气象条件对日本松干蚧越冬死亡率的影响

日本松干蚧是危害松树的重要害虫,越冬期气象条件是影响种群变动的重要因子。利用判别法,选取对日本松干蚧越冬死亡率影响较大的气象因子,并分析这些因子对越冬死亡率的影响。结果表明,11月各旬平均最低气温、12月下旬平均最低气温、3月上旬平均最低气温越低,日本松干蚧越冬死亡率越高;4月上旬降水量越大,其死亡率越高。选择资料时间序列较长且与日本松干蚧越冬死亡率相关密切的气象因子,建立了日本松干蚧越冬死亡率预测模型,经检验,模型准确率72%左右,对于监测及防控日本松干蚧具有一定应用价值。     

过去(1958-2007)和未来(2011-2060)50年淮河流域气候变化趋势分析

根据淮河流域1958-2007年观测资料和ECHAM5/MPI-OM模式对该流域2011-2060年气候变化的预估结果,分析淮河流域1958-2007年平均气温、极端高(低)温、农业界限温度和年降水量变化,并对2011-2060年气温和降水量变化趋势进行预估。结果表明:(1)淮河流域年平均气温,20世纪90年代以前以降温为主,90年代中后期增温显著;季节变化上,春秋两季气温呈波动增加趋势,冬季增温速率较高,夏季则呈下降趋势,极端气温事件出现次数和温度变化幅度均减小。淮河流域热量资源的时间变化以增温趋势为主,各界限温度初日提前,终日推迟,持续日数和累积温度增加。从区域分布上,流域东部增温趋势强于西部。1958-2007年年降水量和极端降水等无突变性的增加或减少趋势;季节变化上,流域夏季降水量变幅较大。(2)3种排放情景下淮河流域年平均气温升高趋势一致,且SRES-A1B情景升温幅度大于其它两种情景且约在2040年突变增温,3种情景下季节平均气温均为冬季升高最快;未来年降水量有微弱增加,但M-K检测均无显著变化趋势,未来50a淮河流域季节降水仍以春、夏季降水为主,约占全年降水量的70%。     

江苏省流域生态管理的若干问题研究

在分析江苏省流域管理现状及存在的问题基础上,对实施流域生态管理过程中涉及的若干问题研究,提出:①完善流域生态管理的政策支撑体系,要有相关法律法规制度保障、有完善的规划体系可执行;②改革流域管理体制,打破流域与行政区域的隔阂,建立江苏省流域委员会;③创新流域生态管理机制,建立流域安全机制、生态补偿机制、流域协作轴线、多参与流域决策系统和虚拟水战略等;④强化流域生态管理的技术支持,施行生态管理技术和数字流域建设等。     

Using conservation plans and bird monitoring to evaluate ecological effects of management: An example with fuels reduction activities in southwest Oregon

Increasingly, regional conservation plans are using information about how animals respond to changes in habitat characteristics to provide guidelines for management. However, the ability of these plans to effectively guide management remains largely untested. To test a regional bird conservation plan developed by Partners in Flight, we compared bird abundance in untreated stands to that of stands where shrub cover had been reduced to lower the risk of fire. We used these data to evaluate whether birds identified as focal species in the conservation plan increased or decreased in abundance as a result of the treatments. Over a two-year period, two of 12 Partners in Flight oak woodland and chaparral focal species were more abundant at treated units in both years; no species were consistently less abundant at treated units in both years. These results suggest small-scale (7–42 ha) treatments are consistent with the objectives identified in the Partners in Flight regional conservation plan because they benefited species associated with edges, but did not have negative effects on shrub-associated species. We suggest that this is a result of the small size of treatments and the retention of shrub patches in treated areas. An alternative explanation is that the bird/habitat relationships used to develop the conservation plans do not apply in this study area. We tested this hypothesis by comparing the correlations between habitat characteristics and bird abundance with the information in the conservation plans. In all but one case, the direction of the correlation agreed with information in the conservation plan. This project illustrates that even though the ability of conservation plans to predict the ecological effects of management activities may be limited, they can play an important role in interpreting the results of ecological monitoring.     

云南气象对稻米营养品质动态影响的试验研究

稻米蛋白质、氨基酸和人体必须氨基酸是表征稻米营齐品质的重要指标。选用优质稻品种“云恢290”在云南的蒙自、开远、石屏进行无控制的地理分期播种试验和稻米品质的实验室化验分析结果,采用积分回归方法y=α0＋∫^T α（t）x（t）dt研究了云南高原气象条件对稻米蛋白质、氨基酸和人体必须氨基酸形成的动态影响,建立了动态模拟模型,为云南优质稻生产中品种布局、根据生产目的需要合理安排播期提供了科学依据。结果表明,影响蛋白质、氨基酸的主导气象因子有所不同,蛋白质主要受日照时数和最高温度的影响,而氨基酸和人体必需氨基酸主要受日照时数及最低温度的影响．     

Surface heterogeneity and the spatial variation of fluxes

An integral scale of surface heterogeneity is defined in terms of the structure function of surface properties (surface temperature and albedo) and related to flux measurements taken during the NOPEX experiment. The spatial variation of the sensible and latent heat fluxes is shown to be related to this structure function. Although the surface heterogeneity clearly influences the spatial variation of the fluxes, the variance of the fluxes scales under mixed layer scaling and not the heterogeneity of the underlying surface.     

Tiptoeing between restoration and invasion: seed rain into natural gaps within a highly invaded relic forest in the Azores

The last remains of native laurel forest in the Azores are highly threatened by the spread of invasive plants. Because landslides are very frequent in these islands, conservation of native laurel forest requires knowledge of the patterns of bird-dispersed seed rain into forest gaps. We monitored 78 seed traps over 1 year to investigate (1) the role of perches in attracting avian dispersers into gaps, (2) temporal patterns in the dispersal of exotic and native seeds, (3) how seed rain affects vegetation establishment in gaps at different distances from the native forest and (4) whether the caloric content of fruits could explain the number of seeds dispersed. Perches were highly effective in concentrating avian seed dispersal. While some native fruits are produced all year-round, most exotic plants set fruits during the main peak of the native fruit production (August–November). Most seeds recovered from the traps were native, and native seed rain inside the native forest was higher than in gaps. However, deposition of exotic seeds was not affected by distance from native forest. Seed dispersal frequencies monitored by seed traps and by faecal analysis were correlated with each other, but not with fruit caloric content, suggesting that other factors are more important that the nutritional value in predicting avian fruit choice. Forest restoration activities should take into consideration that seed dispersal decreases sharply beyond 100 m from native forest and the attractive potential of perches to direct natural seed dispersal into forest gaps.     

气候变化下石羊河流域水资源特征分析

基于5个气象站点30年气象观测资料和近10年的水资源数据,运用数理统计方法分析了石羊河流域水资源特征,结果表明,1981～2010年石羊河流域增暖明显,上游年降水量显著减少,石羊河主干流径流量呈季节性变化;地下水位趋深,北部荒漠地区持续下降;水资源总量以0．8809亿m3／a的速度减少,且对降水的敏感度明显高于对温度的反映,水资源开发利用形势非常严峻。     

武威市极大风速气候特征分析及其推算

利用武威市观测站2005~2013年最大风速与极大风速观测数据,拟合武威市最大风速与极大风速之间关系,从而推算1980~2004年极大风速,对武威市1980年以来极大风速气候特征进行分析。结果表明,1980年以来武威市极大风速共出现4个峰值,分别出现在1984、1985、1993和2013年,尤其是1993年,极大风速达30.5 m/s,历史灾情记录显示1993年的"5.5黑风"破环力极强,给武威的农业生产带来了极大的影响,1994~2012年属于极大风速较小阶段,但由于此阶段武威市设施农业发展迅速,仍是给当地生产造成的严重的损失,利用第Ⅰ型极值分布方法推算武威市未来10、30、50、100年内可能出现的最大风速,推算结果分别为28.6、31.3、32.6、34.3m/s,在今后设施农业的规划和发展应加强大风灾害的防范。     

川西南山地马铃薯品质的气候生态关系模型研究

通过对马铃薯品种会-2在凉山州不同海拔地区进行地理分期播种试验及马铃薯块生化品质的化验分析,定量地研究了马铃薯品质要素随海拔的变化以及马铃薯从出苗—开花、开花—成熟阶段温度和降水与马铃薯品质要素的关系,建立了马铃薯品质因素的气候生态综合模型.结果表明,①马铃薯品质要素随海拔变化具有抛物线特征,不同要素的抛物线型不同;②温度与干物质、淀粉、蛋白质呈显著负相关,与还原糖、维生素C呈正相关,但相关性都较差.③出苗—开花、开花—成熟期间的降水量对品质要素的影响不同.