极端天气事件感知与收入水平对农户保护性耕作采用意愿的影响

为定量分析环境友好型耕作模式的发展潜力。本研究在气候变暖与极端天气事件频发的背景下,利用河南、河北等地的897户农户调查数据,采用二元离散Logit模型、补对数—对数模型分析农户保护性耕作采用意愿的影响因素,重点关注农户对极端天气事件感知、农户家庭收入水平对其保护性耕作采用意愿的影响。结果表明:农户采用保护性耕作的意愿受到极端天气事件发生频率的影响。在同样感知到极端天气事件每年发生的农户中,相较于较高收入的农户,中等收入农户采用保护性耕作的意愿更弱。此外,教育水平较高、参加农业合作社、种植面积较大的农户在采用保护性耕作上的意愿更强。据此建议,推动农户从部分采用保护性耕作技术到整套采用保护性耕作技术,农技推广部门可以重点在极端天气事件频发地区推广,且重点针对种植面积大、家庭收入水平高的农户。

Effects of farmers' perception of extreme weather events and income levels on their willingness to adopt conservation tillage

In order to investigate the development potential of conservation tillage,under the context of climate warming and extreme weather events,this study assesses the determinants of farmers'' willingness to adopt conservation tillage,especially focus on the farmers'' perception of extreme weather events and their income level by using the Logit model and complementary log-log model based on 897 household survey data from different provinces such as Henan and Hebei.The results showed that:Farmers'' willingness to conservation tillage is affected by the frequency of extreme weather events.Among the survey farmers who perceive extreme weather events occurs once in a year,the middle-income farmers are less willing to adopt conservation tillage than the higher-income farmers.In addition,farmers who receive more education,participate in agricultural cooperatives and have a larger area are more likely to adopt conservation tillage.In conclusion,the agricultural department can promote conservation tillage in areas with more extreme weather events,and among farmers with larger planting area and higher income level.