模极大值法在食醋近红外光谱定量分析中的应用

以镇江香醋中还原糖定量分析为例，研究小波分析中模极大值法在建立预测模型方面的应用，对基于模极大值处理光谱信息前后的预测模型进行比较发现，该方法可以有效地消除光谱的平移误差，且具备一定的分峰效果和提取光谱信息的功能，因此预测模型的预测精度和稳定性都有较大的提高，在光谱定量分析中有广泛的应用前景。     

棉铃虫预报综合信息服务系统

根据棉花气象服务的特点 ,结合棉铃虫防治的要求 ,建成了陕西省关中棉区棉铃虫预报信息服务业务系统 ,它具有预报服务和咨询服务两大功能 ,提高了棉花气象系列化综合服务的水平。     

江淮流域地下水位变化规律及预报模型与耕作层排渍模型研究

研究分析了江淮流域地下水位年内和年际变化规律以及地下水位与初始土壤湿度、初始地下水位、温度、日照、参考作物蒸散量、蒸发和降水的关系。并用逐步回归方法建立了地下水位预报模型;用相关分析法求出给水度,并建立耕作层排渍模型。     

Wood Production Potentials of Fenno-Scandinavian Forests Under Nature-Orientated Management

In Finland, Norway and Sweden forest management is presently changing towards a more nature-orientated management. In this study the European Forest Information SCENario (EFISCEN) model was applied to determine how this change might affect the potential for wood production in the three countries. Three different management regimes, traditional, traditional with nature conservation (''conservation''), and longer rotations with nature conservation (''conservation +''), were combined with two alternative felling levels. The results show that conserving 6.1-8.8% of the older forests in the southern regions had no limiting effects on production levels, as foreseen by the European Timber Trend Studies V by the UN-ECE for Finland and Sweden. Under the conservation + scenario, maximum sustainable felling levels decreased to 84, 79 and 72% of the present levels in Finland, Norway and Sweden, respectively. Increasing the rotation length put more pressure on the older age classes and thus did not increase the average age of the forest. If the consumption of wood increases as quickly as indicated by other studies, it will be hard to fulfil that demand and at the same time conserve considerable areas of forest in the southern regions of the countries.     

北方干寒地区日光温室CO2预测模型建立与冬季试验

根据质量平衡原理，构建了适用于北方干旱、寒冷地区典型日光温室CO2动态预测模型。模型定量描述了作物光合和呼吸作用、土壤呼吸作用、CO2施肥、自然通风及闭膜后的冷风渗透对室内空气中CO2的动态影响过程。利用内蒙古农牧业科技园区的日光温室对模型进行了冬季验证。结果表明，模型能较好地预测北方干旱、寒冷地区冬季晴天、多云天气的日光温室室内空气CO2浓度的动态变化过程，且预测值和实测值之间的相对误差小于10%。     

Application of the relevance vector machine to canal flow prediction in the Sevier River Basin

This work addresses management of water for irrigation in arid regions where significant delays between the time of order and the time of delivery present major difficulties. Motivated by improvements to water management that will be facilitated by an ability to predict water demand, it employs a data-driven approach to developing canal flow prediction models using the relevance vector machine (RVM), a probabilistic kernel-based learning machine. A search is performed across model attributes including input set, kernel scale parameter and model update scheme for models providing superior prediction capability using the RVM. Models are developed for two canals in the Sevier River Basin of southern Utah for prediction horizons of up to 5 days.     

褐飞虱种群动态的研究 Ⅱ.影响田间种群数量变动的一些生物学参数

本文研究了江苏太湖单季晚稻区影响褐飞虱田间种群数量变动的有关生物学参数:卵孵化率80％,若虫存活率18.6％,成虫寿命8天,其不同日龄个体产卵量模型为E=(12.54Ⅰ—25.4)C/100,水稻抽穗后长翅型成虫迁出比例从20％逐渐增至95％。在25℃条件下,取食孕穗期水稻的褐飞虱长、短翅型成虫繁殖倍数分别为9.8倍和13.3倍。应用以上研究结果,将褐飞虱实验种群动态模型改建成田间种群动态模型,用以预测褐飞虱田间种群数量的消长。     

森林病虫害的灰色马尔柯夫预测

根据森林病虫害发生的面积具有趋势性和随机波动性特点，本文采用结合ＧＭ（１．１）模型与马尔柯夫预测技术的联合预测方法来进行森林病虫害的趋势性分析和状态预测，收到了良好的预测结果。     

建柏种子场圃发芽率预测模型研究

本文作者从全省各地收集建柏种子29份,进行生活力、实验室发芽率、发芽势、场圃发芽率测定,通过回归分析,建立场圃发芽率,实验室发芽率预测模型。     

沈阳市区2种空气质量数值模式预报结果的对比分析

建立了一个简单空气质量数值模式预报系统(SAQMS)。该系统是由中尺度数值预报模式(MM5)、Pielke中-β尺度气象模式和Eu-ler大气平流-扩散模式以及Erisman干沉降模式所组成。分别利用该系统和中科院大气物理研究所提供的高分辨率化学模式预报系统(HRCM)对沈阳地区的SO2浓度值进行了预报试验,结果表明,这2个模式的预测值都非常接近实测值,初步说明该模式系统可用于沈阳市的空气质量预报业务。