European small pelagic fish distribution under global change scenarios

The spectre of increasing impacts on exploited fish stocks in consequence of warmer climate conditions has become a major concern over the last decades. It is now imperative to improve the way we project the effects of future climate warming on fisheries. While estimating future climate‐induced changes in fish distribution is an important contribution to sustainable resource management, the impacts on European small pelagic fish—representing over 50% of the landings in the Mediterranean and Black Sea between 2000 and 2013—are yet largely understudied. Here, we investigated potential changes in the spatial distribution of seven of the most harvested small pelagic fish species in Europe under several climate change scenarios over the 21st century. For each species, we considered eight Species Distribution Models (SDMs), five General Circulation Models (GCMs) and three emission scenarios (the IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways; RCPs). Under all scenarios, our results revealed that the environmental suitability for most of the seven species may strongly decrease in the Mediterranean and western North Sea while increasing in the Black and Baltic Seas. This potential northward range expansion of species is supported by a strong convergence among projections and a low variability between RCPs. Under the most pessimistic scenario (RCP8.5), climate‐related local extinctions were expected in the south‐eastern Mediterranean basin. Our results highlight that a multi‐SDM, multi‐GCM, multi‐RCP approach is needed to produce more robust ecological scenarios of changes in exploited fish stocks in order to better anticipate the economic and social consequences of global climate change.     

Combined effects of temperature and fishing mortality on the Barents Sea ecosystem stability

Temporal variability in abundance and composition of species in marine ecosystems results from a combination of internal processes, external drivers, and stochasticity. One way to explore the temporal variability in an ecosystem is through temporal stability, measured using the inverse of the coefficient of variation for biomass of single species. The effect of temperature and fisheries on the variability of the Barents Sea food web is still poorly understood. To address this question, we simulate the possible dynamics of Barents Sea food web under different temperature and fishery scenarios using a simple food-web model (Non-Deterministic Network Dynamic [NDND]). The NDND model, which is based on chance and necessity (CaN), defines the state space of the ecosystem using its structural constraints (necessity) and explores it stochastically (chance). The effects of temperature and fisheries on stability are explored both separately and combined. The simulation results suggest that increasing temperature has a negative effect on species biomass and increasing fisheries triggers compensatory dynamics of fish species. There is a major intra-scenario variability in temporal stability, while individual scenarios of temperature and fisheries display a weak negative impact and no effect on stability, respectively. However, combined scenarios indicate that fisheries amplify the effects of temperature on stability, while increasing temperature leads to a shift from synergistic to antagonistic effects between these two drivers.     

Management of transboundary and straddling fish stocks in the Northeast Atlantic in view of climate‐induced shifts in spatial distribution

The introduction of 200 n.m. exclusive economic zones (EEZs) in the late 1970s required increased collaboration among neighbouring coastal states to manage transboundary and straddling fish stocks. The established agreements ranged from bilateral to multilateral, including high‐seas components, as appropriate. However, the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea does not specify how quotas of stocks crossing EEZs should be allocated, nor was it written for topical scenarios, such as climate change with poleward distribution shifts that differ across species. The productive Northeast Atlantic is a hot spot for such shifts, implying that scientific knowledge about zonal distribution is crucial in quota negotiations. This diverges from earlier, although still valid, agreements that were predominately based on political decisions or historical distribution of catches. The bilateral allocations for Barents Sea and North Sea cod remain robust after 40 years, but the management situation for widely distributed stocks, as Northeast Atlantic mackerel and Norwegian spring‐spawning herring, appears challenging, with no recent overall agreements. Contrarily, quotas of Northern hake are, so far, unilaterally set by the EU despite the stock's expansion beyond EU waters into the northern North Sea. Negotiations following the introduction of EEZs were undertaken at the end of the last cooler Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) period, that is, with stock distributions generally in a southerly mode. Hence, today's lack of management consensus for several widely distributed fish stocks typically relates to more northerly distributions attributed to the global anthropogenic signal accelerating the spatial effect of the current warmer AMO.     

Size matters: How single-species management can contribute to ecosystem-based fisheries management

In this study we show how substantial gains towards the goals of ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM) can be achieved by different single-species management. We show that fishing has much less impact on stocks if fish are caught after they have reached the size (L_opt) where growth rate and cohort biomass are maximum. To demonstrate our point we compare the impact of three fishing scenarios on 9 stocks from the North Sea and the Baltic. Scenario (1) is the current fishing regime, scenario (2) is a new management regime proposed by the European Commission, aiming for maximum sustainable yield obtained from all stocks, and scenario (3) is set so that it achieves the same yield as scenario (2), albeit with fishing on sizes beyond L_opt. Results show that scenarios (2) and (3) are significant improvements compared to current fishing practice. However, scenario (3) consistently shows least impact on the stocks, with seven-fold higher biomass of demersal fishes and an age structure similar to an unfished stock. This allows juveniles and adults to better fulfil their ecological roles, a major step towards the goals of ecosystem-based fisheries management. We give examples where scenario (3) is practiced in successful fisheries. We present a new interpretation of the relative yield per recruit isopleth diagram with indication of a new target area for fisheries operating within the context of EBFM. We present a new expression of the relative biomass per recruit isopleth diagram, which supports our analysis. We conclude that size matters for precautionary and ecosystem-based fisheries management and present a list of additional advantages associated with fishing at L_opt.     

The relative influence of temperature and size‐structure on fish distribution shifts: A case‐study on Walleye pollock in the Bering Sea

Research has estimated associations between water temperature and the spatial distribution of marine fishes based upon correlations between temperature and the centroid of fish distribution (centre of gravity, COG). Analysts have then projected future water temperatures to forecast shifts in COG, but often neglected to demonstrate that temperature explains a substantial portion of historical distribution shifts. We argue that estimating the proportion of observed distributional shifts that can be attributed to temperature vs. other factors is a critical first step in forecasting future changes. We illustrate this approach using Gadus chalcogrammus (Walleye pollock) in the Eastern Bering Sea, and use a vector‐autoregressive spatiotemporal model to attribute variation in COG from 1982 to 2015 to three factors: local or regional changes in surface and bottom temperature (“temperature effects”), fluctuations in size‐structure that cause COG to be skewed towards juvenile or adult habitats (“size‐structured effects”) or otherwise unexplained spatiotemporal variation in distribution (“unexplained effects”). We find that the majority of variation in COG (including the north‐west trend since 1982) is largely unexplained by temperature or size‐structured effects. Temperature alone generates a small portion of primarily north–south variation in COG, while size‐structured effects generate a small portion of east–west variation. We therefore conclude that projections of future distribution based on temperature alone are likely to miss a substantial portion of both the interannual variation and interdecadal trends in COG for this species. More generally, we suggest that decomposing variation in COG into multiple causal factors is a vital first step for projecting likely impacts of temperature change.     

Towards integrated research in fisheries science

In this paper we present a call for a re-directing fisheries science towards an integrated scientific activity which includes the trajectory of fish from eggs and their life underwater to consumption on the table. We propose that integrated research in fisheries science be defined as “interdisciplinary research for society and human well-being which deals with the sustainability of dynamic fisheries systems, taking various knowledge, values, and needs into account.” As an integrative discipline, fisheries science offers many advantages to overcoming the limitations of the traditional sciences. The ability to conduct traditional research activities based on each academic discipline is a prerequisite to participating in integrated research. However, “additional processes” are needed, such as the introduction of new integrated thinking, joint determination of the research framework, mutual learning by participating researchers, interaction with stakeholders, among others. Integrated research in fisheries science would allow overall influences to be analyzed, including exogenous factors such as environmental changes and other marine industries. Walleye pollock Theragra chalcogramma provides a good model species for analyzing future scenarios of the structure of the industry as well as potential strategies for addressing and considering the effects of other highly fluctuating resources. One of the most challenging topics is identifying possible paths from a depleted stock to its future recovery. Scientific analyses on “How fast?” “Who should bear the costs?” “When it will occur”, etc., should be conducted by close interactions with stakeholders.     

Mate selection in aquaculture breeding using differential evolution algorithm

An algorithm to perform mate selection in aquaculture breeding using a computational optimization procedure called “differential evolution” (DE) was applied under optimum contribution selection and mate selection scenarios, to assess its efficiency in maximizing the genetic merit while controlling inbreeding. Real aquaculture data sets with 8,782 Nile tilapias from five generations and 79,144 coho salmon from eight generations were used to optimize objective functions accounting for coancestry of parents and expected genetic merit and inbreeding of the future progeny. The mate selection results were compared with those from the realized scenario (real mates), truncation selection and optimum contribution selection method. Mate selection allowed reducing inbreeding up to 73% for Nile tilapia, compared with truncation selection, and up to 20% for coho salmon, compared with realized scenario. There was evidence that mate selection outperformed optimum contribution selection followed by minimum inbreeding mating in controlling inbreeding under the same expected genetic gain. The developed algorithm was computationally efficient in maximizing the objective functions and flexible for practical application in aquaculture breeding.     

Evaluation of stock management procedures for walleye pollock in northern waters of the Sea of Japan using a simulation

To evaluate walleye pollock stock management procedures in the northern waters of the Sea of Japan, 30-year population dynamics, including uncertainties, were forecast. Errors in current stock size estimation, variability in future recruitment and changes in future fishing mortalities were incorporated. Results of virtual population analysis (VPA) from resampled catch-at-age data with bootstrap methods was used as the current stock size estimation with uncertainty. Performances of each scenario were evaluated using conservation, utilization, stability and reliability factors. Twenty-two management scenarios and continuing the current fishing mortality were evaluated. Scenarios with minor regulation changes and continuing the current fishing mortality showed poor stock conservation performances. Scenarios with minor regulation changes produced good short-term but poor long-term utilization. Stabilities were poor in continuing the current fishing mortality and fishing ban scenarios. Reliability in all scenarios after 30 years was smaller than in continuing the current fishing mortality; however, small differences among scenarios were observed. The simulation results indicated that multilateral assessment is needed to evaluate the management candidates. Uncertainty caused by recruitment variability mostly affected future population dynamics. The role of simulations in the production of effective scientific advice is discussed.     

The recruitment process of the Barents Sea capelin (Mallotus villosus) stock, 2001–2003

Oceanographic and predation processes are important modulators of fish larvae survival and mortality. This study addresses the hypothesis that immature Norwegian spring‐spawning herring (Clupea harengus), when abundant in the Barents Sea, determine the capelin reproduction success through consumption of Barents Sea capelin (Mallotus villosus) larvae. Combining a hydrodynamic model and particle‐tracking individual‐based model, a realistic spatio‐temporal overlap between capelin larvae and predatory immature herring was modelled for the summer seasons of 2001–2003. Capelin larvae originating from western spawning grounds became widely dispersed during the summer season, whereas those originating from eastern spawning grounds experienced a rapid drift into the southeastern Barents Sea. Herring caused a 3% mortality of the capelin larvae population in 2001 and a 16% mortality in 2003, but the effect of predation from herring on capelin larvae was negligible in 2002. Despite a strong capelin larvae cohort and a virtual absence of predatory herring, the recruitment from the capelin 2002 year class was relatively poor from a long‐term perspective. We show that the choice of capelin spawning grounds has a major impact on the subsequent capelin larvae drift patterns, constituting an important modulator of the capelin larvae survival. Variation in drift patterns during the summer season is likely to expose the capelin larvae to a wide range of hazards, including predation from young cod, sandeel and other predators. Such alternative predators might thus have contributed to the poor capelin recruitment during 2001–2003, leading to the collapse of the capelin stock in the subsequent years.     

Population structure of the deep-sea shrimp (Pandalus borealis) in the north-east Atlantic based on allozyme variation

In order to elucidate the population structure of the deep-sea shrimp (Pandalus borealis) in the NE Atlantic, 32 subsamples and 3 865 individuals were analysed for allozymic variation. They were caught at various locations in the Barents Sea, in waters off Svalbard, Jan Mayen and Iceland, and in fjords along the Norwegian coast. Only three enzymes (malate dehydrogenase, phosphoglucomutase and glucosephosphate isomerase) of the 22 initially tested showed a combination of gel images that could be interpreted with confidence and allozymic variation. The locus coding for malate dehydrogenase was by far the most polymorphic. Samples caught within the Barents Sea and in the Svalbard area showed no significant heterogeneity in allele frequencies, supporting earlier suggestions of only one population of P. borealis in the Barents Sea. Genetic differentiation was found, however, between Norwegian fjords and the Barents Sea, and among fjords.     

Migrations and hydrography determine the abundance fluctuations of blue whiting (Micromesistius poutassou) in the Barents Sea

The Barents Sea is the north‐eastern fringe of the distribution of blue whiting (Micromesistius poutassou). Fluctuations in distribution and abundance of blue whiting in the area have been marked. Two hypotheses are put forward to explain these fluctuations. First, rich year classes in the main Atlantic stock of blue whiting may contribute to increased abundance in the Barents Sea. Second, variations in hydrography, such as influx of warm Atlantic water, may be particularly important in this fringe area. We investigated these hypotheses using data from bottom trawl surveys conducted during the period 1981–2006. Variations in abundance (measured either as incidence or density) and distribution were correlated with recruitment in the Atlantic stock of blue whiting as well as hydrographic conditions. Regression analyses indicated that the abundance fluctuations are primarily determined by variations in recruitment of Atlantic blue whiting, a strong year class leading to high abundance in the Barents Sea the year after spawning. However, salinity anomaly in the Fugløya–Bear Island transect during the previous year, an indicator of high inflow of Atlantic water, had also a significant, positive effect. Thus, the data suggested a climatic modulation of dynamics that were primarily determined by recruitment of blue whiting in the main Atlantic stock. Analyses of size structure as well as earlier studies on population genetics supported this conclusion.     

Effect of global warming on the life history and population dynamics of Japanese chum salmon

We have reviewed the effects of long-term climatic/oceanic conditions on the growth, survival, production dynamics, and distribution of Hokkaido chum salmon Oncorhynchus keta in Japan during the period 1945–2005 using path analysis, back-calculation, and scale analyses, and applied a prediction method based on the SRES-A1B scenario of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. The populations of Hokkaido chum salmon were found to have had high growth rates at age 1 year since the late 1980s. Path analysis indicated that the growth at age 1 year in the Okhotsk Sea was directly affected by warm sea surface temperature associated with global warming, with the increased growth at age 1 year resulting in higher rates of survival and large population sizes. Predictions on the global warming effects on the chum salmon were (1) decreased carrying capacity and distribution area, (2) occurrence of a strong density-dependent effect, and (3) loss of migration route to the Sea of Okhotsk, especially for Hokkaido chum salmon. We have also outlined the future challenges of establishing a sustainable conservation management scheme for salmon that include adaptive management and precautionary principles, as well as conservation of natural spawning populations and recovery of natural river ecosystems in Japan despite the warming climate.     

Predicting the temperature of the Barents Sea

Knowledge of the influence of the physical environment on commercially important fish stocks in the North Atlantic has increased during the last decade. To allow this information to be used in fisheries management, some forecast of the environment is important. Predictions of temperature in the Arcto-boreal Barents Sea have been given for many years, both as subjective opinions of scientists and implicitly in stock assessment assumptions of, e.g., mortality rates. To evaluate an objective statistical forecasting system, we have analysed time series representing mechanisms previously proposed as influencing the temperature of the Barents Sea. These include components of suggested periodic nature, large-scale advective effects, regional processes, and atmospheric teleconnections. The predictability of Barents Sea temperature based on the above mechanisms was evaluated through calculations of auto- and cross-correlations, linear regression, spectral analysis and autoregressive modelling. Forecasts based on periodic fluctuations in temperature performed poorly. Advection alone did not explain a major part of the variability. The precision of predictions six months ahead varied with season; forecasts from spring to autumn had least uncertainty. A first-order autoregressive model, including modelled atmospherically driven volume flux to the western Barents Sea during the preceding year and the position of the Gulf Stream off the eastern coast of the USA two years earlier, explained 50% of the total historical temperature variability.     

基于物种分布模型的全球绿海龟空间分布及洄游廊道预测

环境因素影响物种的空间分布和动态, 全面了解环境与物种分布之间的关系对于其资源的管理和保护至关重要。绿海龟(Chelonia mydas)作为典型的长距离迁徙物种, 周期性地往返于索饵地和繁殖地之间, 迁徙距离可达数千千米。物种分布模型(species distribution model, SDM)是研究环境因子信息和物种分布关系的有效工具, 可以通过环境因子数据有效模拟物种潜在分布区域。本研究结合绿海龟物种出现记录点和环境变量, 应用物种分布模型预测不同时间段的绿海龟分布情况, 得出其分布区域的时空变化, 推断洄游路线。结果表明: 离岸距离、深度和海洋表层温度对绿海龟分布起重要作用; 太平洋西部、印度洋北部和大西洋西部为绿海龟主要适宜栖息范围; 大西洋-地中海以及印度洋-太平洋之间存在绿海龟洄游通道。同时, 基于气候变化模拟了绿海龟 2050 年和 2100 年的潜在分布区域, 分布范围在印度洋中部、太平洋中西部海域减少, 在大西洋中部海域增加, 在全球范围内呈现向高纬度海域扩散的趋势。     

Applications and future challenges in marine species distribution modeling

• 1. Anthropogenic climate change affects both phenology and distribution patterns of the world's biota including marine species. During the last decade, species distribution models have been more frequently used to assess the potential distributions of species and possible effects of climate change. However, unlike for terrestrial species, there have been few investigations assessing climate change effects on distribution patterns of marine organisms.
• 2. An overview of marine species distribution modelling is given. Possibilities of how to characterize and project the environmental niches of species onto climatic change scenarios are highlighted and novel techniques for addressing specific needs in a 3‐D context are proposed. A detailed introduction into different modelling tools and databases for environmental parameters given provides a starting point for the application of these models.
• 3. Application of a species distribution model and its projections onto a glacial and future scenario on a global scale are presented for the great white shark (Carcharodon carcharias) for illustrative purposes. An approach for addressing marine migratory species with seasonal distribution patterns is presented. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

     

Modelling the advection and diffusion of eggs and larvae of Greenland halibut (Reinhardtius hippoglossoides) in the north-east Arctic

Since the late 1980s there has been considerable uncertainty in recruitment levels of the north‐east Arctic stock of Greenland halibut (Reinhardtius hippoglossoides). The abundance of several year classes, originally considered very low at 0–3 yr age, appeared higher than expected at the age of 6+. This may be due to poor targeting of recruitment surveys of the younger year classes. The present work considers the transport and dispersion of eggs and larvae of Greenland halibut by numerical modelling in order to predict the locations of the initial recruitment grounds. Current fields from a 3D baroclinic hydrodynamic model are fed into a Lagrangian particle‐tracking model developed for the Barents Sea area. The particles are released into the current at the spawning field along the shelf slope from Lofoten to Bear Island (69–75°N). Vertically, the particles can follow a predefined depth‐by‐age curve or be kept at a fixed depth. This model system is used for different years to examine changes in the drift pattern. The results indicate that spawning location, transport depth and inflowing activity to the Barents Sea are important factors influencing the distribution of juveniles.     

Masked,diluted and drowned out: how global seafood trade weakens signals from marine ecosystems

Nearly 40% of seafood is traded internationally and an even bigger proportion is affected by international trade, yet scholarship on marine fisheries has focused on global trends in stocks and catches, or on dynamics of individual fisheries, with limited attention to the link between individual fisheries, global trade and distant consumers. This paper examines the usefulness of fish price as a feedback signal to consumers about the state of fisheries and marine ecosystems. We suggest that the current nature of fisheries systems and global markets prevent transmission of such price signals from source fisheries to consumers. We propose several mechanisms that combine to weaken price signals, and present one example – the North Sea cod – to show how these mechanisms can be tested. The lack of a reliable price feedback to consumers represents a challenge for sustainable fisheries governance. We therefore propose three complimentary approaches to address the missing feedback: (i) strengthening information flow through improved traceability and visibility of individual fishers to consumers, (ii) capitalizing on the changing seafood trade structures and (iii) bypassing and complementing market mechanisms by directly targeting citizens and political actors regarding marine environmental issues through publicity and information campaigns. These strategies each have limitations and thus need to be pursued together to address the challenge of sustainability in global marine fisheries.     

The potential for new Nephrops trawl designs to positively effect North Sea stocks of cod,haddock and whiting

Within commercial fisheries, particularly mixed fisheries, both target and non-target species are often discarded. Discarding represents a potentially significant loss to the productivity of fish stocks; it can have damaging ecological consequences, and is a potential cause of the failure of recovery plans. The Nephrops fishery in the North Sea is classified as a mixed fishery. Nephrops trawls are constructed with smaller meshes than trawls used to target whitefish; consequently, the bycatch of juvenile fish can be substantial. Several new Nephrops trawl designs have been tested in the North Sea. The data from these trials are used to investigate the potential impact of their implementation on cod, haddock and whiting stocks in the North Sea (including the Kattegat and Skagerrak).The model examines five trawl designs, and also the scenarios of a cessation of discarding in all North Sea fisheries and in just the Nephrops fishery. The model is deterministic, and evaluates the relative differences between scenarios assuming all other variables remain constant. If discarding of cod, haddock and whiting in the North Sea fisheries were eliminated, stocks would increase by 41%, 14% and 29%, respectively, within 10 years. Eliminating discarding in the Nephrops fishery alone would increase stocks by 2%, 1% and 13%, respectively, reflecting the relative proportion of catches of these species in the Nephrops fishery. For cod and haddock, the introduction of the Nephrops trawl with a grid with a square-mesh codend was the only scenario in which a notable increase in stock number was observed. This trawl design facilitates the escape of fish of all ages/sizes from the trawl, effectively making the Nephrops fishery a single-species fishery. For whiting, stock numbers and landings increased under all scenarios, but forecasted landings were lower than if current discard patterns continued in all except the no-discards scenario. The dependency of the results on the validity of the assumptions and on the accuracy of the input data is discussed.     

The spot-forward relationship in the Atlantic salmon market

This study examines the Fish Pool salmon futures contract with respect to how well the market performs in terms of the futures price being an unbiased estimator of the spot price and whether the market provides a price discovery function. Using data for 2006–2014 and with futures prices with maturities up to 6 months we find that spot and lagged futures prices are cointegrated and that the futures price provides an unbiased estimate of the spot price. We also find that, with the exception of the front month, that the causality is one-directional. The spot prices lead futures prices between 1–6 months maturity. Hence, while the spot and lagged futures prices are unbiased estimates, we do not find support for the hypothesis that futures prices provide a price discovery function. Rather, it seems that innovations in the spot price influence futures prices. This finding is not uncommon in new and immature futures contracts markets. Hence, the salmon futures market is still immature and has not yet reached the stage where futures prices are able to predict future spot prices.     

Forecast skill for predicting distribution shifts: A retrospective experiment for marine fishes in the Eastern Bering Sea

Forecasting distribution shifts under novel environmental conditions is a major task for ecologists and conservationists. Researchers forecast distribution shifts using several tools including: predicting from an empirical relationship between a summary of distribution (population centroid) and annual time series (“annual regression,” AR); or fitting a habitat‐envelope model to historical distribution and forecasting given predictions of future environmental conditions (“habitat envelope,” HE). However, surprisingly little research has estimated forecast skill by fitting to historical data, forecasting distribution shifts and comparing forecasts with subsequent observations of distribution shifts. I demonstrate the important role of retrospective skill testing by forecasting poleward movement over 1‐, 2‐ or 3‐year periods for 20 fish and crab species in the Eastern Bering Sea and comparing forecasts with observed shifts. I specifically introduce an alternative vector‐autoregressive spatio‐temporal (VAST) forecasting model, which can include species temperature responses, and compare skill for AR, HE and VAST forecasts. Results show that the HE forecast has 30%–43% greater variance than predicting that future distribution is identical to the estimated distribution in the final year (a “persistence” forecast). Meanwhile, the AR explains 2%–6% and VAST explains 8%–25% of variance in poleward movement, and both have better performance than a persistence forecast. HE and AR both generate forecast intervals that are too narrow, while VAST models with or without temperature have appropriate width for forecast intervals. Retrospective skill testing for more regions and taxa should be used as a test bed to guide future improvements in methods for forecasting distribution shifts.