Effects of climate change on spatiotemporal patterns of tropical cyclone tracks and their implications for coastal agriculture in Myanmar

Important aspects for understanding the effects of climate change on tropical cyclones (TCs) are the frequency of TCs and their tracking patterns. Coastal areas are increasingly threatened by rising sea levels and associated storm surges brought on by TCs. Rice production in Myanmar relies strongly on low-lying coastal areas. This study aims to provide insights into the effects of global warming on TCs and the implications for sustainable development in vulnerable coastal areas in Myanmar. Using TC records from the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship dataset during the 30-year period from 1983 to 2012, a hot spot analysis based on Getis-Ord (Gi*) statistics was conducted to identify the spatiotemporal patterns of TC tracks along the coast of Myanmar. The results revealed notable changes in some areas along the central to southern coasts during the study period. These included a considerable increase in TC tracks (p value?<?0.01) near the Ayeyarwady Delta coast, otherwise known as “the rice bowl” of the nation. This finding aligns with trends in published studies and reinforced the observed trends with spatial statistics. With the intensification of TCs due to global warming, such a significant increase in TC experiences near the major rice-producing coastal region raises concerns about future agricultural sustainability.

     

Characterisation of spatial patterns of regional paddy rice with time series remotely sensed data

Remote sensing has facilitated the identification of acreage and spatial distribution of field crops with obvious seasonal dynamics. The primary objective of this study is to identify the spatial patterns of double-season early rice, single-season middle rice and double-season late rice of Hunan Province and Yuanjiang City, China, in 2010, using two kinds of time series remotely sensed imagery: 8-day composite MODIS surface reflectance product data (MOD09A1) and HJ-1A/B satellite images with a 4-day revisit period. The available MODIS and HJ-1 CCD images of transplanting and heading stages were first assured in accordance with the schedules of local traditional paddy fields tillage. Based on the MOD09A1 data product, time series normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) images were calculated and smoothed to remove the noise and the atmospheric effects. Second, the spatial distribution and planting acreage of three types of rice of Hunan Province were derived from combining the enhanced vegetation index and land surface water index according to the water background and variation characteristics of NDVI values at transplanting and heading stages. Conversely, a two-test procedure was used to finish the identification of paddy rice in Yuanjiang City using time series HJ-CCD imagery. The first test was to derive the potential rice pixels using the NDVI image (?NDVI) between heading and transplanting stages, and the second test was to remove the non-rice pixels using maximum likelihood supervised classification. The experimental results showed that three types of rice were mainly distributed along the Dongting Lake Basin in Hunan Province and the relative errors were ?10.99, 1.46 and ?5.87 %, respectively, while they were primarily planted in the northern plains of Dongting Lake in Yuanjiang City, where the relative errors were 12.1, 16.7 and 0.8 %, respectively. We conclude that transplanting and heading stages are the best phenological combinations for identifying paddy rice through remote sensing time series analysis, and this study can provide a basis for evaluating paddy rice yield on a large scale .     

Monitoring saline intrusion in the Ayeyarwady Delta,Myanmar, using data from the Sentinel-2 satellite mission

Paddy and Water Environment - Summer rice cannot be grown near the coast of the Ayeyarwady Delta, Myanmar, because of the high salinity in river water during the dry season. This means that saline...     

Assessment of paddy fields’ damage caused by Cyclone Nargis using MODIS time-series images (2004–2013)

Paddy and Water Environment - The Ayeyarwady Delta in the Bay of Bengal, the rice bowl of Myanmar, depends on natural conditions, especially rainfall. During the dry season, the delta’s...     

Impact of seawater intrusion control on the environment,land use and household incomes in a coastal area

Agricultural production in the coastal wetlands of Asia is often hindered by salinity intrusion caused by tidal fluctuation. This paper reports changes in environmental and socio-economic conditions that followed the phased construction and operation of sluices for controlling seawater intrusion from 1994 –2000 in a coastal area of the Mekong River Delta, Vietnam. Canal water salinity decreased rapidly upstream of sluices, allowing rice cropping intensification and increased rice production in the eastern part of the study area. However, the livelihoods of farmers in the western part were adversely affected due to cessation of supply of brackish water that was needed for brackish-water shrimp farming, while the acid sulphate soils present there posed problems for rice cultivation. The poor farmers and landless people suffered more because the fishery resource that they depended on declined sharply due to reduced salinity and increased acidity in the canal water. The findings confirmed that the environment and resource use in the coastal lands are very sensitive to external intervention. A clear understanding of the socio-economic and environmental impacts of salinity control measures in coastal areas can help planning to enhance farmers' incomes while minimizing negative environmental impacts. Land-use policy formulation, planning and management should adopt a more holistic approach, taking into account the interests of all resource users, especially the poor, instead of focusing on any particular sector.     

A modeling approach for assessing rice cropping cycle affected by flooding,salinity intrusion,and monsoon rains in the Mekong Delta,Vietnam

We developed a crop scheduling model for rice cultivation in the Vietnam Mekong Delta (VMD), focusing on the adaptive behavior of crop planning to various water resource constraints. In addition, we also examined the effects of environmental change on rice cultivation in the last decade. In the VMD, multiple rice cropping is practiced under a variety of adverse water conditions, including flooding, salinity intrusion, and irregular monsoon rains. These environmental changes influence the durations of growing seasons and the number of crops per year, resulting in changes in productivity. To validate the performance of the model, we compared model estimates for the heading date and changes in leaf area index at nine sites with estimates of these parameters derived from MODIS satellite time series data for the period 2002–2006. The root mean square errors of heading date between the modeled and satellite data in the upper, middle, and coastal regions of the delta were 17.6, 11.2, and 13.0 days, respectively. Based on the model, we examined case studies to assess the changes in cropping cycles and crop failures in the VMD due to extreme flooding in 2000 and salinity intrusion in 2004 by applying evaluation indices defined by available period for cultivation (APC) and safe margin for cropping (SMC) which is defined as the marginal time between APC and the period required for cultivation. Findings of case studies suggested that a small difference in the SMC of the cropping pattern is critical to the stability and productive capacity of the rice crop.     

Combining multi-source data to explore a mechanism for the effects of micrometeorological elements on nutrient variations in paddy land water

Paddy land plays a key role in global crop production. Thus, paddy land water is a potential source of nitrogen and phosphorus; both nutrients largely contribute to non-point source pollution because they usually vary closely with micrometeorological elements (MEs) during the growth period. However, few studies have focused on the mechanism of co-variation between nutrients and MEs at the field scale. The relationships between nutrients in the paddy land water and MEs as well as soil water content, soil temperature, and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) are still unclear. In this paper, an in situ experiment was designed to obtain 5 years of meteorological data and nutrient data (nitrogen and phosphorus); the size of the experiment plot is in accordance with the spatial resolution of NDVI data. Multi-source meteorological and satellite data were integrated to explore the mechanism of co-variation. The results show that precipitation, air temperature, and solar radiation are the three MEs significantly affecting the nitrogen concentration in the paddy land water during the growth period. The air temperature is the most important ME influencing the phosphorus concentration. At the same time, the NDVI, as an effective indicator of the photosynthetic potential of rice used to explore the relationship between nutrients, has a prominent influence on soluble nutrients, especially on dissolved phosphorus. These findings could significantly improve our understanding about the responses of paddy land nutrients during the growth period to the surrounding drivers, inclusive of MEs, soil water, soil temperature, and NDVI. Undoubtedly, it is a potentially helpful means to monitor the sources of non-point pollution.     

Salinity intrusion and rice production in Red River Delta under changing climate conditions

This study was carried out to identify the vulnerability of rice production to salinity intrusion arising from climate change in Giao Thuy, a coastal district of Nam Dinh Province, located in Red River Delta in Vietnam. From the analysis of historical climate data at Nam Dinh city, both mean maximum and minimum temperatures increased by about 0.3 and 0.1 °C per decade, respectively, during the period of 1961–2010. Salt concentration of the river water was higher at the irrigation gate closer to river mouth (Con Nhat) than at the upstream gate (Ha Mieu), which generally increased from 2003 to 2012, with the average maximum concentration up to 2.13 % at Con Nhat gate in 2010. The salt water concentration in the riverside field outside the dyke reached 3.6 %, while among the fields within dyke the salinity was only 0.7 % at maximum in January 2013, and the values were higher in paddy fields close to the dyke than far from the dyke. Average yield among the selected 27 fields from 2011 summer to 2013 spring rice was higher in spring rice (748 g m^?2) but lower in summer rice (417 g m^?2) mainly due to unfavorable weather such as cold spell at flowering and flood at harvesting time. Rice yield was lowest in general in the most downstream commune Giao Thien, and was significantly lower in field located close to the dyke than those far from the dyke. This spatial variability of rice yield may not be directly attributable to salinity, but to the other factors such as shift of irrigation intake gate to further upstream and/or different management such as less input of N fertilizer and use of traditional local variety.     

Mapping rice-planted areas using time-series synthetic aperture radar data for the Asia-RiCE activity

In Asia, rice is a staple cereal crop and the continent accounts for about 90 % of the global rice production and consumption. Statistics on the areas planted with rice or production of paddy rice are fundamental to agriculture-related decisions or policy-making. Asia-Rice Crop Estimation & Monitoring (Asia-RiCE) aims to develop rice-related information, such as paddy field maps, rice growing conditions, yield, and production, using remote sensing tools and disseminate the same at the local and global scales. In this paper, we propose a methodology for the identification of rice-planted areas by using multi-temporal SAR images; a software named INternational Asian Harvest mOnitoring system for Rice (INAHOR) was developed to manipulate the proposed algorithm. The INAHOR uses the imagery observed both at the time of planting of rice and grown-up stages. In this study, two thresholds needed for the INAHOR were optimized based on the detailed land cover data collected through a field survey. Rice-planted areas across the study area in Japan were identified by the INAHOR using the RADARSAT-2 Wide Fine beam mode data. The classification results of RADARSAT-2 VV and VH polarizations were compared. The data with VH polarization showed a higher total accuracy of 83 % with ?20.5 dB and 3.0 dB for the minimum and range thresholds, respectively. The INAHOR is currently being used with the RADARSAT-2, ALOS, and ALOS-2 SAR data in the Southeast Asian countries to assess the robustness of the thresholds and classification accuracies under the framework of Asia-RiCE.     

Remote sensing-based assessment of impact of Phailin cyclone on rice in Odisha,India

Assessing the nature and extent of damage due to natural calamities remains one of the thrust areas in monitoring resource inventory through remote sensing. The effect of the cyclone Phailin and the post-incessant rains during second fortnight of October 2013 on coastal Odisha was studied in terms of rice area flooded, submerged and damaged. Multi-temporal SAR data were analysed to obtain the rice mask, and from this rice mask, the flood affected rice area was determined. Taluka-wise and district-wise crop loss proportion was estimated, and the overall production loss has been estimated. SAR data aided in delineation of flooded regions, while AWiFS NDVI data of subsequent dates showed both continued inundation and crop vigour status post-flood time period. The ground truth indicated that a major portion of the inundated region was not rice but was typha grasses and harvested rice field which should not be accounted as damage to rice crop. The damage on crop yield was difficult to assess; however, the inundation of the crop at panicle initiation and flowering would have impact on grain filling (results in chaffiness) and was considered as completely damaged. Most of the current inundated rice regions fall in this category. It was estimated that a total of 0.167 million hectares and 0.37 million tons of rice crop was lost in the cyclone and floods. The district-level percentage area of rice flooded was communicated to State Remote Sensing Centre in four days timeframe. The overall accuracy obtained for the validation of the ground truth sites was 91.5 %.     

Impacts of climate change on rice market and production capacity in the Lower Mekong Basin

The supply of water is affected by climate changes. In addition, high economic growth in the lower Mekong River countries including two large rice exporters is expected to reduce the per capita consumption of rice as incomes grow. Consequently, the need exist to investigate changes in supply and demand using econometric models of rice markets in the countries, where water supplies are expected to change. The objective of this research is to clarify impacts of water supply changes on rice producers and consumers using supply and demand models of rice considering changes in the water supply to aid in producing agricultural policies and plans. The following two simulations were conducted in this assessment: (a) baseline and (b) CC_B2. The simulation of the baseline includes the assumption that the evapotranspiration (ET) of each province after 2000 is the average quantity of ET from 1995 to 1999. The simulation of the CC_B2 includes the assumptions that ET of each province after 2010 accords with the IPCC socioeconomic scenario B2. The simulation results suggest that climate change will depress wet season rice production in Cambodia and Mekong River Delta (MRD) region in Vietnam, and that of dry season rice in the MRD region in Vietnam and northeastern region (Isan) Thailand. The simulation results also indicate that climate change will increase farm prices of rice in Cambodia, Vietnam, and Thailand. The results suggest that climate changes will weigh on the livelihood of rice consumers, especially those of poor rural populations.

     

Recent irrigation practices in the Upper East Bank of the Chao Phraya Delta

This study aims to investigate recent practices on water allocation and cultivation in the Upper East Bank of the Chao Phraya Delta in Thailand, by using data collected by RID local offices, questionnaires, and analyses of satellite images. As a result, we have identified the advantage that upstream areas of irrigation canals have enjoyed, namely the preferential water allocation over the downstream areas. This advantage was strongly associated with the intensive cropping patterns of rice: the upstream areas were estimated to conduct almost continuous rice cultivation throughout a year. In addition, the intensive rice cultivation would partly be supported by water from private shallow wells, which were mostly concentrated in the upstream areas of main canals. Those shallow wells would be used at the beginning of the dry season and in drought years, when farmers could not expect water supply from irrigation canals. The result indicated that the conjunctive use of surface and ground water would be practiced in this region.     

Impacts of climate change on rice market and production capacity in the Lower Mekong Basin

The supply of water is affected by climate changes. In addition, high economic growth in the lower Mekong River countries including two large rice exporters is expected to reduce the per capita consumption of rice as incomes grow. Consequently, the need exist to investigate changes in supply and demand using econometric models of rice markets in the countries, where water supplies are expected to change. The objective of this research is to clarify impacts of water supply changes on rice producers and consumers using supply and demand models of rice considering changes in the water supply to aid in producing agricultural policies and plans. The following two simulations were conducted in this assessment: (a) baseline and (b) CC_B2. The simulation of the baseline includes the assumption that the evapotranspiration (ET) of each province after 2000 is the average quantity of ET from 1995 to 1999. The simulation of the CC_B2 includes the assumptions that ET of each province after 2010 accords with the IPCC socioeconomic scenario B2. The simulation results suggest that climate change will depress wet season rice production in Cambodia and Mekong River Delta (MRD) region in Vietnam, and that of dry season rice in the MRD region in Vietnam and northeastern region (Isan) Thailand. The simulation results also indicate that climate change will increase farm prices of rice in Cambodia, Vietnam, and Thailand. The results suggest that climate changes will weigh on the livelihood of rice consumers, especially those of poor rural populations.     

Estimating the potential effects of climate change on rice production in Thailand

Paddy and Water Environment - This study estimates the potential effects of climate change on rice production in Thailand based on historical data from 1989 to 2009. An econometric panel data model...     

Determination of the potential land for securing double-rice cropping in the Cambodian Mekong Delta,based on a sub-area based modeling of flood inundation

Inundated areas of the Mekong Delta are the most important regions for agricultural production in both Cambodia and Vietnam. With population growth and increasing water demand in the dry season, effectively managing available water in the region is vital for crop production. This study is aimed at developing a sub-area based modeling of flood inundation model in order to analyze flood inundation processes in the Cambodian Mekong Delta as a basis for introducing semi-flood control for new cropping systems such as double-rice cropping. The simulated results of the flood inundation model from 2002 to 2003 were utilized for estimating land appearance in the dividing sub-area, and the potential of securing land for double-rice cropping was determined based on the period of land appearance and the cropping schedule. In order to realize the available water for double cropping, consideration of the effect of operating canal gates for controlling the early and receding inundation are crucially necessary. By considering the operation of control gates facilities, the potential land for securing double-rice cropping exceeded about 50 km² compared to the 34 km² of the actual land used for recession rice (about 30 and 20% of the total selected area, respectively). The study confirms that the sub-area based modeling of inundation model can be a helpful tool for water management in the Cambodia Mekong Delta.     

Continuous Monitoring of Visible and Near-Infrared Band Reflectance from a Rice Paddy for Determining Nitrogen Uptake Using Digital Cameras

Abstract

A two-band digital imaging system —one band for the visible red band (RED, 630?670 nm) and the other for the near infrared band (NIR, 820?900 nm)— was devised and positioned at a height of 12 m above a rice field of 300 m² in area during the 2007 growing season. The imaging system automatically logged bird’seye view images at 10-min intervals from 0800?1600 every day. Radiometric corrections for the pairs of two-band images were done using solar irradiance sensors and preceding calibrations to calculate daily band-reflectance and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) values for 9 plots of rice plants, with 3 levels of planting density and basal fertilization. The daily- averaged reflectance values in the RED and the NIR bands showed different but smooth seasonal changing patterns according to the growth of plants. At the maximum tiller number and the panicle formation stages, the RED and NIR reflectance values had correlation coefficients (r) of 0.79 and 0.81 with above-ground nitrogen absorption per unit land area (NA, g m-²), respectively, whereas the NDVI using the two band reflectance values showed r-value of -0.13. An empirically derived equation for the NA using two band reflectance values showed r-value of 0.96 and a root mean square of error (RMSE) 0.5 g m^–2 (10% of the mean observed NA) in the estimation for the original (not validated) data set acquired at the maximum tiller number and the panicle formation stages. The results indicated that reflectance observation in the RED and NIR bands using the digital imaging system was potentially effective for assessing rice growth.     

Analysis of Common Canopy Reflectance Spectra for Indicating Leaf Nitrogen Concentrations in Wheat and Rice

Abstract

Non-destructive monitoring and diagnosis of plant nitrogen (N) concentration are of significant importance for precise N management and productivity forecasting in field crops. The present study was conducted to identify the common spectra wavebands and canopy reflectance spectral parameters for indicating leaf nitrogen concentration (LNC, mg N g-¹ DW) and to determine quantitative relationships of LNC to canopy reflectance spectra in both rice (Oryza sativa L.) and wheat (Triticum aestivum L.). Ground-based canopy spectral reflectance and LNC were measured with seven field experiments consisting of seven different wheat cultivars and five different rice cultivars and varied N fertilization levels across three growing seasons for wheat and four growing seasons for rice. All possible ratio vegetation indices (RVI), difference vegetation indices (DVI), and normalized difference vegetation indices (NDVI) of key wavebands from the MSR16 radiometer were calculated. The results showed that LNC of wheat and rice increased with increasing N fertilization rates. Canopy reflectance, however, was a more complicated relationship under different N application rates. In the near infrared portion of the spectrum (760?1220 nm), canopy spectral reflectance increased with increasing N supply, whereas in the visible region (460?710 nm), canopy reflectance decreased with increasing N supply. For both rice and wheat, LNC was best estimated at 610, 660 and 680 nm. Among all possible RVI, DVI and NDVI of key bands from the MSR16 radiometer, NDVI(1220, 610) and RVI(1220, 610) were most highly correlated to LNC in both wheat and rice. In addition, the correlations of NDVI(1220, 610) and RVI(1220, 610) to LNC were found to be higher than those of individual wavebands at 610, 660 and 680 nm in both wheat and rice. Thus LNC in both wheat and rice could be indicated with common wavebands and vegetation indices, but separate regression equations are necessary for precisely describing the dynamic change patterns of LNC in wheat and rice. When independent data were fit to the derived equations, the root mean square error (RMSE) values for the predicted LNC with NDVI(1220, 610) and RVI(1220, 610) relative to the observed values were 10.50% and 10.52% in wheat, and 13.04% and 12.61% in rice, respectively, indicating a good fit. These results should improve the knowledge on non-destructive monitoring of leaf N status in cereal crops.     

基于PALSAR雷达数据与多时相TM/ETM+影像的海南岛土地利用分类研究

大面积范围内准确获取土地利用/覆盖变化信息对生产管理和生态环境评价都具有重要的意义。本研究联合2010年25 m分辨率的ALOS PALSAR L波段雷达和2009~2010年多时相Landsat TM/ETM+影像，利用决策树分类方法对海南岛土地利用类型进行分类。结果表明，PALSAR雷达对森林和水体均有较高的识别精度，生产者精度和用户精度均超过88％，但耕地与建筑分类精度最高仅为77％。通过结合森林、建筑与耕地的光谱信息及其年际变化特征，采用多时相TM/ETM+影像合成的NDVI最大值和最小值对PALSAR分类结果进行修正。修正后结果的精度均有显著提升，森林、水体和建筑的生产者和用户精度均超过了92％，相应耕地的精度也分别达到了91％和74％，总体分类精度达到94％，Kappa系数为0.92。本研究表明，联合PALSAR雷达和多时相Landsat系列光学遥感影像，在解决热带地区影像数据源匮乏的同时，能够显著提高土地利用分类精度，具有良好的应用前景。     

Is long-term climate change beneficial or harmful for rice total factor productivity in Japan: evidence from a panel data analysis

Under global warming, influences of heat stress and flooding on rice production are becoming critical in Japan, but it is still under discussion whether future climate change is beneficial or harmful for Japanese rice production. This study aims to evaluate the impacts of long-term climate change on rice total factor productivity (TFP) by a panel data analysis. We estimate a regression model to link rice TFP to climate factors via yield, quality, and flood influence by using crop models, and then project future TFP levels from the results of the high-resolution model for interdisciplinary research on climate (MIROC). The results demonstrate that climate change has a positive effect in the northern regions, such as Hokkaido and Tohoku, but it decreases rice TFP in other regions, especially in the western regions, after the 2050s. Furthermore, climate change increases fluctuations in rice TFP of the western regions. To overcome negative impacts, a forward shift in the rice transplanting time is effective. Second, the potential impacts of climate factors, shown by the elasticity values of rice TFP, are 0.18 (via yield), 0.09 (via quality), and ?0.03 (via flood influence), but these climate impacts are weaker than socio-economic factors, such as economies of scale and research and development capital stocks. Third, regional gaps in rice TFP are enlarged over time because of different impacts of climate factors as well as socio-economic factors. Such fact-findings can be used to reconsider agricultural policy.     

Agronomic performance of late-season rice under different tillage,straw, and nitrogen management

In double rice-cropping system in China, zero tillage in late-season rice with straw return from early season rice is an emerging technology for saving inputs, shortening the lag time between rice crops, avoiding straw burning, and conserving natural resources. The objective of this 2-year field study was to determine the effects of tillage and straw return on N uptake, grain yield, and N use efficiency of late-season rice. Treatments were arranged in a split-plot design with four combinations of tillage and straw return as main plots and three N management practices as subplots. Tillage was either conventional soil puddling or zero tillage with newly harvested crop residue from early season rice either removed or placed on the soil surface without incorporation. The N treatments were zero-N control, site-specific N management (SSNM), and farmers’ N-fertilizer practice (FFP). Straw return regardless of tillage or N management did not reduce rice yield. In the second year, straw return significantly increased grain yield in the zero-N control. Chlorophyll meter readings at heading and total N uptake at maturity were higher with straw return in the zero-N control, suggesting that straw provides nutrients to rice in the late growing period. Zero tillage did not reduce N uptake, grain yield, and N use efficiency compared with conventional tillage. Despite large differences in timing and rate of N application between FFP and SSNM, these two N treatments resulted in comparable N uptake and grain yield of late-season rice regardless of tillage and straw return. These results suggest that zero tillage after early rice with straw return could replace conventional tillage for late rice in the double rice-cropping system in China.