Zero-inflated models for identifying disease risk factors when case detection is imperfect: Application to highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 in Thailand

Logistic regression models integrating disease presence/absence data are widely used to identify risk factors for a given disease. However, when data arise from imperfect surveillance systems, the interpretation of results is confusing since explanatory variables can be related either to the occurrence of the disease or to the efficiency of the surveillance system. As an alternative, we present spatial and non-spatial zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) regressions for modelling the number of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 outbreaks that were reported at subdistrict level in Thailand during the second epidemic wave (July 3rd 2004 to May 5th 2005). The spatial ZIP model fitted the data more effectively than its non-spatial version. This model clarified the role of the different variables: for example, results suggested that human population density was not associated with the disease occurrence but was rather associated with the number of reported outbreaks given disease occurrence. In addition, these models allowed estimating that 902 (95% CI 881–922) subdistricts suffered at least one HPAI H5N1 outbreak in Thailand although only 779 were reported to veterinary authorities, leading to a general surveillance sensitivity of 86.4% (95% CI 84.5–88.4). Finally, the outputs of the spatial ZIP model revealed the spatial distribution of the probability that a subdistrict could have been a false negative. The methodology presented here can easily be adapted to other animal health contexts.     

H9N2亚型禽流感病毒NS1基因真核表达载体的构建及其在293细胞瞬时表达

在293细胞中瞬时表达A/Chicken/Henan/1001/2010（H9N2）NS1基因蛋白,并对表达蛋白活性进行测定。试验利用PCR技术从NS1-T载体质粒上扩增NS1基因,将其克隆至pCAGGS载体,构建重组质粒NS1-pCAGGS;经酶切和测序鉴定正确后,重组质粒NS1-pCAGGS与脂质体按照一定比例混合后转染293细胞,用间接免疫荧光方法对瞬时表达细胞进行荧光信号反应。结果显示,禽流感NS1基因可以很好地在293细胞中瞬时表达,具有良好的反应原性。     

H3、H9亚型禽流感病毒双重荧光定量PCR方法的建立及初步应用

虽然H3、H9亚型禽流感病毒（Avian influenza virus, AIV）是低致病性禽流感病毒,但其具有跨宿主感染哺乳动物的能力,对社会公共卫生安全具有重大的潜在危害,因而对这些亚型病毒的监测极其重要。通过比对GenBank上H3、H9亚型禽流感病毒HA基因序列,设计了分别针对H3 AIV和H9 AIV的特异性探针。特异性试验和标准曲线试验的结果显示,这两个探针仅分别特异性识别H3、H9亚型AIV,且具有较好的扩增效率。通过重组质粒pMD19-T-H3HA和pMD19-T-H9HA 10倍梯度稀释液为模板,进行敏感性实验。结果表明,本研究所建立的荧光定量PCR方法能检测到100个DNA拷贝数H3 AIV和10个DNA拷贝数的H9 AIV,比传统PCR方法敏感性分别提高了100倍和1000倍。此外,本方法还能检测到10 EID50的H3亚型AIV或H9亚型AIV,比传统PCR方法检测敏感性均提高了1000倍。批间和批内试验的变异系数均小于3%,表明本研究建立的方法具有较好的重复性。此外,与传统PCR方法相比,用H3、H9亚型AIV双重荧光定量PCR方法检测人工感染动物的肺组织时,针对H3 AIV的敏感性提高了10~100倍,针对H9 AIV的敏感性提高了100倍。综上所述,本研究所建立的H3、H9亚型禽流感病毒双重荧光定量PCR方法具有较高的特异性和敏感性,对H3、H9亚型禽流感病毒监测具有重要的应用价值。     

H9亚型禽流感病毒钦州株HA基因的克隆与遗传进化

采集钦州活禽交易市场的鸡气管和泄殖腔的棉拭予样品,用H9亚型分型引物进行PCR初步筛选,阳性样品经SPF鸡胚尿囊腔接种分离病毒,通过RT-PCR方法扩增HA基因,并将其克隆到pMD—18T载体后进行序列测定和分析。结果表明,获得1株H9亚型禽流感病毒命名为：A／Chicken／Guangxi／qz40／2009（简称qz40）。测序结果表明qz40的HA基因片段全长1683bp,编码560个氨基酸;序列同源性比较结果表明,该毒株与参考毒株的核苷酸序列同源性为82．8％．99．9％,推导氨基酸同源性为87．5％．99．6％;HA基因的裂解位点氨基酸顺序为RSSRIGLF,为低致病性毒株;含有7个潜在的N-糖基化位点,其中5个位于HAl部分、2个位于HA2部分;基于H9亚型HA基因的进化树分析表明,qz40株属于欧亚种系的A／Chicken／Beijing／1／94（Ck／Bei—like）群系。     

一株鸭源H8N4亚型禽流感病毒分离株的全基因组序列分析及致病性的研究

本研究对2012年从湖南活禽市场中分离到的一株鸭源H8N4亚型禽流感病毒(AIV)A/duck/HuN/S3160/2012(H8N4)进行全基因组序列和进化分析,并对其进行SPF鸡、SPF鸭和BALB/c小鼠的致病性试验.序列分析显示:HA裂解位点序列为339pSIEPK ↓ GLF347,为典型的低致病性AIV特征.内部基因来源较复杂,HuN/160/12的PB1、NS基因分别与A/spot-billed duck/Xianghai/427/2011 (H5N2)和A/wild bird/Korea/A81/2009(H5N2)的同源性最高,其余内部基因同源性最高的病毒株来自H2、H3、H4、H7、H10等亚型分离株,呈现明显的异源性.感染性试验结果显示,病毒在SPF鸭体内可以通过呼吸道和消化道向外排毒,并且能够在气管、肾脏、盲肠扁桃体及法氏囊检测到病毒,而不能在鸡体内有效复制及排毒.对小鼠的感染性试验结果显示,仅在鼻甲和肺检测到病毒存在,其他脏器病毒滴定结果为阴性,体重呈一过性下降,表明该病毒为低致病性AIV.     

H7N9亚型禽流感对辽宁省畜牧业的影响及其对策

禽流感已成为国际上广泛关注的公共卫生事件,因此,加强对流感状况的认识和了解将有助于人们有效地防控流感。本文对禽流感病毒的流行现状及对辽宁省畜牧业的影响进行综述,旨在为有效防制禽流感提供理论依据。     

H1N1亚型猪流感病毒HA和NA基因双重RT-PCR定型检测方法的建立与应用

为了建立适用于临床诊断的H1N1亚型猪流感病毒快速检测方法,本研究根据GenBank已登录的H1N1亚型猪流感病毒HA和NA基因序列设计RT-PCR扩增引物,以H1N1亚型猪流感病毒、H3N2亚型猪流感病毒、猪瘟病毒和猪繁殖与呼吸综合征病毒为试验对照,通过优化RT-PCR反应条件和反应体系,建立了H1N1亚型猪流感病毒HA和NA基因双重RT-PCR定型检测方法。同时,运用H1N1亚型猪流感病毒血凝和血凝抑制试验方法和本研究建立的方法对165份猪病料样品进行了对比验证。结果表明,本研究建立的H1N1亚型猪流感病毒双重RT-PCR具有良好的特异性、敏感性、重复性,所扩增的目的基因片段大小分别为428 bp和678 bp左右,可检出最小基因组RNA浓度为2.9×10-5μg/μL。本研究建立的方法和H1N1亚型猪流感病毒血凝和血凝抑制试验方法均从同一份猪肺脏样品中检测出H1N1亚型猪流感病毒,其余样品中均未检出H1N1亚型猪流感病毒,两种方法符合率为100%。本研究建立的方法适用于H1N1亚型猪流感病毒双基因定型检测,可在H1N1亚型猪流感病毒流行病学调查和临床诊断中应用。     

Novel human H7N9 influenza virus in China

Outbreaks of H7N9 avian influenza in humans in 5 provinces and 2 municipalities of China have reawakened concern that avian influenza viruses may again cross species barriers to infect the human population and thereby initiate a new influenza pandemic. Evolutionary analysis shows that human H7N9 influenza viruses originated from the H9N2, H7N3 and H11N9 avian viruses, and that it is as a novel reassortment influenza virus. This article reviews current knowledge on 11 subtypes of influenza A virus from human which can cause human infections.