美国奶业新特点、新趋势及对中国的启示

美国奶业发展历史悠久,其生产端、消费端乃至流通贸易方面长期积累的丰富经验,对中国奶业振兴具有一定的参考价值。笔者对2000年以来美国奶业生产、价格、消费、贸易等方面所呈现的新特点进行分析,对奶业相关的支持政策及其变化趋势进行梳理。研究发现,近年来,美国奶牛场数量向北部和西部集中,500头以上规模化牧场成为主流,奶牛存栏增加;技术进步推动奶牛单产突破10 t,生鲜乳产量接近1亿t。基于分级定价的乳成分定价机制不断完善,近5年生鲜乳价格低位运行,2019年快速复苏。乳制品加工业向龙头企业集中,奶酪是主要加工产品。乳制品消费逐年增长,年人均消费量达292.90 kg,奶酪是主要增长点且增速加快。乳制品贸易波动增加,出口目的地集中在北美、东亚和东南亚地区,品类以奶粉、奶酪和乳清为主。奶业产业支持政策广泛涵盖生产、消费、贸易等各环节,各政策间功能互补、协调配套,形成了强大的政策合力与综合效能。美国奶业在产业组织、运行机制、政策配套等方面的经验与做法,对推动完善中国奶业利益联结机制、优化生鲜乳价格形成机制、完善奶业支持政策体系和培育乳制品消费习惯等方面具有重要启示。     

The routes to fruit: Governance of urban food trees in Canada

Interest in planting urban food trees (UFTs) in public spaces is growing in popularity as a form of urban greening and a potential food source. Currently there is minimal research on the governance and policy aspects of integrating food trees into cities. To fill this gap, we investigated the characteristics of UFT site governance and how it compares to current urban forest governance. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with relevant municipal officials in Calgary, Edmonton, Toronto and Victoria about their perspectives and involvement with UFT sites in their city. A scan of policy documents was completed to supplement the interviews. The interviews were analyzed using a deductive coding framework based on the Policy Arrangement Approach. We found that key actors at the UFT sites were local organizations and site champions, with minimal municipal engagement. Most site resources provided by municipalities were in-kind. There are also basic knowledge gaps about how to care for UFTs. Currently municipal by-laws prohibit the harvesting and removal of plant material, and are at odds with the purpose of UFT sites, with few municipalities fully integrating UFTs in policies. The primary discussion around UFTs centre concerns for public health and safety, management, and use of public space with limited discussions of benefits. This research demonstrates the value of co-governance models to support UFTs, while a shift in focus from risks to benefits could encourage additional resources and policy integration. Further, including UFTs into policy would also support foraging and food tree maintenance in public spaces, and more fully reflect the plurality of urban forest engagement.     

基于适宜概率模型的柑橘生产空间模拟变化

土地利用/土地覆被变化模拟是土地科学的重要内容。随着全球变化研究的不断深入,LUCC变化模拟已逐步深入到农作物空间。开展长时序农作物空间变化模拟有助于揭示农业生产过程中“人类-自然”综合体的复杂关系。然而目前农作物空间模拟研究较少,已有模型在空间映射关系,对象识别等尚存技术局限,模型应用也主要集中在粮食作物。本文构建了基于适宜概率的柑橘生产空间分配模型,对四川省柑橘生产空间分布进行了模拟研究。结果显示：该模型较好地反映了1980—2015年柑橘统计特征,各时期统计面积和模拟面积的相对误差均＜25%。在县域尺度上,统计面积和模拟面积的相关系数在0.987 6~0.999 9,呈现明显的线性相关,达到了极显著相关。1980—2015年间,四川省柑橘空间快速扩张,柑橘模拟面积的时序变化与统计面积一致。柑橘空间集中在川中丘陵区和成都平原区。空间格局从分散零星向区域集聚转变,大致形成了成都平原、川南、川东北3个柑橘集中区。SPAM-Citrus模型误差受空间分辨率、空间分配规则、土地覆被、作物分布点的共同影响。在应用中应尽量选择种植年限较长的采样点,同时面向研究对象和区域,选择合适分辨率和空间分配规则,提高预测结果的准确性。     

温室夏季降温温湿度关系的试验研究

通过阐述夏季玻璃温室内四种主要降温系统,即自然通风系统、机械通风系统、湿帘-风机系统和湿帘-风机+外遮阳系统工作时室内温湿度变化趋势,并采用回归分析的方法建立温室内温度和湿度的定量关系,同时,运用线性函数、对数函数、二项式函数、乘幂函数和指数函数对温湿度变化关系进行拟合.结果显示,四种降温方式都是二项式函数的拟合程度最好,其相关系数最高,分别达到0.984 7,0.972 5,0.981 3和0.980 6.     

The impact of seasonal colour change in planting on patients with psychotic disorders using biosensors

The beneficial effect of nature on patients with mental disorders is of particular importance. There has been an increase in mental illnesses in recent years, but research on the design of healing gardens for mental and behavioural disorders remains limited. This paper is part of a wider study that aims to investigate the effect of selected design elements of healing gardens on patients with mental disorders. This study examines the effect of seasonal colour change in plantings in the design of healing gardens on patients suffering from psychotic disorders by using a questionnaire survey and by recording and analysing human behaviour. Images depicting seasonal colour change in different plantings were viewed on a computer monitor by patients. Patients’ behaviour was studied using biosensors for eye-tracking, facial expression analysis and galvanic skin response. The results showed that differences in gender and age between participants did not affect their preferences. However, it appeared to be more difficult to positively affect the emotions of male participants compared to female participants. Seasonal colour change in a tree canopy created positive and intense emotions in the patients. Based on the results, the use of deciduous trees is proposed in the design of healing gardens for patients with psychotic disorders to create seasonal colour change. Further research is necessary to obtain more detailed design recommendations for landscape architects.     

基于Elman神经网络的烤烟鲜烟叶含水量模型研究

在Matlab中利用ANN方法建立了鲜烟叶含水量Elman非线性动态预测数学模型,利用计算机视觉技术,选取在改进AHP法中占较大权重综合评判指标叶片宽、面积以及均值特征量,作为网络的输入,克服了用单一指标进行评判的缺陷,通过实验数据对Elman模型进行验证和误差分析,结果表明该含水量模型可对鲜烟叶含水量进行预测,预测精度大于90%,预测结果达到预期目标,在此基础上进行了含水量检测系统软件的开发。     

基于县域单元的我国水稻生产时空动态变化

水稻是我国最重要的粮食作物之一, 阐明近几十年来水稻的时空动态变化特征, 对于优化水稻布局、促进水稻生产的可持续发展具有重要意义。本研究基于1985年以来的县域水稻生产数据, 分析了我国水稻产量、面积和单产的时空动态变化特征和水稻生产重心迁移轨迹, 在此基础上量化了水稻面积和单产对总产的贡献度。结果发现, 我国水稻产量变化以49年周期为主, 21年为辅, 面积变化周期为26年, 单产变化周期为60年; 1985—2015年间, 在水稻种植区域内, 近50%地区产量上升, 约70%播种面积减少, 80%以上区域单产增加; 我国水稻产量、面积重心分别向东北方向迁移229 km和225 km, 而东北稻作区产量、面积重心分别向北偏东方向迁移238 km和242 km; 我国水稻生产主导因素中单产占比由56.3%下降至28.3%, 面积由34.7%上升至63.1%。结果表明, 全国各稻作区单产提升、东北早熟单季稻区面积增加、华中双单季稻区和华南双季稻区面积减少是我国水稻种植面积变化的主要特征。因此, 合理布局我国水稻的种植面积和持续提高的水稻单产是稳定和提升我国水稻产量的主要措施, 充分利用光热资源、提高机械化程度和比较效益是促进我国水稻生产发展的关键途径。     

四川盆地水稻不同生育期干旱频率的空间分布特征

将四川盆地按地理地貌类型及水稻种植区划分为5个区域即盆南、盆中、盆西、盆周和盆东,基于区内102个县(市)气象台站1980-2014年的逐日气象资料及32个农业气象观测站的水稻生育期资料,利用干旱评估指标分析四川盆地水稻各生育期干旱发生频率的空间分布特征。结果表明：水稻移栽-分蘖期干旱频率在盆中及盆南部分区域高达90%以上;分蘖-拔节期及拔节-孕穗期干旱频率也相对较高,大部地区集中在50%～90%;水稻孕穗-抽穗期和抽穗-成熟期的干旱发生频率与其它生育期相比较低,孕穗-抽穗期干旱发生频率除盆西部分区域、盆中及盆东北局部在70%～84%以外,其余大部在50%左右;抽穗-成熟期干旱发生频率大部分在50%～70%。     

Combining ability analysis to identify suitable parents for heterosis in seed cotton yield,its components and lint % in upland cotton

Combining ability and heterosis were studied in a 6 × 6 diallel cross to see the nature of gene action in Upland cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) during 2002 to 2004. Analysis of variance revealed highly significant differences among all the F₁ and F₂ hybrid means and their respective six parental values for all the traits examined. In both generations, the mean squares due to general combining ability (GCA) and specific combining ability (SCA) were also highly significant. SCA genetic variances were greater than GCA and more important for the traits, i.e. boll weight, boll number and seed cotton yield per plant, showing the predominance of non-additive gene action. Lint % in both generations and boll weight in F₂s only were controlled by additive type of gene action due to maximum GCA variances. Cultivar CIM-1100 was found to be the best general combiner and its utilization produced valuable hybrids with desirable SCA in both generations. F₁ and F₂ hybrids, viz., CIM-1100 × CRIS-9, CIM-1100 × FH-682, CIM-1100 × BH-36 and CIM-109 × CIM-1100 as high × low and low × high parents performed well in SCA determination, outstanding mean performance and heterosis. Better SCA effects associated with useful heterosis were more pronounced for yield traits. In F₁ hybrids, maximum heterosis was observed for seed cotton yield followed by boll number, boll weight and lint %. The heterosis over better parent was +3.13 to +65.63% for bolls per plant, +0.75 to +24.40% for boll weight, +0.82 to +115.22% for seed cotton yield and +0.27 to +3.88% for lint %. Involvement of CIM-1100 in most of the F₁ and F₂ hybrids resulted in the synthesis of superior genotypes for most of the traits studied. Inbreeding depression was elevated in good performing hybrids and was the highest for seed cotton yield. Highest yielding F₁ hybrids yielded lesser in the subsequent generation due to over-dominance and inbreeding depression, whereas moderate yielding F₁ hybrids were found more stable even passing through process of segregation due to additive gene action. The combined performance of F₁ and F₂ hybrids could be a good indicator to identify the most promising populations to be utilized either as F₂ hybrids or as a resource population for further selection.     

川西高原错季草莓种植的适宜度分析

基于1986−2015年川西高原48个气象观测站点逐日气象数据，结合草莓的生物学特性和2018年分播期试验观测结果，根据气候生态适宜度理论和模糊数学方法，建立气温、水分以及综合适宜度评价模型，对川西高原草莓生长的逐旬适宜度进行分析，确定适宜草莓生长的时间段，并分析草莓各生育期的生长适宜度，利用综合打分的方法完成草莓综合适宜种植区的区划，以探究川西高原气候条件错季大规模种植草莓的可行性。结果表明：（1）川西高原错季草莓生长气温较适宜期集中在4−10月，同期水分适宜度及综合适宜度均达到次适宜水平及以上，能够满足草莓种植的基本需求，同时也满足草莓鲜果在夏季错季上市的时令需求。（2）川西高原错季草莓的适宜种植区主要集中在凉山州的甘洛、越西、冕宁、喜德、西昌、布施、普格、宁南等地；次适宜区主要覆盖凉山州东部和中西部等海拔3000m以下地区，以及阿坝州中南部和甘孜州东部等海拔2000−5000m地区，并从中部向西侧的高海拔地区呈带状延伸；而石渠、色达、红原、若尔盖等高纬度地区和巴塘、理塘、得荣、乡城、稻城等高海拔地区则不适宜错季草莓的种植。因此，在适宜播期和覆膜等农业技术措施的补充下，川西高原大部分地区的气候条件适宜进行错季草莓的种植栽培。