武威市极大风速气候特征分析及其推算

利用武威市观测站2005~2013年最大风速与极大风速观测数据,拟合武威市最大风速与极大风速之间关系,从而推算1980~2004年极大风速,对武威市1980年以来极大风速气候特征进行分析。结果表明,1980年以来武威市极大风速共出现4个峰值,分别出现在1984、1985、1993和2013年,尤其是1993年,极大风速达30.5 m/s,历史灾情记录显示1993年的"5.5黑风"破环力极强,给武威的农业生产带来了极大的影响,1994~2012年属于极大风速较小阶段,但由于此阶段武威市设施农业发展迅速,仍是给当地生产造成的严重的损失,利用第Ⅰ型极值分布方法推算武威市未来10、30、50、100年内可能出现的最大风速,推算结果分别为28.6、31.3、32.6、34.3m/s,在今后设施农业的规划和发展应加强大风灾害的防范。     

烟台地区的大风预报研究

通过对烟台地区的地形和海陆分布特点,主要从天气学的角度统计和分析了该地区2001 ～ 2009年大风发生的范围以及不同范围大风的日数年代、季节变化规律,并利用现有的MICAPS资料对烟台地区的大风环流型进行了分析,同时就目前该地区大风的预报方法进行了概述.结果表明,烟台地区大风天气中以个别大风为主,其中大风天气主要发生在3～5月;10年内,大风的年际变化趋势基本是按照曲线递增达到峰值后又开始递减的趋势,期间出现了2002和2007年2个峰值,并有1个谷值;在对烟台地区进行大风预报时,选取了网格点中与烟台站关联的平均分布的5个站点（烟台、福山、海阳、龙口、长岛）进行预报研究,通过参考文献以及烟台等站点的经验预报,选取8个预报因子作为备用预报因子,利用逐步回归程序建立了5个站的预报方程并对最后的结果进行了回报检验,虽然取得了一定的预报效果,但预报精度比较低,不是特别的理想.     

仿真固沙灌木林与塑料网方格沙障防风固沙效能比较

干旱区的水资源限制了植物治沙应用范围,将仿真固沙灌木加入退化梭梭林,比较仿真固沙灌木＋梭梭的灌木林与塑料网方格沙障防风固沙效能,为仿真固沙灌木应用提供参考。在野外相同条件下观测比较仿真固沙灌木林与塑料网方格沙障内风速,结果显示：仿真固沙灌木＋梭梭灌木林的风速削减率与塑料网方格沙障的差异不显著;随着风速增大,仿真固沙灌木降低风速率与塑料网方格沙障降低风速率差异变小;在风速为8.1~8.9 m s-1时,仿真固沙灌木降低风速率达塑料方格沙障的80%;仿真固沙灌木＋梭梭灌木林的输沙率随高度变化为指数递减,是裸沙地的35%;仿真固沙灌木林的建立不受气候条件影响,可重复应用,与灌木搭配可增强防风固沙效能。     

Forest management and forest state in southern Sweden before and after the impact of storm Gudrun in the winter of 2005

About three times the annual cut in southern Sweden (Götaland) was damaged by the storm Gudrun in January 2005, i.e. almost as much as the normal annual cut for all of Sweden. To establish any differences in forest management and state before and after the storm, measures such as growing stock volume, age-class distribution, and species composition were analyzed within the damaged area. As a reference the situation before and after the storm within the area in Götaland not damaged by the storm was also analyzed. For all analyses, sample plots from the Swedish National Forest Inventory were used. Results based on mean values for the years 2000–2004/2005–2009 showed that the total growing stock for the damaged area decreased by approximately 30 million m³ after the storm. This was mainly caused by a decrease in Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) H. Karst). Annual growth for pine, spruce, and deciduous trees decreased by 1.8 million m³ in the damaged area. This mainly included stands already thinned and not, as expected, in the stands ready for final felling. Also, the proportional area within each of the age classes 21–40, 41–60, and 61–80 years decreased. The storm led to an increased area in immediate need of precommercial thinning. No changes in choice of species when regenerating could be observed. Furthermore, only marginal adaptation by forest owners to future risk of wind throw could be detected.     

履带式遥控风力灭火机的设计与研究

为了提高灭火效率、缩短灭火距离、解决灭火人员负载过重及灭火安全等问题,本文通过对履带式遥控风力灭火机工作原理的分析及总体方案的确定,设计了履带式遥控风力灭火机行走机构.设计的履带式遥控风力灭火机可以实现远程遥控且具有良好的爬坡能力和通过能力.     

乌鲁木齐地区风能资源及风力发电机特性

为了评估乌鲁木齐地区不同高度的风能资源及当地风力发电机特性,分析了两参数威布尔风速分布模型、风速随高度变化的模型、风能功率密度和容量因子等模型．利用乌鲁木齐地区10,20,30,40,50,60,70 m高度的风速数据,分析了该地区典型气象年不同高度的月平均风速、年平均风速、年平均风能功率密度、风速概率分布、基于极大似然法的威布尔形状参数与尺度参数、累计概率分布,同时选取了该地区使用的8种中小型风力发电机,分析了这些风力发电机的容量因子及能量输出．结果表明：乌鲁木齐地区10～70 m范围内的风能资源介于可利用区和较丰富区之间,该地区风力发电机的容量因子偏小,其变化范围为4.4％～19.8％,这主要是由于该地区平均风速不大所致,说明了乌鲁木齐地区不适合建大型的风力发电厂,但是适合建小型的风力发电厂,或以风力发电为辅助的混合发电系统,或者以风力驱动的机械系统．     

Promoting connectivity between priority freshwater sites for conservation in intermittent hydrological systems

1. Systematic conservation planning in freshwater ecosystems faces multiple challenges because of the dynamic nature of rivers and their multiple dimensions of connectivity. In intermittent hydrological systems connectivity is functional when water is available, allowing the exchange of aquatic individuals between isolated freshwater ecosystems. Integrating these isolated systems in their hydrological context is essential when identifying priority areas for conservation, in order to try to minimize the propagation of threats into target water bodies (management units) from the surrounding landscape.
2. Here, the use of a systematic planning approach is demonstrated to identify a set of priority management units to preserve freshwater biodiversity in an arid system of fragmented water bodies immersed in a landscape subject to a range of impacts.
3. Twenty-six water-dependent taxa from 59 mountain rock pools (gueltas) of three southern Mauritanian mountains were used as a case study. A conservation planning tool (marxan ) was used to find priority conservation areas to integrate intermittent hydrological systems in their hydrological context, promote connectivity, and minimize the downstream propagation of threats. Three types of connectivity were analysed: (i) no connectivity, (ii) connectivity between gueltas, and (iii) connectivity between gueltas and sub-catchments.
4. Considering different types of longitudinal connectivity affects the number and spatial allocation of the priority gueltas selected, and the conservation status of the gueltas and their upstream areas. Incorporating connections between gueltas and upstream locations in the modelling resulted in the selection of gueltas in areas with a low human footprint and in the increased connectivity of the solutions.
5. The results obtained revealed important locations for local biodiversity conservation, and the method presented can be used when assessing the propagation of potential waterborne threats into isolated management units. The framework developed allows connectivity to be addressed in conservation planning. It can be replicated in regions with similar isolated habitats that connect through intermittent hydrological systems and can also be applied to lateral and vertical hydrological connectivity.

     

太阳自动跟踪系统机构静力学及脉动风模拟分析

运用大型有限元软件ANSYS建立有限元模型,对太阳自动跟踪系统中的几个典型构件组合以及整体机构进行结构静力学模拟仿真分析,同时根据瞬态动力学理论模拟脉动风对机构的影响,探讨了模拟分析的细节问题并给出了求解全过程。组合结构以及整体机构的静力学模拟仿真分析结果表明了该机构可以达到设计要求。通过对机构进行脉动风共振模拟试验,由瞬态动力学分析结果表明脉动风使机构产生的振动频率小于固有频率,机构不会发生共振现象。并通过对两种模拟分析结果的比较,表明脉动风对机构的受力影响大。     

黄土高原北部草地表层土壤水分状态空间模拟

为探明黄土高原北部草地表层土壤水分空间分布特征及其与环境因素的关系,该文用自回归状态空间模型和经典统计的线性回归模型对该区草地表层土壤含水率的分布状况进行了模拟。结果表明,状态空间方程可以应用于环境因素复杂的黄土高原水蚀风蚀交错区,其拟合效果优于线性回归模型。单因素中基于饱和导水率的模拟效果最佳（R2 = 0.936）;多因素模拟中以饱和导水率+海拔+凋落物模拟效果最佳（R2 = 0.976）,可以很好地解释表层土壤水分的变异状况。自回归状态空间模型可用于研究黄土高原北部水蚀风蚀交错区表层土壤水分与其他因素的空间关系。     

基于小波变换和神经网络的短期风电功率预测方法

随着并网风电场规模的不断增大,为保证电力系统运行的稳定性、合理制定调度计划、提高风电场在发电市场的竞争力,需要对短期风电功率进行准确地预测。该文提出一种小波变换和神经网络理论相结合的综合预测方法,将历史风电功率序列和历史风速序列分别进行小波单尺度分解,得到对应的概貌功率、细节功率和概貌风速、细节风速;然后用概貌功率和概貌风速序列训练BP神经网络,预测未来的概貌功率;用细节功率和细节风速序列训练BP神经网络,预测未来的细节功率。在此基础上,将概貌功率和细节功率叠加,得到最终预测结果。对我国某风电场的实际数据