武威市极大风速气候特征分析及其推算

利用武威市观测站2005~2013年最大风速与极大风速观测数据,拟合武威市最大风速与极大风速之间关系,从而推算1980~2004年极大风速,对武威市1980年以来极大风速气候特征进行分析。结果表明,1980年以来武威市极大风速共出现4个峰值,分别出现在1984、1985、1993和2013年,尤其是1993年,极大风速达30.5 m/s,历史灾情记录显示1993年的"5.5黑风"破环力极强,给武威的农业生产带来了极大的影响,1994~2012年属于极大风速较小阶段,但由于此阶段武威市设施农业发展迅速,仍是给当地生产造成的严重的损失,利用第Ⅰ型极值分布方法推算武威市未来10、30、50、100年内可能出现的最大风速,推算结果分别为28.6、31.3、32.6、34.3m/s,在今后设施农业的规划和发展应加强大风灾害的防范。

The Climate Characteristics Analysis and Calculation for Maximum Wind Speed in Wuwei City

Using the maximal wind speed data and the maximum wind speed of Wuwei City station during 2005 - 2013, fitting the relationship between the maximal wind speed and the maximum wind speed, then the maximum wind speed from 1980 to 2004 was calculated, the climate characteristics of maximum wind in Wuwei City were analyzed since 1980. The results showed that the maximum wind speed had four peaks since 1980 in Wuwei City, they appeared in 1984, 1985, 1993 and 2013, especially in 1993, the maximum wind speed reached 30.5/s. The historical disaster records showed that in 1993 ＂5.5 black wind ＂force was extremely strong, take great impact for the agricultural production in Wuwei. From 1994 to 2012, the maximum wind speed belonged to a little small stage, but in this stage the facility agriculture was developing rapidly, disaster losses are still very serious. Using the first type I extremal distribution method, the maximum wind speed in the next 10, 30, 50, 100 years in Wuwei City was calculated. The calculation results were 28.6, 31.3, 32.6, 34.3 m/s. The wind disasters should be considered in the planning and development of facilities agriculture in the future.