Structure and regeneration dynamics of dominant tree species along altitudinal gradient in a dry valley slopes of the Bhutan Himalaya

The aim of our study was to characterize the structure and regeneration dynamics of dominant tree species along altitudinal gradient in dry valley slopes of the Bhutan Himalaya. In the typical dry valley slopes of west-central Bhutan, we analyzed forest stratification, tree crown projection, and population structure from lower dry valley bottom (1520 m a.s.l.) to upper humid ridge top (3370 m a.s.l.) across five major forest types: i.e. (1) dry pine forest with Pinus roxburghii as a dominant species; (2) mixed broad-leaved forest with Quercus lanata (evergreen), Quercus griffithii, (deciduous), and Rhododendron arboreum (evergreen) as major canopy species; (3) evergreen broad-leaved forest dominated by Quercus semecarpifolia, Quercus glauca and Quercus oxyodon; (4) cool conifer forest dominated by Abies densa and Tsuga dumosa; (5) cold conifer forest with A. densa and Juniperus recurva as dominants. In general, regeneration pattern of major dominant species shifted from inverse-J (lower altitudes), to sporadic (mid-altitudes), and to uni-modal type (upper altitudes) corresponding to three regeneration trends: (1) invasive at the lower, warm, dry forest under relatively strong human disturbances; (2) stable/balanced at the mid-altitude, in a relatively stable, mature moist evergreen broad-leaved forest with gap regeneration; and (3) poor/low regeneration at the upper, cool, humid conifer forest with a continuously cattle-grazed understory. Overall, regeneration patterns were balanced in all forest types, however care should be taken to prevent excessive exploitation of dry pine forest of lower valley bottom, and to control cattle grazing at higher altitudes. Our findings can be incorporated into management plans for sustainable management and conservation of mountain forests.     

Changes in the stand structure of a pine forest after rapid growth of Quercus serrata Thunb.

We studied the species composition and stand structure of secondary pine forests affected by pine wilt disease, caused by epidemic attacks of the nematode Bursaphelenchus xylophilus, in western Japan. Based on the species composition, the vegetation was divided into four types: (1) Cladonia rangiferina, (2) Wikstroemia sikokiana, (3) Quercus glauca, and (4) Gleichenia japonica. The sequence of types from (1) to (3) represents a successional series in accordance with topographical position. The relative basal areas of Rhododendron reticulatum and Juniperus rigida in the C. rangiferina and W. sikokiana types were larger than in the Q. glauca type. The relative basal areas of Q. serrata, Clethra barbinervis, and Eurya japonica in the C. rangiferina and W. sikokiana types were less than in the Q. glauca type. The mortality of light-demanding trees was higher in the Q. glauca type than in the C. rangiferina and W. sikokiana types. In stands that were severely affected by pine wilt disease, light was reduced and soil became moist after rapid growth of Q. serrata and other species which are not affected by the disease. The numbers of species and components of evergreen broad-leaved natural forests were decreased, because pine forests in the study area had been cut frequently and the land had degraded. Pine wilt disease has shifted the dominance of pine forests from Pinus densiflora to deciduous oaks such as Q. serrata and physical conditions seemed to provide a safe site for shade-tolerant plant species, which are components of evergreen broad-leaved forests. Moreover, the seed dispersal of evergreen oaks appears to be an important factor in the succession to evergreen broad-leaved forest in degraded areas.     

Effects of mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins) infestations on forest stand structure in the southern Canadian Rocky Mountains

Forests in the montane and lower subalpine ecoregions of the southern Canadian Rocky Mountains may have been more open and structurally diverse at the beginning of the 20th Century than today. Today, the area of mature Pinus contorta subsp. latifolia Dougl. forest that is conducive to mountain pine beetle (MPB, Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins) infestations, infrequent high severity fires, and herbivory appears to have increased in Banff and Kootenay National Parks. Based on a review of the literature, we hypothesised that MPB infestations increase forest stand structural diversity and tree species diversity. Stand structure parameters were investigated in mesic montane and lower subalpine stands approximately 15, 25, and 65 years after MPB outbreaks. Parameters measured were stand density (number of trees per ha), diameter at breast height, height class, species, age class distribution, and coarse woody debris mass. Influences of fire frequency, time since fire, and fire severity on these parameters were assessed to determine whether fire history had a confounding influence on stand structure. The Shannon–Wiener index indicated higher stand structural diversity 15 years but not 25 and 65 years after MPB infestations. MPB infestations led to general decreases within stands in the number of living trees, small diameter snags, and Pinus tree species and an increase within stands in the number of large diameter snags. Management that allows the occurrence of the natural fire regime of variable severity fires, in addition to some MPB infestations, would provide for more open and diverse stands. MPB infestations have some effects on stand structure that are similar to those of fire. Changes in stand structure resulting from recent declines in burning rates within Banff and Kootenay National Parks can be reversed to some extent by MPB infestations.     

秦岭林区天然油松林结构研究初报

对秦岭林区天然油松林年龄结构，直径结构分析研究表明，天然油松林按林层和林龄可划为单层异龄林和复层异龄林两类。单层异龄林的天然更新表现出明显的连续性和阶段性，而复层异龄油松林的年龄结构出现多世代波动现，直径结构的波动随林龄的增加，其偏度具有一定的方向性。     

The effects of pine mistletoe (Viscum album subsp. austriacum) on the growth of Scots pine and Crimean pine in Turkey

In this study, the effect of pine mistletoe (Viscum album subsp. austriacum) on basal area increment of Crimean pine and Scots pine was investigated. Dendrochronological data were collected from 223 (71 uninfected and 152 infected) Crimean pines and 195 (77 uninfected and 118 infected) Scots pines located in Kastamonu province of Turkey in 2014. Infected sample trees were classified as light, moderate or severe infection levels. Growth trends and basal area increment loses were compared between uninfected and infected trees for the periods of the last 10, 20 and 30 years. In addition, infection status of forest stands was investigated using temporary sample plots; 27 plots in Crimean pine stands and 26 plots in Scots pine. Results demonstrated that basal area increments were negatively affected by pine mistletoe for both species. Mean basal area increment losses of infected trees for the last decade were determined as 24% for Scots pine and 26% for Crimean pine. Basal area increment losses varied by infection levels (light, moderate and severe) as follows: 25%, 20% and 28% for Scots pines and 20%, 32% and 9% for Crimean pines. Scots pine stands were more severely infected by pine mistletoe than Crimean pine stands. There were negative correlations between number of infected trees and stand density for both species, while positive correlation was detected between the number of infected trees and mean diameter for Scots pine. The results of this study indicate that the pine mistletoe infection has negative effect on radial growth of Scots pine and Crimean pine trees. The results can be an important contribution to the forest management and protection activities in mistletoe-infected stands.     

Stand structure, competition and growth of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) in a Mediterranean mountainous environment

The relationship between competition and tree growth was studied in four stands of Pinus sylvestris L. occurring in a continental Mediterranean mountain area (in the Guadarrama range, Spain), i.e., an uneven-aged stand, a stand with oak (Quercus pyrenaica Willd.) understorey, a plantation, and a mature even-aged stand. Competition was measured by a simple size-ratio distance-independent index and was negatively associated with tree diameter. This negative association was stronger in the uneven-aged, plantation and mature even-aged stands than in the stand with oak understorey. Competition was also negatively associated with current diameter increment. This relationship was moderately strong in the mature even-aged stand and weak in the uneven-aged stand and the plantation. In the uneven-aged and the mature even-aged stands, a weakly significant relationship was found between diameter growth and tree size, whereas these parameters were not associated in the stand with oak understorey. The competition index provided a better prediction of growth rate than the alternative use of diameter. Both diameter and basal area growth were greater in the uneven-aged than in the even-aged stands.     

Dynamic simulations of mixed broadleaved-Pinus koraiensis forests in the Changbaishan biosphere reserve of China

The development of mixed broadleaved-Korean pine (Pinus koraiensis Sieb. et Zucc.) forests in the Changbaishan Biosphere Reserve, located on the border with North Korea, was simulated using the gap model KOPIDE. Forest succession was simulated under three initial conditions from: (1) bare ground after clearcutting; (2) secondary forest; (3) old-growth forest. The simulations from the different initial conditions converged and support earlier successional theory that Korean pine is the climax species on the highlands of northeast China even under disturbed conditions. In addition to clear-cutting, the resilience of the forest to different levels of other human impacts, pine seed harvesting and selective cutting, was examined. These results further demonstrate that these forests possess a relatively stable structure characterized by the dominance of Korean pine. However, the model showed successional processes of the forest to be susceptible to high levels of pine seed harvesting. To predict forest dynamics at landscape scales, KOPIDE was linked with a Geographic Information System containing site and stand data sets. Running this model to simulate a forested area initially comprising several successional stages suggests that, in the absence of disturbance, Korean pine is likely to become increasingly dominant on the area over the next century.     

Comparing an individual tree growth model for <Emphasis Type="Italic">Pinus halepensis</Emphasis> Mill. in the Spanish region of Murcia with yield tables gained from the same area

To support forest management decisions on converting stands from even-aged to uneven-aged management, tree models are needed that can simulate both options. Therefore, an individual tree model for Pinus halepensis Mill. is compared with the respective yield table. The individual tree model is built from data of two Spanish forest inventories in this province and evaluated with published yield tables, which have been built from permanent observational plots. The individual tree model consists of a basal area increment model and a height increment model, both based on two measurements of about 4,000 trees from single species stands of Aleppo pine. The R2 values of 0.362 and 0.107 for the basal area increment model and the height increment model, respectively, are within the range of other published models of this type. Comparing the model with the yield tables for different site indices, we find that our model matches the yield table well. Only in higher ages where the database for the yield table was poor, our model indicates higher basal area growth rates than the yield table.     

Effect of drought on diameter increment of Quercus ilex, Phillyrea latifolia, and Arbutus unedo in a holm oak forest of NE Spain

The present study was carried out to elucidate the drought growth responses of Quercus ilex L., Phillyrea latifolia L., Arbutus unedo L., and other accompanying woody species of the Mediterranean holm oak forest. We submitted holm oak forest stands in Prades mountains (NE Spain) to a 2-year experimental drought. We reduced soil water availability about 15% by plastic strips and funnels that partially excluded rain throughfall and by ditch interception of water runoff. Mean stem diameter increment showed a great variation depending on the species. A. unedo had larger growth rates than Q. ilex and P. latifolia, but it was also the species that experimented the highest growth reduction in the drought plots (77%), suggesting a higher drought sensitivity than Q. ilex (55%) and P. latifolia (no drought effect). The growth reduction was specially marked in the larger trees. Aboveground stand biomass increment, estimated from stem diameter by allometric relationships, was 1.9 Mg ha⁻¹ per year in the control plots. The 15% reduction in the upper soil moisture produced 42% reduction in this biomass increment. In the drier conditions predicted in this Mediterranean area in the frame of climate change, an important reduction of growth rates can be hence expected, accompanied by a gain of dominance of drought-tolerant species such as P. latifolia in detriment of more mesic species such as Q. ilex.     

Truffle abundance and mycophagy by northern flying squirrels in eastern Washington forests

Although much is known about truffle abundance and rodent mycophagy in mesic Douglas-fir forests in the Pacific Northwest, few data are available for dry interior montane forests dominated by ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa), Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii), and grand fir (Abies grandis). Our objective was to quantify the relationship between the abundance and diversity of ectomycorrhizal fungal sporocarps in the soil and in the diets of northern flying squirrels (Glaucomys sabrinus) in low-elevation forests of the eastern Washington Cascades. We randomly sampled four stands each of three cover types: dry open ponderosa pine, mesic young mixed-conifer forest, and mesic mature mixed-conifer forest. We sampled the soil for hypogeous sporocarps during the spring of 1999 and 2000. We collected fecal pellets from 318 flying squirrels live-trapped during the fall of 1997–2000. We sampled 2400 m² of soil surface and found truffles in 40% of 600 plots. Total biomass collected was 609 g. Spring truffle biomass on a kg/ha basis averaged 1.72 in open pine, 3.56 in young, and 4.11 in mature forest. Twenty-two species were collected across all cover types, with all but three species belonging to the Basidiomycotina. Eleven dominant species accounted for 91–94% of truffle biomass in each cover type. Four dominant species accounted for 60–70% of spring truffle biomass: Gautieria monticola, Hysterangium coriaceum, Rhizopogon parksii, and R. vinicolor. Truffle assemblages, richness and total biomass differed among cover types: richness and biomass were highest in young and mature mixed-conifer forest, and lowest in open ponderosa pine forest. Fall squirrel diets were composed of 23 genera or groups of fungi, plus about 22% plant material. Rhizopogon was the most abundant genus in the diet, followed by plant material, then Gautieria, Leucogaster, Alpova, and Hysterangium. Diets in different cover types were similar in the composition, richness, evenness, and the ratio of fungus to plant material. Diet richness varied over the study period. Nineteen truffle genera were detected in fall fecal samples versus 12 in spring soil samples. Management of low-elevation dry forest to maintain or restore stable fire regimes might reduce truffle diversity at stand scales by simplifying stand composition and structure; but, such management might increase long-term beta and landscape truffle diversity and persistence by reducing the occurrence of high-intensity fires and stabilizing inherent fire disturbance regimes.     

Pines versus oaks: effects of fire on the composition of Madrean forests in Arizona

I examined contrasts in response to moderate-intensity fire between two pine species (Pinus leiophylla Schiede and Deppe and P. engelmannii Carr.) and four oak species (Quercus hypoleucoides Camus., Q. arizonica Sarg., Q. emoryi Torr., and Q. rugosa Nee.) in Madrean forests in southeastern Arizona. Stem survival of pines after fire was greater than for oaks, but oaks sprouted more successfully after top-kill than did the only sprouting pine species, P. leiophylla. As a result, post-fire decline and subsequent recovery in oak populations was more marked than for the pines, and the ratio of oaks to pines decreased as a result of fire but increased during recovery. In typical forest stands, most individuals established from 1860 to 1920 at the interface between a period of high fire frequency and the onset of fire exclusion. Ages of Q. hypoleucoides were more clustered than for the pines, suggesting post-fire sprouting rather than long-term top-survival of fire. The results point to contrasts in mechanisms of persistence in this fire-prone ecosystem: fire resistance in the pines versus post-fire sprouting in the oaks. As a result, fire regime controls the balance between the two groups, with moderate-intensity fire favoring the pines and periods of low fire frequency – due to natural causes or anthropogenic fire exclusion – favoring the oaks. The species and community response patterns found in this study may apply generally to other pine-oak communities.     

Canopy cover effects on mass loss, and nitrogen and phosphorus dynamics from decomposing litter in oak and pine stands in northern Lower Michigan

Patterns of litter decomposition and nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) release in relation to various levels of canopy cover were examined using litterbags placed on the forest floor of northern red oak (Quercus rubra L.) and red pine (Pinus resinosa Ait.) stands in northern Lower Michigan, USA. A series of experimental plots consisted of four levels of canopy cover treatments, i.e. clearcut, 25% (50% during first sampling year), 75%, and uncut. Mass loss from decomposing leaves was higher for oak leaves in red oak stands (approximately 60% loss of the original mass) than for pine needles in red pine stands (approximately 40% loss of the original mass) during the 2 year study period. Leaf mass loss in the clearcut red oak treatment was significantly higher than in the uncut red oak treatment. In contrast, no canopy cover effects on litter mass loss were found in red pine stands. Nitrogen concentrations in decomposing litter increased during the 2 year period in all canopy cover treatments in both stand types, but they did not differ significantly among canopy cover treatments. These results indicate that various levels of red oak and red pine canopy removal generally have a minor impact on litter decomposition and nutrient (N and P) release during the first 2 years following canopy manipulation, except in red oak clearcuts.     

Modeling successional patterns of high-elevation forests under changing herbivore pressure – responses at the landscape level

We describe an ecological risk assessment for determining the potential long-term impacts of browsing by red deer, roe deer and chamois on the stand dynamics of mountain forests in xeric parts of Central Europe. The assessment is performed by applying a forest succession model of the FORET/JABOWA type which was supplemented with an empirically based browsing subroutine to simulate the effects of browsing by red and roe deer, and chamois. The following scenarios are assumed: (1) no browsing; (2) actual browsing intensity as determined in field trials; (3) browsing intensity twice as high as in scenario (2); and (4) browsing intensity three times as high as in scenario (2). The simulations for two different forest sites in the subalpine region of Eastern Switzerland revealed that heavy browsing can alter development and composition of the observed forests. The extent of this alteration was influenced not only by high browsing intensity, but also by the selection of tree species which were browsed on a particular site at the same time. Taking into account all the uncertainties of the model approach, we conclude from our preliminary studies that, in the regions considered, even strong herbivore pressure (2–3 times today's values) is not a major threat for the survival of the forest as a biological resource, i.e. the long-term total woody biomass is not altered significantly and the changes in the successional pathways are not dramatic. High browsing intensities, however, alter the forest structure considerably. We found that heavily browsed forests tend to be more open, mortality is higher and trees reach an intermediate and adult size quicker. This shortened development cycle of the stands may have implications for forest functions. The risk assessment yields critical values for mean browsing intensity, ‘MBI', (Pinus cembra/Pinus mugo: 30%; Picea abies: 50%; and Larix decidua: 40%), below which successional patterns and forest structures with browsing are not significantly different from forest succession without browsing.     

Modelling the edge effect in even-aged Monterey pine (Pinus radiata D. Don) stands

Six edge effect models are presented. Modelling results for the edge effect on the DBH, total height, crown height, and basal area in even-aged stands of Monterey pine (Pinus radiata D. Don) are provided. Free edges and edges under external competition pressure were analysed. Model fitting was carried out in two phases. In the first phase, independent fittings for each border type by sampled cardinal point in each stand were carried out to detect differences in edge effect intensity and depth according to edge aspect. In the second fitting phase, the best models selected by edge aspect in the first phase were restricted to estimate the same value for each variable in the stand interior, independently of the border where it was analysed.

The edge effect intensity and depth varied depending on the analysed variable and edge type. Modelling of the edge effect on DBH and total height on free edges of old stands requires a model with independent parameters for each border aspect; the models can be restricted to estimate the average value of each variable in stand interior. A model with independent parameters for each border aspect should be also used for modelling the effect on total height, crown height and basal area for the edges of young stands under external competition pressure. The modelling of basal area and crown height on free edges of old stands, DBH on edges of young stands under external competition pressure, and all variables mentioned on free edges of young stands can be carried out through an average fitting. DBH and basal area are directly affected by stand density; thus, modelling of edge effect on these and others variables which are affected by stand density can improve with the inclusion of a competition index or a point density index.     

Acorn dispersal and predation patterns of four tree species by wood mice in abandoned cut-over land

We compared patterns of acorn dispersal and predation by wood mice among four tree species (Quercus serrata, Quercus crispula, Castanea crenata, and Juglans mandshurica var. sieboldiana) that are abundant in cool temperate woodlands. We devised an acorn dispersal experiment using 400 magnet-inserted acorns and a magnetic locator in a 1.8-ha study plot, which spanned a cut-over area and an adjacent deciduous forest. Ten wire mesh baskets, each containing 40 acorns (10 acorns per species), were placed on the border between these two habitat types. About 13.0% (n = 52) of the total acorns remained in the baskets, while 77.3% (n = 309) were dispersed throughout the study plot and subsequently retrieved using the magnetic locator. Microhabitat, distance, and burial depth of transported acorns were significantly different among species. In the cut-over area, J. mandshurica var. sieboldiana acorns were dispersed under fallen trees or branches and near stumps, and were buried deeply in the soil. Dispersal distances of J. mandshurica var. sieboldiana acorns were significantly greater than those of Q. serrata acorns. The number and microhabitat of transported acorns significantly differed between habitat types. J. mandshurica var. sieboldiana acorns were dispersed in the cut-over area rather than in the forest. For all four species, the numbers of acorns delivered to fallen trees or branches, stumps, and crumbled soil with overhang under any vegetation type were greater in the cut-over area than in the forest.     

Detecting forest stress and decline in response to increasing river flow in southwest Florida, USA

Forest stress and decline resulting from increased river levels were investigated in Myakka River State Park (MRSP), FL, USA. Since 1977, land-use changes around the upper Myakka River watershed have resulted in significant increases in water entering the river, which have caused extensive mortality in the upper watershed. The present study assessed whether similar forest stress and mortality was occurring downstream within the park. Our objectives were to (1) determine if tree die-off and/or stress resulting from increased river levels were present in MRSP and (2) determine the relationship between historical and present river levels regimes and growth of actively managed forested stands undergoing restoration located both above and below a dam. We used two methodological approaches. The first was recording indications of tree stress and decline (crown dieback, crown thinning, trunk rot, foliage discoloration, and parasitism) in Fraxinus caroliniana Miller dominated forested wetlands, Pinus elliottii Englem. var. densa Little & Dorman dominated mesic pine flatwoods, and Quercus laurifolia Michaux dominated oak palm hammocks. Our second approach was tree-ring analyses, which allows for more detailed analyses of growth in response to precipitation and river flow (a surrogate variable for water table depth) in the pine flatwoods stands.

Our results indicate significant stress and decline in some forested wetlands upstream of the dam, significant mortality in wet-mesic pine flatwoods sites close to the river, and significant amounts of stress in wet-mesic pine flatwoods sites upstream of the dam. F. caroliniana sites located upstream of the dam had more individuals with symptoms of stress than those downstream of the dam (67% versus 43%, P=0.031). In Q. laurifolia sites, 70–85% of the trees had evidence of flooding stress and mortality, which is comparable to distributions found in severely disturbed forest in the upper watershed. P. elliottii var. densa sites located <1000 m from the river had higher mortality than sites located >1050 m from the river (P<0.01), and the stressed trees in sites upstream of the dam had significantly lower growth rates in the 1990s versus the 1960s than those downstream. Although, the onset of stress and decline coincided with increasing river levels, we found that river levels were positively correlated with tree growth, both before and after flow increases in the system. Increasing river levels may play an indirect role through increased competition in the stress and decline in wet-mesic pine flatwoods, however, increased river levels seems to be the direct cause for stress and decline found in forested wetland stands.     

Annual allowable cut for merchantable woody species in a community managed forest in western Kenya

Changes in stand density, basal area, off-take and annual increment were determined from 18 permanent sample plots established in 1997 in Got Ramogi Forest in western Kenya. The plots were assessed in 2003 and 2008. A total of 824 stems ?1.5 m in height were recorded from 43 woody species. Key merchantable woody species comprised 20% of the woody species and 67% of the overall stem density. There was a significant reduction in the overall stand density and in the stem density of key merchantable woody species, but not among other woody species between 1997 and 2008. The basal area decreased significantly among key merchantable woody species, but not for the overall forest. The basal area decreased from 22.6 to 9.7 m² ha⁻¹ for key merchantable woody species. The stand volume of key merchantable woody species decreased from 156 m³ ha⁻¹ in 1997 to 61.7 m³ ha⁻¹ in 2008. The mean annual off-take declined from 10.3 m³ ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ between 1997 and 2003 to 9.1 m³ ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ between 2003 and 2008, while the mean annual increment increased from 2.9 to 3.3 m³ ha⁻¹ year⁻¹. It was predicted that forest recovery would surpass the 1997 stand volume of 156 m³ ha⁻¹ if off-take levels between 10% and 90% of the mean annual increment were adopted. We settled on an annual allowable cut of 80% of the mean annual increment as a compromise between consumptive and conservation interests. We identified over-harvesting as the main cause of the reduction in stem density among key merchantable woody species. A management plan with compartment registers indicating the diversity, abundance and distribution of each woody species was recommended to guide their utilization and monitor their population dynamics.     

Testing site index–site-factor relationships for predicting Pinus contorta and Picea engelmannii×P. glauca productivity in central British Columbia, Canada

Measures of forest productivity for various site conditions are necessary for forest management planning, where timber production is the objective. This study was undertaken to test whether autecological productivity relationships developed for lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) and interior spruce (Picea engelmannii×P. glauca) using the biogeoclimatic ecosystem classification system of British Columbia are useful as practical field-based procedures to predict site index. Independent data sets consisting of 111 plots for pine and 114 plots for spruce were collected for use in testing the bias and precision of the models. A regression on residuals (predicted minus test values) indicated that the lodgepole pine model was unbiased in estimating site index (p=0.08). However, there was a lack of precision, with a square root of the mean squared prediction error (root-MSPR) of 2.8 m. Only 56% of the test plots had differences from the predicted values of 2.0 m or less. Residual analysis showed that the interior spruce model was biased in estimating site index (p<0.01), generally predicting greater site index than the test values. The model also lacked precision, with a root-MSPR of 3.2 m. Only 44% of the test plots had differences from the predicted values of 2.0 m or less. Forest managers requiring a site-index prediction tool need to decide whether the degree of accuracy precision provided by these models is acceptable.     

Individual tree diameter increment model for managed even-aged stands of ponderosa pine throughout the western United States using a multilevel linear mixed effects model

A diameter increment model is developed and evaluated for individual trees of ponderosa pine throughout the species range in the United States using a multilevel linear mixed model. Stochastic variability is broken down among period, locale, plot, tree and within-tree components. Covariates acting at tree and stand level, as breast height diameter, density, site index, and competition indices are included in the model as fixed effects in order to explain residual variability. The data set used in this study came from long-term permanent research plots in even-aged, pure stands both planted and of natural origin. The data base consists of six levels-of-growing stock studies supplemented by initial spacing and other permanent-plot thinning studies for a total of 310 plots, 34,263 trees and 153,854 observations. Regression analysis is the preferred technique used in growth and yield modeling in forestry. We choose the mixed effects models instead of the regression analysis approach because it allows for proper treatment of error terms in a repeated measures analysis framework. Regional growth and yield models exist for ponderosa pine. However, data collection and analysis procedures differ. As a result, comparisons of growth responses that may be due to geographic variation of the species are not possible. Our goal is to present a single distance-independent diameter increment model applicable throughout the geographic range of ponderosa pine in the United States and by using only data from long-term permanent plots on sites capable of the productivity estimated by Meyer [Meyer, W.H., 1938. Yield of Even-Aged Stands of Ponderosa Pine. US Department of Agriculture Technical Bulletin 630].