基于农作制分区的1985—2015年中国小麦生产时空变化

Spatio-temporal changes of China’s wheat production based on division of farming system during 1985-2015

Comparing spatio-temporal variation characteristics of China’s wheat production, yield, sown area and yield-area-contribution in different farming zones in the past 30 years could help improving wheat planting layout and adjusting planting structure. Concentration index, rate of change, moving of gravity and resolution of yield-area-contribution were used to analyze spatio-temporal changes of China’s wheat production and yield-area-contribution based on county wheat production statistics including sown area, production and yield from 1985 to 2015. The wheat sown area decreased obviously in Northeast farming region, Northwest farming region and South farming region and increased rapidly in Huang-Huai-Hai farming region and Yangtze Plain farming region. In Huang-Huai-Hai farming region, the concentration indexes of Haihe Plain farming region, Huang-huai Plain farming region and Fenwei Basin farming region reached to 20.64%, 25.77%, and 21.65% respectively in 2015. Wheat production increased significantly by more than 48 milliontons in Huang-Huai-Hai farming region, and nearly 8 million tons Yangtze Plain farming region but decreased by more than 2.6 million tons in Northeast farming region. In Huang-Huai-Hai farming region, wheat production was concentrated in Haihe Plain farming region, Huang-huai Plain farming region and Yuxi Hill farming region. The average wheat yield continuously improved during the study period, Huang-Huai-Hai farming region and Northwest farming region had the yield increase up to 103.5 kg hm ^-2 and 92.9 kg hm ^-2 each year. Wheat yield in Yuxi Hill farming region, Fenwei Basin farming region and Haihe Plain farming region was relatively high in Huang-Huai-Hai farming region. The yield-reduced area was mainly caused by the decreasing of sown area, while the yield-area-contribution rate was different in yield-increased area. Yield-dominant counties were reduced, area-dominant counties were increased and yield-area-dominant counties were relatively steady. In production increased area, yield-dominant and yield-area-dominant counties were the main types in Huang-Huai-Hai Farming region, area-dominant and yield-area-dominant counties were the main types in Yangtze Plain farming region. Chinese wheat production was increasingly concentrated in Huang-Huai-Hai farming region which has high and rapid increase of wheat yield over the past three decades. Haihe Plain farming region, Huang-huai Plain farming region and Fenwei Basin farming region were the most concentrated areas in Huang-Huai-Hai farming region for wheat production during this period. Wheat yield and sown area jointly promoted the increase of wheat production in Huang-Huai-Hai farming region, wheat sown area was the crucial factor to increase wheat production in Yangtze Plain farming region, especially in the north of Jiangsu, Anhui province and greater part of Xinjiang.