PDO和ENSO与我国华北地区夏季降水的关系分析

统计了不同太平洋年代际振荡背景下ENSO发生的频率、强度等特征,进而分析了PDO对ENSO的调制作用;计算了华北地区赤峰、北京等25个站作为华北地区代表站的夏季降水距平,分析得到两者与降水的关系,结果表明:(1)PDO的振荡周期为年代际尺度,为ENSO提供气候背景;(2)我国华北地区夏季降水存在年代际变化,与PDO指数大致呈负相关;(3)暖ENSO年我国华北地区夏季降水偏少,冷ENSO年则偏多。ENSO对我国华北地区夏季降水的影响受到PDO的制约;该研究可以更好地对我国华北地区夏季降水进行短期预测,可预测2016年我国华北地区夏季降水将偏少。     

PDO和ENSO与我国华北地区夏季降水的关系分析

统计了不同太平洋年代际振荡背景下ENSO发生的频率、强度等特征,进而分析了PDO对ENSO的调制作用;计算了华北地区赤峰、北京等25个站作为华北地区代表站的夏季降水距平,分析得到两者与降水的关系,结果表明:(1)PDO的振荡周期为年代际尺度,为ENSO提供气候背景;(2)我国华北地区夏季降水存在年代际变化,与PDO指数大致呈负相关;(3)暖ENSO年我国华北地区夏季降水偏少,冷ENSO年则偏多。ENSO对我国华北地区夏季降水的影响受到PDO的制约;该研究可以更好地对我国华北地区夏季降水进行短期预测,可预测2016年我国华北地区夏季降水将偏少。     

ENSO Modoki对我国冬季气候变化的影响

本文从气候、气温、降水3个方面总结了ENSO Modoki对我国冬季气候的影响,以期为相关学者开展ENSO Modoki对我国冬季气候影响的研究提供参考。     

厄尔尼诺事件对株洲市降水的影响

厄尔尼诺是影响全球的大尺度气候现象,对全世界的气候都有一定的影响。为探索厄尔尼诺事件对株洲市降水量的影响,该研究获取了株洲市1986~2015年近30年序列多个基本雨量站逐月降水量整编资料,并分别计算了每年汛期和秋冬季的降水量,并与ENSO事件进行了对比分析。结果表明:近30年的汛期强降水7次中有5次与ENSO事件有关,ENSO事件引起的强降水都会给次年的汛期带来降水减少;与此同时,ENSO事件对秋冬季的降水有明显的影响,ENSO事件结束的当年都会引起秋冬季降水的减少。该研究的结果为株洲市在汛期强降水和干旱等的雨水情的预报提供了决策依据。     

文登区气候变化与厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜的关系

根据1961-2010年年以来50年文登区气候资料分析,对年降水量和年平均气温资料与厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜(ENSO)事件之间的关系进行统计分析,初步揭示了ENSO事件对文登区气候的影响。结果表明:1961-2010年间,ENSO事件呈现起伏波动,文登区年降水量呈现下降趋势,厄尔尼诺年文登区降水减少,拉尼娜年降水增多;文登区年降水量呈上升趋势,厄尔尼诺年文登区温度偏高,而拉尼娜事件对文登气温并无直接影响。     

ENSO与东亚冬季风关系的研究

本文以暖池区海水温度异常为纽带,联系三者相关性,分析东亚冬季风与ENSO的关系,认为异常冬季风影响到暖池区海表面温度正距平的向东传播,激发ENSO事件发生。     

重庆丰都高分辨率石笋δ13C记录与AD1250-1750a季风气候变化

利用长江三峡地区丰都水鸣洞石笋(NSM03)230Th测年数据和碳同位素数据建立了AD1250～1750时段平均分辨率约为1a的石笋碳同位素时间序列.水鸣洞石笋碳同位素记录显示小冰期开始时间大约为AD1300,与已发表的树轮、孢粉等气候记录指示的小冰期开始时间在定年误差范围内一致;该记录同时显示在小冰期内部存在次一级气候波动,最明显的两次气候波动时间分别在15世纪中期和16世纪末,后者对应过去500年间亚洲季风活动最弱时期.对石笋碳同位素序列进行功率谱分析发现,小冰期气候存在98a和3～6a波动周期,分别与太阳活动世纪周期和ENSO周期相吻合,表明太阳活动是小冰期的主要形成机制,而海气耦合作用则直接影响小冰期气候.     

不同ENSO事件对于西北太平洋热带气旋活动的影响

在前人研究基础上,重点分析不同的ENSO事件对于西北太平洋热带气旋的影响。通过分析表明,这些不同的ENSO事件,经典厄尔尼诺,经典拉尼娜,以及包括被分开的单独中性事件对TC的生成数量,生成位置和生成后的路径都有着不同的影响。     

黑河地区低温冷害时空分布及其对ENSO事件的响应

为黑河地区农业生产防灾减灾提供科学依据,利用黑河市1960-2015年6个气象台站作物生长季的气象资料,采用数理统计等方法,研究黑河地区低温冷害的时空分布特征及其对ENSO事件的响应。结果表明:1960-2015年5-9月黑河地区平均气温呈极显著上升趋势,气候倾向率为0.39℃/10a,作物生长季发生低温冷害呈逐年代减小趋势,一般冷害发生率为西多东少,严重冷害发生率为北少南多,其空间分布主要受大气环流因子和地形与地势因子综合作用的影响;黑河地区发生低温冷害与ENSO事件的相关性受气候变化背景的影响,20世纪90年代以前ENSO事件年是黑河市低温冷害的多发年份,20世纪90年代以后,受ENSO事件影响而低温冷害的发生率减小。     

巴里坤近40年极端降水特征分析及其对ENSO事件的响应

运用1976—2015年新疆维吾尔自治区哈密市巴里坤县气象局降水资料,分析了巴里坤县近40a极端降水天气特征及其对ENSO事件的响应。结果表明:巴里坤年际降水量分布不均,主要集中在夏季;年降水量总体趋势上升。降水天气对于ENSO事件的响应会有一定的滞后性,与El Nino事件需要滞后4个月才能达到最显著响应,而与La Nina事件只需滞后1个月,它们的相关显著性都通过了0.01显著性水平检验。     

The evolution of climate over the last millennium

Knowledge of past climate variability is crucial for understanding and modeling current and future climate trends. This article reviews present knowledge of changes in temperatures and two major circulation features-El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-over much of the last 1000 years, mainly on the basis of high-resolution paleoclimate records. Average temperatures during the last three decades were likely the warmest of the last millennium, about 0.2 degrees C warmer than during warm periods in the 11th and 12th centuries. The 20th century experienced the strongest warming trend of the millennium (about 0.6 degrees C per century). Some recent changes in ENSO may have been unique since 1800, whereas the recent trend to more positive NAO values may have occurred several times since 1500. Uncertainties will only be reduced through more extensive spatial sampling of diverse proxy climatic records.     

Eocene El Niño: evidence for robust tropical dynamics in the "hothouse"

Much uncertainty surrounds the interactions between the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and long-term global change. Past periods of extreme global warmth, exemplified by the Eocene (55 to 35 million years ago), provide a good testing ground for theories for this interaction. Here, we compare Eocene coupled climate model simulations with annually resolved variability records preserved in lake sediments. The simulations show Pacific deep-ocean and high-latitude surface warming of approximately 10 degrees C but little change in the tropical thermocline structure, atmosphere-ocean dynamics, and ENSO, in agreement with proxies. This result contrasts with theories linking past and future "hothouse" climates with a shift toward a permanent El Ni?o-like state.     

Variability in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation through a glacial-interglacial cycle

The El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most potent source of interannual climate variability. Uncertainty surrounding the impact of greenhouse warming on ENSO strength and frequency has stimulated efforts to develop a better understanding of the sensitivity of ENSO to climate change. Here we use annually banded corals from Papua New Guinea to show that ENSO has existed for the past 130,000 years, operating even during "glacial" times of substantially reduced regional and global temperature and changed solar forcing. However, we also find that during the 20th century ENSO has been strong compared with ENSO of previous cool (glacial) and warm (interglacial) times. The observed pattern of change in amplitude may be due to the combined effects of ENSO dampening during cool glacial conditions and ENSO forcing by precessional orbital variations.     

ENSO as an integrating concept in earth science

The El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle of alternating warm El Ni?o and cold La Ni?a events is the dominant year-to-year climate signal on Earth. ENSO originates in the tropical Pacific through interactions between the ocean and the atmosphere, but its environmental and socioeconomic impacts are felt worldwide. Spurred on by the powerful 1997-1998 El Ni?o, efforts to understand the causes and consequences of ENSO have greatly expanded in the past few years. These efforts reveal the breadth of ENSO's influence on the Earth system and the potential to exploit its predictability for societal benefit. However, many intertwined issues regarding ENSO dynamics, impacts, forecasting, and applications remain unresolved. Research to address these issues will not only lead to progress across a broad range of scientific disciplines but also provide an opportunity to educate the public and policy makers about the importance of climate variability and change in the modern world.     

El nino-southern oscillation events recorded in the stratigraphy of the tropical quelccaya ice cap, peru

Snow accumulation measured during 1982-1983 on the Quelccaya ice cap, Peru, was 70 percent of the average from 1975 through 1983. Inspection of 19 years (1964 through 1983) of accumulation measured near the summit of Quelccaya reveals a substantial decrease ( approximately 30 percent) in association with the last five El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) occurrences in the equatorial Pacific. The ENSO phenomenon is now recognized as a global event arising from large-scale interactions between the ocean and the atmosphere. Understanding this extreme event, with the goal of prediction, requires a record of past occurrences. The Quelccaya ice cap, which contains 1500 years of annually accumulated ice layers, may provide a long and detailed record of the most extreme ENSO events.     

Biospheric primary production during an ENSO transition

The Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) provides global monthly measurements of both oceanic phytoplankton chlorophyll biomass and light harvesting by land plants. These measurements allowed the comparison of simultaneous ocean and land net primary production (NPP) responses to a major El Ni?o to La Ni?a transition. Between September 1997 and August 2000, biospheric NPP varied by 6 petagrams of carbon per year (from 111 to 117 petagrams of carbon per year). Increases in ocean NPP were pronounced in tropical regions where El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) impacts on upwelling and nutrient availability were greatest. Globally, land NPP did not exhibit a clear ENSO response, although regional changes were substantial.     

1953—2013年福州市降水量变化的小波分析

运用小波分析法分析1953—2013年福州市年降水变化特征和季节降水变化特征。结果表明:(1)福州市年平均降水量约为1 366.69 mm,最小值(775.3 mm)发生在1967年,最大值(2 074 mm)发生在1990年。(2)降水量变化过程大致为:升—降—升—降—升—降—升,并包含多个不同尺度的时间周期。(3)除了春季外,各季节降水量在61 a间都呈现增长趋势。(4)近61年中降水量较多的年份如1990和1997年都对应厄尔尼诺年份;降水较少的年份如1954、1967、1995年都对应拉尼娜年份。厄尔尼诺—南方涛动(ENSO)事件与Mann-Kendall突变检验的结果较一致。福州市降水量年际变化与ENSO事件有一定关联。     

Dynamical response of the tropical Pacific Ocean to solar forcing during the early Holocene

We present a high-resolution magnesium/calcium proxy record of Holocene sea surface temperature (SST) from off the west coast of Baja California Sur, Mexico, a region where interannual SST variability is dominated today by the influence of the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Temperatures were lowest during the early to middle Holocene, consistent with documented eastern equatorial Pacific cooling and numerical model simulations of orbital forcing into a La Ni?a-like state at that time. The early Holocene SSTs were also characterized by millennial-scale fluctuations that correlate with cosmogenic nuclide proxies of solar variability, with inferred solar minima corresponding to El Ni?o-like (warm) conditions, in apparent agreement with the theoretical "ocean dynamical thermostat" response of ENSO to exogenous radiative forcing.     

El nino chaos: overlapping of resonances between the seasonal cycle and the pacific ocean-atmosphere oscillator

The El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle is modeled as a low-order chaotic process driven by the seasonal cycle. A simple model suggests that the equatorial Pacific ocean-atmosphere oscillator can go into nonlinear resonance with the seasonal cycle and that with strong enough coupling between the ocean and the atmosphere, the system may become chaotic as a result of irregular jumping of the ocean-atmosphere system among different nonlinear resonances. An analysis of a time series from an ENSO prediction model is consistent with the low-order chaos mechanism.     

ENSO现象对东南太平洋智利竹(竹夹)鱼资源丰度及其渔场变动的影响

ENSO（El Niño-southern oscillation）是目前全球已知的最大海-气相互作用现象,对渔业生产具有重要影响。根据2003-2016年我国东南太平洋智利竹（竹夹）鱼渔捞日志资料,结合Niño 3.4区海表温度距平值（SSTA）分析智利竹（竹夹）鱼渔场资源丰度和时空分布。结果表明：智利竹（竹夹）鱼渔场重心变化与ENSO现象存在着显著相关性,Niño 3.4区SSTA与经度重心的关联度为0.700,与纬度重心的关联度为0.726,与CPUE月间变化的关联度为0.520,与CPUE年间变化的关联度为0.703。厄尔尼诺期间,渔场重心存在向西北移动的趋势,其CPUE高于正常月份平均值;拉尼娜期间,渔场重心存在向东南移动的趋势,其CPUE低于正常月份平均值。