dependency in both the medium- and long-run, indicating that market integration is stronger in the long-run. The information is particularly important to buyers and producers utilizing the futures markets, as contracts are typically traded using a set of frequencies, and may help them manage and reduce price risk.     

The Effect of Hybrid Catfish Fingerling Prices on the Relative Profitability of Hybrid Channel Catfish

Previous studies have indicated that the price premium charged for hybrid catfish fingerlings may be a significant factor in the adoption and profitability of hybrid catfish production. An enterprise budgeting simulation analysis was developed to compare costs, risk, and effect of hybrid fingerling costs. Feed, fingerling, and total costs ($/ha and $/kg) were highest for hybrid catfish production, intermediate for NWAC‐103, and lowest for normal channel catfish production. Net returns were highest for hybrid catfish production, but breakeven prices were also highest. Risk analysis showed that downside risk (risk of losing money) was higher for hybrid production for all farm sizes. Risk‐averse farmers would not select hybrid catfish at the mean fingerling values used in the analysis. However, at hybrid fingerling prices less than $0.0081/cm, hybrid catfish production was superior in profitability and breakeven cost of production. Thus, for hybrid catfish production to be preferred economically to normal channel catfish, the price premium for hybrid catfish fingerlings can be no more than 84% ($0.0037/cm) above that of normal channel catfish fingerlings and 57% ($0.0025/cm) above that of NWAC‐103 fingerling prices.     

Costs of Winter Feeding of Channel‐blue (♀ Ictalurus punctatus × ♂ Ictalurus furcatus) Hybrid Catfish

Previous research has shown that winter feeding is beneficial in preventing weight loss and maintaining catfish health. Although several studies suggest the importance of winter feeding of channel catfish, Ictalurus punctatus, less is known about optimal winter feeding strategies for channel‐blue hybrid catfish (♀ Ictalurus punctatus × ♂ Ictalurus furcatus). Three winter feeding treatments (unfed, fed daily, and fed based on temperature‐threshold feeding) were each assigned randomly to four replicate 0.10‐ha earthen ponds. All ponds were stocked with large channel‐blue hybrid catfish (0.96 ± 0.40 kg) at the rate of 3409 kg/ha and fed using a slow‐sink 28% protein pelleted feed. The two feeding treatments showed significantly greater mean weight at harvest, gross yield, and growth rates than the unfed fish after the 113‐d winter trial. Partial budget analysis indicated that additional costs incurred from the additional feed, fuel, and labor costs over the winter in fed treatments offset the additional revenue from daily winter feeding. However, in the temperature‐threshold feeding treatment, additional costs were similar to additional revenues when 10‐yr average prices were used. Results were sensitive to feed prices and spring catfish prices with positive net benefits from winter feeding at fish prices above $1.58/kg and feed prices below $0.286/kg.     

A dynamic almost ideal demand model for US catfish

Abstract

The study applies a dynamic model of the almost ideal demand system to derive long‐run estimates of demand for catfish products. Adjustment coefficients towards long‐run equilibrium for purchasers of catfish are estimated. The hypothesis that catfish buyers fully adjust to changes in real price and expenditure instantaneously is rejected. Following a deviation from equilibrium, about 16% of the adjustment takes place instantaneously while full adjustment is completed within the subsequent two‐month period. Purchasers of catfish adjust fairly quickly to a new equilibrium after disequilibrium movements suggesting a low cost of adjustment. Elasticity estimates obtained from the model indicate that the dynamic model is well behaved, with negative own‐price effects in the compensated and uncompensated form. In the uncompensated form whole fish is found to be less own‐price inelastic while fillet is found to be own‐price elastic. The sensitive nature of the products to changes in own prices suggests the need for processors to make whole fish and fillets more price‐competitive through efficient production and marketing processes. Expenditure elasticities obtained from the model are also consistent with economic theory.     

Feed Formulation Using Linear Programming for Fry of Catfish,Milkfish, Tilapia,Asian Sea Bass,and Grouper in India

Nutritional profiles of 25 feed ingredients available in India were selected and compiled. Their costs were ascertained from Cochin (SW), Tuticorin (SE), and Bhubaneswar (NW), where fish/shrimp farming is traditionally practiced. Least-cost feed formulations (using the linprog toolbox in Matlab software) were attempted for catfish, milkfish, tilapia, and grouper fry specifying levels of four critical limits: Ca/P ratio, digestible energy (DE), 10 amino acid levels (where data was available), and 10 ingredients, totaling 26 constraining limits to the model. Feeds formulated for catfish fry cost US$0.066 kg^?1 at Bhubaneswar, US$0.117 kg^?1 at Tuticorin, and US$0.153 kg^?1 at Cochin, with poultry by-product meal and hydrolyzed feather meal as the major ingredients; limiting amino acids in these feeds were methionine and phenylalanine. Feeds formulated for milkfish fry cost US$0.110 kg^?1 at Cochin, US$0.108 kg^?1 at Tuticorin, and US$0.072 kg^?1 at Bhubaneswar; the limiting amino acids in this case were histidine and threonine. The cost of feeds for tilapia fry was US$0.207 kg^?1 at Cochin, US$0.369 kg^?1 at Tuticorin, and US$ 0.114 kg^?1 at Bhubaneswar; the limiting amino acid was methionine. Feed formulae for fry of Asian sea bass had an LP solution containing only five ingredients for all three places. The feed formula was the same for Cochin and Bhubaneswar market prices, and the total cost of ingredients was US$0.274 kg^?1 and US$0.142 kg^?1, respectively. At Tuticorin market prices, the feed formula cost was US$0.397 kg^?1. The feed formulae for grouper fry at Bhubaneswar and Tuticorin market prices had the same three ingredients costing US$0.114 kg^?1 and US$0.321 kg^?1, respectively, whereas feed formula for Cochin market price consisted of four ingredients costing US$0.280 kg^?1.     

THE VALUE OF INFORMATION IN SALMON FARMING. HARVESTING THE RIGHT FISH AT THE RIGHT TIME

Research on management practices in fish farming has traditionally focused on two topics: production planning and forecasting of prices. This article combines these two areas of research, and illustrates how information on price patterns can change production plans, and hence increase the value of the farm enterprise. It will present a model farm and illustrate, with different levels of price information, how information on future prices alters the original production plan and hence creates extra value for the farmer. Although the specifics and empirical application of the paper are on salmon and salmon farming, the ideas and general results could be applied to all farmed species.     

A LATENT CLASS MODEL FOR ANALYZING PREFERENCES FOR CATFISH

ABSTRACT

Using a latent class model of structural heterogeneity in the multinomial logit framework, this study examined catfish preferences of Arkansas restaurateurs from stated choice data. The results suggest two latent classes of restaurateurs that are fairly distinct and have some degree of overlap. Managers in both classes are sensitive to prices and prefer catfish products that have mild flavor and soft texture. When preference for dryness, flavor and texture are assumed equal for both classes, one class becomes very sensitive to price but unconcerned with color while the other class becomes insensitive to price but very concerned with color.     

Can the polyculture with South American catfish improve the feeding efficiency of rainbow trout culture?

The objective of this study was to determine if the South American catfish (Rhamdia quelen) is suitable to be farmed in polyculture with rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) in intensive systems during the juvenile phase to maximize feed efficiency. Juveniles of rainbow trout (3.94?±?0.11 g) and South American catfish (2.07?±?0.04 g) were distributed in 16 tanks (100 L) with continuous water renewal at the density of 50 fish/tank. The experimental design was completely randomized with four treatments (proportions between species) and four replicates. The treatments were 100% trout (100T), 70% trout and 30% catfish (70T30C), 50% trout and 50% catfish (50T50C), and 100% catfish (100C). Fish were fed twice daily with pelleted commercial feed (45% crude protein) during an experimental period of 56 days. No feed was provided for the catfish in polyculture. The weight gained by the trout was higher in polyculture. Fish survival did not differ among the treatments. The average survival of the trout in all tanks was 99.6?±?1.0%, while the survival of the South American catfish was 97.9?±?2.7%. The total feed conversion ratio was lower in the 70T30J treatment, followed by the 100T treatment. Rainbow trout and South American catfish are compatible species for farming together in the first phase of their juvenile development. The different spaces occupied by these species inside tanks probably prevent competition or agonistic behavior. Catfish eat the non-ingested leftover diet from the trout, which improves feed conversion and increases sustainability.     

COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGES OF THE U.S. FARM-RAISED CATFISH INDUSTRY: A CROSS-REGIONAL ANALYSIS

Policy analysis matrices are developed and used to derive domestic resource cost coefficients for different catfish farm production regions in the United States. The results show that U.S. catfish producers were losing their comparative advantage positions during the study period considered. An import tariff improves the industry's comparative advantage position, but may not increase its market profitability. Higher efficiency in feed usage, and higher market prices paid to producers through promotional efforts are essential to the U.S. catfish industry.     

Effects of Periodic Feed Deprivation on Growth, Feed Efficiency, Processing Yield, and Body Composition of Channel Catfish Ictalurus punctatus

Two studies were conducted in 110‐L flow‐through aquaria and 0.4‐ha ponds to evaluate effects of periodic feed deprivation on the growth performance of channel catfish Ictalurus punctatus. Fish were deprived of feed 0, 1, 2, or 3 consecutive d/wk, l d per 5‐d period, or 3 consecutive d per 10‐d period and fed to satiation on days fish were fed. In Experiment 1, fish fed less frequently than daily consumed significantly less feed (over the experimental period) and gained significantly less weight than fish fed daily, except that feed consumption of fish deprived of feed 1 d/wk was not significantly different from that of fish fed daily. Compared with fish fed daily, fish deprived of feed 2 d/wk had significantly lower feed conversion ratio (FCR). Visceral fat of fish deprived of feed 1 or 2 d/wk was similar to that of fish fed daily, but fish deprived of feed for longer periods had significantly lower visceral fat than fish fed daily. Regression analysis indicated that feed consumption, weight gain, and visceral fat increased linearly as the number of days that fish were fed increased. In Experiment 2, there were no significant differences in the amount of feed fed between fish deprived of feed 1 d/wk and those fed daily. Net production of fish deprived of feed 1 or 2 d/wk or 1 d per 5‐d period was not significantly different from that of fish fed daily, but fish deprived of feed for longer periods had significantly lower net production than fish fed daily. Visceral fat of fish deprived of feed 1 d/wk or 1 d per 5‐d period was similar to that of fish fed daily, but fish on other treatments had significantly lower visceral fat than fish fed daily. Regression analysis showed that as the number of days fed increased the amount of feed fed and net production increased quadratically. Feed conversion ratio, carcass yield, visceral fat, and fillet fat increased, while fillet moisture decreased linearly as the number of days fed increased. Although feeding less frequently than daily may improve feed efficiency, and fish deprived of feed may demonstrate compensatory growth when a full feeding regime is resumed, it may be difficult to provide enough feed to satiate all size‐classes of fish under a multiple‐batch cropping system without causing water quality problems. Under normal economic conditions, fish should be fed daily to apparent satiation without waste and without causing water quality problems. However, during periods of unfavorable economic conditions, channel catfish raised from advanced fingerlings to market size may be fed less frequently than daily to reduce production cost. Results from the present study indicated that feeding channel catfish to satiation 5 or 6 d/wk (not feeding on one or two weekend days) could provide some benefits in reducing production cost through reduced feed and labor costs for food‐sized channel catfish during periods of low fish prices and high feed prices.