基于Budyko假设的金溪流域径流变化归因分析

[目的]探究金溪流域径流变化特征及其原因,对于水库运行调度及水资源管理具有重要指导作用。[方法]基于1982—2015年流域气象水文数据以及植被NDVI数据,采用线性回归法、Mann-Kendall突变检验及滑动T突变检验法分析径流变化特征,进一步采用Budyko水热耦合平衡方程计算各影响因子对流域径流变化的贡献率。[结果]金溪流域年径流深、降雨量均呈不显著上升趋势,变化速率分别为3.89 mm/a, 8.43 mm/a。潜在蒸散发量呈显著上升趋势,变化速率为1.17 mm/a。通过突变检验可将金溪流域径流序列分为基准期1982—2002年和变化期2003—2015年。金溪流域径流变化归因分析表明：下垫面变化对径流变化的贡献率为123.55%,潜在蒸散发的贡献率为33.83%,降雨贡献率为-57.38%,流域下垫面变化主要源于植被情况显著改善,其中NDVI在基准期上升速率为0.005/10 a,在变化期上升速率为0.024/10 a。[结论]导致金溪流域径流变化的主要源于植被情况的显著改善,金溪流域径流变化的归因分析为金溪流域的水资源利用提供了理论支持。     

新安江流域降水、径流演变特征分析

为了掌握新安江流域降水、径流的演变特征,采用Mann-Kendall检验法、Morlet小波分析法对新安江流域近57年的降水、径流数据的月、年际变化,年序列的突变和周期特征进行了统计和分析。结果表明:春夏季的4—7月是新安江流域降雨和径流最为集中的时段,新安江流域年降雨、径流的年际变化均呈明显增多的趋势,新安江流域年径流、降雨的突变异常时间基本吻合,两组序列的第1主周期均为17 a,第2,3周期分别是7 a,3 a,目前正处于不同周期中的丰水年中。两组序列高度相关,且具有极其吻合的同步变化特征。可见新安江流域属于雨水补给型河流,降雨是影响该流域径流最主要的因子。新安江流域可利用径流和降雨两组序列建立了线性回归模型,其拟合和预报效果较好,在流域长期径流量预报业务中有一定的应用价值。     

西安市不透水面的变化及其驱动力

[目的]分析并监测城市不透水面动态变化,为城市化和环境质量评价提供依据。[方法]以陕西省西安市为研究区,选取Landsat系列1995,2000,2006,2010,2016年5期遥感影像,利用光谱混合分解法对西安市不透水面进行提取,进而分析西安市21 a间不透水面的时空变化,并对影响不透水面变化的驱动力进行分析。[结果]①西安市不透水面面积所占比例不断攀升,其中2000年至2006年年均增长最慢,2010年至2016年年均增长最快,主城区增长最快时期为2006年至2010年。②空间变化上,2006年以前,不透水面主要呈同心圆的模式,以主城区为核心向外辐射扩张。2006年以后,各区县城和主城区的不透水面均大幅向外扩张,呈现一主多次模式。③人口规模、经济发展、产业结构、规划政策与西安市不透水面的增加息息相关。[结论]西安市不透水面扩张的时空变化基本反映了规划要求,未来应加强城市副中心建设,大力保护生态环境,处理好城市化和不透水面扩张的关系。     

中国不透水面变化与社会经济协调发展的耦合关系

[目的] 探究21世纪以来中国不透水面与社会经济耦合协调发展动态,解析景观城市化与社会经济发展的矛盾与协同的时空格局,为开展差异化的区域水土保持和城乡发展策略制定提供科学依据。[方法] 运用脱钩模型和耦合协调度模型开展2000—2018年中国355个市域单元的不透水面与社会经济耦合协调发展的时空变化特征。[结果] ①中国不透水面持续扩张与社会经济发展整体上基本不同步,存在显著的区域差异。2000—2018年不透水面扩张总体上落后于经济发展,但东北和华北地区不透水面扩张速度相较于经济增长速度经历了从落后到超前的过程,弱脱钩类型占比下降了38.59%,负脱钩型占比上升了30.70%。不透水面与人口的耦合关系中,全国市域尺度的不透水面扩张基本超前于人口增长,其中华中、西北和西南等地最为显著,导致强负脱钩型占比增加了23.94%。②2000—2018年不透水面与社会经济的耦合协调度随不透水面变化率的上升而降低。在增长25%以下的不透水面变化率区间内,不透水面—经济与不透水面—人口的耦合协调关系,表现为显著的拮抗关系。[结论] 21世纪以来中国景观城市化过程与社会经济的动态关系趋向不协调,未来应严格控制城乡不透水面向外蔓延,提高土地集约利用程度,促进城乡可持续发展。     

江西省1988-2017年新型城镇化水平与不透水面的相关关系

[目的] 结合不透水面对新型城镇化水平进行分析，探究江西省各市新型城镇化发展的规律及趋势，为江西省新型城镇化的发展提供科学参考。[方法] 从人口、经济、社会、空间4个方面构建新型城镇化的指标体系，在分析江西省1988-2017年各市新型城镇化水平的同时，基于不透水面数据，研究城镇化水平与不透水面不同阶段的相关性变化，构建二者的线性关系模型。[结果] ①30 a间江西省城镇不透水面扩张明显，整体呈现高-较高-中-较低-低密度圈层分布的空间格局。②江西省城镇化发展水平呈现出"北高南低"的空间分布特征，区域间发展不均衡；③2006年为该区城镇化水平增长的突变点，前后城镇化水平与不透水面相关性存在差异；④各市不透水面与新型城镇化水平线性拟合决定系数R²均大于0.9，拟合效果较好。[结论] 不透水面与新型城镇化水平存在较强相关性，利用不透水面数据能较好地反映各市新型城镇化水平，这有助于分析城镇化发展趋势，促进区域城镇化研究。     

基于小波分析和灰色预测的莺落峡年径流量特征分析

[目的]研究黑河莺落峡年径流量的变化规律及周期特征,为水量调配和水资源管理提供理论基础与科学依据。[方法]基于黑河莺落峡水文站1944—2014年径流量实测资料,采用Morlet小波分析、Mann-Kendall突变和灰色预测等方法分析了莺落峡流域径流变化趋势及其变化特征。[结果]莺落峡年径流量呈现微弱的增加趋势,年径流量距平百分率的倾向率为2.78%/10a。在莺落峡流域径流小波方差分析图中,有4个较为明显的峰值,它们依次对应的时间尺度为43,56,12和9a。43a时间尺度对应的最大峰是莺落峡流域年径流变化的第一主周期。根据年径流主周期的循环交替特征推测,在2020年左右莺落峡流域处于丰水时期,年径流量预测为1.843×109 m3。[结论]莺落峡年径流量周期变化特征明显,径流量呈增加趋势。     

黄土高原藉河流域径流对气候和土地利用变化的响应

[目的]揭示黄土高原区中尺度流域径流对气候和土地利用变化的响应规律,为合理解决流域水资源利用和实现水资源的可持续管理提供理论支撑。[方法]以黄土高原藉河流域为研究对象,采用Mann-Kendall检验、距平累积曲线、双累积曲线以及分离评判法等方法进行研究。[结果](1)1962—2010年藉河流域年降雨呈下降趋势,但下降趋势不显著(p0.05);流域年径流深呈显著下降趋势(p0.001),且在1985年发生减少突变;(2)坡耕地面积减少,梯田面积增加是研究时段内流域土地利用变化的最明显特征。[结论]研究时段内土地利用变化是藉河流域径流量减少的主要驱动因素,影响贡献率为90.2%,而气候变化影响较小,贡献率仅为9.8%。     

乌兰木伦河1960—2015年水沙周期性分析

采用Mann-Kendall检验、Pettitt检验以及小波周期分析等方法对乌兰木伦河流域王道恒塔站1960—2015年的降水、径流和输沙过程进行了分析。结果表明:乌兰木伦河流域降水量变化趋势不显著(Z=1.19),在2010年之后有增加趋势。Mann-Kendall检验结果表明年径流量(Z=-5.62)和年输沙量有显著减沙趋势(Z=-5.56),采用Pettitt检验结果表明年径流量和年输沙量突变点均发生在1996年。相比60年代,2010年之后径流量从2.5亿m~3减少到0.9亿m~3,输沙量也从2 965.1万t减少到1.5万t。年降水量周期与年径流年输沙的周期不同步,仅在2～4a和8～10a时间尺度上具有周期性同步,而径流量和输沙量的周期有一定的同步性。研究表明,流域径流量和输沙量的短周期变化主要受降雨、太阳活动等自然因子调控,同时受到人类活动的影响,而更长周期的水沙变化特征则有赖于百年以上的水文序列。     

1979-2020年深圳市不透水面信息提取及其时空格局变化分析

[目的] 分析不透水地表比的时空分布,探究城市的发展潜力,为城市水土保持等规划与后续发展提供参考意见。[方法] 以深圳市作为研究区,选取1979—2020年9期共18景Landsat 3/5/7/8影像为主要数据源影像提取不透水面比例作为参考数据,结合不透水面平均中心、标准差椭圆和景观格局指数分析深圳市不透水面时空格局分布。[结果] ①1979—2020年深圳市整体不透水面比例呈增长趋势,1990—2010年增长速率和增长强度最高,后逐渐变缓; ②由于深圳市发展的不平衡,1979—2000年,发展重心持续向着东北方向移动,随后2000—2010年,重心向西北方向迁移,2010年后,重心在东西方向上有所移动。总的来看,深圳市的发展方向主要为东—西; ③景观格局变化显示各等级不透水面景观分布渐趋均衡,分布趋势从破碎到聚集度越来越高,连接性在逐渐增强。[结论] 不透水面增长的不同阶段具有不同的时空分布规律,不同密度不透水面分别有各自的变化特点,降低高密度不透水面的聚集程度对城市未来发展具有积极影响。     

近55年来降水及人类活动对沅水流域径流的影响

[目的]开展降水和人类活动对沅水流域径流影响的定量研究及其成因分析,为该流域水资源开发利用提供科学依据。[方法]采用累计距平法以及滑动t检验法对沅水流域近55 a的降水量、径流量序列进行趋势分析和突变检验,采用双累积曲线法分别计算降水及人类活动对沅水流域径流量变化的贡献率。[结果]除安江站受人类活动影响较明显,其贡献量为60%外,在变异期Ⅰ(1989—2003年),降水对流域径流的影响量大于人类活动的贡献率;在变异期Ⅱ(2004—2014年),人类活动的贡献率大幅增加并逐步成为径流变化的主要驱动因素。[结论]近55 a来,人类活动因素对沅水流域径流量的影响不断增加,沅水流域下游受人类活动的影响贡献率的增幅最大。     

Soil-profile distribution of primary and secondary plant-available nutrients under conventional and no tillage

Nutrient distributions under no tillage (NT) compared with conventional disk-and-bed tillage (CT) management in the warm, humid region of the southeastern USA need to be assessed so that future placement, quantity, and type of fertilizers can be altered, if necessary, to efficiently match crop demands. We determined soil-profile distributions of pH, N, P, S, K, Ca, Mg, Na, Zn, Fe, Mn, and Cu to a depth of 0.9 m at the end of 8.5 years of continuous CT and NT management on a Weswood silty clay loam (fine, mixed, thermic Fluventic Ustochrept) in southcentral Texas. Most dramatic changes occurred within the 0–0.05 m depth, where soil under NT had lower pH, Fe, and Cu than under CT, but greater P, K, Zn, and Mn. Greater P and K under NT than under CT also occurred below the till-zone (0.15–0.3 m). At a depth of 0–0.3 m, soil under NT contained greater amounts of extractable P, K, Zn, Fe, Mn, and Cu than under CT. Nitrogen fertilization had little effect on nutrient distributions, except resulting in greater extractable K at 0–0.05 m and greater nitrate at 0–0.15 m. Few changes in soil-profile distributions were observed for extractable S, Ca, Mg, and Na. Long-term continuous use of NT on this fine-textured, high-fertility (except for N) soil had no apparent adverse effects on nutrient distributions relative to CT, but enhanced conservation and availability of P, K, Zn, Fe, Mn, and Cu near the soil surface where crop roots proliferate.     

Assessing the effectiveness of conservation measures: Resolving the “wicked” problem of the Steller sea lion

“Wicked” problems are those that are complex and that change when solutions are applied. Many conflicts in conservation fall into this category. The study approached the problem of how to constrain the apparent wickedness of a problem in the conservation management of a species by using simple empirical indicators to carry out iterative assessment of the risk to a population and to document how this risk evolves in relation to the addition of new data and the implementation of management actions. Effects of high levels of uncertainty within data and also concerning population structure were examined through stochastic simulation and by exploration of scenarios. Historical trends in the example used, the Steller sea lion, showed rapid declines in abundance in some regions during the 1980s. The current total population is 130,000-150,000 Steller sea lions through Alaska and British Columbia and this number has been stable since about 1990 in spite of regional differences in population dynamics. Regional differences in the sequence of changes in the number of pups and non-pups, suggested that an internal re-distribution of juveniles could have happened between 1980 and 1990. Current productivity also appears close to the long-term mean. Stochastic population projection using various scenarios showed that, based upon this history, the risk of extinction for the population has declined and is below reasonable thresholds for considering the population to be endangered. The trends in risk suggest that management actions taken since 1990 have probably been effective. Consequently, the conservation management objectives for the Steller sea lion are probably being met. The approach provides a mechanism, based upon experience and scenario analysis, for exploring future policy options and may help to constrain the debate amongst stakeholders about the cost-benefit trade-offs associated with different options.     

Enhanced establishment and growth of giant cardon cactus in an eroded field in the Sonoran Desert using native legume trees as nurse plants aided by plant growth-promoting microorganisms and compost

To evaluate the feasibility of long-term desert reforestation technology of mixed vegetation, cardon cactus (Pachycereus pringlei) seedlings from indoor and outdoor nurseries were planted in the field adjacent to one seedling of potential legume nurse trees: mesquite amargo (Prosopis articulata), yellow palo verde (Parkinsonia microphylla), and blue palo verde (Parkinsonia florida). Some of the planting holes were also supplemented with common dairy compost. Additionally, the combinations of legume tree–cactus were inoculated with either a consortium of desert arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi, plant growth promoting bacteria (PGPB; the diazotroph Azospirillum brasilense Cd, and the phosphate solubilizer Paenibacillus sp.), or a mixture of all. The field experiments were evaluated periodically during 30 months for survival and growth. Cardons reared in an outdoor screen house survived better in the field than those reared in a controlled growth chamber and hardened later outdoors. Association with any legume nurse tree increased survival and enhanced growth of untreated cardons. For cardons growing alone, application of either compost, AM fungi, and all the treatments combined increased survival. For these plants, no treatment affected plant growth during the first 3 months after transplanting. Later, all treatments, except for AM fungi, enhanced plant growth. However, only 2 years after transplanting the enhanced growth effect of AM fungi was also significant. In the presence of the legume nurse trees, transient positive effects on cardon growth were recorded. General evaluation after 30 months of cultivation showed that the treatments positively affected cardon growth when growing alone or in combination only with mesquite amargo but not with the other two legume trees. This study proposes that young legume trees have the capacity to enhance survival and growth of cardon cactus, depending on the legume cactus combination. Additional treatments such as compost or PGPB can either amplify the effect or else attenuate it.     

Karyotypic and genome size variation in Cajanus cajan (L.) Millsp. (pigeonpea) and some wild relatives

Detailed karyotypes and 4C DNA amounts have been studied in five cultivars of Cajanus cajan and 20 species belonging to Cajanus, Rhynchosia, Dunbaria, Flemingia and Paracalyx. C. cajan shows intraspecific variability and its karyotype is most similar to that of C. cajanifolius (sect. Cajanus) in the morphology and number of satellite chromosomes and the lack of any correlation between chromosome size within the complement and asymmetry. Karyotypes of C. lineatus and C. sericeus belonging to sect. Atylia are similar with respect to maximum r-index and the ratio of longest and shortest chromosomes in their respective complements. C. acutifolius (sect. Frutocosa) is distinct in having a very low ratio (1.44) between the longest and the shortest chromosomes, while in C. albicans, C. goensis, C. scarabaeoides (sect. Cantharospermum) there is no chromosome pair with r-index >2.0. C. mollis and C. volubilis (sect. Volubilis) show similarity with regard to ratio between the longest and the shortest chromosomes and a distinct chromosome pair with an arm ratio of 2.7 and C. platycarpus is distinct (sect. Rhynchosoides) in having the smallest ratio (1.36) between the longest and the shortest chromosomes. 4C DNA amounts in Cajanus and Rhynchosia vary between 3.28 pg to 11.69 pg and 4.92 pg to 11.13 pg respectively, while in Dunbaria, Flemingia and Paracalyx these vary between 4.70 and 7:06 pg. In the genus Cajanus karyotypic features and 4C DNA amounts agree with the sectional classification and bring out a close relationship between C. cajan and C. cajanifolius. This is supported by studies based on seed protein patterns, isozyme analysis, trypsin and chymotrypsin inhibitor patterns, RFLP and RAPD data and crossability relationships. A clear relation between DNA amount and abnormalities effecting the extent of pairing and recombination in interspecific hybrids shows the importance of this study in developing future breeding programme involving C. cajan and its wild relatives that are of potential value.     

Effect of some fungicide seed treatments on the survival of Bradyrhizobium japonicum and on the nodulation and yield of soybean [Glycine max. (L) Merr.]

Several commercial fungicide seed treatments were evaluated for their possible effect on the survival of Bradyrhizobium japonicum on seeds and on the nodulation and yield of soybeans in a greenhouse and a field experiment. quinolate Pro (carbendazim and oxine copper), Vitavax 200FF (carboxin and thiram), and Monceren (pencycuron) had a small effect or no effect on the survival of B. japonicum and on the nodulation and yield of soybeans. They can thus be considered compatible with soybean seed inoculation. Germipro UFB (carbendazim and iprodione), Apron 35J (metalaxyl), and Tachigaren (hymexazol) decreased B. japonicum survival and the nodulation and yield of soybeans and thus cannot be considered compatible with soybean seed inoculation.     

Einfluss der düngungsmethoden auf die entwicklung von zuckerrübenkrankheiten

Während neunjähriger (1994-2002) Untersuchungen in der Versuchsanstalt Ba?cyny (Fahlerde, Fall-Gleyboden, ausgebildet aus leichtem Lehmboden) wurde der Befall mit Krankheiten an der Zuckerrübe in Abhängigkeit von der Düngungsmethode bewertet. Folgende Methoden wurden angewendet: A - Mineraldünger, B - Stalldung und Mineraldünger, C - Stroh-, Gründung und Mineraldünger, D - Kompostdünger und Biopräparate (ökologische Düngung). Auf den Objekten A, B, C wurden bei konstanter Phosphor-Kalium-Düngung die Stickstoffgaben von 0 bis 180 kg.ha^?1 differenziert. Auf dem ökologischen Objekt D ohne Mineraldünger wurden statt Stickstoff die Biopräparate P₅₀₀ und P₅₀₁ verabreicht. Der geringste Befall von Krankheiten wurde an der Zuckerrübe auf jenem Objekt festgestellt, das mit Kompost und den Biopräparaten gedüngt worden war. Im Rahmen der konventionellen Düngungsmethoden wurde allgemein die höchste Intensität der Krankheiten an der mit Stroh, Gründung und Mineraldünger gedüngten Zuckerrübe beobachtet. Ausnahmen von dieser Regel bildete das Vorkommen von echtem Mehltau und Keimlingsfäule. Auf den Objekten A, B, C nahm die Intensität der Krankheiten mit der Steigerung der Stickstoffgabe zu. Auch die auf Objekt D verabreichten Biopräparate stimulierten die Entwicklung der Krankheiten. The effect of various fertilization methods on the diseases of sugar beet was estimated on the basis of nine-year studies (1994-2002) conducted in the Experimental Production Farm in Ba?cyny on loess-based, sedimentary-gley, light-clay soil. The following fertilization methods were applied: A - mineral fertilization, B - mineral and manure fertilization, C - straw, green manure and mineral fertilization, D - ecological compost and biodynamic preparations fertilization. In the objects A, B and C fertilized with phosphorus and potassium, various doses of nitrogen ranging from 0 to 180 kg/ha^?1 were used. In the ecological object D, where mineral fertilization was not used, biodynamic preparations P₅₀₀ and P₅₀₁ were applied instead of nitrogen. The lowest ratio of the diseases of sugar beet was observed in the object fertilized with the compost and biodynamic preparations. In view of the conventional fertilization methods, generally the highest incidence of diseases was noted in the sugar beet fertilized with straw, green manure and mineral fertilizers. The exception was the occurrence of powdery mildew and the black leg. In objects A, B and C the incidence of the diseases increased with the increase in nitrogen doses. The applied biodynamical preparations in the object D stimulated the development of diseases too.     

Prospects for control of Pythium damping-off of lettuce with Trichoderma,Gliocladium and Enterobacter spp.

Summary Damping-off of lettuce (Lactuca sativa) caused by Pythium ultimum was studied in pots containing a non-sterile potting mix in the glasshouse. Fifty P. ultimum sporangia g^-1 compost reduced the plant stand to 15% and shoot dry weight to 18%, but this reduction was totally prevented by applying Trichoderma harzianum at 2×10⁵ viable propagules g^-1 potting mix. Gliocladium virens and Enterobacter cloacae also alleviated the damping-off. E. cloacae did not adversely affect the action of the fungal antagonists. The co-existence of the bacterial and fungal antagonists was revealed on the root surface and inner surface of the testa by scanning electron microscopy, indicating the compatibility of the biocontrol agents.     

细菌、真菌及植物氮营养信号研究进展

氮素吸收代谢是所有生物生命活动的核心部分,因此,各种生物对氮的吸收与同化过程都有精细的调节。这种调节依赖于生物对体内氮素状况信号及体外（生长介质中）氮素信号的感受。过去几十年中,在细菌、真菌中已经对氮素营养信号有了较好的研究,而植物中则相对缓慢,但也有了一定的认识。本文重点比较细菌、真菌及植物中氮信号系统的组成,以期为进一步认识植物中的氮信号接受与转导系统提供启示。     

Aircraft operations near concentrations of birds in Antarctica: The development of practical guidelines

Aircraft operations have the potential to disturb and to impact negatively on bird life. A gradient of increasing behavioural response is evident in birds when exposed to increasing aircraft stimulus. The most major disturbance is likely to lead to impacts on the health, breeding performance and survival of individual birds, and perhaps bird colonies. A process of revision to policies on aircraft operations contained in management plans for a number of specially protected areas in Antarctica by the United Kingdom, accompanied by consultations made within the scientific community through the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) and with operational interests through the Council of Managers of National Antarctic Programmes (COMNAP) resulted in new guidelines being adopted by the Antarctic Treaty Consultative Parties in June 2004. The principal recommendations of the guidelines are that bird colonies should not be overflown below 2000 ft (∼610 m) above ground level and landings within 1/2 nautical mile (∼930 m) of bird colonies should be avoided wherever possible. These guidelines are less stringent and less specific than those that were recommended by the SCAR specialist group on birds, and represent a compromise to accommodate operational needs. While the adoption of clear and consistent guidelines for the operation of aircraft in Antarctica is welcome in that this provides practical advice that is likely to reduce incidences of close aircraft/bird encounters, there remains insufficient knowledge of the interactions between aircraft and birds in Antarctica, and the consequent impacts on individual birds and on bird populations. It is important, therefore, that the guidelines adopted are considered interim, and should be kept under scrutiny with revisions made as new and improved research results appear.     

Potential of wild species for genetic enhancement of some semi-arid food crops

Discovery and incorporation of genes from wild species provide means to sustain crop improvement, particularly when levels of resistance in the cultigens are low and virulent strains of pests and pathogens overcome the host plant resistance. The extent of utilization and the potential of the wild genepool for genetic enhancement were reviewed in five important food crops viz. sorghum, pearl millet, chickpea, pigeonpea and groundnut grown in the semi-arid tropics. Introgression from compatible wild germplasm in the primary gene pool resulted in transfer of new cytoplasmic male sterility systems in pearl millet and pigeonpea, development of high protein, cleistogamous flower and dwarf pigeonpea lines and foliar disease resistant groundnut cultivars. Utilization of wild species in secondary and tertiary gene pools has been generally limited due to sterility, restricted recombination or cross incompatibility. Nevertheless, these species are extremely important as they contain high levels of resistance to several important biotic and abiotic stresses. Several of them, like those belonging to the Parasorghum section and the rhizomatous Arachis species are sources of multiple resistances and hold great promise to sustain crop productivity.