Quantitative distinction of the relative actions of climate change and human activities on vegetation evolution in the Yellow River Basin of China during 1981-2019

Under the combined influence of climate change and human activities, vegetation ecosystem has undergone profound changes. It can be seen that there are obvious differences in the evolution patterns and driving mechanisms of vegetation ecosystem in different historical periods. Therefore, it is urgent to identify and reveal the dominant factors and their contribution rates in the vegetation change cycle. Based on the data of climate elements (sunshine hours, precipitation and temperature), human activities (population intensity and GDP intensity) and other natural factors (altitude, slope and aspect), this study explored the spatial and temporal evolution patterns of vegetation NDVI in the Yellow River Basin of China from 1989 to 2019 through a residual method, a trend analysis, and a gravity center model, and quantitatively distinguished the relative actions of climate change and human activities on vegetation evolution based on Geodetector model. The results showed that the spatial distribution of vegetation NDVI in the Yellow River Basin showed a decreasing trend from southeast to northwest. During 1981-2019, the temporal variation of vegetation NDVI showed an overall increasing trend. The gravity centers of average vegetation NDVI during the study period was distributed in Zhenyuan County, Gansu Province, and the center moved northeastwards from 1981 to 2019. During 1981-2000 and 2001-2019, the proportion of vegetation restoration areas promoted by the combined action of climate change and human activities was the largest. During the study period (1981-2019), the dominant factors influencing vegetation NDVI shifted from natural factors to human activities. These results could provide decision support for the protection and restoration of vegetation ecosystem in the Yellow River Basin.     

青海湖流域沙柳河草甸群落结构与数量特征

沿青海湖流域沙柳河河岸,选取多个断面进行样方调查,分析沿沙柳河距河流入湖处不同距离、垂直河岸方向上草甸群落结构、地上生物量以及物种多样性的变化特征,并讨论影响群落结构变化的生境因子。结果表明：① 在所调查的样地中,有草本植物52种,隶属39属,13科。平均总盖度为70%,平均地上生物量为131 g•m^-2。② 随着离湖距离的增加,Shannon-Wiener指数、物种丰富度、物种均匀度指数、地上生物量呈现先增加后略微减小的趋势,盖度的变化趋势是先增加后不变。土壤含水量和土壤含盐量、海拔等可能是影响植物群落空间分布差异的主要原因。③ Shannon-Wiener指数、物种丰富度与地上生物量呈现不明显的线性关系。     

黄河上游植被覆盖度空间分布特征及其影响因素

采用2000—2015年MODIS1M NDVI数据计算黄河上游年最大植被覆盖度 (FVC)，了解空间分布状况及变化特征；同时，采用了一种基于统计学原理的地理探测器模型，考虑非气候类环境因素、气候类环境因素和人类活动因素，使用相应的代理变量对黄河上游FVC空间分布的影响因素做定量研究。研究表明：① 黄河上游FVC总体上以改善为主，空间分布特征变化不大；② 单因子方面，降水量(q值0.669)是该地区FVC空间分布的主要影响因素，其他因子的影响作用存在区域差异；③ 降水分别和土壤类型、土地利用方式的交互作用(q值0.777、0.775)对研究区FVC空间分布起主导作用，土壤类型和土地利用的影响作用在一定高程、降水条件下才得以体现；④ 总体上，气候类环境因素>非气候类环境因素>人类活动因素，人类活动在与降水等环境因子的共同作用能够更充分地解释FVC空间分布；⑤ 对研究区的生态恢复应重点放在降水的充分利用和土地利用方式改进等方面。     

基于MODIS/NDVI的塔里木河流域植被覆盖变化驱动因素相对作用分析

塔里木河流域是我国生态较为脆弱的地区,过去几十年不合理的开发,导致植被覆盖遭到严重破坏。2001年以后,随着"塔里木河流域近期综合治理项目"等系列生态工程的实施,流域环境得到初步改善,植被覆盖日益好转。利用2001—2013年逐旬MODIS/NDVI数据和气象数据,通过分离气候变化对塔里木河流域植被覆盖的影响,对气候变化和人类活动对植被覆盖变化的相对作用进行定量分析。研究表明:(1)2001—2013年塔里木河流域植被覆盖总体呈增长趋势;植被覆盖呈改善趋势的区域占流域总面积的28.02%,呈退化趋势的区域占10.99%,其他区域则基本不变。(2)采用相关分析与残差法分析了气候变化和人类活动对植被覆盖变化的影响,结果表明植被覆盖变化与气候因子显著相关;人类活动对植被覆盖变化起积极作用的面积占流域总面积的61.8%,起消极作用的占38.2%。(3)通过对植被覆盖变化驱动因素进行相对作用分析,可以得出在植被改善区和植被退化区,人类活动的作用相对于气候因素更大,是植被覆盖变化的主要驱动因素。     

Runoff characteristics and its sensitivity to climate factors in the Weihe River Basin from 2006 to 2018

Exploring the current runoff characteristics after the large-scale implementation of the Grain for Green (GFG) project and investigating its sensitivities to potential drivers are crucial for water resource prediction and management. Based on the measured runoff data of 62 hydrological stations in the Weihe River Basin (WRB) from 2006 to 2018, we analyzed the temporal and spatial runoff characteristics in this study. Correlation analysis was used to investigate the relationships between different runoff indicators and climate-related factors. Additionally, an improved Budyko framework was applied to assess the sensitivities of annual runoff to precipitation, potential evaporation, and other factors. The results showed that the daily runoff flow duration curves (FDCs) of all selected hydrological stations fall in three narrow ranges, with the corresponding mean annual runoff spanning approximately 1.50 orders of magnitude, indicating that the runoff of different hydrological stations in the WRB varied greatly. The trend analysis of runoff under different exceedance frequencies showed that the runoff from the south bank of the Weihe River was more affluent and stable than that from the north bank. The runoff was unevenly distributed throughout the year, mainly in the flood season, accounting for more than 50.00% of the annual runoff. However, the trend of annual runoff change was not obvious in most areas. Correlation analysis showed that rare-frequency runoff events were more susceptible to climate factors. In this study, daily runoff under 10%-20% exceeding frequencies, consecutive maximum daily runoff, and low-runoff variability rate had strong correlations with precipitation, aridity index, and average runoff depth on rainy days. In comparison, daily runoff under 50%-99% exceeding frequencies, consecutive minimum daily runoff, and high-runoff variability rate had weak correlations with all selected impact factors. The sensitivity analysis results suggested that the sensitivity of annual runoff to precipitation was always higher than that to potential evaporation. The runoff about 87.10% of the selected hydrological stations were most sensitive to precipitation changes, and 12.90% were most sensitive to other factors. The spatial pattern of the sensitivity analysis indicated that in relatively humid southern areas, runoff was more sensitive to potential evaporation and other factors, and less sensitive to precipitation.     

Attribution analysis and multi-scenario prediction of NDVI drivers in the Xilin Gol grassland,China

Grassland degradation is influenced by climate change and human activities, and has become a major obstacle for the development of arid and semi-arid areas, posing a series of environmental and socio-economic problems. An in-depth understanding of the inner relations among grassland vegetation dynamics, climate change, and human activities is therefore greatly significant for understanding the variation in regional environmental conditions and predicting future developmental trends. Based on MODIS (moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer) NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index) data from 2000 to 2020, our objective is to investigate the spatiotemporal changes of NDVI in the Xilin Gol grassland, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China. Combined with 12 natural factors and human activity factors in the same period, the dominant driving factors and their interactions were identified by using the geographic detector model, and multiple scenarios were also simulated to forecast the possible paths of future NDVI changes in this area. The results showed that: (1) in the past 21 a, vegetation cover in the Xilin Gol grassland exhibited an overall increasing trend, and the vegetation restoration (84.53%) area surpassed vegetation degradation area (7.43%); (2) precipitation, wind velocity, and livestock number were the dominant factors affecting NDVI (the explanatory power of these factors exceeded 0.4). The interaction between average annual wind velocity and average annual precipitation, and between average annual precipitation and livestock number greatly affected NDVI changes (the explanatory power of these factors exceeded 0.7). Moreover, the impact of climate change on NDVI was more significant than human activities; and (3) scenario analysis indicated that NDVI in the Xinlin Gol grassland increased under the scenarios of reduced wind velocity, increased precipitation, and ecological protection. In contrast, vegetation coverage restoration in this area was significantly reduced under the scenarios of unfavorable climate conditions and excessive human activities. This study provides a scientific basis for future vegetation restoration and management, ecological environmental construction, and sustainable natural resource utilization in this area.     

基于格网的青海省雪灾综合风险评估

为了快速、准确地评估青海省区域雪灾的监测精度和雪灾风险等级,基于气象灾害风险度评估的理论和方法,选取了诱发青海省雪灾发生的社会经济、畜牧和气象等致灾因子,通过Matlab软件编程和Arc GIS空间分析相结合的方法,较为系统地分析了青海省雪灾风险度因子的空间分布及雪灾综合风险等级特征。结果表明:除人均GDP和牲畜数量外,积雪深度、可利用草场面积和牧草产量的空间分布格局与雪灾综合风险基本一致;且雪灾综合风险高发区主要集中于青南牧区和东北局部地区,其中主要以玉树、杂多、称多、囊谦、唐古拉、玛沁、达日、甘德、门源和祁连局地为主,西北部柴达木盆地和东部农业区处于低等风险水平,而其余地区处于中等水平。     

人类活动对泾河流域径流时空变化的影响

以泾河流域内14个水文站和189个雨量站的水文序列数据(1966-2005)为基础,分析了泾河流域径流的时空变化特征,并评估了人类活动对径流的影响.结果表明:径流呈明显的减少趋势,尤其是2000年后减少趋势极为显著;各子流域间径流变化存在明显的空间差异,以干流杨家坪以上及雨落坪、杨家坪至张家山区间各子流域的径流系列减少...     

西部荒漠典型区LUCC及景观格局时空变化驱动机制研究 ——以尉犁县为例

在GIS和遥感技术支持下,利用景观生态学的相关指标,采用1995年和2000年Landsat TM影像为基础数据,对塔里木河流域核心区—尉犁县土地利用/覆盖变化过程进行了定量分析。结果显示:土地利用覆被动态变化是"二增三减",即耕地、建设用地面积增加,林地、草地、未利用地面积减少。景观分析表明:在人类活动的干扰下,斑块数目增加,景观破碎度上升,景观多样性下降,草地优势度降低,耕地和未利用地优势度增加,研究区生态系统结构趋向简单,功能趋向减弱。驱动力分析表明,研究区的人类活动历史、人口素质、开发方式对土里利用/覆盖变化的发展趋势有决定作用,降水、风速、土壤质地、植被覆盖度等自然因素对其也有一定影响。     

Long-term variations in runoff of the Syr Darya River Basin under climate change and human activities

In this study,we analyzed the hydrological and meteorological data from the Syr Darya River Basin during the period of 1930–2015 to investigate variations in river runoff and the impacts of climate change and human activities on river runoff.The Syr Darya River,which is supplied by snow and glacier meltwater upstream,is an important freshwater source for Central Asia,as nearly half of the population is concentrated in this area.River runoff in this arid region is sensitive to climate change and human activities.Therefore,estimation of the climatic and hydrological changes and the quantification of the impacts of climate change and human activities on river runoff are of great concern and important for regional water resources management.The long-term trends of hydrological time series from the selected 11 hydrological stations in the Syr Darya River Basin were examined by non-parametric methods,including the Pettitt change point test and Mann-Kendall trend tests.It was found that 8 out of 11 hydrological stations showed significant downward trends in river runof f.Change of river runoff variations occurred in the year around 1960.Moreover,during the study period(1930–2015),annual mean temperature,annual precipitation,and annual potential evapotranspiration in the river basin increased substantially.We employed hydrological sensitivity method to evaluate the impacts of climate change and human activities on river runoff based on precipitation and potential evapotranspiration.It was estimated that human activities accounted for over 82.6%–98.7%of the reduction in river runoff,mainly owing to water withdrawal for irrigation purpose.The observed variations in river runoff can subsequently lead to adverse ecological consequences from an ecological and regional water resources management perspective.     

Transformation among precipitation,surface water,groundwater, and mine water in the Hailiutu River Basin under mining activity

Coal mining has changed the hydrogeological conditions of river basins, and studying how the relationship among different types of water body has changed under the influence of coal mining is of great significance for understanding the regional hydrological cycle. We analyzed the temporal and spatial distribution of hydrochemical properties and environmental isotopes in the Hailiutu River Basin (HRB), China with a mixed model. The results showed that: (1) human activity (e.g., coal mining and agricultural production) causes considerable changes in the hydrochemical properties of surface water in and around the mining areas, and leads to significant increases in the concentrations of Na⁺ and SO2- 4; (2) precipitation is the main source of water vapour in the HRB. The transformation between surface water and groundwater in the natural watershed is mainly affected by precipitation; and (3) in the mining areas, the average contribution rates of precipitation to the recharge of surface water and groundwater increased by 2.6%-7.9% and 2.7%-9.9%, respectively. Groundwater in the Salawusu Formation constitutes up to 61.3%-72.4% of mine water. Overall, this study is beneficial for quantifying the effects of coal mining on local hydrological cycles. The research results can provide a reference for local water resources management and ecological environment improvement.     

青海都兰绿洲-荒漠交错带植物特征值及多样性研究

采用样方调查法对察汗乌苏绿洲-荒漠交错带五个不同封育区植被的群落结构和特征值进行调查分析,并运用α-多样性指数(shannon-Wiener指数、Simpson指数、群落均匀度指数E)分析生物多样性变化.对比2008和2009年不同封育区植被盖度,密度,生物量等植物特征值表明,到2009年,2003年荒滩造林封育区、安...     

Hydrochemical characteristics and evolution of groundwater in the dried-up river oasis of the Tarim Basin,Central Asia

Intense human activities in arid areas have great impacts on groundwater hydrochemical cycling by causing groundwater salinization. The spatiotemporal distributions of groundwater hydrochemistry are crucial for studying groundwater salt migration, and also vital to understand hydrological and hydrogeochemical processes of groundwater in arid inland oasis areas. However, due to constraints posed by the paucity of observation data and intense human activities, these processes are not well known in the dried-up river oases of arid areas. Here, we examined spatiotemporal variations and evolution of groundwater hydrochemistry using data from 199 water samples collected in the Wei-Ku Oasis, a typical arid inland oasis in Tarim Basin of Central Asia. As findings, groundwater hydrochemistry showed a spatiotemporal dynamic, while its spatial distribution was complex. TDS and δ¹⁸O of river water in the upstream increased from west to east, whereas ion concentrations of shallow groundwater increased from northwest to southeast. Higher TDS was detected in spring for shallow groundwater and in summer for middle groundwater. Pronounced spatiotemporal heterogeneity demonstrated the impacts of geogenic, climatic, and anthropogenic conditions. For that, hydrochemical evolution of phreatic groundwater was primarily controlled by rock dominance and evaporation-crystallization process. Agricultural irrigation and drainage, land cover change, and groundwater extraction reshaped the spatiotemporal patterns of groundwater hydrochemistry. Groundwater overexploitation altered the leaking direction between the aquifers, causing the interaction between saltwater and freshwater and the deterioration of groundwater environment. These findings could provide an insight into groundwater salt migration under human activities, and hence be significant in groundwater quality management in arid inland oasis areas.     

柴达木盆地干旱时空变化特征

利用柴达木盆地气象站收集的降水和气温数据,计算了SPI和SPEI两种干旱指数,并用于评价研究区不同时间尺度的干旱特征。然而,由于测站分布稀疏,两种指数在区域干旱评价方面存在不足。在此基础上基于全球范围内的scPDSIpm数据集,并用PDSI指数分析了干旱演变特征及时空分布规律,研究发现：①温度在年际尺度对研究区的干旱情况影响较大,而在月尺度和半年尺度上对研究区干旱情况影响不明显;②PDSI指数与SPEI和SPI干旱指数的相关系数较高（0.7以上）,与两者具有较好的一致性,PDSI更适宜于无资料地区的干旱评价;③研究区中部干旱状况最为严重,东部边缘和西北部干旱频次相对较少,但2000年以来这种趋势得到改善。本研究对评价不同干旱指数的适用性及资料缺乏地区的干旱评价具有重要的指导意义。     

Monitoring and analysis of snow cover change in an alpine mountainous area in the Tianshan Mountains,China

Estimating the snow cover change in alpine mountainous areas (in which meteorological stations are typically lacking) is crucial for managing local water resources and constitutes the first step in evaluating the contribution of snowmelt to runoff and the water cycle. In this paper, taking the Jingou River Basin on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains, China as an example, we combined a new moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) snow cover extent product over China spanning from 2000 to 2020 with digital elevation model (DEM) data to study the change in snow cover and the hydrological response of runoff to snow cover change in the Jingou River Basin under the background of climate change through trend analysis, sensitivity analysis and other methods. The results indicate that from 2000 to 2020, the annual average temperature and annual precipitation in the study area increased and snow cover fraction (SCF) showed obvious signs of periodicity. Furthermore, there were significant regional differences in the spatial distribution of snow cover days (SCDs), which were numerous in the south of the basin and sparse in the central of the basin. Factors affecting the change in snow cover mainly included temperature, precipitation, elevation, slope and aspect. Compared to precipitation, temperature had a greater impact on SCF. The annual variation in SCF was limited above the elevation of 4200 m, but it fluctuated greatly below the elevation of 4200 m. These results can be used to establish prediction models of snowmelt and runoff for alpine mountainous areas with limited hydrological data, which can provide a scientific basis for the management and protection of water resources in alpine mountainous areas.     

近50a西北干旱区气候变化趋势及对荒漠化的影响

西北干旱区干旱少雨,生态环境脆弱,土地荒漠化严重。本文根据近1951-2000年的逐月平均气温和月降水量资料研究了我国西北干旱区气候变化趋势,并结合近年来西北干旱区地表径流量变化,分析其对准噶尔盆地、塔里木盆地、河西走廊和柴达木盆地土地荒漠化影响。研究结果表明:(1)近50a西北干旱区气温都升高,变暖最显著的是北疆和柴达木盆地。降水量有增加趋势,其中南疆降水量增加趋势最大。北疆蒸发量有减少趋势外,其他区蒸发量都在增加,尤其南疆蒸发量增加趋势最大。(2)近50a来由于气候变暖,使蒸发量增大,塔克拉马干沙漠、河西走廊沙漠区和柴达木沙漠区的干旱危害加剧,这必然导致沙漠化的易发和其进程的加速。北疆气温升高,降水量增加,而蒸发量减少,有利于古尔班通古特沙漠区沙漠化进程的减缓。(3)气候变化和地表径流量变化有利于准噶尔盆地和塔里木盆地的土地荒漠化逆转,而使河西走廊和柴达木盆地的土地荒漠化发展迅速。     

基于SPOT/NDVI华北地区植被变化动态监测与评价

利用1998-2011年SPOT NDVI数据反映华北地区植被覆盖变化情况,结合该地区土地覆盖数据以及1982-2011年84个气象站点的气温和降水数据,分别从时间和空间两个方面对其进行植被动态监测与评价,并简要分析其变化原因。结果表明:1)从时间上来看,华北地区NDVI在1998-2011年总体呈增长趋势,表明该地区植被覆盖情况整体上得到改善,其中,森林和农田NDVI增长最快;2)从空间上来看,华北地区地表植被覆盖得到改善的区域比退化区域面积要大,其中,森林和农田的恢复效果最为明显,而灌丛、草地、沙漠退化面积均超过改善面积,表明华北地区水土流失和荒漠化现象依然严峻;3)在华北地区气候长期趋于暖干化的背景下,华北植被变化与降水变化关系比与气温变化关系密切,表明植被覆盖变化受降水影响较大,此外,人类活动也是引起植被覆盖变化的重要驱动因子。     

气候变化和人类活动对蒙古高原植被覆盖变化的影响

基于全球监测与模型研究组（GIMMS）归一化植被指数(NDVI),对蒙古高原地区1981-2006年植被覆盖的时空变化进行了研究,并从气候变化和人类活动的角度,分析了植被覆盖变化的原因。1981-2006年蒙古高原的植被覆盖时空分布具有明显的地带性特征,森林区及荒漠区植被覆盖呈现小幅下降趋势,草原区呈现上升趋势,蒙古高原NDVI分布从东北向西南、从高原南北边缘地带向中心地带呈明显的规律性变化：高原东北部的大兴安岭地区NDVI最高,蒙古国北部的杭爱山脉次之,西南部荒漠区的NDVI最低。研究表明: 植被覆盖变化是气候变化和人类活动共同作用的结果,蒙古高原地区的降水变化是植被覆盖变化的重要原因,森林砍伐、河套耕作及城镇化等人类活动则是导致具有相似气候条件的内蒙古与蒙古国植被覆盖变化区域差异的原因。     

准噶尔盆地地表反照率时空变化特征及其影响因素分析

地表反照率变化影响地表辐射收支与能量平衡,从而对区域和全球气候产生影响。以准噶尔盆地为研究对象,利用MODIS卫星遥感数据产品MOD09A1反演地表短波反照率,结合气象数据和植被指数分析准噶尔盆地2001—2018年荒漠草地地表反照率时空变化特征及其影响因素。结果表明:准噶尔盆地地表反照率空间分布地域差异明显,地表反照率年均值为0.303,整体呈东北高、西南低的特点;其年际变化速率呈减少趋势,平均每年为1.4×10^-4,减少面积约占总面积的52.8%;四季空间分布变化明显,春、夏、秋三季空间分布相似,冬季值最高(0.551),夏季最低(0.203)。准噶尔盆地东北缘的阿尔泰山地表反照率年内变化较为剧烈;生长季归一化植被指数(NDVI)值大小为:夏季>秋季>春季。准噶尔盆地整体地表反照率与NDVI呈负相关,大部分区域与平均气温呈负相关,与降水呈正相关,且相关性大小依次为气温>NDVI>降水。MODIS反演结果与地面实测值之间存在显著的相关性(R²=0.8908,P<0.01),均方根误差为0.014。为了解准噶尔盆地陆面特征,客观评价全球气候变化下干旱区陆面变化及其正负反馈响应机制提供一定的理论依据。     

榆林地区植被指数动态变化及其对气候和人类活动的响应

榆林地区是中国典型生态脆弱区,植被生态系统对气候变化和人类活动影响较为敏感。以榆林地区2000—2015年MODIS NDVI为基础,结合气温、降水数据,利用线性趋势法、相关系数、偏相关系数及缓冲区方法,分析了区域NDVI(归一化差异植被指数)动态变化及其对气候和人类活动的响应,结果表明:(1)榆林地区总体上NDVI较小,植被覆盖水平较低。2000—2015年NDVI以每年0.009 6的线性速率递增,空间上主要表现出线性增加趋势,占总面积的97.06%,减少趋势面积较小且主要与人类活动有关,分布在区域西南部山区、城镇附近及中、东部的河流谷地。(2)相关分析表明,榆林地区NDVI与气温以负相关为主,而与降水以正相关为主,反映出干旱、半干旱地区水分是植物生长的主导因子。(3)NDVI变化过程反映出人类活动范围中,市级行政中心缓冲区人类活动强度高于县级行政中心缓冲区。市级行政中心缓冲区范围可划分为5 km以内受人类活动剧烈影响区域、5~9km受人类活动影响递减区域和9 km以外未受人类活动影响区域。