Measuring trail users’ perception of crowding in a peri-urban nature park: A best-worst scaling experiment

This paper evaluates the perception of crowding, its determinants and relationship with trail users’ experience in a peri-urban nature park. Existing crowding surveys rely heavily on a single-item 9-point crowding scale which was originally developed for backcountry areas. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to test the validity and reliability of this measure in detecting crowding issues and formulating visitor capacity limits. Low validity and reliability raised concerns about the applicability of this scale in similar frontcountry areas. Inability of this simple crowding measure to detect a visitor threshold brings to the fore its another important limitation – ignorance of the complexity of crowding phenomenon. The perception of crowding varies with various social, psychological and situational factors, and a best-worst scaling (BWS) experiment was designed to simultaneously evaluate different aspects of crowding in the Medvednica Nature Park, a peri-urban nature park near Zagreb, Croatia. The findings of BWS experiment revealed that occupancy of mountain huts, number of other hikers on the trail and amount of litter along the trail on average contributed most to the trail users’ sense of crowding. A latent class analysis identified a large heterogeneity in the perception of crowding; while one group of trail users (63%) was more disturbed by the direct social impacts, the others (37%) were more disturbed by the secondary impacts of other visitors, especially by the negative externalities from road traffic in the park. Older visitors had a greater tendency to primarily associate crowding with the environmental conditions. A higher impact of trail use level in the perception of crowding, younger age and more frequent use were associated with a more negative evaluation of crowding. The park management should closely monitor road traffic in the park and visitor activity on highly used trails, especially on those popular among younger trail users.     

基于扩散理论的华北春玉米生理成熟后籽粒脱水过程分析

玉米机收籽粒可以显著提高玉米的生产效率,是玉米生产的发展方向。生理成熟后的籽粒含水率是决定机收质量的关键,受品种、密度和气候等多种因素影响。准确估算生理成熟后玉米籽粒含水率,进而分析其主要影响因素,最终确定玉米收获时间和筛选适宜机收的品种,对玉米主产区华北的春玉米籽粒机收发展具有重要意义。因此,于2017年和2018年在河北省泊头、南大港、玉田和山西榆次进行了两年田间春玉米试验,每年设置7个共性品种,每个品种3个密度,对生理成熟后籽粒含水率、品种性状、气象和管理要素进行了监测,并利用基于扩散理论考虑空气温湿度的脱水模型对籽粒含水率进行了模拟,进而计算脱水曲线下的面积(AUDDC),用以筛选脱水优异的玉米品种。结果表明,基于扩散理论的籽粒脱水模型对玉米生理成熟后籽粒含水率的模拟效果较好;年份、地点和品种对生理成熟时籽粒含水率(M_0)和水分扩散速率(k)具有显著影响,密度对脱水参数影响不显著。逐步线性回归分析得到灌浆期参考作物蒸发蒸腾量(ET_0)、最高气温和灌水量对M_0具有显著的正效应,生理成熟后30 d内ET0和灌浆中后期降雨对k具有显著的正效应,全生育期降雨对k具有显著的负效应。品种性状中对M_0影响最大的为苞叶层数(正效应),对k影响最大的为叶片数(负效应)。通过模型计算得到,生理成熟后10d华北地区春玉米籽粒含水率可以下降到28%,籽粒含水率下降到25%的概率为50%。由模型计算得到各品种生理成熟后10 d内的AUDDC,与AUDDC平均值比较发现‘京农科728’‘张1453’‘华农887’‘广德5’和‘金科玉3306’为脱水表现优异的品种。     

Performance and uncertainty analysis of a short-term climate reconstruction based on multi-source data in the Tianshan Mountains region,China

Short-term climate reconstruction, i.e., the reproduction of short-term(several decades) historical climatic time series based on the relationship between observed data and available longer-term reference data in a certain area, can extend the length of climatic time series and offset the shortage of observations. This can be used to assess regional climate change over a much longer time scale. Based on monthly grid climate data from a Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 5(CMIP5) dataset for the period of 1850–2000, the Climatic Research Unit(CRU) dataset for the period of 1901–2000 and the observed data from 53 meteorological stations located in the Tianshan Mountains region(TMR) of China during the period of 1961–2011, we calibrated and validated monthly average temperature(MAT) and monthly accumulated precipitation(MAP) in the TMR using the delta, physical scaling(SP) and artificial neural network(ANN) methods. Performance and uncertainty during the calibration(1971–1999) and verification(1961–1970) periods were assessed and compared using traditional performance indices and a revised set pair analysis(RSPA) method. The calibration and verification processes were subjected to various sources of uncertainty due to the influence of different reconstructed variables, different data sources, and/or different methods used. According to traditional performance indices, both the CRU and CMIP5 datasets resulted in satisfactory calibrated and verified MAT time series at 53 meteorological stations and MAP time series at 20 meteorological stations using the delta and SP methods for the period of 1961–1999. However, the results differed from those obtained by the RSPA method. This showed that the CRU dataset produced a low degree of uncertainty(positive connection degree) during the calibration and verification of MAT using the delta and SP methods compared to the CMIP5 dataset. Overall, the calibrated and verified MAP had a high degree of uncertainty(negative connection degree) regardless of the dataset or reconstruction method used. Therefore, the reconstructed time series of MAT for the period of 1850(or 1901)–1960 based on the CRU and CMIP5 datasets using the delta and SP methods could be used for further study. The results of this study will be useful for short-term(several decades) regional climate reconstruction and longer-term(100 a or more) assessments of regional climate change.     

Reinvestigation of the scaling law of the windblown sand launch velocity with a wind tunnel experiment

Windblown sand transport is a leading factor in the geophysical evolution of arid and semi-arid regions. The evolution speed is usually indicated by the sand transport rate that is a function of launch velocity of sand particle, whichhasbeen investigated by the experimental measurement and numerical simulation. However, the obtained results in literatures are inconsistent. Some researchers have discovered a relation between average launch velocity and wind shear velocity, while some other researchers have suggested that average launch velocity is independent of wind shear velocity. The inconsistence of launch velocity leads to a controversy in the scaling law of the sand transport rate in the windblown case. On the contrary, in subaqueous case, the scaling law of the sand transport rate has been widely accepted as a cubic function of fluid shear velocity. In order to explain the debates surrounding the windblown case and the difference between windblown and subaquatic cases, this study reinvestigates the scaling law of the vertical launch velocity of windblown transported sand particles by using a dimensional analysis in consideration of the compatibility of the characteristic time of sand particle motion and that of air flow. Then a wind tunnel experiment is conducted to confirm the revisited scaling law, where the sand particle motion pictures are recorded by a high-speed camera and then the launch velocity is solved by the particle tracking velocimetry. By incorporating the results of dimensional analysis and wind tunnel experiment, it can be concluded that, the ratio of saltonsnumber to reptonsnumberdetermines the scaling law of sand particle launch velocity and that of sand transport rate, and using this ratio is able to explain the discrepancies among the classical models of steady sand transport. Moreover, the resulting scaling law can explain the sand sieving phenomenon: a greater fraction of large grains is observed as the distance to the wind tunnel entrance becomes larger.     

TRMM降水数据在长江流域的降尺度分析与校正

在充分考虑2001−2019年TRMM 3B43降水量数据在长江流域适用性的基础上，基于地理加权回归模型（GWR），结合归一化植被指数（NDVI）、增强型植被指数（EVI）、高程、坡度、坡向数据，选取不同组合对19a内TRMM降水量数据进行降尺度，并对优选的降尺度数据分别进行GDA、GRA校正，最后在年、季、月尺度下进行精度评价与结果分析。结果表明：（1）降尺度数据与站点实测数据的R²、BIAS、RMSE满足精度要求的同时，空间分辨率由0.25°提高至1km，且TRMMNDVI数据精度优于TRMMEVI数据。（2）GDA校正结果优于GRA校正结果，且数据稳定性更好，更适于长江流域TRMM数据校正。（3）数据与站点实测数据R²在年（0.91～0.986）、季（0.704～0.88）、月（0.625～0.89）尺度上均有较高精度，细节特征较TRMM数据表现更好。（4）降水量越大的月份降尺度及校正效果越好。降尺度及校正后的TRMM数据能更好地反映长江流域真实降水信息，为农业生产、水资源优化配置、防洪减灾等提供可靠的数据支持。     

Tooth brushing inhibits oral bacteria in dogs

In this study, scaling, polishing and daily tooth brushing were performed in 20 beagle dogs, and the number of oral bacteria was determined using a bacterial counter. The dogs were randomized into the scaling (S), scaling + polishing (SP), scaling + tooth daily brushing (SB) and scaling + polishing + tooth daily brushing (SPB) groups. Samples were collected from the buccal surface of the maxillary fourth premolars of the dogs immediately after scaling and every week thereafter from weeks 1 to 8. Throughout the study, the number of bacteria was significantly lower in the SB and SPB groups compared with the S group. The findings suggest that daily tooth brushing inhibited oral bacterial growth in the dogs.     

应用热扩散式探针法对南方红壤丘陵区湿地松人工林耗水量的研究

运用Granier热扩散式探针法对湿地松(Pinus elliottii)树干液流密度进行长期连续测定,并对其周围多个气象要素和土壤要素进行同步测定。湿地松生长旺季不同月份晴天液流密度日变化规律基本一致,但液流启动、到达峰值的时间以及开始升高、开始下降的时间间隔存在差异。样木解析结果表明,处于低龄期的湿地松,整个木质部都可看作边材,边材面积和胸径可用二次函数很好地拟合。方差分析结果表明:不同胸径湿地松树干液流密度不存在显著性差异,与胸径无紧密关系。回归分析结果表明:湿地松日累计液流量与边材面积呈显著的线性相关关系,相关关系的判定系数达0.99。另外,单位边材面积日累计液流量与入选各气象因素的相关性显著,相关程度大小顺序为光合有效辐射>冠层相对湿度>冠层温度。结合边材面积-胸径回归方程和样木胸径调查资料,分别采用2种方法推算整个标准地的耗水量。经比较,2种方法所得结果差别不大,各自适用于一定的范围。     

盗伐、滥伐林木材积测定(之一)

盗伐、滥伐林木材积涉及案件的性质和处罚。用1株伐倒木资料，分别立木状态、伐倒木状态计算其材积。为保证材积测定准确，当盗伐、滥伐林木呈伐倒木状态，且数量少时，宜采用中央断面区分求积式、牛顿区分求积式或二元材积表测定材积。     

强化木材检验管理是提高经济效益的重要手段

本阐述了森工采运企业强化木材检验工作管理的重要性和必要性，尤其是在国家实施“天保”工程中，企业求发展，就必须在木材检验方面入手，从队伍建设、人员素质提高及经济制约责任等抓起，从而使森工企业走向可持续发展之路。