Bathymetric distribution of demersal fish in the Aegean and Ionian Seas based on generalized additive modeling

Good knowledge of the spatial distribution of fish is critical to stock assessment and successful fisheries management. Depth is often the main gradient along which faunal changes occur when analyzing shelf and upper slope assemblages, and thus knowledge of the bathymetric distribution of fish species is of great importance. The depth distribution of 16 fish species (Chelidonichthys lucernus, Helicolenus dactylopterus, Hoplostethus mediterraneus, Lepidorhombus boscii, Lophius budegassa, Merlangius merlangus, Merluccius merluccius, Micromesistius poutassou, Mullus barbatus, Mullus surmuletus, Pagellus erythrinus, Peristedion cataphractum, Phycis blennoides, Serranus cabrilla, Trigla lyra, and Trisopterus minutus) of the Aegean and the Ionian Seas was evaluated by analyzing experimental bottom trawl data, using generalized additive modeling (GAM) techniques. A variety of bathymetric distribution patterns was observed. The main bathymetric zone of each species was defined based on the modeled relative density. Specifically, the lower and upper limits of the main bathymetric zone of each species were defined as the depths where the estimated relative density of the species becomes less than 1% of the maximum. This definition is proposed as a better and more informative alternative than reporting the minimum and maximum depths of encounter.     

Use of individual types of fishing effort in analyzing catch and effort data by use of a generalized linear model

Fishing effort is a function of many (continuous) variables which fishers can manipulate. However, when catch and fishing effort data are analysed using a generalized linear model, individual types of fishing effort usually enter as a composite quantity. But not all quantities can be combined into a composite quantity. Use of such data this way generally leads to a loss of information and incurs a model bias. In this paper, I analyse catch and effort data for the blue swimmer crab off South Australia by a direct use of individual types of fishing effort to extract a relative index of biomass, and use the concept of homogeneous functions to present some of the results. I also give formulae for choosing a combination of different types of fishing effort to effect a specified level of catch in both absolute and relative terms. Assuming that catch follows an independent gamma, normal, negative binomial, or Poisson distribution, fitting of a generalized linear model with a log-link function to the commercial catch and effort data suggests that: (1) the exploitable biomass remained relatively constant from 1 July 1983 to 30 June 1996; (2) the relative instantaneous rate of fishing mortality of a particular sex and age (if gear selectivity was constant over time) slightly increased over time; (3) a 1% increase in the number of days fished gave about 0.85% increase in catch whereas a 1% increase in the number of people on a boat led to only about a 0.45% increase in catch. This implies that use of a composite measure of fishing effort such as boat days and man days when analysing catch and effort data is inappropriate for this fishery. Although a generalized linear model may be a reasonable first-order approximation, catch and effort data are best interpreted through a process model.     

The effects of land use and climate on red kite distribution in the Iberian peninsula

The main breeding populations of the red kite (Milvus milvus L.), have been declining in the Iberian peninsula during the last decade. However, there is a lack of regional assessments of habitat suitability that identifies limiting ecological factors for the species and areas with conservation problems. In this work we present a regional model for the distribution and abundance of breeding red kites in the Iberian peninsula. The occurrence and estimated abundance in 100 km² UTM squares resulting from road censuses were modelled with broad-scale explanatory variables obtained from satellite imagery, thematic digital cartography, climatic data and spatial coordinates. The occurrence model incorporated mainly climatic variables and had a good discrimination ability, while the abundance model incorporated mainly land-use variables and had a lower explanatory power (r²=0.14). The predictions somewhat overestimated the results of the censuses, and this agrees with the decline of population size and range observed for this species in the Iberian peninsula. These models are relevant in the conservation of the species: first, they suggest the limiting factors for red kite in the Iberian peninsula, and, second, they generate predictive maps pointing out both areas in which conservation problems may be acute (suitable locations that are unoccupied), and areas where no data is available but the red kite is likely to be present (thus guiding further survey and research).     

Threshold change in forest understory vegetation as a result of selective fuelwood extraction in Nairobi, Kenya

We examined whether heavy fuelwood collection can cause threshold change in understory forest community and evaluated how selective wood extraction might lead to delayed forest recovery in an urban forest of Nairobi, Kenya. Piecewise regression which represents strongest support for threshold change provided the best fit for the relationships between understory floristic composition (i.e. DCA axis 1) and human disturbance gradients (i.e. canopy cover, and distance from the slum), where threshold changes were detected at c.a. 350 m from the slum and c.a. 30% canopy cover. Only one tree species significantly indicated communities beyond the threshold while an aggressive invasive alien plant (IAP) Lantana camara was strongly represented. Total species diversity along the two human disturbance gradients peaked before the threshold was reached, suggesting that decline in species diversity along the prevailing disturbance gradient might be able to forecast threshold change. Tree species richness in the understory rapidly declined as the threshold was surpassed while other growth forms (i.e. shrubs, herbs and climbers) were relatively unaffected. The effect of selective tree cutting was indirectly impacting the forest understory as species richness pattern of preferred and non-preferred species paralleled that of trees and shrubs, respectively. Thickets of L. camara can negatively affect indigenous flora and its establishment was favored under selective fuelwood extraction removing certain tree species while leaving the IAP untouched. Shading can readily eliminate the IAP, but weak tree regeneration beyond the threshold suggested forest recovery might be delayed for longer than expected because of the interaction between selective fuelwood use and the IAP.     

印度洋中国大眼金枪鱼延绳钓渔业CPUE标准化

使用广义线性模型(GLM)和广义可加模型(GAM)对印度洋中国大眼金枪鱼渔业的单位捕捞努力量渔获量(CPUE)进行标准化。在CPUE标准化模型中,考虑了空间(经度与纬度)、时间(年与月)和环境(包括各深度温度、各深度盐度和海平面高度)等变量。结果表明,标准化CPUE和名义CPUE在时空分布上呈相似的趋势。年CPUE随时间呈现下降的趋势,高CPUE经常出现在42°E～60°E、85°E～90°E、15°S～5°S和10°N～15°N的区域内。GLM和GAM分析都显示出经度是影响CPUE最重要的变量,可分别解释17.3%和23.81%的变异;纬度、经度和纬度的交互效应、年份、381 m水层温度、317 m水层温度对CPUE的影响也是明显的。此研究中GLM模型比GAM模型更合适。     

海州湾海域鱼类分类多样性的时空变化及其与环境因子的关系

根据2011年3—12月在海州湾海域进行的5个航次的渔业资源综合调查,并结合相关的历史资料,研究海州湾海域鱼类分类多样性及其时空变化,并通过构建 GAM 模型分析平均分类差异指数(Δ+)和分类差异变异指数(Λ+)与环境因子之间的关系.结果表明,海州湾共有鱼类96种,隶属于2纲13目44科71属,其中Δ+的理论平均值为79.5,而Λ+的理论平均值为200.6.两个分类多样性指数均呈现明显的季节和空间变化,这可能与海州湾海域鱼类的季节性洄游和环境因子的差异有关.通过 GAM 模型分析发现,水深和底层溶氧对Δ+具有显著影响,而水深、底层溶氧、底层水温和月份则是影响Λ+的关键环境因子.通过比较中国近海不同纬度海域之间的鱼类分类多样性指数,发现Δ+和Λ+均呈现出“北高南低”的变化趋势,说明纬度变化对鱼类分类多样性的空间分布格局具有重要影响.     

基于GAM模型研究金枪鱼围网沉降性能影响因素

金枪鱼围网渔业是现代金枪鱼渔业中捕捞效率最高的方法,研究围网沉降性能与影响因子之间的关系有利于提高围网捕捞效率.利用2011年9-12月金枪鱼围网渔船“金汇7号”在中西太平洋作业时所收集的数据,实验分析了围网沉降深度(H)与放网时间(T),放网速度(V0),括纲(L)及跑纲(L1)的投放长度,10、60和120 m 3个水层流速(V10,V60及V120)等因子之间的关系,并利用广义加性模型(GAM)评价了各因子对沉降深度的影响.结果表明:(1)网具中部沉降深度与时间的关系为H=-0.000 2 t2 +0.408 6 t+1.809 9(R2 =0.999 3);(2)沉降速度随着深度的增加而减小,网具中部沉降速度与时间的关系为V=2.5 ×107 t2-6×104 t +0.4412(R2 =0.985 2);(3)GAM模型中的逐步回归分析表明,T、V60、V120和L4个因子对H影响显著,且影响大小依次为V120、L、T和V60;(4)GAM模型分析表明,沉降深度随放网时间的增加而增大,放网时间集中在500 ～550 s;流速的大小与沉降深度呈负相关;括纲投放长度主要集中在1 800 m左右.     

基于GAM模型的马鞍列岛海域优势甲壳类与环境因子的关系研究

海洋虾类和虾蛄等甲壳类是许多鱼类的饵料生物,是海洋生态系统的重要组成部分。为了探索马鞍列岛海域优势甲壳类与环境因子之间的关系,文章基于广义加性模型(GAM)建立了甲壳类与环境因子的生态模型,并对甲壳类资源分布进行预测。结果表明,影响细巧仿对虾(Parapenaeopisis tenella)分布的主要因素是时间因素和底质,影响口虾蛄(Squilla orarotia)分布的主要因素包括底质、经度、温度和盐度,而影响葛氏长臂虾(Palaemon gravieri)分布的显著因素是时间因素。从分布格局来看,细巧仿对虾生物量低值出现在研究海域中间区域,高值出现在东北部海域;3月口虾蛄生物量在东南海域较高,而10月在西部海域较高;葛氏长臂虾分布低值出现在研究海域中间区域,高值海域环绕低值海域周围分布。     

北太平洋公海日本鲭资源分布及其渔场环境特征

根据2014~2015年两年收集的北太平洋公海围拖网作业的日本鲭(Scomber japonicas,又称鲐鱼)生产月度数据,结合同期卫星遥感反演技术获取的海表温度(SST)、海水叶绿素a(Chl-a)浓度、海流等环境数据,运用渔获量重心法,地统计插值等方法,分析了北太平洋公海鲐鱼的资源分布情况与渔获量重心的时空变化及其与主要环境因子之间的关系。研究表明,鲐鱼渔场季节性差异明显,渔场重心集中分布在39°N~43°N、147°E~154°E范围内。两年渔场重心均呈现先向东北方向移动,自9月开始再向西南方向移动的趋势。GAM模型显示,北太平洋鲐鱼渔场的最适海表温度范围是16~18℃,最适叶绿素a浓度范围是0.3~0.8 mg·m~(-3),空间上集中分布在40°N~41°N、148°E~151°E,海流对鲐鱼渔场形成尤为重要。     

南太平洋长鳍金枪鱼延绳钓渔获率与环境因子的关系研究

为掌握不同水层的环境因子对长鳍金枪鱼(Thunnus alalunga)延绳钓渔获率的影响,根据2015-2017年中国大陆在该海域的长鳍金枪鱼延绳钓渔捞日志资料,结合同期海洋环境数据,采用广义可加模型(Generalized additive model,GAM)对渔获率与各因子的关系进行研究。通过相关分析获取各环境因子相关系数,对相关性较大的环境因子分组建模。结果表明:1)海表面温度与120 m水深温度、海表面温度与海表面高度、120 m水深温度与海表面高度、300 m水深温度与300 m水深盐度为高度相关因子,海表面盐度、叶绿素a浓度、海表风场南北分量与其他环境因子之间的相关性均较小;2)模型的总解释偏差介于30%~40%,各环境因子重要性依次为120 m水深温度、海表温度、300 m水深温度、120 m水深盐度、海表面高度、300 m水深盐度、海表盐度、混合层深度、海面风场南北分量、海面风场东西分量、叶绿素a浓度;3)120 m水深温度与单位捕捞努力渔获量(CPUE)在15~30℃呈负相关。海表温度整体趋势与120 m水深温度类似,其中在25~28℃呈正相关。300 m水深温度与CPUE在10~18℃呈现明显的正效应关系。