Crop Diversification in Coping with Extreme Weather Events in China

Apart from the long-term effects of climate change, the frequency and severity of extreme weather events have been increasing. Given the risks posed by climate change, particularly the changes in extreme weather events, the question of how to adapt to these changes and mitigate their negative impacts has received great attention from policy makers. The overall goals of this study are to examine whether farmers adapt to extreme weather events through crop diversification and which factors influence farmers＇ decisions on crop diversification against extreme weather events in China. To limit the scope of this study, we focus on drought and flood events only. Based on a unique large-scale household survey in nine provinces, this study finds that farmers respond to extreme weather events by increasing crop diversification. Their decision to diversify crops is significantly influenced by their experiences of extreme weather events in the previous year. Such results are understandable because farmers＇ behaviors are normally based on their expectations. Moreover, household characteristics also affect farmers＇ decisions on crop diversification strategy, and their effects differ by farmers＇ age and gender. This paper concludes with several policy implications.     

Overview of Impacts of Climate Change and Adaptation in China’s Agriculture

The purpose of this paper is to document the likely impacts of climate change on China＇s agriculture and the current adaptation efforts made by government and farmers. The review of literature shows that climate change will have a significant impact on agriculture, primarily through its effect on crop yields. The extent of predicted impacts highly depends on the crop, the CO2 fertilization effect assumption and adaptation abilities. Market response to the production shocks resulting from climate change will lessen the impacts on agricultural production predicted by natural scientists. On adaptation, the government＇s major efforts have been in the developing new technologies, reforming extension system and enhancing institutional capacity. Farmers do adapt to climate change, but their adaptation measures cannot fully offset the negative impacts of climate change. The paper concludes and makes implications for future studies.     

Climate change and Chinese farmers: Perceptions and determinants of adaptive strategies

Farmers' perceptions, beliefs, adaptive strategies, and barriers regarding climate change are critical to promoting sustainable ecosystems and societal stability. This paper is based on an extensive survey of 1 500 farmers and their households in Henan Province in China during 2013–2014. Henan is the largest agricultural province in China with over 51 million farmers. The survey results showed that approximately 57% of the respondents perceived the direct impact of climate change during the past 10 years, with 70.3% believing that climate change posed a risk to their livelihood. Not surprisingly, most farmers reported that they have adopted new measures to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change. The main barriers hindering farmers' adopting adaptation measures were lack of funds and timely information. A multinomial logit model revealed that land ownership, knowledge of crop variety and the causes of climate change, as well as the belief of climate change, were all positively related to the likelihood of employing adaptive strategies. Moreover, the percentage of households engaging in agriculture activity, and years of engaging in farming were both negatively correlated with famer's likelihood of adopting adaptation strategies. More importantly, farmers with high incomes were less likely to adopt adaptive strategies and more willing to engage in other business activities. In conclusion, it is important to communicate climate change related information and government policies in rural areas, promote farmer associations and other educational outreach efforts to assist Chinese farmers to deal with climate change.     

Farmers＇ Character and Behavior of Fertilizer Application - Evidence from a Survey of Xinxiang County, Henan Province, China

Agricultural chemical use has caused a public concern over environmental issue while decisions about applying chemicals are made by individual farmers. The critical decision-making role of farmers relative to agricultural chemical use creates a need for accurate information on their perceptions of various chemical-related hazards and the factors that may influence such judgments. Based on data collected from 177 land operators at Xinxiang County in Henan Province of China, an empirical analysis is conducted to examine the relationship between farmers＇ character and the behavior of fertilizer application. Study findings reveal that： the characteristics of household head and household, and the nature of farming management positively affect the amount of fertilizers applied; information on fertilizers and the knowledge about environmental impact of fertilizer application have negative impacts by contrast. To formulate effective pollution control policies at the farm level, it is imperative for policy-makers to convey information to producers by demonstration projects, technical assistance, and education programs. Under a changed political environment, some combination of education and economic incentives could be lower cost and more effective tools for achieving desired environmental conservative goals.     

Research on Farmers＇ Response to Microeconomic Policies and Its Impact on Land Degradation in Zhaodong Heilongjiang Province

The livelihoods of farmers are responding to the mioroeconomic policies and result in many changes in the landuse pattern and landscape, and the farmer＇s attitude to the natural resources conservation, specifically in the land degradation. In order to find the relationship between the farmers＇ response to the microeeonomic policies and land degradation, the authors surveyed 120 household in three villages in the black soil zone in Heilongjiang Province. Based on the feedback of the questionnaires, the authors established a model to analyze the impact. The results demonstrated that land degradation was impacted by farmers behaviors in the process of the adjustment of agricultural structures in the city of Zhaodong. And the main factors acted on the land degradation were the agricultural labour education level, the transfer of the labour from agricultural production, the price of the agricultural production materials, and the land scale management. The authors put forward some suggestions for sustainable agriculture based on the analysis on the topic.     

Overview of Impacts of Climate Change and Adaptation in China's Agriculture

The purpose of this paper is to document the likely impacts of climate change on China’s agriculture and the current adaptation efforts made by government and farmers.The review of literature shows that climate change will have a significant impact on agriculture,primarily through its effect on crop yields.The extent of predicted impacts highly depends on the crop,the CO2 fertilization effect assumption and adaptation abilities.Market response to the production shocks resulting from climate change will lessen the impacts on agricultural production predicted by natural scientists.On adaptation,the government’s major efforts have been in the developing new technologies,reforming extension system and enhancing institutional capacity.Farmers do adapt to climate change,but their adaptation measures cannot fully offset the negative impacts of climate change.The paper concludes and makes implications for future studies.     

Irrigation Water Use Efficiency of Farmers and Its Determinants： Evidence from a Survey in Northwestern China

Irrigation water shortage is becoming an increasingly serious problem in agricultural production. In this case, it is very important for policy makers to take measures to improve irrigation water use efficiency, especially in the water-scarce areas. In this paper, the data envelopment analysis （DEA） techniques, based on the concept of input-specific technical efficiency were used to develop farm-level technical efficiency measures and sub-vector efficiencies for irrigation water use. The Tobit regression technique was then adopted to identify the factors that influence irrigation water efficiency differentials under the shortage of water resources. Based on a sample data of 432 wheat farmers in northwestern China, our experimental results of the DEA analysis showed the average technical efficiency of 0.6151. It suggested that wheat farmers could increase their production by as much as 38.49% by using inputs more efficiently. Further, the mean irrigation water efficiency of 0.3065, suggested that wheat farmers could produce the same quantity of wheat using the same quantity of inputs but with 69.35% less water. The results of the Tobit regression analysis showed that the farmer＇s age, income, education level, and the farm size tended to affect the degree of irrigation water efficiency positively, and the channel conditions and different irrigation methods made a significant impact on irrigation water use efficiency. Furthermore, the arrangements of exclusive water property rights and competitive water price mechanism have effectively encouraged the water saving behavior of farmers. These results are valuable for policy makers since it could help to guide policies towards high irrigation water use efficiency.     

SWOT Analysis and Development Strategies for Chinese Farmers＇ Professional Cooperatives

With the development of China＇s market economy, the agricultural products＇ market has changed from the seller＇s market into the buyer＇s market. Therefore, the limitations of the household contract responsibility system gradually appeared. The farmers professional cooperatives not only covered the limitations but also effectively connected the small-scale farmers with the competitive market by increasing the farmers＇ organizational degree. However, during the development process of farmers＇ professional cooperatives, many problems were exposed. By using SWOT analysis belonging to the field of enterprise strategic management, this paper discussed the opportunities and threats of the external environment, as well as the strengths and weaknesses of the internal environment of Chinese farmers＇ professional cooperatives. Thereby, it proposed some development strategies for Chinese farmers professional cooperatives in the current stage .     

An Awareness-Adoption Matrix for Strategic Decision Making in Agricultural Development Projects： A Case Study in Yunnan Province, China

Significant achievements have been made in generating sustainable agricultural technologies in developing countries. Usually, these new technologies have been more effective in increasing production and productivity than existing technologies. However, many new technologies considered ＇effective＇ have not been successful in alleviating the associated sustainability problems, due to poor adoption by targeted users. Success of any novel technical intervention should be judged on the basis of how widespread adoption is in the target area by targeted users. In this context, a case study identified the factors affecting farmers＇ adoption of improved technologies extended by an agricultural development project in a rural Village in Yunnan Province, China. Initial adoption/adaptation of project technologies was influenced by farmers＇ awareness of the technology. Farmers were more aware of polythene mulch, contour cultivation, intercropping and tree planting technologies than others. This led to a comparatively high initial uptake of polythene mulch, contour cultivation, sweet chestnut, and intercropping technologies. Farmers had inadequate knowledge about some Project technologies, the adoption of which was particularly low. This reveals the need for increasing farmers＇ awareness about the rationale for Project technologies to achieve greater adoption/adaptation of project technologies by farmers over wider areas. Farmers＇ testing of the technology leads to better adoption/adaptation compared to mere awareness. However, considerable time and resources are required for testing/trying technologies. This justifies the usefulness of comparatively quick and less resource demanding options for awareness creation. Development of effective cropping technologies is important for sustainable agricultural development. The success of any agricultural development project, especially in terms of improving sustainability, depends on how widely those improved technologies are adopted/adapted by farmers in the targeted region. Therefore, farmers＇ adoption of technologies should be a key criterion for judging the success of any project. The awareness-adoption matrix is a useful tool to guide research and development projects to achieve expected adoption/adaptation of technologies. Use of the matrix helps identification of weak and strong aspects of research and development projects and thus assists strategic decision-making.     

Research on Farmers'''' Response to Microeconomic Policies and Its Impact on Land Degradation in Zhaodong Heilongjiang Province

The livelihoods of farmers are responding to the microeconomic policies and result in many changes in the landuse pattern and landscape, and the farmer's attitude to the natural resources conservation, specifically in the land degradation. In order to find the relationship between the farmers' response to the microeconomic policies and land degradation, the authors surveyed 120 household in three villages in the black soil zone in Heilongjiang Province. Based on the feedback of the questionnaires, the authors established a model to analyze the impact. The results demonstrated that land degradation was impacted by farmers behaviors in the process of the adjustment of agricultural structures in the city of Zhaodong. And the main factors acted on the land degradation were the agricultural labour education level, the transfer of the labour from agricultural production, the price of the agricultural production materials, and the land scale management. The authors put forward some suggestions for sustainable agriculture based on the analysis on the topic.     

极端天气事件感知与收入水平对农户保护性耕作采用意愿的影响

为定量分析环境友好型耕作模式的发展潜力。本研究在气候变暖与极端天气事件频发的背景下,利用河南、河北等地的897户农户调查数据,采用二元离散Logit模型、补对数—对数模型分析农户保护性耕作采用意愿的影响因素,重点关注农户对极端天气事件感知、农户家庭收入水平对其保护性耕作采用意愿的影响。结果表明:农户采用保护性耕作的意愿受到极端天气事件发生频率的影响。在同样感知到极端天气事件每年发生的农户中,相较于较高收入的农户,中等收入农户采用保护性耕作的意愿更弱。此外,教育水平较高、参加农业合作社、种植面积较大的农户在采用保护性耕作上的意愿更强。据此建议,推动农户从部分采用保护性耕作技术到整套采用保护性耕作技术,农技推广部门可以重点在极端天气事件频发地区推广,且重点针对种植面积大、家庭收入水平高的农户。     

农户与政府气候变化认知及适应措施比较研究——以河南省为例

基于河南省314家麦农和30个基层政府部门55名工作人员的实地调研数据,对农户和政府的气候变化认知与适应措施进行比较研究。结果显示,麦农和基层政府对气候变化及其对农业生产的影响具有较高的认知度。其中,对于气候系统的变化,麦农的认知度高于基层政府;对于气候变化的具体表现和气候变化对农业生产的影响,麦农的认知度低于基层政府。研究还发现,麦农和基层政府对气候变化适应措施的选择偏好不同。超过80%的小麦种植户采取了气候变化适应措施,但主要是增加农药化肥投入和增加灌溉等被动性适应措施,基层政府倾向选择营造农田防护林和推广农作物新品种等主动性适应措施。对于气候变化适应的政策支持,加强气候变化相关的教育和培训、推荐农作物新品种、暴雨和干旱预警是麦农和基层政府的共同选择。     

气候变化下的农户适应性行为及其对粮食单产的影响

为探究农户适应性行为及其对农业产出的影响效应,基于河北、河南省等地粮食种植户的调查数据,采取处理效应模型,实证分析农户气候变化适应性行为对粮食单产的影响。研究表明:1)面对气候变化及其影响,近80%的农户会采取应对措施,而且农户倾向于采用成本较低的措施。2)农户是否采取适应性措施的行为决策受到内、外部因素的影响,气温、降水总量对农户适应性行为分别具有显著的正向和负向影响,种植面积对农户适应性行为具有积极影响。3)农户采取适应性措施对粮食单产具有显著正向影响,与不具有适应性行为的农户相比,采取措施农户的粮食单产更高。     

经济增长、产业贡献与农民收入增长波动——基于宏观收入分配计量模型与谱分析的实证

利用收入分配模型导出的计量模型,对改革开放以来(1978—2013年)农民收入增长波动及其宏观影响因素进行实证研究;使用谱分析方法,估计并比较农民收入增长与GDP及各产业增长的波动周期。结果表明:第一产业和第二产业的增长对农民收入增长有显著的贡献,但第三产业增长对农民收入增长影响不显著。农民收入增长波动的主周期与GDP及非农产业增长波动的主周期一致,农民收入增长波动的副周期则与农业产业增长波动的主周期一致。根据实证结果提出以下政策建议:稳定农民收入,一方面需稳定农民的农业收入,另一方面应提高农民工的教育水平和科学文化素质,促进农民进入第三产业就业以获得增收的来源。     

基于广义多层线性模型的农户土地承包经营权退出意愿

鼓励部分农户退出土地承包经营权已成为有效提升农村地区耕地利用效率的关键途径,为研究农户的土地承包经营权退出意愿,并考虑到农户退地意愿同时受家庭特征和所处村庄特征的共同影响,利用广义多层线性模型和陕西省关中地区583户农户调研数据,对农户土地承包经营权退出意愿受村庄特征和农户特征的影响进行实证研究。结果表明:1)农户土地承包经营权退出意愿受所处村庄特征影响;2)除农户家庭特征影响其退地意愿外,农户所处村庄的交通便利程度、土地流转的顺畅程度对其土地退出意愿有负向显著影响,村集体是否经常举办非农技能培训对农户土地退出意愿有显著正向影响。村庄特征因素显著影响农户退地意愿,在鼓励农户退地时必须将村庄特征因素考虑在内。     

社会网络、生态认知对农户秸秆还田意愿的影响

为探索社会网络和生态认知对农户秸秆还田意愿的作用关系,基于674份农户调查数据,采用结构方程模型,分析社会网络中的社会学习、社会信任影响农户秸秆还田意愿的作用机制,并在此基础上,以性别和兼业经历作为调节变量进行多群组结构方程分析,检验相似模型在不同群组间的差异。结果表明:社会学习和社会信任既直接影响农户的秸秆还田意愿,又通过生态认知间接影响其还田意愿;无兼业经历农户的社会网络对农户还田意愿的影响最为显著;女性农户的社会信任对其还田意愿的影响最为显著,而男性农户的社会学习对其还田意愿的影响最为显著。因此,要提高农户还田意愿,既要提高农户之间的社会网络强度,也要提高农户的生态认知水平。     

农户生物资产抵押融资意愿影响因素及层次性分析

采用陕西省827户从事种养殖业农户的实地调查数据,将二元Logistic和ISM模型结合,对农户生物资产抵押融资意愿影响因素及其层次性进行了研究。结果表明:农户年龄、家庭劳动力数量、贷款经历、耕地面积、生物资产价值、抵押品销售、政策认知、抵押率合适程度、抵押融资意义认知9个因素对农户生物资产抵押融资意愿影响显著并具有层次性,其中家庭耕地面积是最基础根源的影响因素,年龄、劳动力数量及生物资产价值是次基础影响因素,贷款经历、抵押品销售以及抵押率合适程度是中层影响因素,政策认知及抵押融资意义认知是表层直接影响因素。     

社会规范对农户绿肥种植意愿与行为悖离影响分析——基于资源禀赋异质性视角

为探究缓解当前农业环境污染现状的解决之道,利用甘肃省644户微观调研数据,采用二元Logistic回归模型分析资源禀赋、社会规范对农户绿肥种植意愿与行为悖离的影响,并基于资源禀赋异质性视角探讨社会规范在影响农户绿肥种植意愿向行为转化中的作用机制。结果表明:1)农户资源禀赋水平的提升可以有效抑制悖离现象。2)社会规范中,价值引导、互动内化和制度规范均负向作用于农户绿肥种植意愿与行为的悖离,可有效促进农户绿肥种植意愿向实际行为转化与落实。3)资源禀赋异质性下,社会规范仍对农户绿肥种植意愿与行为悖离具有显著负向影响。其中价值引导在高禀赋家庭中发挥的作用大于低禀赋家庭;互动内化中亲戚邻居采取绿色环保的生产方式对低禀赋家庭影响较大,朋友是否采取绿色环保的生产方式对高禀赋家庭行为有重要影响;制度规范中政府农业面源污染行为的处罚措施对低禀赋家庭的约束作用更强,政府专业化生产补贴对高禀赋家庭的激励作用更大。建议要重视因禀赋差异引起的农户不同生产行为,对低禀赋群体应采取对应机制。同时要加强社会规范的引导作用,鼓励农户积极参与到绿肥种植的实践中。     

基于湖北省十个代表县(市)的农户适应气候变化的偏向特征与影响因素分析

利用来自湖北省公安县、枝江市等10个代表地区847个稻农的调研数据,运用Binary probit模型的计量经济分析方法,对农户气候变化适应性行为实施的偏向特征及影响因素展开研究。结论表明:农户实施劳动偏向型气候变化适应性行为的比例最高,且超过65%,而实施技术偏向型气候变化适应性行为比例最低;气候变化感知、土地转入、户主性别、家庭农业劳动力、接受生产培训等因素对农户实施不同要素偏向型的气候适应性行为产生显著影响,其中,感知到降雨越来越不规律的农户比未感知到的农户在实施劳动和技术偏向型气候适应性行为的概率上分别高出29.1%和18.8%,发生土地转入的农户实施劳动和技术偏向型气候适应性行为的概率要比未发生土地流转的农户高出10.9%和7.5%。最后提出了降低适应气候的制度成本、拓宽气候信息服务路径等政策建议。