厄尔尼诺——南方涛动(ENSO)的古气候研究评述

 通过对树木年轮、冰核、珊瑚等的测定和分析获得的古气候记录研究成果,评述了ENSO的演变规律及强度变化特征,指明了ENSO是可查证记录以来就己存在的现象。     

ENSO与中西太平洋金枪鱼围网资源丰度及其渔场变动的关系

中西太平洋是世界金枪鱼围网的重要作业渔场之一,主要捕捞鲣鱼（Katsuwonus pelamis）、黄鳍金枪鱼（Thunnus albacares）和大眼金枪鱼（Thunnus obesus）等.     

Using seasonal climate forecasts to improve maize production decision support in Zimbabwe

Maize production in marginal tropical regions is at great risk due to rainfall variability and climate change. Climate change is set to increase the variability and uncertainty of inter-annual rainfall. Farmers who depend on rainfed maize production for their livelihoods would therefore benefit from improved climate based forecasting of production likelihood. In this study we developed a simple maize production decision support tool for Masvingo by using seasonal climate forecasts and a crop model to forecast maize yields likelihood prior to the season. We follow up on earlier studies carried out in Zimbabwe which show that the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can be used to forecast rainfall and maize yields in Zimbabwe. An ENSO based seasonal climate analysis tool (RAINMAN) was used to produce probabilistic monthly climate forecasts for Masvingo corresponding to the phases of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). The climate forecasts were used to run a crop model (AquaCrop) for a variety of scenarios relevant to maize production (monthly rainfall, cultivar selection, planting date, and fertility level). The results of the simulations were similar to those observed by Phillips et al. (1997) and formed the basis for the development of an operational decision support tool. Simulated maize yields varied from 1.2 t/ha to 5.8 t/ha. The simulated yields were higher than expected average yields in a marginal region like Masvingo especially under small holder farming. The work suggested that optimal use of forecasts may lead to improved maize production in Masvingo. The study set a platform for the development of operational climate based maize production decision support tools in Zimbabwe.     

Qualitative modelling for the development of a sustainable management strategy for the Peruvian scallop Argopecten purpuratus (Lamarck 1819)

• 1. This study is the first attempt using Levins's Theory (loop analysis) in order to develop a sustainable management for the scallop, Argopecten purpuratus, fishery in Peru during El Niño‐Southern Oscillation events (ENSO) and upwelling conditions. Based on this theoretical framework, it was possible to estimate the local stability for each of these model systems and to follow the qualitative changes of the variables in response to external factors.
• 2. Based on our results, we suggest the following management policies to be implemented: (1) during ENSO events the size at the first capture of the scallops should be >70 mm and (2) the increase in the number of fishermen during ENSO events must be prevented. Both measures increase the sustainability of fishery under ENSO and upwelling conditions. The ecological models predict that during ENSO and upwelling events, any management strategy to increase the recruitment of the scallop would not have a positive impact on the adult stock.
• 3. Finally, we suggest that more efforts must be focused on the development of extended eco‐social models, which incorporate further social and economic variables, increasing realism of the abstractions for this fishery activity.

Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

东北近60年盛夏降水特征及其与不同类型厄尔尼诺的联系

为了探讨东北地区盛夏降水的特征及其与不同ENSO的联系,利用1961—2019年国家气象信息中心整编的东北地区204个站日降水资料、NCEP/NCAR逐月再分析资料和国家气候中心ENSO监测结果进行研究分析。结果表明:(1)盛夏降水20世纪90年代到21世纪初进入枯水期,21世纪10年代降水有所增加。1961—2019年降水以5.386 mm/10 a的速率减少,其主要原因是小雨和中雨减少,且近年来降水减少速率变缓;(2)空间上,降水整体呈减少趋势。小雨呈减少趋势,辽宁降水减少最显著,50个站均呈下降趋势,37个站通过显著性检验。中雨和大雨均呈减少趋势,但不显著。暴雨有超过60%的站呈上升趋势,黑龙江以上升趋势为主;(3)厄尔尼诺次年盛夏,中部型(CP型)降水量整体多于东部型(EP型)。EP型辽宁降水偏多,吉林呈西北—东南降水反相分布,内蒙古降水整体偏多,黑龙江整体偏少,且局部地区显著偏少。CP型辽宁降水亦偏多,且多于EP型,吉林为南北反相分布,黑龙江整体偏多,内蒙古整体偏少,且局部显著偏少。由此可以得出,厄尔尼诺可以作为次年东北地区盛夏降水的一个预测因子。     

Maize ethanol feedstock production and net energy value as affected by climate variability and crop management practices

Ethanol from various plant resources, especially maize, is increasingly being used as a substitute for fossil fuels. The production potential of ethanol from maize varies with weather and climatic conditions and crop management practices. The merits and prospects of ethanol production have been evaluated based on its impact on greenhouse gas emissions, economic viability and national energy security. The net energy value (NEV), i.e. the output energy after all non-renewable energy inputs have been accounted for, is a measure of energy gain. At the same time, the NEV can be an indicator for the long-term sustainability of bio-ethanol production, regardless of other conditions e.g. climate change scenarios, global trade restrictions, or local variability in natural resources such as water availability. Crop management practices directly affect the NEV of ethanol. Moreover, both crop management practices and climate variability affect the NEV through the grain yield. The objective of this study was to assess the impact of crop management practices and climate variability on grain yield of maize for ethanol production and ethanol NEV for conditions that represent the southeastern USA. Maize grain yield was simulated with the dynamic crop growth model CSM–CERES–Maize and ethanol NEV was calculated using the simulated yield levels and crop management practices. The simulations were conducted for conditions representing Mitchell County, Georgia, USA, using weather data from 1939 to 2006 and local soil profile information. The impact of irrigation, nitrogen fertilizer, planting date and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases were determined for the maize cultivars DeKalb DKC 61-72 (RR2), Pioneer 31D58 and Pioneer 31G98. Crop management practices and ENSO phase had a significant impact on ethanol feedstock production and NEV. The NEV of ethanol produced from irrigated maize was more than two times higher and varied less than the NEV of ethanol from rainfed maize. NEV of ethanol produced from maize grown during La Niña years was significantly higher than maize grown during El Niño years, both under rainfed and irrigated conditions. This study showed the importance of crop management practices and climate variability on ethanol feedstock productivity and long-term energy sustainability as assessed by the NEV. We discuss methods of implementing the findings of this study in practical farming e.g. through market mechanisms and governmental initiatives.     

江苏省夏季降水异常和成因分析

利用1961～2006年江苏省59个台站的月降水量资料,将江苏省夏季降水进行EOF分析。通过研究降水异常的时空分布的演变特征,对江苏省夏季典型旱涝年进行分类,并初步探讨了夏季降水异常类型的成因。结果表明,46年来江苏地区夏季降水有比较明显的年代际变化,20世纪80年代开始发生局地旱涝的机率增加;该地区降水异常可以分为一致偏多型、一致偏少型、北多南少型和北少南多型4种类型,并且通过分析500和850 hPa环流形势、副热带高压和ENSO事件的特征,初步探讨了各类型发生的可能成因。     

ENSO对辽宁夏季降水预测指示意义的研究

根据1961～2009年辽宁省内53个气象站的夏季降水资料和同一时期的哈德莱中心的海表面温度资料,研究了辽宁省夏季降水与相对应的前一年秋季Nino3区海表面温度关系的年代际变化。结果表明,近30年来两者之间的相关性已经显著减弱。在1961～1974年这个时段,根据前一年秋季Nino3区海表面温度距平预测夏季降水,符号准确率在66.7%以上的站数达到25站之多,但在1980～2009年这个时段,达到相同准确率的站数却只有5站。在前一个研究时段,25个站点呈现块状分布的特征,主要位于辽宁的中部和东北部地区,但后一个研究时段内的5站分布呈现点状特征。在20世纪70年代中后期之前,当前一年秋季赤道中东太平洋海温偏高时,辽宁省夏季降水容易偏多;反之,当前一年秋季赤道中东太平洋海温偏低时,辽宁省夏季降水容易偏少。但自从20世纪80年代至今,上面描述的指示关系难以稳定成立。     

1961—2012年山东省气候变化特征及其与ENSO的关系

为探究山东省气温和降水的时空变化特征及其对ENSO事件的响应,基于1961—2012年山东省18个气象站点的气温、降水数据与表征ENSO的海温距平和南方涛动指数,通过时序变化与突变检验、空间插值及相关性分析等方法,研究山东省气候变化的时空特征以及其与ENSO的关系。结果表明：（1）1961—2012年山东省年、季节气温均呈明显的波动上升趋势,并于1988年发生增温突变,其中年均温以0.025℃/a的速率递增,冬季气温以0.04℃/a的速率成为增温趋势最为明显的季节。年、季节降水量呈波动减少趋势,年降水量以-1.60 mm/a的速率递减,夏季降水减幅最大,其速率达到-1.07 mm/a。此外,气温增幅和降水量减幅均表现出沿海大于内陆、平原大于山区的特点。（2）ENSO强度对山东省气温变化影响并不显著,而与其降水量变化显著负相关,其中,中、强等级的ENSO事件对年降水量的作用更明显。（3）ENSO强度对气温的影响大致呈由西北向东南递减的规律,对降水的影响则由沿海向内陆递减,并受地形影响,体现出非地带性特点。