2011年-2013年滨州及其周边地区4种猪病毒性疾病的流行情况分析

通过对滨州及其周边地区2011年-2013年316个场次采集病料进行猪瘟病毒、猪繁殖与呼吸综合征病毒、猪伪狂犬病病毒与猪圆环病毒2型的检测,并对检测结果进行了统计分析,了解滨州及其周边地区上述4种疫病的流行状况。     

中国古典园林与戏曲舞台空间布景的共通性

优秀的传统文化是一个民族劳动人民智慧的结晶。随着全球经济一体化的发展，中国传统文化受到西方文化的猛烈冲击，因此以中国古典园林和戏曲艺术的研究为代表的优秀传统文化的研究对中国现代文化发展有着深远意义。笔者通过查阅国内现有的关于古典园林和戏曲舞台空间布景的研究，发现该领域的研究并不丰富。通过对二者空间布局的层次、置陈布势的常用手法和艺术性进行共通性研究，希望对古典园林和戏曲保护提供参考和指导。     

浅析田园农趣式风格艺术园圃的特色--以2016年香港花卉展览艺术园圃为例

论述2016年香港花卉展览中部分艺术园圃，结合本届花展“花荟艺萃”的主题，依据各地域的民俗风情、风貌习惯、居住环境，采集富有乡土气息的特产、动物、农具、瓜果、蔬菜和观赏植物等元素，建造千姿百态的造园样式，形成山、水、屋宇的田园农趣风格。以此突出崇尚自然，脱俗简洁的庭园的造型艺术。     

猪瘟病毒石门株在ST细胞连续传代后E0基因变异分析

为了解猪瘟病毒(CSFV)石门(Shimen)株连续传代后变异情况,根据已发表的CSFV E0基因序列(AF092448.2),设计合成引物,以在ST细胞中连续传代培养的CSFV石门株细胞毒总RNA为模板,每5代通过RT-PCR方法扩增病毒的E0基因,测定其核苷酸序列和氨基酸序列,用DNA Star软件分析比较原代、5代、10代、15代、20代、25代接毒细胞中CSFV E0基因的变异性。结果显示,接种病毒第10代的病毒E0基因在630核苷酸位点出现变异,第15代病毒在632核苷酸位点出现变异。本研究通过分子生物学方法发现CSFV Shimen株在ST细胞连续传代过程中E0基因能保持遗传的稳定性。     

Demonstrating freedom from disease using multiple complex data sources 2: case study--classical swine fever in Denmark

A method for quantitative evaluation of surveillance for disease freedom has been presented in the accompanying paper (Martin et al., 2007). This paper presents an application of the methods, using as an example surveillance for classical swine fever (CSF) in Denmark in 2005. A scenario tree model is presented for the abattoir-based serology component of the Danish CSF surveillance system, in which blood samples are collected in an ad hoc abattoir sampling process, from adult pigs originating in breeding herds in Denmark. The model incorporates effects of targeting (differential risk of seropositivity) associated with age and location (county), and disease clustering within herds. A surveillance time period of one month was used in the analysis. Records for the year 2005 were analysed, representing 25,332 samples from 3528 herds; all were negative for CSF-specific antibodies. Design prevalences of 0.1-1% of herds and 5% of animals within an infected herd were used. The estimated mean surveillance system component (SSC) sensitivities (probability that the SSC would give a positive outcome given the animals processed and that the country is infected at the design prevalences) per month were 0.18, 0.63 and 0.86, for among-herd design prevalences of 0.001, 0.005 and 0.01. The probabilities that the population was free from CSF at each of these design prevalences, after a year of accumulated negative surveillance data, were 0.91, 1.00 and 1.00. Targeting adults and herds from South Jutland was estimated to give approximately 1.9, 1.6 and 1.4 times the surveillance sensitivity of a proportionally representative sampling program for these three among-herd design prevalences.     

奎屯城市绿化落叶彩叶植物应用调查与分析

对奎屯市园林常见落叶彩叶植物种类及应用的调查研究结果表明,目前奎屯市常见落叶彩叶植物共有28种,隶属17科。文内具体介绍了落叶彩叶植物在奎屯市园林绿化中的配置方式,并就解决落叶彩叶植物应用中存在的问题提出了建议。     

Transmission of classical swine fever virus within herds during the 1997-1998 epidemic in The Netherlands

In this paper, we describe the transmission of Classical Swine Fever virus (CSF virus) within herds during the 1997–1998 epidemic in the Netherlands. In seven herds where the infection started among individually housed breeding stock, all breeding pigs had been tested for antibodies to CSF virus shortly before depopulation. Based upon these data, the transmission of CSF virus between pigs was described as exponential growth in time with a parameter r, that was estimated at 0.108 (95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.060–0.156). The accompanying per-generation transmission (expressed as the basic reproduction ratio, R₀) was estimated at 2.9. Based upon this characterisation, a calculation method was derived with which serological findings at depopulation can be used to calculate the period in which the virus was with a certain probability introduced into that breeding stock. This model was used to estimate the period when the virus had been introduced into 34 herds where the infection started in the breeding section. Of these herds, only a single contact with a herd previously infected had been traced. However, in contrast with the seven previously mentioned herds, only a sample of the breeding pigs had been tested before depopulation (as was the common procedure during the epidemic). The observed number of days between the single contact with an infected herd and the day of sampling of these 34 herds fitted well in the model. Thus, we concluded that the model and transmission parameter was in agreement with the transmission between breeding pigs in these herds.

Because of the limited sample size and because it was usually unknown in which specific pen the infection started, we were unable to estimate transmission parameters for weaned piglets and finishing pigs from the data collected during the epidemic. However, from the results of controlled experiments in which R₀ was estimated as 81 between weaned piglets and 14 between heavy finishing pigs (Laevens et al., 1998a. Vet. Quart. 20, 41–45; Laevens et al., 1999. Ph.D. Thesis), we constructed a simple model to describe the transmission of CSF virus in compartments (rooms) housing finishing pigs and weaned piglets. From the number of pens per compartment, the number of pigs per pen, the numbers of pigs tested for antibodies to CSF virus and the distribution of the seropositive pigs in the compartment, this model gives again a period in which the virus most probably entered the herd. Using the findings in 41 herds where the infection started in the section of the finishers or weaned piglets of the age of 8 weeks or older, and of which only a single contact with a herd previously infected was known, there was no reason to reject the model. Thus, we concluded that the transmission between weaned piglets and finishing pigs during the epidemic was not significantly different from the transmission observed in the experiments.     

Quantification of the transmission of classical swine fever virus between herds during the 1997-1998 epidemic in The Netherlands

In this study, we describe a method to quantify the transmission of Classical Swine Fever Virus (CSFV) between herds from data collected during the 1997–1998 epidemic in the Netherlands. From the contacts between infected herds and the serological findings shortly before depopulation, we estimated the week of virus introduction and the length of the period over which the herd emitted virus for each CSFV-infected herd. From these data, we estimated the infection-rate parameter β (the average number of herds infected by one infectious herd during one week) and the herd reproduction ratio, R_h (the average total number of secondary outbreaks caused by one infectious herd, i.e. in its entire infectious period), using a SIR-model for different sets of CSF control measures. When R_h > 1, an epidemic continues to grow. On the other hand, when R_h < 1 an epidemic will fade out.

During the phase before the first outbreak was diagnosed and no specific measures had been implemented, β was estimated at 1.09 and R_h at 6.8. In the subsequent phase infected herds were depopulated, movement restrictions were implemented, infected herds were traced forward and backward and the herds in the protection and surveillance zones were clinically inspected by the veterinary authorities (regional screening). This set of measures significantly reduced β to 0.38. However, R_h was 1.3 and thus still >1. Consequently, the number of outbreaks continued to grow. After a number of additional measures were implemented, the value of R_h was reduced to 0.5 and the epidemic came to an end. These measures included pre-emptive slaughter of herds that had been in contact with infected herds or were located near an infected herd, increased hygienic procedures, replacement of transports of pigs for welfare reasons by killing of young piglets and a breeding ban, and regional screening for CSF-infected herds by local veterinary practitioners.     

The 1997-1998 classical swine fever epidemic in The Netherlands--a survival analysis

The aim of this analysis was to characterise the temporal pattern of infection during the 1997/98 classical swine fever (CSF) epidemic in The Netherlands and hence identify and quantify risk factors for infection in different enterprise types and areas. Survival analysis and Cox proportional hazards regression were used to describe the epidemic. Substantial differences in temporal survival patterns (herd breakdown rate) were found between areas where different control policies operated. Factors with a significant influence on the infection hazard of individual herds included: sow numbers as a percentage of total sows and fatteners (HR = 3.38 for mixed herds (0.1–60% sows) vs. fattening herds (0% sows) and HR = 2.74 for breeding herds (60–100% sows) vs. fattening herds), the number of ‘transport contacts per month’ (>0.3 vs. <0.3; HR = 4.11), pig density (pigs/km²) in the area (HR_{1000 pigs} 1.48) and herd size (HR_{100 pigs} = 1.01).

Pre-emptive slaughter in an area appeared to be associated with lower subsequent disease levels. Higher frequency of transport contacts for welfare slaughter during the epidemic, however, well regulated and controlled, was associated with a substantially higher risk of becoming infected. The positive association of a higher pig density with CSF indicates the potential importance of local spread as a factor in disease transmission and emphasizes that dilution of the pig population can contribute to reduction in CSF occurrence. This analysis suggests however, that if pre-emptive slaughter can promptly be applied effectively in an area after initial diagnosis, pig density is then not a significant factor. Mixed and breeding herds had a higher probability of becoming infected than fattening herds, possibly due to different types and frequencies of inter-herd contacts. These contacts continue to some extent during the epidemic, despite the standstill of animal movements.     

Spatial and stochastic simulation to evaluate the impact of events and control measures on the 1997-1998 classical swine fever epidemic in The Netherlands. II. Comparison of control strategies

Using the spatial, temporal and stochastic simulation model InterCSF, several alternative pre-emptive slaughter strategies that could have been applied in the Dutch Classical Swine Fever (CSF) epidemic of 1997–1998 were evaluated. Furthermore, effects of changes in some disease-spread and disease-control parameters were studied. InterCSF simulates the spread of CSF between farms through local spread and contacts (animals, transport and persons). Disease spread is affected by control measures implemented through different mechanisms (e.g. depopulation of infected farms, pre-emptive slaughter, movement control). The starting point for the evaluation of strategies was a simulated basic scenario, which mimicked the real epidemic. Strategies were compared using epidemiological as well as economic results. Economic results were generated by a separate model (EpiLoss) that calculated the direct losses and consequential losses for farmers and related industries. The comparison of the different alternatives to the basic scenario led to some general conclusions on the Dutch CSF-epidemic. Pre-emptive slaughter seemed to be an effective strategy to reduce the size of an epidemic, if started at an early stage. Economically, pre-emptive slaughter was not as expensive as expected; the resulting smaller size of the epidemic, combined with less welfare slaughter, led to much lower overall losses. Furthermore, although large movement control areas seemed effective in reducing the size of the epidemic, the total losses were relatively high because of subsequent welfare slaughter. If infection probabilities could be reduced, for example by improved biosecurity, the resulting epidemics would be much smaller.