Age estimation of different tree species using a special kind of an electrically recording resistance drill

The determination of tree age is an important issue for urban green planning, forestry and dendrology; finding non-destructive and quasi-non-destructive methods for this purpose is of great theoretical and practical importance. The resistance drilling method is quasi-non-destructive because the average diameter of an opening that remains after drilling does not exceed 3 mm. Do electrically recording resistance drills allow precise assessment of tree age? The aim of this study is to assess the accuracy of determining the number of tree rings based on an examination of this special kind of drilling resistance profiles for three tree species, the pine Pinus sylvestris L., the oak Quercus robur L., and the birch Betula pendula ROTH. In 2015 and 2016, 15 pine trees, 15 oak trees, and 15 birch trees were randomly selected. For each studied tree, a measurement was conducted using the electrically recording resistance drill IML-Resi E400 with a flat-tipped 1.5/3 mm steel needle (research sample), and an increment core was taken (reference sample). The drill used was not a real Resistograph^®. The analysis of the E400-profiles underestimated the number of tree rings; the mean bias error (MBE) values were –6.5, –2.5, and –6.0 years for pine, oak, and birch, respectively. The proportion of investigated trees with less than five years difference between the research and reference samples varied from 38.4 (birch) to 66.7 (oak) percent. The accuracy of tree age determination was lowest for birch and highest for oak. The binomial generalised linear model (GLM) revealed that the most accurate tree age assessments were obtained from tree rings wider than 2 mm. The measurements clearly showed that the electrically recording resistance drill IML-Resi E400 enables a quick, although approximate, tree age assessment. Future research should concentrate on electronically regulating and recording drills, providing a higher spatial and signal resolution, and a stronger correlation to wood density.     

农业信息：传统与现代的耦合

近年来，国家投资建设大量信息基础设施，以保证农业信息能更好的被农户采用。而现实中，农户并不通过网络、电视和报刊等现代信息手段获得农业信息，相反，基于地缘和血缘的熟人网络和以盈利为目的的商人成了农业信息传播的主要媒介。在这种传播方式下，农户的利益常遭侵害，农业科技难以广泛有效的传播，甚至一些假信息让农户失去了对“科技”的信赖。针对目前存在的种种问题，笔者兼顾现实与未来，提出了相关对策。     

七星瓢虫幼虫空间分布型及抽样技术研究

采用颍次分布X~2检验、Iwao平均拥挤度m~*=a+βx和Taylor幂法则S~2=am~b等8种方法,分析了七块麦田中七星瓢虫幼虫的空间分布型,认为其分布型为负二项分布,且聚集的原因是由于个体之间存在着相互吸引,并确定了代表性较强的棋盘式抽样技术,最佳抽样数量为:Q=28.7088/+0.7552。     

基于果实相关性状的桃品种初级核心种质取样策略研究

以国家种质资源圃(北京)编目的558份桃品种的18个形态学和农艺学性状为基本数据,研究了桃品种初级核心种质构建的取样策略,包括总体取样比例的确定及取样方案的选择,以获得最佳的初级核心种质。本试验共设10%～90%9个总体取样比例;取样方案研究包括分组原则和组内取样比例的确定。结果表明,桃初级核心种质的适宜总体取样比例为10%;按品种类群分组结合多样性比例取样为构建桃初级核心种质的最佳取样方案;利用此取样策略从558份桃品种中提取56份作为核心样本,对其代表性进行检测表明所构建的初级核心种质能够很好地代表桃原始种质的遗传多样性。     

A conceptual model of farmers' decision-making process for nitrogen fertilization and irrigation of durum wheat

With a 2 millions of tons production, France is the second country in the European Union to produce durum wheat. Durum wheat production requires high grain nitrogen concentration. Irrigation and nitrogen fertilization must be managed simultaneously to maximize grain yield and also avoid low protein concentration and environmental impacts. To help advisors and farmers to better manage together these two agricultural operations and to develop innovative managements, developing a biodecisional model is an interesting possibility. However, knowledge is still missing on how farmers already managed these operations and how these two operations are linked. We developed the conceptual model for the decision part of this computer model. We performed a survey of 28 farmers conducted over the five French production areas investigating a diversity of growing conditions to identify the set of possible constraints and farmers' decision rules. To analyze the survey, we first used a general inductive approach on individual cases and then built a conceptual model of the decision with a bottom-up approach. We identified four decision sequences for fertilization (N splitting, choice of N fertilizer, rate of application, fertilization triggering) and five for irrigation (irrigation period, anticipated number of irrigation cycles, irrigation cycles organization, irrigation triggering and irrigation cycle specificities). For each operation, the first three decision sequences refer to strategic decisions. The other decision sequences refer to tactical decisions. Coupling this model with a crop model could provide guidelines for managing durum wheat in the current climatic and economic changing context.     

Using indicators to assess the environmental impacts of wine growing activity: The INDIGO® method

Environmental assessment methods are needed by agronomists working on the enhancement of cropping systems to meet the demand for more sustainable farming practices. A growing number of operational methods based on a set of indicators have been designed, more for arable crops and livestock than for perennial crops like viticulture. Among them, the INDIGO^® method, originally developed for arable crops, offers a compromise between feasibility and predictive quality. Here we present a modified and expanded version of INDIGO^® for viticulture. The development of new indicators specific to viticulture and the adaptation of existing ones followed a five step approach: (i) preliminary definition of the objectives and identification of the end-users, (ii) construction of the indicator, (iii) selection of a reference value, (iv) sensitivity analysis and (v) validation. Stakeholders from professional institutions and winegrower organizations were closely associated with step (i) to define the framework and step (ii) to supply technical databases. We designed INDIGO^® indicators with all available scientific and expert knowledge which was aggregated into expert systems associating fuzzy subsets or, when possible, quantitative equations.Four indicators; pesticides, nitrogen, energy and soil organic matter, were directly adapted from the initial INDIGO^® method, whereas soil cover and frost protection management were new indicators. Potentialities of their use are highlighted by examples of implementation on different scales and for various purposes.     

Four years validation of decision support optimising herbicide dose in cereals under Spanish conditions

The Danish decision support system Crop Protection Online (CPO) optimises herbicide weed control. CPO recommends specific herbicide solutions to achieve a required level of control. The aim is to apply herbicides as little as possible but as much as necessary. CPOWeeds is a version of CPO adjusted to conditions in North-eastern Spain. The predicted efficacies and the yield obtained with CPOWeeds were validated in winter cereal field trials from 2010 to 2013. All CPOWeeds treatments were related to the efficacies obtained with standard herbicide treatments decided upon by local advisors. The predictions from CPOWeeds were compared to the actually achieved efficacies in the field trials for the nine weed species at different developmental stages and for 84.2% of the comparisons the obtained efficacies were equal to or higher than predicted. The average difference between predicted and observed efficacies was 2.35 percentage points. Yield was measured in three trials and the recommendations from CPOWeeds were maintaining yield. There were two situations where CPOWeeds were performing suboptimal. One is in the early weed growth stages, as the model is not yet prepared to account for water stress on root action herbicides applied at 10-11 BBCH. The second situation was in fields with a prior unidentified population of resistant Alopecurus myosuroides. For key species in winter cereals in Spain, such as Avena sterilis, Lolium rigidum and Papaver rhoeas, CPOWeeds achieved a satisfactory control level. It was concluded that the use of CPOWeeds allowed optimisation of the herbicide application with a very high robustness. The recommendations were satisfactorily for the conditions of the Northeast of Spain and have the potential to decrease the amount of applied herbicides by at least 30%. Therefore, it can be an important tool in Integrated Weed Management.     

未确知有理数在农业投资方案决策中的应用

利用未确知有理数方法进行农业投资方案决策,在理论上可行,所得结果是可信的。该方法可用于多层次决策,步骤简单,有效。     

THE OPTIMAL DECISTON OF ECONOMICAL DEVELOPMENT BY MARKOVIAN DECISION PROGRAMMING

This paper studies the tactics choice and its improvement in the development of economy by means of Markovian Decision Programming. An optimal decision and the maximum expected revenue can be obtained. The . paper also presents the procedures and formulas of numerical evaluation.