作物生产潜力模型在中国的应用

作物生产潜力的研究可以为提高作物产量及合理进行农业生产规划提供依据。长期以来 ,中国学者采用了包括经验模型和物理模型等多种方法计算作物的生产潜力。经验模型使用方便但计算精度比较低 ,而物理模型计算精度较高但使用比较复杂。中国目前这些方法都有使用 ,但仍以应用国外研制的模型为多。本文回顾了各类模型的特点和应用情况 ,以利于发现问题和明确研究方向 ,发展中国自己的作物生长模型。     

基于空间插值技术和辅助信息的吉林省玉米土地生产潜力研究

为提高作物生产潜力估算精度,利用GIS技术,将作物生产力逐步衰减模型与ArcGIS空间分析中GRID建模相结合,建立了作物生产潜力模型,并利用空间插值技术和辅助信息对估算光温-气候-土地生产潜力所需的气象和土壤要素等进行了重点模拟.其中,采用多元回归+残差内插方法,对吉林省气象站点观测的温度和降水数据进行了空间模拟;将...     

作物生长模型ALMANAC的验证与应用初探

介绍了作物生长模型ＡＬＭＡＣＮＡＣ的结构和功能，对模型参数进行了修订，验证了模型在黄土高原地区的适用性，该模型可用于本区作物生物管理和科学研究工作。最后，指出了模型在探查资源生产潜力，优化作物栽培方案和研究环境变化对作物生产的影响等方面的应用前景。     

华北地区冬小麦生产潜力数值模拟及其自然正交分析

利用自然正交分解(EOF)对由机理性作物生长模型模拟的华北地区冬小麦的光温和气候生产潜力结果进行了分析,揭示生产潜力在时空上的分异规律。首先在中国科学院禹城综合试验站进行了冬小麦田间试验,测定了冬小麦生理生态及干物质积累过程等试验数据。根据试验数据对WOFOST模型进行了改进,获取了相关模型参数并对模型进行了充分验证,验证结果表明模型可以较好地模拟冬小麦生长过程。随后利用验证后的WOFOST模型模拟了华北地区42个站点1961—2006年冬小麦的光温生产潜力和气候生产潜力,并对其进行EOF分析。结果表明华北地区光温生产潜力呈东北高西南低的变化趋势,气候生产潜力大致呈南高北低的趋势,该结果与以往研究结果较为一致。EOF分析则表明,影响光温生产潜力最重要的因子是辐射,其次是温度。影响气候生产潜力最重要的是降水,其次是该区域光温条件的综合效应。     

马铃薯生长模型研究进展及其应用

马铃薯是世界第四大粮食作物,然而马铃薯的生产却易受到环境因素和遗传因素的影响。通过利用生长模型将马铃薯生理生态过程和相互关系进行量化表达,分析其内部结构与外界环境的关系,从而提出合理的管理方式,达到增产高效的目的。目前,国际上开发了一些较成熟的马铃薯生长模型,如SUBSTOR-potato,NPOTATO,LINTUL-POTATO模型等,应用在国内马铃薯生产实践中取得了一定成果,但总体来说中国马铃薯生长模型的应用还处于探索发展阶段。本文通过对国内外马铃薯生长模型研究的分析总结,得出国内外马铃薯生长模型的主要特点是偏重C、N素研究,缺少P、K素研究;模型所需要的参数较其他作物模型更为复杂。同时,综合分析现有各个生长模型的原理与技术路线的异同点与优缺点,指出马铃薯生长模型需在遗传参数和气候参数方面加以深化研究,并展望了利用作物生长模型指导国内马铃薯生产相关的发展趋势。     

基于农用地分等成果的武功县耕地生产能力分析

为了充分利用农用地分等成果测算耕地生产能力,合理开发农用地生产潜力,建立了农用地产能核算技术方案体系,并据此以武功县为例,计算了该县农用地自然生产潜力、利用生产潜力和现实生产能力.通过各分等单元的自然质量等级指数和利用等级指数分别乘以单元面积并累加得到自然生产潜力和利用生产潜力,并利用Logistic模型拟合标准粮产量和利用等指数之间的关系来计算现实生产能力。结果表明,武功县自然生产潜力和利用生产潜力分别为107.42×10⁴ t和70.05×10⁴ t,单位面积自然生产潜力和利用生产潜力分别为39.22 t·hm^-2和25.58 t·hm^-2,现实生产能力为28.49×10⁴ t,单位面积现实生产能力为10.40 t·hm^-2。武功县耕地生产能力在空间上差异明显,粮食单产有从东南向西北递减的趋势,单位面积现实产能最高和最低的分别为普集镇和游风镇,为13.53 t·hm^-2和8.66 t·hm^-2,未来西北台塬区的乡镇是粮食增产的重点区域。     

呼伦贝尔典型草原区牧草气候生产潜力评估

利用迈阿密模型和Tharnthwaite Memorial模型研究了呼伦贝尔典型草原区6个旗县牧草气候生产潜力,结果表明,牧草气候生产潜力在4925.500~5551.542 kg/(hm2.a),潜力较大,地区差异不很明显;最大潜力地区在降水量较多的陈旗以南一带,北部新右旗至满洲里一带的降水较少,气候潜力普遍偏低;牧草气候资源潜力的利用率陈旗以南地区为34.2%~37.9%,新右旗至满洲里一带为27.6%~30.9%,表明现实的生产力远未达到气候生产潜力,尚有很大潜力可以开发;与气温相比,降水量是限制该地区牧草气候生产潜力的主导因素,决定牧草气候生产潜力高低的关键因子是水热组合情况;在温度不变的情况下,降水每增加1 mm,牧草的生产潜力增加8.7111~14.0877 kg/(hm2.a);用气温、降水量与牧草气候生产潜力建立的6个县级单元气候评估模式均通过了0.01信度检验,模拟的平均相对误差均<5%,可以用于未来气候变化条件下呼伦贝尔草地生产力的评估研究。     

内蒙古准格尔旗主要耕作土的农业自然生产潜力及限制因子分析

根据研究区的自然条件及生产特征，建立了光，温，水和土壤条件对农业自然生产潜力影响的分室模型及综合模型。对模型分析发现：制约准格尔旗农业自然生产潜力的主导限制因子是土壤肥力（主要是土壤养分及有机质），其次是水分条件，再次是光，热，水配制结构和温度条件。为准格尔旗土壤的分阶段改良提供了依据。     

植被净第一性生产力模型研究进展

建立符合实际情况的植被净第一性生产力模型，可以为研究土地承载力和制定人口、环境、资源协调发展战略和规划提供科学依据。详细了植被净第一性生产力模型的国内外研究进展，并对现有的自然植被和作物生产力模型进行了简要评价，比较其优劣，指出了今后的发展方向；建立植被叶面积指数与生物生产力区域遥感动态模型；在全球变化背景下，研究生物生产力的变化趋势尤为重要；对于作物生长模型应组建模型进行所需的各类数据库。     

近50年贵州省气候生产潜力时空变化特征

利用1961-2010年贵州省81个气象站的逐日气温和降水资料、DEM数据,采用Thornthwaite Memorial模型估算了全省气候生产潜力,分析了气候生产潜力的时空变化特征以及地形因子和气候因素对其的影响。结果表明:近50年来,贵州省气候生产潜力在1363.9~1620.3g·m-2·a-1之间,就其变化趋势而言,气候生产潜力呈微弱上升趋势,上升速率为0.140g·m-2·a-1。气候生产潜力异常偏少年份多发生在20世纪60年代和80年代,而异常偏多年份在近50年中仅出现过1次(1972年)。区域分布差异性明显,基本上呈"三级阶梯式"分布,表现为由东南向西北逐渐减少,而且随着海拔升高,气候生产潜力逐渐降低,两者呈显著负相关。气候生产潜力受到气温和降水的双重影响,增温和增湿均有利于气候生产潜力的增加,但降水是限制气候生产力的主要因素。     

区域模型在黄土高原丘陵区尺度转换研究中的应用

针对黄土高原的土地可持续利用研究方法中的尺度转换研究需要,利用较为先进的土地情景利用规划思路与土壤侵蚀与生产力测算模型APEX(AgriculturalPolicy/EnvironmentaleXtender),对于黄土高原区域综合治理典型面积为8.27km2的纸坊沟流域土地利用结构进行了模拟计算。结果表明,模型模拟计算的水土流失量与实际观测量的误差小于10%,5年加权平均的作物模拟产量与实测值的差异不显著。据此计算了55km2县南沟不同轮作方式、不同耕作措施等生产设计所产生的不同结果,并经由计算结果做出比较分析。     

近45年气候变化对哲盟作物生产潜力的影响

分析哲盟近４５年气候变化对作物生产潜力的影响,结果表明：光合物产潜力有减少的趋势;温度升高使得光温生产潜力变幅减少;受降水变率大的影响,气候生产潜力变幅最大。并从生产潜力的角度,说明了解决农业灌溉问题和充分利用热量的增加是适应气候变化,提高作物现实生产力的关键。     

盐渍化地区SPAC系统不同界面能态研究

以当地主要经济作物油料向日葵为研究对象,采用田间试验对北方盐渍化地区土壤-植物-大气连续体中不同界面的能态进行了研究。通过相关性分析得出土壤基质势,叶水势,大气水势三者在时间和空间上都有很大的差别。该研究为盐渍化地区农业生产和节水灌溉提供了理论基础。     

A functional group approach to the management of UK arable weeds to support biological diversity

Weeds have an important role in maintaining farmland biodiversity. This needs to be balanced with their potential negative impact on crop yield and quality. Mechanistic models of crop–weed competition are an important tool in striking this balance. A range of common UK annual weeds were screened for the eco‐physiological traits required by the models. Using multivariate techniques, a number of functional groups with a similar pattern of productivity and competition were identified, based on trade‐offs between traits. A scheme was developed to assign species outside of the data set to one of the groups, based on life cycle, seed mass, maximum height and time of first flowering. As well as having a similar competitive ability, species within a group also appeared to have a similar ecosystem function, in terms of supporting higher trophic groups. Two beneficial groups of species were identified that combined a relatively low competitive ability with a high importance for invertebrates and birds. The identification of functional groups in the UK arable flora is a useful tool for assessing a weed community in the context of reconciling biodiversity provision with crop production. Preserving beneficial plant functional types within the crop would complement non‐cropped wildlife refuges, such as field margins.     

基于GIS的内蒙古土地资源生产潜力与未来人口承载力

本文采用改进的农业生态区位法,利用GIS技术,以1km×1km栅格为基本单元,计算了内蒙古自治区栅格与县域尺度的土地资源生产潜力;在此基础上,以旗县为单元,定量评价了内蒙古的土地资源承载力,结果表明:温度与水分是内蒙古粮食生产的主要限制性因子;内蒙古县域土地资源生产潜力均值为4.37 t/hm2.a,大兴安岭—阴山—贺兰山一线以东、以南地区生产潜力较高,以西、以北潜力较低。整体而言,内蒙古基于粮食安全的人口发展仍有较大空间,旗县差异显著。     

Global crop production and the efficacy of crop protection - current situation and future trends

Actual and potential crop losses of eight major food and cash crops have been estimated by evaluating data from literature and field experiments. Total losses were calculated from yield reductions due to pathogens, animal pests and weeds on a regional, continental and global level. Since 1965, worldwide production of most crops has increased considerably. Simultaneously, crop losses in wheat, potatoes, barley and rice increased by 4 to 10 percent, in maize, soybean, cotton and coffee losses remained unchanged or slightly decreased. The efficacy of crop protection practices was calculated as the percentage of potential losses prevented by control. The efficacy is highest in cotton (55 percent), it reaches only 34 to 38 percent in the food crops rice, wheat and maize. The variability among cropping areas is high: In Western Europe, 61 percent of potential crop losses is prevented, in North America and Oceania 44, in all other regions 38 percent. Due to the small share of Western Europe in worldwide production of 8 percent, the efficacy of actual crop protection worldwide is only 40 percent.In view of population growth and rising food demand crop production has to be increased substantially. As potential loss rates often increase with attainable yields high productivity largely depends on effective crop protection management. Scenarios for the production of food crops by the year 2025 in developed and in developing countries are given. Recent and future developments in crop protection can contribute to establish sustainability in agriculture and to preserve natural resources. However, although effective control methods have been developed for most biotic yield constraints, the use of crop protection products is regulated by economic considerations rather than by food demand.     

黄土塬区主要粮食作物增产潜力分析

研究一个地区的作物生产潜力可以发现提高产量的主要障碍因子 ,为合理进行农业生产规划提供依据。本文以长武试区冬小麦和春玉米为例 ,计算了黄土塬区光温潜力、气候潜力 ,并与实际产量进行比较。结果表明 ,该区光温潜力多年平均值冬小麦为 691 0 .5kg/ hm2 ,春玉米为 1 0 663 .4kg/ hm2 ,年际变化不大 ;气候生产潜力多年平均值冬小麦为 590 4.6kg/ hm2 ,春玉米为 81 48.4kg/ hm2 ,年际波动较大。冬小麦 WCR为 0 .84;春玉米 WCR为 0 .76。试区大田产量冬小麦为旱作产量潜势的 57.7% ,光温潜力的 46.3 % ,春玉米为旱作产量潜势的 82 .8% ,光温潜力的 61 .6% ,还有较大的增产潜力     

Biologically active substances from higher plants: Status and future potential

Plant breeding and selection, husbandry techniques and crop protection technology, including agrochemicals, have all made substantial contributions to the present-day level of crop productivity. However, yield losses due to disease, pests and weeds must continue to be minimized in order to meet the food supply demands from an ever growing population. Appropriate synthetic chemicals are becoming increasingly difficult to discover and develop due to stricter requirements on efficacy, selectivity, toxicology and general environmental impact. Consequently, there is a growing interest in understanding and utilising natural mechanisms as the basis for crop protection products. Plants themselves are a rich source of biologically active substances which could potentially be harnessed to modify crop growth or to protect crops against disease and pests. This review describes briefly the current status of understanding relative to plant–plant (herbicide and plant growth substances), plant–fungal (fungicide) and plant–insect (insecticide) interactions. Future prospects are considered in relation to directed synthesis, cell culture, microbial pesticides and plant genetic engineering. The opinion expressed is optimistic and suggests that science today can be utilised to secure the food supply of tomorrow. However, utilising either natural products or molecular biology may require an improved understanding of crop physiology and new developments in agronomy. Therefore, the time-frame for major impact of the ‘new’ technologies on crop productivity may be longer than is commonly predicted.