我国肉鸭价格波动趋势分析

利用2014年1月—2019年5月肉鸭价格月度数据,分别运用ARIMA模型和HoltWinters模型对我国肉鸭价格进行拟合,并对未来24个月的价格数据进行预测。拟合结果表明,我国肉鸭价格总体呈现波动上升的趋势,且具有明显的季节性特征。综合预测结果来看,对于肉毛鸭价格预测更倾向于选择ARIMA模型。在没有外部因素冲击的情况下,我国肉鸭市场价格具有明显的季节价格波动规律,且波动幅度较小,维持相对平稳状态。而突发公共卫生事件会使肉鸭产品对冲击迅速发生价格响应,在短时间内加剧价格波动。     

基于UVSVM模型的中国羊肉价格波动及影响研究

我国羊肉价格自 2006 年以来产生了较为明显的波动,给市场带来较大的不确定性。本文将分析我国羊肉价格随机波动与价格之间的动态反馈关系,研究在参数可变模型(TVP)基础上,利用 UVSVM 模型,分析 2000 年 1 月 2018 年 5 月中国羊肉价格的波动特征,以及这种价格波动率的不确定性对价格水平的影响。结果表明:羊肉价格的随机波动对羊肉价格水平的影响较小;但羊肉价格水平的变化会影响短期羊肉价格的随机波动,当羊肉价格较高时,价格的随机波动会减弱,当羊肉价格水平较低时,价格波动随之扩大;价格的随机波动偏离价格水平均值越远,这种波动会加剧,且呈螺旋式扩张。基于此,政府应该采取相应预警措施,抑制价格短期剧烈波动,保证市场平稳运行。     

基于HP滤波模型苜蓿草进口价格波动分析

本研究分析了2008年1月-2017年12月苜蓿草(Medicago sativa)进口价格的波动特征,运用Census X12季节调整模型消除季节性因素及不规则要素,进一步采用HP滤波模型将价格序列分解为趋势值序列和波动值序列,并划分波动周期。本研究揭示的苜蓿草进口价格波动和周期性变化规律对于畜牧企业进口贸易具有重要的意义,可以降低苜蓿干草价格波动带来的负面效应。     

我国鸡蛋价格波动的特点及影响因素分析

近年来,我国鸡蛋价格波动频繁,鸡蛋价格的大起大落不但会影响居民的生活消费,也会损害养殖户的利益。2000年1月至2013年7月鸡蛋价格月度数据研究表明:我国鸡蛋价格波动存在明显的季节性、周期性和趋势性。进一步利用同期的玉米价格、雏鸡价格及CPI数据建立向量自回归模型,脉冲响应分析表明:相对于玉米价格,雏鸡价格和CPI的波动对鸡蛋价格波动有更大影响且持续时间更长;方差分解亦表明CPI和雏鸡价格波动对鸡蛋价格波动的贡献率更大。     

2021年我国生猪价格走势及未来市场变化分析

本文从生猪产能变化、价格走势、政策引导等方面剖析我国生猪市场变化趋势,并预测未来价格走向。预计最早在2021年3月,最晚在2021年6月,我国生猪存栏量将恢复到正常年份的水平;2021年6月底我国生猪价格或将步入"猪周期"的下行区间,价格有可能跌破25元/kg;2021年下半年生猪价格保持波动下滑态势,但不会出现价格快速下滑现象,在不考虑自然灾害、生猪疫情、政策干预等不可预测因素的情况下生猪价格将在20元/kg上下波动。此外,由于生产成本上升,2021年养猪户收益状况不容乐观,产能的恢复也将导致2021年猪肉进口量大幅减少。     

三季度全国养鹅业产销形势分析

一肉鹅销价先升后降 7月份全国商品肉鹅回收价格开始小幅回升,中小型鹅种从每千克12元多上升到14.80元,大型肉鹅每斤28—30元,但好景不长,受国内外刑绒市场持续低迷的影响,各类商品肉鹅回收价格又出现下滑。     

不同孵化方式对马岗鹅种蛋孵化率的影响

鹅具有明显的季节性繁殖特点,同时鹅虽经过人类的长期选育,但就巢的行为仍保持至今。鹅繁殖活动的季节性和强烈的就巢性导致产蛋时间短、产蛋少,进而造成雏鹅及肉鹅的供应也呈现明显的季节性变化,市场价格波动较大。所以,在种鹅产蛋量提高有限的条件下,如何提高种蛋的孵化率显得尤     

基于结构方程模型的生猪价格预警研究

基于结构方程模型中的MIMIC模型,结合2006年1月—2011年8月的生猪价格月度数据,构建了我国生猪价格波动预警系统,并进行了实证研究,然后根据模型估计结果,计算出潜在变量生猪价格波动强度,发现2010年4月至今,生猪价格波动强度有进一步增强的趋势,2011年6月达到最高位,之后又形成新的上升曲线,需要积极预警和监控。     

我国大豆种植今年有望增加预警措施仍需强化

近10年来，我国大豆生产经历了两轮市场价格的高低转换，大豆种植面积也随之大幅波动。2007年我国大豆减产较多、大豆价格大幅上升，造成供求矛盾进一步突出。未来应进一步加强“预警”措施，以避免大豆市场再次出现大幅波动。     

粮价高于去年同期

据农业部信息中心分析,今年国际市场粮食现货价格在较高价位振荡,二季度价格比一季度有所回落,各品种价格普遍高于去年同期。小麦价格高位波动上半年,美国1号硬红冬麦现货平均价为1359元/t(西北太平洋港口交货价),同比上升了7.4%,6月份价格比1月份下降了5.5%,各月价格普遍高于去年同期。国际市场小麦价格在2003年上半年明显下降,并在7月份下降到最低点,从2003年下半年开始小麦价格逐渐走高,虽然月度之间有波动,但总体上升的趋势十分明显。今年1月和3月小麦价格一度上升到1387元/t,是1998年以来的最高水平。玉米价格达到1997年以来的最高上半…     

肉种鹅反季节繁殖技术的研究

为了克服种鹅繁殖活动的季节性束缚,从而使雏鹅和商品肉鹅分别能够在全年各个时期均衡供应市场,本文从遮黑鹅舍、光照控制、限制饲喂和人工强制换羽方案设计四方面详实阐述了改变种鹅传统的季节性繁殖的方式,实现反季节繁殖。该项技术的具体实施方案可操作性强、适用性广,对促进我国鹅业产业化快速发展必将起到积极的推动作用。     

政策措施落实显效,生猪生产趋稳向好——2019年生猪市场回顾与未来走势展望

2019年是真正的金猪年。由于非洲猪瘟疫情影响,生猪产能持续下降,导致生猪价格年内一度创下出栏均价40元/kg以上的罕见高位,并维持较长时间,行业盈利达到历史最好最高水平。目前,年关将至,已进入猪肉的传统消费旺季,加之“灌香肠、制腊肉”相继启动,元旦、春节来临,或将再度推动全国猪价阶段性上行。而随着一系列稳定生猪生产的扶持政策落实显效,目前全国生猪生产呈现整体趋稳向好态势。预计,2020年猪价仍将在高位区间波动运行,后市或将逐渐震荡回调。     

生猪价格超常波动对健康养殖推广的影响

生猪价格的超常波动使生猪养殖风险增大、收益不稳定,频繁的价格波动影响了养殖主体决策的理性,同时,养殖主体决策的非理性也会对生猪健康养殖推广造成明显的障碍。因此,只有确保中央政策与地方政策的配套协同,构建生猪产业链内各主体之间合理的利益关系,对养殖主体的心理预期进行调节,针对养殖主体的需求改变推广模式与方法,才能有效突破生猪价格波动对生猪健康养殖推广的制约。     

规模化猪场非洲猪瘟防控要点

在我国群众食用的各种肉类中,猪肉占据绝对优势。在肉类消费中,很长时间以来猪肉消费皆处于较大占比。非洲猪瘟于2018年8月进入我国,极大程度干扰到国内生猪养殖,猪肉价格一路上涨,一度接近牛肉。受到猪肉售价提高的影响,其他肉类与菜类的售价皆随之提高,也造成了较大的社会影响。在我国,生猪养殖模式上,大多数为集约化养殖,非洲猪瘟的流行在极大程度上威胁到生猪养殖业,导致巨大经济损失。如何防控非洲猪瘟,避免造成较大的损失,文章将从病原来源、发展现状及如何防治等方面进行分析,进而在理论层面上给予防控非洲猪瘟工作以指导,拱筑防控非洲猪瘟城墙。     

2022年第四季度乳品行业市场分析

第四季度乳业市场逐渐稳定,生鲜乳价格出现下滑,零售终端价格战频繁。从国内前三季度上市公司报表看出,乳业头部品牌继续高速增长,但利润增速有所放缓;区域乳品企业业绩出现分化,利润普遍下滑;特色乳品销售额和利润都普遍增长。第四季度的世界杯大赛促使国内乳品企业展开了体育营销,蒙牛成为最大赢家;双“11”促销中,强者恒强的特征依然明显;进入12月,春节销售大战开启,市场竞争激烈。第四季度的新产品呈现出高价值、高营养、产地化的特征,这充分说明消费者对于乳品的消费升级的需求明显,随着市场逐渐恢复,这类产品将具有广阔的市场。     

我国肉羊产业“十三五”时期发展回顾及“十四五”趋势展望

本文从生产、贸易、消费、价格及政策5个方面对"十三五"时期我国肉羊产业的发展情况进行回顾,总结其主要特征为:一是产量和产能均有所提升;二是进口规模稳步增长,但出口规模有所缩减;三是消费总体稳步增长,但人均户内消费量有所下降;四是羊肉价格整体高位运行,在外界因素影响下波动比较明显;五是产业政策扶持力度继续加大。预计"十四五"时期,羊肉产品需求将稳中有升,但供给侧结构仍需优化,产业发展仍然面临着较大的环境和资源约束。     

Changes in the producer payments scheme for milk

The volume of milk for manufacture has more than doubled since 1970 and now exceeds that taken by the liquid market. To match producer payments more closely to market realities the MMB will, from April 1984, replace the fat and solids-non-fat compositional quality payment scheme with one based on fat, protein and lactose. In the last 10 years the seasonal trough of production has moved from December to August/September. In an attempt to slow this trend and also provide a disincentive to additional supplies at peak, the MMB is altering its seasonal price adjustments. Milk prices will be increased in August and September and decreased in May and June. The changes in themselves will not affect the total sum of money available to producers, hence most of them will see little difference to their annual income. The exception will be those producers supplying milk of either especially low or high protein and, to a lesser extent, fat content. The change in seasonal adjustments will however cause a noticeable disruption in the cash flow to all producers. The price changes are not likely to produce an immediate management response but should encourage producers to consider critically their existing feeding, breeding and calving policies.     

International red meat trade.

The maturation of the US beef and pork markets and increasing consumer demands for convenience, safety, and nutrition suggests that the beef and pork industries must focus on product development and promotion. New marketing arrangements are developing that help coordinate production with consumer demands. The relative high levels of incomes in the United States are likely to increase the demands for branded products rather than increase total per capita consumption. Foreign markets represent the greatest opportunity for increased demand for commodity beef and pork products. Increasing incomes in developing countries will likely allow consumers to increase consumption of animal-source proteins. Real prices of beef and pork have declined substantially because of sagging domestic demand and increasing farm-level production technologies. Increasing US beef and pork exports have obviated some of the price declines. Pork attained a net export position from a quantity perspective in 1995. The United States continues to be a net importer of beef on a quantity basis but is close to becoming a net exporter in terms of value. By-products continue to play a critical role in determining the red meat trade balance and producer prices. The United States, however, must continue to become cost, price, and quality competitive with other suppliers and must secure additional market access if it is to sustain recent trade trends. Several trade tensions remain in the red meat industry. For example, mandated COOL will undoubtedly have domestic and international effects on the beef and pork sectors. Domestically, uncertainty regarding consumer demand responses or quality perceptions regarding product origin, as well as added processor-retailer costs will be nontrivial. How these factors balance out in terms of benefits versus costs to the industry is uncertain. From an international perspective, some beef and pork export suppliers to the United States could view required labeling as a trade restriction, which could ultimately impact future US red meat exports. Conversely, some countries may view such labeling requirements as an opportunity to brand high-quality products. The US lamb meat industry has experienced declining real prices, domestic production, and demand. The cessation of wool incentive payments, increased environmental regulations, and competition by imports have significantly affected the industry. Import suppliers have capitalized on product quality in this niche market. Trade restrictions initially imposed in 1999 by the US Government were ruled illegal by the WTO. The US Government responded by providing financial assistance to lamb producers. Product quality improvements and promotion aimed at the domestic market, however, will be critical factors in shaping the economic viability of the US lamb meat industry.     

2019年中国猪肉市场回顾及未来走势

由于受非洲猪瘟疫情等因素的影响,2019年猪肉产能出现大幅下滑,生猪存栏和能繁母猪存栏连续10个月下降,猪肉供应减少,进口量激增;猪肉消费减少,白条鸡、鸡蛋等替代品消费增加;生猪、猪肉和仔猪价格明显上涨,猪肉稳价保供压力大。2020年,生猪产能将逐渐恢复,加上猪肉进口的扩大和储备肉的投放,猪肉供销将趋于稳定。     

Effect of culling age of does on milk and meat production in Japanese-Saanen goats

A functional herd dynamics model was developed to estimate the effect of culling age on milk and meat production for Japanese-Saanen goats in relation to changes in prices of milk and meat. The model simulates life cycle production of bucks and does and their kids. Every production trait is first modelled as an individual trait and thereafter as a trait in the herd using a herd dynamics model. At the individual level, the survival curve function, the litter size function and the production traits function are combined. Data on growth and lactation were used to fit growth and lactation curves to estimated parameters using non-linear least squares regression technique and used in the production traits function. Using herd dynamics, the individual level functions are combined with the total number of animals function to estimate the total herd output and income efficiency at the herd level. Here, variables of culling days including the effect of difference in meat price value among goat categories (bucks, does, male kids and female kids) are used. Analysis of interrelations among the culling days of does, the price ratio and the income efficiency indicated that optimal culling days of does was shortened with an increase in the price ratio of meat to milk. However, when meat price value was different among goat categories according to actual situation of Japanese goat production, the optimal culling days of does could be fixed regardless of the change in price ratio and was calculated as 1730 days. This functional herd dynamics model can aid in decision-making regarding culling under several situations especially when there is a wide fluctuation in prices at local markets.