Analysis of Catfish Pricing and Market Dynamics: The Role of Imported Catfish

The producer price of catfish is becoming relatively unstable compared to the trend in previous years, necessitating the need for a complete analysis of catfish pricing and market dynamics. An understanding of the price determination mechanisms in the catfish market and the relationships between producer price, domestic processed price, and import price are important because price variability can result in significant financial losses to the domestic catfish industry. This study used a cointegration procedure to examine the long-run relationships between domestic prices of catfish and imported price. Results from unit root and cointegration tests suggest that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between pairs of these prices. Results from Granger causality tests and error-correction model estimations suggest that the market for domestic frozen fillets plays a significant role in the price determination of imported catfish. A similar relationship is found between producer price and frozen fillet price. Some significant measures that were estimated include a frozen fillet-producer long-run price transmission elasticity of 0.162, a frozen fillet-imported fillet long-run price transmission elasticity of 3.56, and a producer-frozen fillet short-run price transmission elasticity of 0.322. High levels of fillet prices appear to have influenced the level of catfish imports. As long as distributors and restauranteurs do not see a basis for paying a premium for U.S. catfish products, they will continue to purchase the lower-priced imported catfish and consequently imports will continue to increase.     

DETERMINING THE IMPACT OF CRAWFISH IMPORTS ON U.S. DOMESTIC PRICES

The study identifies the linkage between imports and the domestic price of crawfish. The results show a simultaneous increase in imports and domestic prices of crawfish while showing a negative relationship between domestic landings and price. Each model shows that there is a seasonality effect on the domestic price of crawfish. The study also shows that increases in the domestic supplies of shrimp, tilapia, and clams generated increases in the domestic crawfish price, while increases in imported and domestic supplies of beef and imported supplies of pork decreased the domestic crawfish price.     

PERCEPTIONS OF RISK AND RISK MANAGEMENT IN VIETNAMESE CATFISH FARMING: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY

Although Vietnamese catfish farming has grown at a rapid rate in recent years, the industry has also faced many problems that affect its sustainability. This paper explores the perceptions of catfish farmers regarding risk and risk management strategies in their production activities. The relationships between farm and farmer socioeconomic characteristics and perceptions of risk and risk management are also examined. Data for the study were collected in 2008 from a sample of 261 catfish farmers in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam using a questionnaire survey. The results show that, in general, price and production risks were perceived as the most significant risks. Farm management and technical measures were perceived to be more effective than other kinds of risk management strategies in risk reduction. Although price risks were rated as important, price risk management strategies were not perceived as important measures for risk mitigation. The results of the study are discussed to identify the implications for various industry stakeholders, including policymakers, processors, advisors, and developers of new risk management strategies.     

Are farmed European seabass (Dicentrarchus labrax) prices in European Union markets affected by Turkish exports of farmed European seabass?

Abstract

Often, increases in farmed seabass and seabream production surpluses from Turkey and Greece have been blamed to lead to price declines and aquaculture sector crises. In this study, we investigate whether Turkish exports of farmed European seabass affect prices of European Union (EU) farmed European seabass. This is done by examining the existence of market integration between the prices of Turkish exports of farmed European seabass into the EU and the prices of farmed European seabass commercialized in wholesale markets in Barcelona, Madrid and Paris. Market integration and competition studies in fisheries and aquaculture products have generally focused on analyzing substitutability between species and between wild and farmed conspecifics. Few studies have focused on analyzing market integration between different geographic areas. Market integration analyses between different geographic areas have proven useful in anti-dumping investigations. Results show the lack of market integration between EU imports of Turkish farmed European seabass and main EU wholesale markets; in other words, farmed European seabass prices in EU markets do not seem to be affected by export prices of Turkish farmed seabass.     

Price integration in the farmed and wild fish markets in Uganda

This paper looks at price integration in the aquaculture and wild-harvested African catfish market channels in Uganda. The issue of integration between the two market channels is important because African catfish has become an important traded species in Uganda with exports to regional markets rising even faster than production, yet limited research has been undertaken to understand price formation in the supply chain. The analysis draws on monthly price data from January 2006 to August 2013, and applies threshold autoregressive approaches to test for the existence of a long-run relationship and price asymmetry and to determine the time path needed for shocks to be transmitted from one market channel to the other. The results show that, over the studied period prices in both market channels are linked in the long-run, implying that farm-raised catfish forms part of the same market as wild-harvested catfish in the country. The findings have strong implications for aquaculture producers and artisanal fishers as they can serve as a basis for more efficient farm management and marketing decisions.     

Forecasting monthly catfish (Ictalurus punctatus.) pond bank and feed prices

Volatility in catfish pond bank and feed prices lead to profit uncertainty in the catfish industry. Analysis of the factors that affect those prices and development of a forecasting model would provide guidance to catfish farm managers. Error-correction models (ECM) based on cointegrating relationships among variables were specified following development of a single-equation ARIMAX model. Factors identified as those that influence catfish price were: lagged value of catfish, feed and substitute product prices, while those that influenced feed price were: lagged value of feed, corn and soybean prices. ECM estimates implied that fish price adjusts approximately 6% and feed price 22% to the long-run equilibrium in 1?month. The analysis showed that it takes less than 17?months and 5?months to correct for long-run disequilibrium for catfish and feed prices, respectively. The ARIMAX model demonstrated a better fit for both in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting for catfish price and had better out-of-sample predictive ability for feed prices.     

THE RUSSIAN SEAFOOD REVOLUTION: SHIFTING CONSUMPTION TOWARDS AQUACULTURE PRODUCTS

A food consumption revolution is taking place in Russia. After decades of severe constraints on food consumption options under the communist regime Russian consumers are now adopting new food products—including seafood products – at a high pace. Since Russian consumers have previously had very limited seafood consumption choices, the market can be seen as an interesting laboratory for investigating consumer responses to products that have previously not been available. Among imported seafood products are both wild and farmed species. Furthermore, Russian imports include both traditional species such as herring, and ‘new’ species such as pangasius. We analyze market integration among seafood products using Russian monthly import prices from 2002 to 2007 on several products, such as herring, salmonids and pangasius. We find that pangasius compete in the white fish segment, and is a price leader. In the salmonids market, farmed salmon trout appears to be the price leader, both in the fresh and frozen market segment.     

A LATENT CLASS MODEL FOR ANALYZING PREFERENCES FOR CATFISH

ABSTRACT

Using a latent class model of structural heterogeneity in the multinomial logit framework, this study examined catfish preferences of Arkansas restaurateurs from stated choice data. The results suggest two latent classes of restaurateurs that are fairly distinct and have some degree of overlap. Managers in both classes are sensitive to prices and prefer catfish products that have mild flavor and soft texture. When preference for dryness, flavor and texture are assumed equal for both classes, one class becomes very sensitive to price but unconcerned with color while the other class becomes insensitive to price but very concerned with color.     

Predicting the price of Vietnamese shrimp products exported to the US market using machine learning

Accurately predicting the price of exported fishery products is an important task for fisheries because it will enable market trends to be determined, leading to the development of high-quality fishery products. In this study, we predicted prices in selected base periods (2, 3, 6, and 12 months) to investigate how historical data influenced the Vietnamese export price. A dataset (from May 1995 to May 2019) was collected from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). We initially hypothesized that the dependent variable, Vietnamese export price, was affected by 33 independent variables, but ultimately used 15 key variables, which were chosen on the basis of Akaike information criterion (AIC) to train the models. A tree-based machine learning technique, including the random forest and gradient boosting tree algorithms, was applied for predictions. It was found that the random forest algorithm performed well for historical data for periods of more than 6 months, while the gradient boosting tree algorithm was better over short durations of less than 6 months.

     

CHINA'S ACCESSION TO THE WTO AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE FISHERY AND AQUACULTURE SECTOR

ABSTRACT

This paper reviews recent developments in China's fishery and aquaculture sectors, as well as the policies affecting rural households in general and fisheries households in particular. It explores how China's policies may change as a result of the nation joining the World Trade Organization (WTO) in December 2001 and the likely impacts of these changes on China's fishery and aquaculture sector. It was found that the domestic fish markets are gradually integrating, suggesting that fish price shifts in one area will affect prices in most parts of the country. It was also found that, compared with the prices of other agricultural commodities, the domestic prices of most aquatic products are well below world prices. This suggests that exports of aquatic products would be able to expand now that the nation has joined the WTO and that fishers would gain from this move.     

A dynamic almost ideal demand model for US catfish

Abstract

The study applies a dynamic model of the almost ideal demand system to derive long‐run estimates of demand for catfish products. Adjustment coefficients towards long‐run equilibrium for purchasers of catfish are estimated. The hypothesis that catfish buyers fully adjust to changes in real price and expenditure instantaneously is rejected. Following a deviation from equilibrium, about 16% of the adjustment takes place instantaneously while full adjustment is completed within the subsequent two‐month period. Purchasers of catfish adjust fairly quickly to a new equilibrium after disequilibrium movements suggesting a low cost of adjustment. Elasticity estimates obtained from the model indicate that the dynamic model is well behaved, with negative own‐price effects in the compensated and uncompensated form. In the uncompensated form whole fish is found to be less own‐price inelastic while fillet is found to be own‐price elastic. The sensitive nature of the products to changes in own prices suggests the need for processors to make whole fish and fillets more price‐competitive through efficient production and marketing processes. Expenditure elasticities obtained from the model are also consistent with economic theory.     

The Effect of Hybrid Catfish Fingerling Prices on the Relative Profitability of Hybrid Channel Catfish

Previous studies have indicated that the price premium charged for hybrid catfish fingerlings may be a significant factor in the adoption and profitability of hybrid catfish production. An enterprise budgeting simulation analysis was developed to compare costs, risk, and effect of hybrid fingerling costs. Feed, fingerling, and total costs ($/ha and $/kg) were highest for hybrid catfish production, intermediate for NWAC‐103, and lowest for normal channel catfish production. Net returns were highest for hybrid catfish production, but breakeven prices were also highest. Risk analysis showed that downside risk (risk of losing money) was higher for hybrid production for all farm sizes. Risk‐averse farmers would not select hybrid catfish at the mean fingerling values used in the analysis. However, at hybrid fingerling prices less than $0.0081/cm, hybrid catfish production was superior in profitability and breakeven cost of production. Thus, for hybrid catfish production to be preferred economically to normal channel catfish, the price premium for hybrid catfish fingerlings can be no more than 84% ($0.0037/cm) above that of normal channel catfish fingerlings and 57% ($0.0025/cm) above that of NWAC‐103 fingerling prices.     

Development of aquaculture financial planning system

Abstract

Economically efficient feeding levels in intensively stocked ponds might be below minimum biological feeding requirements under adverse market conditions. A catfish production function that estimated relationships between yield and stocking and feeding rates was used as the basis for estimating production relationships. Feed price boundaries were developed that allowed the feeding rate to exceed the minimum biological level but still reflected economically efficient rates over a range of catfish prices and producer risk preferences. At higher stocking densities (20,000/ha), the feed price upper bound is lower than at lower stocking densities. Producers stocking at higher rates will be less likely to maximize profit and meet minimum biological feeding requirements as feed price increases than those producers stocking at lower rates. However, if feed prices exceed the upper bounds calculated in this paper, producers should engage in feeding only at levels necessary to meet farm financial and cash flow obligations until such time as the feed price decreases.     

Development of an indirect enzyme-linked immunoabsorbent assay using a monoclonal antibody to identify Ictalurus sp. fillets

The deceptive marketing of imported basa, Pangasius bocourti (Sauvage), fillets as catfish has resulted in serious economic losses to the channel catfish, Ictalurus punctatus (Rafinesque), industry in the US. The similar appearance of channel catfish and basa fillets created a need for a rapid method to differentiate uncooked, cooked and/or marinated channel catfish fillets from basa fillets and other fish products. A monoclonal antibody (MAb) specific for a 36.8 kDa channel catfish fillet protein was produced and characterized by an indirect enzyme‐linked immunoabsorbent assay (ELISA) and Western blotting. This MAb was used to develop an indirect ELISA specific for a fillet protein unique to fish of the genus Ictalurus. Using this ELISA, 100% of raw and cooked channel catfish fillets were correctly identified and differentiated from other fish in a single‐blind study. These results show that the indirect ELISA using MAbs specific for unique Ictalurus sp. fillet proteins is a rapid and sensitive method for the identification of raw and cooked catfish fillets.     

COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGES OF THE U.S. FARM-RAISED CATFISH INDUSTRY: A CROSS-REGIONAL ANALYSIS

Policy analysis matrices are developed and used to derive domestic resource cost coefficients for different catfish farm production regions in the United States. The results show that U.S. catfish producers were losing their comparative advantage positions during the study period considered. An import tariff improves the industry's comparative advantage position, but may not increase its market profitability. Higher efficiency in feed usage, and higher market prices paid to producers through promotional efforts are essential to the U.S. catfish industry.     

Farmed fish to supermarket: Testing for price leadership and price transmission in the salmon supply chain

In this article, we measure the extent of price transmission and test price leadership in the salmon supply chain. The data represent monthly observations (2005–2014) on export price of fresh salmon from Norway and on retail prices for a variety of salmon products in France and United Kingdom. The contribution is to use a Johansen bivariate time-series approach to quantify the degree of price transmission on a broader set of consumer salmon products than has been previously studied. Of the original 17 retail products examined only 8 cointegrate with export prices. Of these, all but one reject a null of full price transmission and all show price causality from export to retail level. Price transmission to retail prices decreases, as more processing is involved and increases for packaged salmon products compared to salmon sold in the fresh fish counter.     

United States of America Trade in Ornamental Fish

Ornamental fish production is among the leading cash crops of the United States of America aquaculture economy, and retail value of the fish trade is worth approximately US$l,000 million. However, few studies exist to document this trade. Using import and export documents we report trends in total values for the U.S. trade in ornamental fish. Also, we determined the number and value of the most commonly imported ornamental fish. In 1992, approximately 201 million fish valued at $44.7 million were imported into the U.S. The port of Los Angeles handled 39% of all trade activity, Miami 22%, New York 16%, Tampa 6%, and Honolulu 6%. Freshwater fish accounted for approximately 96% of the total volume and 80% of the value of the imports. Most freshwater ornamental fish were farm-raised and imported from Southeast Asia. Most U.S. exports of ornamental fish were cultured in the state of Florida. Although saltwater fish had a high market value (20% of the declared value of the imports), the volume of these fish was only 4%. Most imported and exported saltwater ornamental fish were collected from the wild. Of the 1,539 species declared as ornamental fish, 32 species dominated the trade. These were all of freshwater origin. The guppy Poecilia reticulala and neon tetra Paracheirodon innesi were the most popular ornamental fish kept in U.S. households. The average prices paid for imported ornamental freshwater fish were 45 cents for egg layers and 22 cents for live bearers. The results of this study document the importance of the ornamental fish industry and identifies the most valuable species in the trade for potential domestic culture and protection in the wild.     

THE FUTURE OF U.S. SEAFOOD SUPPLY

The United States today imports most of the seafood it consumes. Half of these imports are from aquaculture. Domestic wild capture production is limited and U.S. aquaculture production has declined in recent years. Policy, socioeconomic, and regulatory obstacles stand in the way of expanded U.S. aquaculture production. In this article, we examine the implications of two future paths for seafood supply: an increasing reliance on imports, and a shift toward increased domestic aquaculture production. We examine global trends, likely future developments in U.S. seafood demand and supply, and implications of the path of U.S. aquaculture development for U.S. seafood supply and prices, employment, ecological footprint, and seafood supply security and safety. We conclude with recommendations for a path forward that serves the interests of the nation and the global community in the search for economically sound and sustainable ways to feed a growing population.     

Trends in import and export of fishery products in the Czech Republic during 2010–2015

There has been a worldwide increase in consumption of fish from open waters and aquaculture during the last decades. In 2013, the Czech Republic was the sixth largest producer of fish within the EU, with annual production of 20,135 tonnes. However, during the period 2010–2015 import of fishery products to the Czech Republic increased from 39,098 to 43,399 tonnes. The monetary value of import increased by 81 % from 90.2 million EUR in 2010 to 169.9 million EUR in 2015. In 2010, the major imported fishery product was frozen fillets of sutchi catfish (Pangasianodon hypophthalmus) from Vietnam (8872 tonnes). In 2015, the most imported fishery product was whole chilled salmon (Salmo salar) from Norway (6897 tonnes). During 2010–2015, the export of fishery products increased from 18,167 to 22,134 tonnes, which is an increase by 21.8 %. The value of export has increased by 80 % from 54.5 million EUR in 2010 to 98.1 million EUR in 2015. The major exported fish was live common carp (Cyprinus carpio) at volume of 7545–9075 tonnes. This study looks at changes in market, volume and value of fish imported and exported during the last 6 years.     

中国大陆鱼粉市场状况分析

就中国大陆鱼粉市场整体状况,分别从国内鱼粉生产状况、进口状况和鱼粉流通及市场价格变化状况进行了分析,希望有助于相关企业和部门的生产与管理。