土壤有机碳时空变化研究进展与展望

土壤有机碳不但是土壤肥力形成、粮食生产和土壤健康的基础,而且在全球碳平衡中起着关键的作用,因此,明晰土壤有机碳时空变化规律对于保障土壤健康和粮食安全、发挥土壤生态系统服务功能和应对气候变化等均具有重要意义。本文首先介绍了土壤有机碳时空变化的主要驱动因素和估算方法,随后分析了全球及国家等相对较大尺度上土壤有机碳时空变化研究的主要进展,最后从土壤有机碳模型结构改进、驱动数据分辨率提升、不确定性量化评估等方面综合分析了未来土壤有机碳时空变化研究需亟待解决的重要科学问题。     

近32年来新疆地区植被覆盖的时空变化

基于拟合的长时间序列数据监测新疆植被时空动态变化。结果表明,近32年来,新疆植被总体呈现增加趋势,但存在明显的阶段变化和空间差异;植被生长季NDVI值西部和西北部高,东部和东南部低;1982-2013年间新疆植被改善面积大于退化面积,绿洲农田植被覆盖区改善明显、草原区退化严重;整个研究区域的植被重心从北向南移动,天山以北的植被重心呈现西南-东北方向移动,天山以南呈现近似东西方向的移动。     

基于农作制分区的1985—2015年中国小麦生产时空变化

Comparing spatio-temporal variation characteristics of China’s wheat production, yield, sown area and yield-area-contribution in different farming zones in the past 30 years could help improving wheat planting layout and adjusting planting structure. Concentration index, rate of change, moving of gravity and resolution of yield-area-contribution were used to analyze spatio-temporal changes of China’s wheat production and yield-area-contribution based on county wheat production statistics including sown area, production and yield from 1985 to 2015. The wheat sown area decreased obviously in Northeast farming region, Northwest farming region and South farming region and increased rapidly in Huang-Huai-Hai farming region and Yangtze Plain farming region. In Huang-Huai-Hai farming region, the concentration indexes of Haihe Plain farming region, Huang-huai Plain farming region and Fenwei Basin farming region reached to 20.64%, 25.77%, and 21.65% respectively in 2015. Wheat production increased significantly by more than 48 milliontons in Huang-Huai-Hai farming region, and nearly 8 million tons Yangtze Plain farming region but decreased by more than 2.6 million tons in Northeast farming region. In Huang-Huai-Hai farming region, wheat production was concentrated in Haihe Plain farming region, Huang-huai Plain farming region and Yuxi Hill farming region. The average wheat yield continuously improved during the study period, Huang-Huai-Hai farming region and Northwest farming region had the yield increase up to 103.5 kg hm ^-2 and 92.9 kg hm ^-2 each year. Wheat yield in Yuxi Hill farming region, Fenwei Basin farming region and Haihe Plain farming region was relatively high in Huang-Huai-Hai farming region. The yield-reduced area was mainly caused by the decreasing of sown area, while the yield-area-contribution rate was different in yield-increased area. Yield-dominant counties were reduced, area-dominant counties were increased and yield-area-dominant counties were relatively steady. In production increased area, yield-dominant and yield-area-dominant counties were the main types in Huang-Huai-Hai Farming region, area-dominant and yield-area-dominant counties were the main types in Yangtze Plain farming region. Chinese wheat production was increasingly concentrated in Huang-Huai-Hai farming region which has high and rapid increase of wheat yield over the past three decades. Haihe Plain farming region, Huang-huai Plain farming region and Fenwei Basin farming region were the most concentrated areas in Huang-Huai-Hai farming region for wheat production during this period. Wheat yield and sown area jointly promoted the increase of wheat production in Huang-Huai-Hai farming region, wheat sown area was the crucial factor to increase wheat production in Yangtze Plain farming region, especially in the north of Jiangsu, Anhui province and greater part of Xinjiang.     

林权变更中时空信息分析

分析了林权变更中的时间变化特点,以及随着时间变化林地空间与属性变化情况,在此基础上对林权变更中的时空信息进行组织与管理,实现时空信息管理系统时空查询和历史回溯功能。     

胶东果园土壤电导率的时空分布特征及Kriging 估值

应用传统统计学和地统计学方法,分析了2005年4~11月期间烟台农科院苹果园土壤电导率的空间变异性,并进行了Moran’s I系数分析和Kriging估值。结果表明:土壤电导率具有明显的空间变异性,半方差函数和Moran’s I系数分析说明了4月30日、6月29日和11月16日的空间自相关范围较大,相关性较强;4月20日、7月14日和8月16日的变程偏小,空间相关性较弱。土壤电导率的均值和变异系数随时间变化总体上近似呈现出先增加后减小的趋势,在空间分布上不同时期果园表层土壤电导率分布格局差异较大,土壤电导率的破碎化比较严重。     

Spatio-temporal distribution of sergestid shrimp Acetes intermedius in the coastal waters of southwestern Taiwan

SUMMARY: Spatio-temporal variation of the sergestid shrimp Acetes intermedius in the coastal waters of southwestern Taiwan was investigated based on 1546 samples collected by 13 commercial fishing vessels from July to October 1996. Adult sergestid shrimp started a down-estuary migration with the increased river discharge associated with heavy summer rainfall. Fishing season for this species was to commence after that. In July, the shrimp stock was found on the shallow continental shelf off Tungkang and Fangshan. They mainly aggregated in Kaoping Canyon off Tungkang during August and September occurring at very high densities. In October, the shrimp returned to the coastal waters off Tungkang and Fangshan at lower densities. The heavy rainfall is a factor that triggers the shrimps to make a down-estuary migration that could reduce competition for food between adults and their offspring during the period of high river discharge. When the northeast monsoon prevailed, the sergestid shrimp moved back to the estuaries and the fishing season was terminated.     

The fallacy of the missing middle: physics →…→ fisheries

In this paper I discuss some of the shortcomings of today's marine science in response to a recently published paper by Ann Gargett (1997). Three problem areas have been identified in the field linking climate forcing and fish production: First, the yet-to-be established observational proof for a relationship between the two; Second, the strongly neglected biology of organisms at evolutionary and ecological time scales; and thrird, the disregard for spatial and temporal scales in the discussion of mechanisms and supporting data.     

Spatial and non-spatial risk factors associated with cage-level distribution of infectious salmon anaemia at three Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar L., farms in Maine, USA

The distribution of infectious salmon anaemia (ISA) was examined among 80 cages from three Atlantic salmon grow-out farms in Maine, USA that were stocked with smolts from a single hatchery. Cage-level disease was broadly defined as one or more moribund fish testing positive for infectious salmon anaemia virus (ISAV) by RT-PCR and a second confirmatory test (IFAT, culture or genotype sequence). Spatio-temporal and cage-level risks were explored using logistic regression and survival analysis. Non-spatial risk factors associated with ISA, or shortened survival time to disease, included increased predation, trucking company choice for smolt transfers, a finely-sedimented benthic substrate, and smaller average size of smolts at stocking. Univariable analysis identified the time-dependent spatial factor 'adjacency to newly infected cages' to be predictive of new infection in neighbouring cages 11-12 weeks later. However, none of the spatial factors, or their lags retained relevance in multiple-variable models. The results suggest a diffuse distribution of virus exposure throughout infected sites, with host-susceptibility factors probably influencing disease manifestation in individual cages. The narrow focus of the current study may limit application of the findings to other sites and year-classes. However, these data support the relevance of husbandry efforts to optimize fish health in regions affected by ISAV.     

吉林省乡村地域系统脆弱性演变及其成因类型划分研究

当前我国正面临乡村主导产业退化、粮食生产功能弱化等乡村发展问题,而对于乡村地域系统农业结构改善与经济、社会保障、生态等功能提升是保障国家粮食安全和区域可持续发展的根基,是实现乡村振兴战略的重要保障。本文以吉林省为例,选择县域为单元,从暴露度、敏感性和适应能力3个维度构建乡村地域系统脆弱性评价体系,综合运用因子分析法、熵值法和脆弱性综合评价模型,分析2005—2019年吉林省乡村地域系统脆弱性,利用主导因素法分析不同县域乡村脆弱性主导要素。结果表明,吉林省乡村地域敏感性呈波动上升趋势,暴露度和适应能力呈下降趋势,综合作用结果导致吉林省乡村地域系统整体脆弱性呈现波动下降趋势。吉林省乡村地域系统脆弱程度具有明显的空间聚集性,表现为“中西部低,两边高”的空间格局。根据乡村地域系统脆弱程度的主导因素,将研究区划分为7种成因类型,极度和重度脆弱程度的14个县,主要以敏感性—适应能力为主导因素类型;中度脆弱程度的23个县,主要以适应能力为主导因素类型;轻度和轻微脆弱程度的23个县,主要以适应能力和暴露度—敏感性—适应能力为主导因素类型。因此,提出应从强化水土保持、加强地质灾害治理力度、改造中低产田、加强政府支持引导等方面开展差异化调控措施,全面提升吉林省不同县域乡村地域系统抗风险能力。     

1997-2018年中国农业碳排放的时空演进与脱钩效应——基于空间和分布动态法的实证研究

在测度1997—2018年中国31个省区农业碳排放的基础上,对其时空演变特征进行分析,并利用核密度估计法和马尔科夫链法,考察中国农业碳排放分布的动态演进机制,进一步基于脱钩理论探究农业碳排放与农业经济发展之间的关系。结果表明:(1)中国农业碳排放量总体呈现波动上升趋势,农业碳排放强度不断下降,稻田为第一碳源;(2)中国农业碳排放的区域差距较大,碳排放较低的省区呈扩大趋势,碳排放较高的省区有所收缩;农业碳排放量总体上表现出东中部高、西部低的空间分布格局,而碳排放强度的空间布局则相反;(3)农业碳排放动态演进特征的分析表明,大部分省区的农业碳排放呈现增长态势,地区差距有所扩大,但“两极分化”现象逐渐消失;农业碳排放分布状态稳定性高,内部流动性低;(4)中国农业碳排放与农业经济发展之间多处于弱脱钩和强脱钩状态,强脱钩状态的省区在空间格局上逐渐替代弱脱钩状态占据绝对主导地位。