美国奶业新特点、新趋势及对中国的启示

美国奶业发展历史悠久,其生产端、消费端乃至流通贸易方面长期积累的丰富经验,对中国奶业振兴具有一定的参考价值。笔者对2000年以来美国奶业生产、价格、消费、贸易等方面所呈现的新特点进行分析,对奶业相关的支持政策及其变化趋势进行梳理。研究发现,近年来,美国奶牛场数量向北部和西部集中,500头以上规模化牧场成为主流,奶牛存栏增加;技术进步推动奶牛单产突破10 t,生鲜乳产量接近1亿t。基于分级定价的乳成分定价机制不断完善,近5年生鲜乳价格低位运行,2019年快速复苏。乳制品加工业向龙头企业集中,奶酪是主要加工产品。乳制品消费逐年增长,年人均消费量达292.90 kg,奶酪是主要增长点且增速加快。乳制品贸易波动增加,出口目的地集中在北美、东亚和东南亚地区,品类以奶粉、奶酪和乳清为主。奶业产业支持政策广泛涵盖生产、消费、贸易等各环节,各政策间功能互补、协调配套,形成了强大的政策合力与综合效能。美国奶业在产业组织、运行机制、政策配套等方面的经验与做法,对推动完善中国奶业利益联结机制、优化生鲜乳价格形成机制、完善奶业支持政策体系和培育乳制品消费习惯等方面具有重要启示。

New Characteristics,New Trends and Enlightenment of US Dairy Industry

The U.S. dairy industry has a long history of development, and its long-term accumulated rich experience in production, consumption and even circulation trade has a certain reference value for the revitalization of China’s dairy industry. This paper analyzes the new characteristics of dairy production, price, consumption, trade and other aspects of the U.S. dairy industry since 2000, combs the supporting policies and their changing trends. The study found that in recent years, the number of dairy farms in the United States has dropped sharply, and has been concentrated in the north and the west. Large scale pastures with more than 500 cows have become the mainstream. The number of dairy cows increased. Technological advances have pushed the yield of dairy cows to 10 tons, and the output of fresh milk is close to 1 million tons. A pricing mechanism for milk composition based on grading pricing has been continuously improved. The price of fresh milk has been running at a low level in the past five years and recovered rapidly in 2019. Dairy processing industry is concentrated in leading enterprises. Cheese is the main processing product. The consumption of dairy products increased year by year, with the annual per capita consumption reaching 292.90 kg. Cheese is the main growth point and the growth rate is accelerated. The trade fluctuation of dairy products has increased. The export destinations are concentrated in North America, East Asia and Southeast Asia. The products are mainly milk powder, cheese and whey. The U.S. dairy industry support policy covers the production, consumption, trade and other aspects of the industrial chain. The functions of each policy are complementary and coordinated, forming a strong policy joint force and comprehensive efficiency. The experience and practice of dairy industry of the United States in terms of industrial organization, operation mechanism and policy support have important enlightenment on promoting and improving the interest linkage mechanism of the Chinese dairy industry, optimizing the formation mechanism of fresh milk price, improving the supporting policy system of dairy industry and cultivating the consumption habits of dairy products.