Implication of Logistic Model in Listed Companies'' Credit Risk Evaluation

This paper analyzes the causes that contribute to listed companies' credit risk,and then formulates a logistic model of listed companies' credit in which the interest rate safeguard multiplier and turnover rate of inventory are taken as key indices through handling the data of the companies' annual reports.The listed companies' credit after one year of operation can be evaluated by using this model.     

蔬菜价格波动背景下生产者种植意愿变化研究——兼论对Logistic模型的重新解读

首先推敲Logistic模型的应用,在此基础上,总结Logistic模型可以进一步改进的地方。文献中有关Logistic模型回归系数的经济含义解释较为模糊,本研究通过比较解释变量各状态,以研究蔬菜价格波动背景下生产者行为变化影响因素为例,深化Logistic模型回归系数的经济含义。研究发现:若假定有其他经历的菜农在菜价剧烈波动背景下不放弃蔬菜种植的概率是50%,则仅有务农经历的菜农不放弃蔬菜种植的概率为79.18%。同理,假设蔬菜种植非家庭主要收入的菜农不放弃蔬菜种植的概率为50%时,以蔬菜种植为主要收入来源的菜农不放弃蔬菜种植的概率达84.44%。Logistic模型从经验上反应了菜农不放弃蔬菜种植的原因:蔬菜种植是主要收入来源,人生经历单一,务农经历长等。反过来这意味着当蔬菜价格波动剧烈频繁,风险增加时,若有其他可供选择的机会,生产者放弃蔬菜种植的可能性会变大。蔬菜价格波动和供给是相辅相成的关系,保障供给可以稳定蔬菜价格,蔬菜市场风险减小又可以进一步保障供给。     

合作社资源基础及其参与电商模式的意愿研究——基于浙江省118家农民专业合作社

农民专业合作社作为一种有效的生产经营关系,在"互联网+"的新环境下,参与电子商务成为农民专业合作社转型升级的必然途径。基于资源基础理论,首先从理论上对影响农民专业合作社电商模式发展的因素进行分析,然后对浙江省118家农民专业合作社的调研结果进行了Logistic回归的实证分析。实证结果表明:人力资源因素对农民专业合作社参与电商意愿的影响更加显著,通过加大合作社发展的资金投入力度、组织合作社进行适度规模经营、提高合作社成员技术水平和建立合作社发展经验交流平台等措施,均有助于农民专业合作社电子商务业务的开展。此外,Logistic分析结果也为"互联网+"环境下更好地实现合作社有效参与电商运营,继而维持其更加健康的发展提供了针对性的改进意见。     

冬小麦株高和叶面积指数变化动态分析及模拟模型

在试验的基础上,分析了冬小麦株高及叶面积指数的变化动态,并分别以播后天数和积温为自变量,建立多项式和扩充的Logistic模型对二者的变化动态进行模拟。结果表明,基于播后天数的多项式,能较好的反应LAI的变化动态,但对于株高后期的不变情况描述不够理想;基于积温的扩充Logistic模型能得到更高的精度,该模型为通过天气预报中的温度预报值,对株高和LAI的变化进行预测奠定了基础。     

Statewide modeling of bobcat, Lynx rufus, habitat in Illinois, USA

We used sighting location and remotely sensed habitat data, multivariate statistical techniques, and a geographic information system to model bobcat (Lynx rufus) habitat in Illinois, thereby providing state wildlife managers with information to review the listing of bobcats as a state-threatened species and contribute to the development of a statewide management plan. We used canonical discriminant function analysis to model presence/absence and relative abundance of bobcats statewide. These models suggested that bobcats occurred in moderate to high abundance in 23 of 98 counties statewide (23%). We used stepwise logistic regression (SLR) analysis to model statewide habitat suitability. Spatial modeling of the SLR equation predicted that 29% of Illinois contained suitable habitat classified as P>0.50. Models were accurate when validated with an independent data set and indicated the importance of woods-related habitat variables to bobcats. In conclusion, these models provided tools to rapidly assess status that contributed to delisting bobcats as a threatened species in Illinois and provided further information to guide conservation efforts.     

都市农业农户科技信息服务需求的影响因素分析——以天津设施种植业为例

以天津设施种植业为例,在实地调研和问卷调查的基础上,运用二项逻辑斯谛回归模型分析了都市农业农户对科技信息服务需求意愿的影响因素。研究结果表明:农户对科技信息服务的需求大,同时,农户特征因素(学历)、技术诱导因素(家庭收入、设施类型、长期种植人数)、信息来源因素(信息渠道多样性、参加培训讲座次数)、农户主观因素(废物处理技术关注度、优质化肥农药关注度)均对农户科技信息服务需求有显著影响。据此提出组建多元化的农业科技信息服务队伍,兼顾信息服务内容的实用性与前瞻性,创新多层、多维的信息服务模式等对策建议。     

Study on Industrialization Integration Between Waste Logistic and Remanufacture of Motor Vehicle of Chongqing

The authors summarize the emerging backgroun technology, development trend of green remanufacture. The d, definition, current situation in China and aboard, key signification to establish industrialization integration-base of automobile and motorcycle of Chongqing. According as current scale, technological level, development trend of automobile and motorcycle industry of Chongqing, the feasibility to establish industrialization remanufacture-base of automobile and motorcycle of Chongqing is analyzed.     

A Logistical Discounted Model

Developing logistic based on e-commerce has been a hot point in the logistical field ,but putting the e-commerce logistic into reality still need further research .This paper suggests a logistical discount model. This model was directed by the ideal of logistic integration .The transportation discount was taken as a main instrument to reflect this idea. This model can be adopted by the fourth logistical company which want to make a profit from e-commerce logistic. After an analysis, the author gives an algorithm about the model.     

具无界时滞非自治平方Logistic模型的全局吸引性

考虑非自治平方 L ogistic模型 Δxn=rnxn(1- bxn- kn- cxn- kn2 ) ,n=0 ,1,2… ,其中 { rn}为非负实数列 ,b≥ 0 ,c>0 ,{ kn}是非负整数列 ,{ n- kn}非单调递减 ,且 limn→∞(n- kn) =∞ ,给出了保证其每一正解 { xn}满足 limn→∞xn=x的一族充分条件 (其中 x是正平衡点 ) ,并推广和改进了已有的结果     

对崔—Lawson氏种群增长模型的探讨(Ⅱ)

对崔-Lawson氏模型的讨论应在同一种群的基础上进行。在X_m/X＇_m变动时,用改换种群或改变时间单位的方式来满足μc==μ_mX_m/X＇_m=1的假设是无实际意义的。崔-Lawson氏模型只能从E+SES→E+E出发推导,而米氏方程是从E+SES→E+P出发建立的,两者间的差异值得进一步探讨。