Long-term modelling of weed control strategies: analysis of threshold-based options for weed species with contrasted competitive abilities

A simple life-cycle-based demography model was adapted for two contrasting weed species ( Alopecurus myosuroides and Poa annua ). This model included a seed production function that accounted for population self-regulation through weed:weed interactions. The A. myosuroides version of the model was tested with field data. Long-term simulations of population demography were then performed to investigate the relationship between weed control strategies based on density thresholds and both the frequency of herbicide use and the long-term economic profitability. This study confirms that threshold-based weed management strategies are more cost-effective than spraying every year and may allow important reductions in herbicide use. However, after the first transient years of either systematically spraying or withholding herbicide, the long-term spraying frequency was insensitive to threshold values between 0.01 and 100 plants m⁻². The highest long-term profitability was obtained for the lowest threshold tested, and the profitability decreased rapidly when the threshold was raised above 4–6 and 10–20 plants m⁻² for A. myosuroides and P. annua respectively. The study thus indicates that the exact threshold value is of little importance for the long-term reliance of the system on herbicide, provided that it is reasonably low. For species with low competitive ability, high thresholds may be used in some cropping systems to reduce the spraying frequency for environmental considerations, but those options would also reduce the profitability if no compensatory measures were taken.     

The value of vegetation cover for ecosystem services in the suburban context

Latin-American cities can be characterized by dynamic processes of urbanization that encroach upon the natural and semi-natural surrounding landscapes. Our study presents the effects of landscape development, transformed from semi-natural conditions into a mostly disperse suburban settlement. We explore the impact that this transformation has had on this context by three ecosystem services that regulate rainwater runoff, enhance microclimate conditions and help to improve air quality by monitoring vegetation cover. We have designed a spatio-temporal hierarchical analysis which employs remote sensing techniques to capture the structural changes of this landscape over long, medium and short term scales on two spatial levels. This methodological approach was tested in the Metropolitan Area of Santiago (MAS) as case study area. Despite of the increase in impervious surfaces due to urban processes, there has also been an increase in vegetation cover, which has led to an improvement in the provision of the above-mentioned ecosystem services. Hence, if diverse urbanization processes continue and they are coupled with an increase in vegetation cover, the provision of ecosystem services could also expand. This phenomenon can be observed in some areas, where public and private green spaces are created and maintained. Our data analyses give evidence that certain types of suburban areas which increase the share of vegetation cover can provide daily ecological benefits for urban neighborhoods, and beyond, for adjacent areas. Moreover, suburban development can successfully provide ecological benefits to citizens. Such processes can only be ecologically sustainable if the composition of vegetation is well-adapted to the regional climatic conditions.     

线性红利界下带干扰风险模型的破产概率

考虑到保险公司在实际经营中收益所具有的不确定性和分红策略，建立一类具有线性红利界和带随机扰动的双复合Poisson风险模型，利用鞅方法给出模型关于破产概率的一个定理及上界．     

基于PID神经网络的滑翔增程制导炮弹解耦控制系统设计

采用Wiener空间的两个算子以及相关的恒等式，提出了新的方法证明了关于高斯过程函数的中心极限定理，并给出了该中心极限定理的应用实例.     

不同合成树脂工艺对改性材性能影响研究

为研究树脂对改性材性能的影响，采用2种不同工艺合成三聚氰胺-脲醛树脂（MUF），测试了树脂的相关性能。结果表明，不同合成工艺路线下制备的 MUF 树脂在固体含量、粘度、固化时间、游离甲醛含量间存在显著差异。最终树脂的分子结构类型相似性极高，但相同结构组分在不同树脂中所占比例各有差异。羟甲基基团在MUF2中所占比例高，而亚甲基桥键及醚键在MUF1中含量高。MUF1改性材的增重率（weight percent gain，WPG）值更大，但MUF2改性材的抗溶胀性（anti-swelling efficiency，ASE）和体积膨胀率（bulking rates，B）更高，MUF2改性材的尺寸稳定性更好。     

Influence of biomineralization on the physico-mechanical profile of a tropical soil affected by erosive processes

Most of the soils of tropical countries are affected by erosion processes. As a result, much attention has been dedicated to the use of microorganisms to improve the geotechnical properties and stability of soils in the context of “bioengineering”. This work was carried out to analyze the effects of the use of a CaCO₃ precipitating nutrient on native microbiota with the aim of mitigating the erosion processes in a tropical soil profile. We observed that the use of nutrient B4 enabled native bacteria present in the soil to precipitate calcium carbonate, resulting in improvements in the physical, chemical, mineralogical and mechanical properties of the soil, which allowed the mitigation of the erosion processes that characterize the soil profile studied.     

吉林蛟河近熟林树种多样性格局组建机制研究

植物种在群落多样性格局组建过程中所起的作用一直是生态学重点关注的问题。2010 年在吉林蛟河建立面 积为21.12 hm2 的近熟林监测样地,样地中记录到DBH 1 cm 木本植物32 405 株, 共计50 种木本植物。利用单物 种-面积关系模型分析了样地内30 种木本植物对局域群落多样性格局的影响,利用完全空间随机化模拟计算植物 对局域多样性促进或抑制的显著性程度。研究结果表明:1)由于ISAR 模型没有考虑竞争的非对称性,在相同取样 面积下,同一树种的mISAR 值普遍低于ISAR 值。不同树种的mISAR 曲线更加分散、区分度更为明显,且具有明显 的尺度依赖性。2)在0 ~50 m 空间尺度上,簇毛槭、黑樱桃、翅卫矛、稠李、大果榆、花楷槭、毛榛和青楷槭为多样性 促进种;水榆为中性种;红松、色木槭、胡桃楸在绝大多数空间尺度上表现为抑制种;其余树种绝大多数在小尺度上 表现为促进种。3)在中小尺度上,促进种决定了局域群落多样性格局组建; 在较大尺度上,促进种和中性种共同作 用于群落多样性格局的组建,并且随机过程的影响相对更强。因此,促进种和抑制种所代表的确定性过程与中性 种所代表的随机过程共同作用于森林群落多样性格局构建过程, 并且二者起作用的空间尺度不同。      

Investigations of the maintenance system of the Konik Polski horse and its effects on fecal microbiota activity during the winter and summer seasons

Gastrointestinal microbiota play a key role in the nutrients digestion and hence maintaining animal health and welfare. The diet offered to the animals in captivity may differ considerably from that on natural pastures. In a stabled maintenance system, horses have a limited choice of habitat and feed. Time spend for feeding is relevant for equine welfare because the reduction of the time devoted for foraging may be responsible for inducing gastric inflammation and ulceration. Therefore, in the present study, it was hypothesized that fecal bacterial fermentative processes differ between free-roaming and stabled Konik Polski Horses (KPHs) with respect to microbial enzymatic activity, and thus the fecal concentration of short-chain fatty acids (SCFA), which can be further utilized for assessing the feeding behavior and welfare in free-roaming versus stabled horses. The SCFA concentration and profile, as well as the extracellular and intracellular activities of selected bacterial enzymes, were characterized in horse feces collected during the winter and summer feeding seasons. The results showed higher enzymatic activity and SCFA production in the feces excreted by free-roaming versus stabled horses, especially during summer. An increase in pasture plant diversity may be beneficial for the gastrointestinal microbiota and hence for maintaining health and welfare.     

超级稻摘穗收获机沉降箱性能分析与运行参数优化

为使4ZTL-2000型摘穗收获机收获超级稻时具有最佳清选性能,以谷物清洁率和沉降箱能耗为指标,沉降箱入口气流速度、谷物喂入量及其初速度为影响因素,采用二次正交旋转组合设计试验,利用Design-Expert 6.0.10进行数据处理,得出回归数学模型,通过响应曲面方法分析指标与因素间的相互作用,并对回归数学模型进行多目标优化。结果表明:沉降箱入口气流速度对沉降箱指标影响最大,谷物初速度相对小,谷物喂入量的影响最小。为使沉降箱处理超级稻(目前谷物喂入量最大为3.78 kg/s)时具有最佳性能,通过优化获得运行参数的最佳组合为:沉降箱入口气流速度为13.93 m/s,谷物初速度为18.84 m/s。通过试验验证谷物清洁率达到了90.1%,沉降箱能耗为348.3 Pa,籽粒沉降效率为100%。     

基于高斯过程建模的物联网数据不确定性度量与预测

物联网已经成为农业大数据最重要的数据源之一,自动观测数据的质量控制对农业生产分析以及基础科研数据应用非常重要。针对农业物联网观测的一类非平稳时间序列数据中的数据缺失、野值剔除、感知故障预警和长时间预测等问题,采用光滑弱假设高斯先验,构建了基于高斯过程的自回归模型表征的动态系统,并通过样本集学习,形成能考虑噪声干扰的传感变化规律建模,并可提供预测误差带用于预测数据的不确定性度量。针对原始数据的缺失和野值问题,采用基于高斯过程的短期预测,可补齐缺失数据,利用其不确定性度量可甄别数据野值,进行野值剔除与替换,并在此基础上判断感知故障;给出了基于输入数据不确定性传播的多步迭代预测方法,使长期预测仍可以跟踪农业数据的动态轨迹,并可为其预测值提供不确定性度量;将温室采集的真实传感数据用于分析试验,验证了高斯过程用于服务器端的农业时间序列数据采集质量控制的可行性。