Relative size and stand age determine Pinus banksiana mortality

Tree mortality is a poorly understood process in the boreal forest. While large disturbances reset succession by killing all or most trees, background tree mortality was hypothesized to be affected by competition, ageing, and stand composition. We tested these hypotheses on jack pine (Pinus banksiana Lamb.) mortality using data from long-term repeatedly measured permanent sample plots collected between 1952 and 1989 in Ontario, Canada. The probability of mortality over a 5-year period was modeled using logistic regression with the maximum likelihood estimation employed for parameter estimation. Relative competitiveness measured as the ratio of individual tree diameter at breast height (DBH) to mean stand DBH explained more variation in mortality than stand age did. Mortality increased rapidly with decreasing DBH ratio. A U-shaped mortality pattern with stand age was found while stand composition had no effect on mortality. Developed by using a residual sequential regression approach, our final mixed-effects model with a 81% model correctness of mortality prediction conclusively demonstrated that relative competitiveness is the key determinant for jack pine mortality.     

Individual-tree diameter growth models for black spruce and jack pine plantations in northern Ontario

Individual-tree distance independent diameter growth models were developed for black spruce and jack pine plantations. Data used in this study came via stem analysis on 1170 black spruce (Picea mariana [Mill.] B.S.P.) and 800 jack pine (Pinus banksiana Lamb.) trees sampled from 75 stands of 25 even-aged monospecific plantations for each species in the Canadian boreal forest region of northern Ontario. Of the 75 stands, 50 were randomly selected for each species and all trees from these stands were used for model development. Trees from the remaining stands were used for model evaluation.A nonlinear mixed-effects approach was applied in fitting the diameter growth models. The predictive accuracy of the models was improved by including random effects coefficients. Four selection criteria - random, dominant or codominant, tree size close to quadratic mean diameter, and small sized - were evaluated for accuracy in predicting random effects for a new stand using the developed models. Random effects predicted based on trees selected using the random selection criterion provided more accurate diameter predictions than those using trees obtained via other selection criteria for both species. The models developed here are very important to forest managers as the diameters predicted by these models or, their stand-level summaries (i.e., basal area, average diameter), are used as inputs in any forest growth and yield models. In addition, individual-tree diameter growth models can be used to directly forecast changes in diameter distribution of stands.     

Modeling non-catastrophic individual-tree mortality for Pinus radiata plantations in northwestern Spain

An individual-tree mortality model for radiata pine (Pinus radiata D. Don) plantations in northwestern Spain was developed. The model relies on data from three inventories of a network of 130 permanent plots. The equation that predicts the probability of complete survival is a logistic function, which depends on tree size and competition (diameter, mean-squared diameter, stand basal area, dominant height and BALMOD competition index). Several methods of implementing the mortality model were tested (deterministic versus stochastic threshold selection and the use of expansion factors). The best results were obtained when using a fixed cut-off value to decide which trees would survive to the next growing period. When a cut-off value of 0.55 was applied, the model correctly classified 99% of the live trees and 25% of the dead trees. A cut-off of 0.71 provided an estimated mortality rate that was closest to the observed rate. With this cut-off value, the model correctly classified 95% of the live trees and 47% of the dead trees. This cut-off value is recommended when using the model to predict radiata pine individual-tree mortality in the study area.     

The effects of pine mistletoe (Viscum album subsp. austriacum) on the growth of Scots pine and Crimean pine in Turkey

In this study, the effect of pine mistletoe (Viscum album subsp. austriacum) on basal area increment of Crimean pine and Scots pine was investigated. Dendrochronological data were collected from 223 (71 uninfected and 152 infected) Crimean pines and 195 (77 uninfected and 118 infected) Scots pines located in Kastamonu province of Turkey in 2014. Infected sample trees were classified as light, moderate or severe infection levels. Growth trends and basal area increment loses were compared between uninfected and infected trees for the periods of the last 10, 20 and 30 years. In addition, infection status of forest stands was investigated using temporary sample plots; 27 plots in Crimean pine stands and 26 plots in Scots pine. Results demonstrated that basal area increments were negatively affected by pine mistletoe for both species. Mean basal area increment losses of infected trees for the last decade were determined as 24% for Scots pine and 26% for Crimean pine. Basal area increment losses varied by infection levels (light, moderate and severe) as follows: 25%, 20% and 28% for Scots pines and 20%, 32% and 9% for Crimean pines. Scots pine stands were more severely infected by pine mistletoe than Crimean pine stands. There were negative correlations between number of infected trees and stand density for both species, while positive correlation was detected between the number of infected trees and mean diameter for Scots pine. The results of this study indicate that the pine mistletoe infection has negative effect on radial growth of Scots pine and Crimean pine trees. The results can be an important contribution to the forest management and protection activities in mistletoe-infected stands.     

Modelling annual individual-tree growth and mortality of Scots pine with data obtained at irregular measurement intervals and containing missing observations

An individual-tree growth model was developed with data from 54 permanent plots of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) located in Galicia (northwestern Spain). The study involved two model fitting approaches, one considering constant growth and mortality rates in the period between two consecutive inventories, and another considering variable growth and mortality rates in the same period. The individual-tree growth model was based on annual basal area growth, height growth and survival probability. The model included variables from groups pertaining to tree size, competition and age. Weighted regression was used as a tool for dealing with missing height observations in model fitting. Evaluation of the model via simulation of growth and mortality in the period between inventories showed that the variable growth rate approach provided slightly better results than the constant growth rate approach. The final model was consistent with expected diameter growth, height growth, dominant height growth, stand basal area growth and reduction in number of stems per hectare.     

An individual-tree diameter growth model for managed uneven-aged oak-shortleaf pine stands in the Ozark Highlands of Missouri, USA

The Pioneer Forest encompasses more than 60,000 ha in the Ozark Highlands of Missouri, USA and has been managed using single-tree selection since the early 1950s. This paper quantifies the influence of tree size and competitive position, stand density, species composition, and site quality on ten-year (1992-2002) diameter increment within oak (Quercus spp.) and shortleaf pine (Pinus echinata Mill.) stands on the Pioneer Forest. An individual-tree model was developed for each species using mixed-effects regression and 290 inventory plots. Model efficiency (R²) ranged from 0.26 to 0.57 and fit was generally better for oak species. Basal area in larger trees (BAL) and tree diameter were significant predictors for all species and crown competition factor improved prediction for shortleaf pine and hickory (Carya spp.). Effect of species composition and site quality on diameter growth was not consistent across species. Models were evaluated using a subset of data not included in model fitting and the effect of single tree and standwise (1, 3, or 5 sample trees) calibration on model predictions were evaluated. Inclusion of random effects through calibration improved model prediction for all species and fit was best following single tree and 3 tree calibration.     

Growth responses to planting density and management intensity in loblolly pine plantations in the southeastern USA Lower Coastal Plain

? Background

A culture/density study was established in 1995 in the Lower Coastal Plain of the southeastern USA to evaluate the effects of intensive silviculture and current operational practices on the growth and yield of loblolly pine plantations across a wide range of planting densities (741–4,448 trees/ha). The operational regime consisted of bedding and herbicide application in site preparation and fertilizer applications at planting and in the eighth and 12th growing seasons. The intensive management regime had additional complete competition control, tip moths control, and more repeated fertilization treatments.

? Methods

The data from 14 locations from this split-plot experiment design with repeated measurements were analyzed with a mixed-effects model approach in terms of average DBH, average height, average dominant height, survival, stand basal area, and stand volume.

? Results

In the first few years after planting, there were no significant effects of management intensity and planting density. In later years, both management intensity and planting density significantly impacted response variables, and their interaction was only significant for average diameter at breast height (DBH). Responses to intensive management in DBH were greatest at the lowest planting densities. Intensive management resulted in larger average DBH, average height, dominant height, stand basal area, and volume. Intensively managed plots had more mortality at age 12. There were negative average DBH, average height, dominant height, and survival responses but positive stand basal area and volume responses to increasing planting density. However, there were no significant differences for planting densities above 2,224 trees/ha.

? Conclusions

The results demonstrate that both management intensity and planting density significantly affect loblolly pine productivity in the Lower Coastal Plain, and their effects are additive in nature due to the general lack of interactions.     

Individual-tree diameter growth model for sugar maple trees in uneven-aged northern hardwood stands under selection system

An individual-tree diameter model was developed for sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.) in northern hardwood stands managed under selection system. We fitted long-term remeasurement data to a linear mixed model to account for the temporal autocorrelation of the remeasurements. The model was evaluated using independent data from two physiographic regions and representing a range of tree diameter classes, residual basal areas and years since cut. We compared our model to several individual-tree models based on data from stands with varied management histories. Several competition indices were also tested for an improvement in model fitting and prediction. Our model had lower bias and prediction error when compared to two previous models, as it better accounted for the increased diameter growth that occurred in trees from appropriately managed stands. The addition of a tree-specific competition index failed to improve model fit and predictive ability over stand-level basal area.     

A basal area increment model for individual trees in mixed continuous cover forests in Iranian Caspian forests

The aim of this study was to develop and test a new basal area growth model in mixed species continuous cover forests in northern Iran.Weanalyzed 421 core samples from 6 main species in the forest area to develop our growth model.In each plot,we measured variables such as total tree height(m),diameter at breast height(DBH)(cm)and basal area of larger trees as cumulative basal areas of trees(GCUM)ofDBH[5 cm.The empirical data were analyzed using regression analysis.There was a statistically significant nonlinear function between the annual basal area increment,as the dependent variable,and the basal area of the individual trees and competition as explanatory variables.Reference area from the largest trees,was circular plot with area of 0.1 ha.GCUM was estimated for trees of DBH>5 cm.Furthermore,we investigated the dependencies of diameter growth of different species on stand density at different levels of competition,and diameter development of individual trees through time.The results indicate that competition caused by larger neighborhood trees has a negative effect on growth.In addition,the maximum diameter increment is affected by competition level.Therefore,the maximum diameter increment of species occurs when the trees are about 35–40 cm in dense-forest(40 to 0 m^2 per ha)and when the trees are about 60 to 70 cm in very dense forest(60 to 0 m^2 per ha)which is more likely to Caspian natural forests with high level density due to uneven-aged composition of stands.     

Silvicultural alternatives in an uneven-sized forest dominated by Picea abies

In this article, we report on the increments in basal area and tree diameter as well as the structural development observed in variously thinned plots that underwent either uneven- or even-sized treatment. The experimental forest was originally an uneven-sized mixed stand dominated by Picea abies. Twenty-eight randomized sample plots underwent each treatment, and the trees were monitored for 15 growing seasons after thinning. The uneven-sized plots retained a reverse J-shaped diameter distribution, but this was changed into a bell shape by low thinning in the even-sized plots. Absolute basal area increment was positively correlated with basal area in the even-sized treatment but not in the uneven-sized treatment. In the latter, all of the plots grew almost equally well, and only the basal area of broadleaves explained slightly positively the increment variation. Relative basal area increment was negatively correlated with basal area in both treatments. Additionally, the basal area of Scots pine was a positive explanatory variable in the relative increment variation in the even-sized treatment. For the dominant Norway spruce trees, diameter increment was negatively correlated with basal area in both treatments and, conversely, heavy removal increased the diameter increment. Relative basal area increment averaged 5% annually in uneven-sized plots representing the “target selection.” This was more than double the increment observed for the even-sized plots that represented the “prevailing practice.” Likewise, the diameter increment of Norway spruce trees was 48% greater in the uneven-sized compared to the even-sized plots.     

A basal area increment model for individual trees growing in even- and uneven-aged forest stands in Austria

Because of the gradual shift from pure even-aged forest management in central Europe, existing yield tables are becoming increasingly unreliable for forest management decisions. Individual tree-based stand growth modeling can make accurate stand growth predictions for the full range of conditions between pure even-aged and mixed-species uneven-aged stands. The central model in such a simulator is basal area increment for individual trees. Spatial information is not needed, and age and site index are intentionally not used to gain generality for all possible stand conditions. A basal area increment model is developed for all the main forest species in Austria: spruce (Picea abies), fir (Abies alba), larch (Larix decidua), Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris), black pine (Pinus nigra), stone pine (Pinus cembra), beech (Fagus silvatica), oak (Quercus robur, Quercus petraea and Quercus cerris), and for all other broadleaf species combined. The Austrian National Forest Inventory provided 5-year basal area increment from 44 761 remeasured trees growing on 5416 forested plots in the 1980s. This large sample is representative of forest conditions and forest management practices throughout Austria and therefore provides an excellent data base for the development of an increment model. The resulting increment model explained from 20 to 63% of the variation for all nine species and from 33 to 63% of the variation if the minor species Pinus cembra is excluded. These results compared quite closely with those of Wykoff for mixed conifer stands in the Northern Rocky Mountains. In the Austrian model, size variables (breast height diameter and crown length) accounted for 14–47% of the variation in basal area increment, depending on tree species. The best competition measure was the basal area of larger trees, which provides a tree-specific measure of competition without requiring spatial information; crown competition factor provided only minor improvement. Competition variables accounted for 9% of the variation on average, and up to 15% for some species. Topographic factors (elevation, slope, aspect) explained up to 3% of the variation, as did soil factors. Remaining site factors; such as vegetation type and growth district accounted for a maximum of 3% of the variation in increment. In total, site factors explained from 2 to 6% of the variation. Even though site factors account for a small percentage of the variation, they are not only significant, but serve to localize a particular prediction. These species-specific interrelationships between basal area increment and the various size, competition, and site varibles correspond quite well with ecological expectations and silvicultural understanding of these species in Austria. Because the sample base is so strong, the resulting growth models can be recommended not only for all of Austria but for surrounding regions with similar growth conditions.     

Effects of competition and climate variables on modelling height to live crown for three boreal tree species in Alberta,Canada

Using tree data from permanent sample plots and climate data from the ClimateWNA model, mixed-effects height to live crown (HTC) models were developed for three boreal tree species in Alberta, Canada: trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.), lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia Engelm.) and white spruce (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss). Three model forms, the Wykoff model, a logistic model and an exponential model, were evaluated for each species. Tree height was the most significant predictor of HTC and was used in all models. In addition, we investigated the effects of competition and climatic variables on HTC modelling. Height–diameter ratio and either total stand basal area or basal area of coniferous trees were used as competition measures in the models. Different climate variables were evaluated, and spring degree-days below 0 °C, mean annual precipitation and summer heat–moisture index were incorporated into the aspen, lodgepole pine and white spruce models, respectively. Site index was only significant in lodgepole pine models. Residual variances were modelled as functions of tree height to account for heteroscedasticity still present in the mixed-effects models after the inclusion of random parameters. Based on model fitting and validation results as well as biological realism, the mixed-effects Wykoff models were the best for aspen and white spruce, and the mixed-effects logistic model was the best for lodgepole pine.     

造林技术措施对10年生马尾松幼林生长的影响

在处台江县革东镇设置了反映马尾松人工造林各主要技术环节的傈,在对试验林固定样地进行定期、定位测定的基础上,采用数量化理论１方法分析研究了不同造林技术措施对马尾松幼林生长的影响。结果表明,主要造林技术措施对马尾松幼林生长自大 的影响顺序为：立地选择,种要密度,幼林施工。其中立地选择、种源选择和造林密度是马尾松人工造林最关键的技术环节,幼林施肥对马尾松幼林分的生长有一定影响,整地方式则无明显影响,运用     

Comparing an individual tree growth model for <Emphasis Type="Italic">Pinus halepensis</Emphasis> Mill. in the Spanish region of Murcia with yield tables gained from the same area

To support forest management decisions on converting stands from even-aged to uneven-aged management, tree models are needed that can simulate both options. Therefore, an individual tree model for Pinus halepensis Mill. is compared with the respective yield table. The individual tree model is built from data of two Spanish forest inventories in this province and evaluated with published yield tables, which have been built from permanent observational plots. The individual tree model consists of a basal area increment model and a height increment model, both based on two measurements of about 4,000 trees from single species stands of Aleppo pine. The R2 values of 0.362 and 0.107 for the basal area increment model and the height increment model, respectively, are within the range of other published models of this type. Comparing the model with the yield tables for different site indices, we find that our model matches the yield table well. Only in higher ages where the database for the yield table was poor, our model indicates higher basal area growth rates than the yield table.     

From seedlings to trees: Using ontogenetic models of growth and survivorship to assess long-term (>100 years) dynamics of a neotropical dry forest

Long-term tree and seedling growth and survivorship data from permanent sample plots established in a neotropical dry forest in Jamaica from 1998 to 2008 were used to (1) model growth (periodic annual increment) and survivorship dynamics, (2) cluster structural and functional types, and (3) estimate the age of selected tropical dry forest tree species. A statistical comparison of parameter estimates derived from a generalized linear model (GLM) of each species to a reference species was used to group individuals based on size (DBH and height), and demographic dynamics (periodic annual increment and survivorship). We identified two groups of species based on structural types (canopy and sub-canopy species), three groups of species based on periodic annual increment (fast, intermediate, and slow growing) and four groups of species based on the probability of survivorship of seedlings and trees (very low probability of seedling survivorship but high tree survivorship (two groups); high survivorship throughout the DBH classes; very low survivorship, regardless of stem size). The composition of the groups was mixed, and included individuals of both structural types, and with different periodic annual increment and survival probabilities. The dichotomy of guilds found in tropical rainforests (pioneer and climax species) was not found in this forest. Individual and group GLMs incorporating empirical relationships between periodic annual increment and survivorship, across a spectrum of ontogenies and DBH’s, were also generated. The periodic annual increment models were then used to estimate the time taken by a newly germinated seedling to reach the largest recorded DBH. The fastest growing species was the hemi-cryptophyte Clusia flava which was estimated to take 74 years to reach its maximum recorded size (12.1 cm DBH), whereas the slowest growing species, Ziziphus sarcomphalus, was estimated to take 399 years to reach its maximum size (24.4 cm DBH). These dry forest trees were estimated to reach their maximum size (which was one-half or one-third of the largest DBH recorded for tropical rainforests) in a time similar to tropical rainforest trees. Some of the tree species are ubiquitous to other neotropical dry forests; therefore, our equations for periodic annual increment and survivorship can be applied elsewhere in the region.     

Assessment of bias due to random measurement errors in stem volume growth estimation by the Swedish National Forest Inventory

Abstract

We evaluated the performance of two methods for estimating stem volume increment at individual tree level with respect to bias due to random measurement errors. Here, growth is either predicted as the difference between two consecutive volume estimates where single-tree volume functions are applied to data from repeated measurements or by a regression model that is applied to data from a single survey and includes radial increment. In national forest inventories (NFIs), the first method is typically used for permanent plots, the second for temporary plots. The Swedish NFI combines estimates from both plot types to assess growth at national and regional scales and it is, therefore, important that the two methods provide similar results. The accuracy of these estimates is affected by random measurement errors in the independent variables, which may lead to systematic errors in predicted variables due to model non-linearity. Using Taylor series expansion and empirical data from the Swedish NFI we compared the expected bias in stem volume growth estimates for different diameter classes of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) and Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.). Our results indicate that both methods are fairly insensitive to random measurement errors of the size that occur in the Swedish NFI. The empirical comparison between the two methods showed greater differences for large diameter trees of both pine and spruce. A likely explanation is that the regressions are uncertain because few large trees were available for developing the models.     

Impacts of thinning on structure,growth and risk of crown fire in a Pinus sylvestris L. plantation in northern Spain

We studied the combined effects of thinning on stand structure, growth, and fire risk for a Scots pine thinning trial in northern Spain 4 years following treatment. The thinning treatments were: no thinning, heavy thinning (32–46% of basal area removed) and very heavy thinning (51–57% of basal area removed). Thinning was achieved via a combination of systematic and selective methods by removing every seventh row of trees and then by cutting suppressed and subdominant trees in the remaining rows (i.e., thinning from below). Four years after thinning, mean values and probability density distributions of stand structural indices showed that the heavier the thinning, the stronger the tendency towards random tree spatial positions. Height and diameter differentiation were initially low for these plantations and decreased after the 4-year period in both control and thinned plots. Mark variograms indicated low spatial autocorrelation in tree diameters at short distances. Diameter increment was significantly correlated with the inter-tree competition indices, and also with the mean directional stand structural index. Two mixed models were proposed for estimating diameter increment using a spatial index based on basal area of larger trees (BALMOD) in one model versus spatial competition index by Bella in the other model. As well, a model to estimate canopy bulk density (CBD) was developed, as this variable is important for fire risk assessment. Both heavy and very heavy thinning resulted in a decrease of crown fire risk over no thinning, because of the reduction in CBD. However, thinning had no effect on the height to crown base and thus on the flame length for torching. Overall, although thinning did not increase size differentiation between trees in the short term, the increase in diameter increment following thinning and the reduction of crown fire risks support the use of thinning. Also, thinning is a necessary first step towards converting Scots pine plantations to more natural mixed broadleaved woodlands. In particular, the very heavy thinning treatment could be considered a first step towards conversion of overstocked stands.     

Growth models for Pinus patula in Angola

This study developed growth models for Pinus patula Schiede ex Schltdl. et Cham. for the Central Highlands of Angola for simulating the development of stand characteristics. The model set included dominant height, individual-tree diameter increment, individual-tree height and self-thinning models. The study was based on 7 656 radial increment observations obtained from increment cores from eight plots located in five sites in the Angolan Highlands. The model set enables the simulation of stand development on an individual tree basis. Despite the fact that site variation among the plots was small, a traditional site category index based on slope catena correlated logically with the observed diameter growth rate of the plots. The developed models showed a high level of accuracy when the simulated stand development was compared to observed development. The shape of the dominant height model is similar to earlier models developed in southern Africa.     

桂西南马尾松人工林生长对不同强度采伐的动态响应

[目的]研究不同强度采伐下马尾松的生长动态,筛选适宜的采伐强度,为马尾松人工林近自然经营提供技术支撑。[方法]2007年10月在14年生马尾松人工林(保存密度1 100株·hm~(-2))内进行采伐试验,设置4个采伐强度,即保留密度分别为225、300、375、450株·hm~(-2),以不采伐为对照;其后,自2008年开始连续8 a,每2 a测定1次马尾松的胸径、树高、枝下高和冠面积等生长指标,并计算单株材积和林分蓄积量,应用方差分析和Duncan多重比较分析生长指标对不同采伐强度的动态响应。[结果]表明:采伐强度显著影响林分生长,其中,林分平均胸径、单株材积、冠面积的年均增长量随保留密度增大而减小,但均显著高于对照(P0.05)。采伐后第1 3年,马尾松冠面积增长量显著高于采伐后期,胸径则在采伐后第3 5年最高,而不同采伐强度对林分树高生长影响不明显。保留密度显著影响林分枝下高和蓄积量的动态变化,其年均增长量随密度增大而递增。5个处理间林分蓄积年均增长量的差异随林龄的增大而逐渐缩小。[结论]马尾松人工林生长对不同强度采伐的动态响应以树冠最敏感,冠面积首先陡然增大,进而引起胸径的快速生长。树高和枝下高在采伐后年均增量变化相对平稳。4个采伐强度均显著促进单株材积生长,而仅保留密度为225株·hm~(-2)的采伐对林分蓄积增长量影响显著。综合比较林分的单株材积和林分蓄积连年增长量,建议在桂西南15年生马尾松人工林近自然经营中宜选择300株·hm~(-2)的保留密度进行采伐。     

基于线性混合模型的落叶松枝条基径模型

以黑龙江省五营林业局丽林林场30株人工落叶松2 190个枝条基径数据为例,利用逐步回归技术建立了落叶松枝条基径模型:BD=b1+b2DINC+b3DINC2+b4DBH.DINC2。然后,利用S-PLUS软件中的LME过程,拟合线性枝基径模型。采用AIC、BIC、对数似然值和似然比检验等模型评价统计指标对不同模型的拟合效果进行比较分析。结果表明:当拟合枝条基径模型时,b1、b2、b3同时作为混合参数时模型拟合最好。为了矫正混合模型构建过程中产生的异方差现象,把幂函数和指数函数加入到枝条基径混合模型中。指数函数显著提高了枝条基径混合模型的拟合效果,并且消除了异方差现象。模型模拟表明:对于大小相同树木,枝条基径随着着枝深度(DINC)的增加而增大,对于大小不同的树木,枝条基径随着胸径(DBH)的增加而增大。林木的胸径变量很好地反映了不同大小树木的枝条基径的变化。在不知道详细林分信息的前提下,可以利用树木变量合理地预测兴安落叶松人工林的枝条基径的变化规律。