1997-2018年中国农业碳排放的时空演进与脱钩效应——基于空间和分布动态法的实证研究

在测度1997—2018年中国31个省区农业碳排放的基础上,对其时空演变特征进行分析,并利用核密度估计法和马尔科夫链法,考察中国农业碳排放分布的动态演进机制,进一步基于脱钩理论探究农业碳排放与农业经济发展之间的关系。结果表明:(1)中国农业碳排放量总体呈现波动上升趋势,农业碳排放强度不断下降,稻田为第一碳源;(2)中国农业碳排放的区域差距较大,碳排放较低的省区呈扩大趋势,碳排放较高的省区有所收缩;农业碳排放量总体上表现出东中部高、西部低的空间分布格局,而碳排放强度的空间布局则相反;(3)农业碳排放动态演进特征的分析表明,大部分省区的农业碳排放呈现增长态势,地区差距有所扩大,但“两极分化”现象逐渐消失;农业碳排放分布状态稳定性高,内部流动性低;(4)中国农业碳排放与农业经济发展之间多处于弱脱钩和强脱钩状态,强脱钩状态的省区在空间格局上逐渐替代弱脱钩状态占据绝对主导地位。

Spatio-Temporal of Agricultural Carbon Emission and Decoupling in China during 1997-2018:An Empirical Research Based on Spatial and Distribution Dynamics Method

Based on measuring agricultural carbon emission of 31 provinces in China during 1997—2018,the paper analyses the spatio-temporal characteristics of agricultural carbon emission,and uses Kernel density estimate method and Markov chain model to analyze the dynamic evolution characteristics of agricultural carbon emission.It further discusses the relationship between agricultural carbon emission and agricultural economic development based on the theory of decoupling.The results show that:(1)Agricultural carbon emission showed a fluctuating upward trend,agricultural carbon emission intensity presented a gradual decline trend,paddy fields was the largest carbon source of agricultural carbon emission.(2)The regional disparity of agricultural carbon emission is large.The spatial distribution of provinces with lower carbon emission showed a trend of expansion,while the provinces with higher carbon emission emerged downtrend.A spatial distribution pattern of high is in the eastern and central regions and the low is in the western regions,while the spatial distri-bution of carbon emission intensity is contrary.(3)The agricultural carbon emission of most provinces and regions was growing,the regional gap has expanded,but the phenomenon of“polariza-tion”gradually disappeared.The distribution of agricultural carbon emission has high stability and low internal mobility.(4)The relationship between agricultural carbon emission and agricultural economic development was mainly in the weak and strong decoupling states,and the provinces with the strong decoupling state gradually replaced the weak decoupling state and occupied the absolute dominant position in the spatial pattern.