农产品价格短期预测系统设计与实现

以面向服务设计与业务为导向,基于B/S模式,采用SSH框架和JAVA方式,借鉴Spring、Struts等开源项目的设计思想,通过中间件嵌入Eviews和Easyfit,研究构建了农产品价格短期预测系统,实现了农产品价格短期预测、农产品市场风险动态预警、农产品进京路线展示和农产品市场行情解析等四大业务功能,将经济模型转化为能实现智能分析、操作便携、运行稳定的系统工具,增强了经济分析成果对现实生产的指导作用。     

水产食品特定腐败菌与货架期的预测和延长

Fresh fish and lightly preserved fish products are welcome by the global market, however, they are also among the most perishable food products. The research on specific spoilage organisms (SSO) reveals the spoilage process of aquatic product. This paper reviews the current knowledge (past ten years) on SSO of fresh fish and lightly preserved fish products with particular emphasis on characteristics of SSO and how to apply this concept to determine, predict and extend the shelf life of aquatic product. During storage, the microflora changes owing to different abilities of the microorganisms to tolerate the preservation conditions. SSO is defined as special microorganisms which can increase rapidly during preservation and has the ability to produce off- odours and off- flavours associated with spoilage, and spoilage metabolites. Identification of an SSO relies on comparison of the sensory and chemical characteristics of spoiled product with those of isolates from the spoilage microflora. Generally, the SSO of fresh fish may be a single species or genus, but the ones of lightly preserved fish products will be more complex. One exciting area for use of SSO aims to obtain quantitative knowledge about probable behavior of SSO and their function during the progression of spoilage. Thus mathematical models on the growth of SSO are established to evaluate the quality lost degree of product, which provide a sound information for the rational development of devices to monitor loss of products shelf life. Models for the growth of Pseudomonas spp, S. putrefaciens, P. phosphoreum have been established, and validated for shelf life prediction of seafood successfully. Another application field of SSO intends to develop the techniques to prolong the shelf life of food products by inhibiting SSO targetedly. Targeted inhibition of spoilage bacteria during preservation reduces their growth and results in a significant extension of shelf life in despite of the activity of non - spoilage organisms has not been influenced. Such techniques have been applied in perversion field of fresh fish and lightly preserved fish.     

基于GIS的绿色农产品基地适宜性评价

建立和完善绿色农产品基地适宜性评价方法,提高评价结果的实用性和准确性,是实现农产品安全的根本保障。研究依据基地认证者、规划者、生产者3种评价主体实际需求,分别引入污染潜在风险指标和经济状况指标,建立面向不同评价主体需求的多种主导因子评价指标体系,并借助GIS的空间分析方法进行定量评价,最后以北京大兴区为例进行了案例分析研究。结果表明,基地与工矿企业距离、与居民地距离等潜在污染风险对基地适宜性限制大,且不同评价主体下建立不同指标体系使评价更具针对性,利用GIS功能可提高效率,评价结果可视化程度好,具有很强的     

基于电磁感应的典型干旱区土壤盐分空间异质性

为研究干旱区土壤盐分空间异质性,指导农业生产实践,运用大地电导率仪（EM38、EM31）对研究区域进行移动式磁感调查,获取表观电导率（ECa）。同时,通过27个校准点的采样和ECa测量,建立土壤盐分的电磁感应解译模型。干旱区土壤盐分质量分数与EM38、EM31水平模式读数（H38、H31）显示出良好的相关性（R=0.935）,可以利用ECa结合GIS和地统计学知识研究土壤盐分的空间分布。采用两种方法进行研究：一种是先利用解译模型获取磁感调查点的土壤盐分质量分数,然后进行地统计分析研究其空间分布;另一种是先利用地统计分析研究H38和H31的空间分布,然后利用解译模型通过栅格运算计算盐分质量分数,精度检验显示前者预测值与实测值之间的相关性更好（R2, 0.888＞0.873）;标准差较低（std. 0.414＜0.426）,具有更高的预测精度。研究结果表明,基于电磁感应研究干旱区土壤盐分空间异质性是切实可行的,这对于土壤盐渍化的快速诊断,指导农业生产和促进精准农业的发展具有重要的意义。     

Predicting the rate of range expansion of an invasive alien bumblebee (Bombus terrestris) using a stochastic spatio-temporal model

To develop effective strategies for managing biological invasions, it is important to understand and be able to predict patterns of invasion and range expansion, and particularly the rate of spread and factors controlling this rate. To predict the spatial dynamics of invasion by an alien bumblebee (Bombus terrestris) in Hokkaido, Japan, we explicitly constructed a stochastic spatio-temporal model that incorporates immigration and establishment processes. Using a Bayesian approach, we parameterized the model based on spatio-temporal presence/absence data collected by citizen volunteers and used the model to predict control of the near-future spread of the bumblebee under several management strategies. The range expansion dynamics of B. terrestris were significantly negatively affected by two aspects of environmental heterogeneity: the land-use pattern (the proportion of woodland) and climate (the snow depth). Of the several spatial management strategies, suppressing the outlying (edge) colonies would be the most efficient strategy to reduce the bumblebee’s spread, irrespective of the level of effort, and would significantly slow the bumblebee’s range expansion during the next 30 years. The modeling approach employed in the present study will be broadly useful for studying real-world biological invasion problems, for which prediction of the progress of an invasion, even in the very near future, is urgently needed to support effective spatial management options and countermeasures. In addition, the model demonstrates that incorporating the dynamics of environmental heterogeneity is a fundamental requirement for prediction and risk assessment during biological invasions, especially in the context of recent rapid changes in the environment at regional and global scales.     

Seasonal changes in the spatial structures of N2O, CO2, and CH4 fluxes from Acacia mangium plantation soils in Indonesia

We evaluated the spatial structures of nitrous oxide (N₂O), carbon dioxide (CO₂), and methane (CH₄) fluxes in an Acacia mangium plantation stand in Sumatra, Indonesia, in drier (August) and wetter (March) seasons. A 60 × 100-m plot was established in an A. mangium plantation that included different topographical elements of the upper plateau, lower plateau, upper slope and foot slope. The plot was divided into 10 × 10-m grids and gas fluxes and soil properties were measured at 77 grid points at 10-m intervals within the plot. Spatial structures of the gas fluxes and soil properties were identified using geostatistical analyses. Averaged N₂O and CO₂ fluxes in the wetter season (1.85 mg N m⁻² d⁻¹ and 4.29 g C m⁻² d⁻¹, respectively) were significantly higher than those in the drier season (0.55 mg N m⁻² d⁻¹ and 2.73 g C m⁻² d⁻¹, respectively) and averaged CH₄ uptake rates in the drier season (−0.62 mg C m⁻² d⁻¹) were higher than those in the wetter season (−0.24 mg C m⁻² d⁻¹). These values of N₂O fluxes in A. mangium soils were higher than those reported for natural forest soils in Sumatra, while CO₂ and CH₄ fluxes were in the range of fluxes reported for natural forest soils. Seasonal differences in these gas fluxes appears to be controlled by soil water content and substrate availability due to differing precipitation and mineralization of litter between seasons. N₂O fluxes had strong spatial dependence with a range of about 18 m in both the drier and wetter seasons. Topography was associated with the N₂O fluxes in the wetter season with higher and lower fluxes on the foot slope and on the upper plateau, respectively, via controlling the anaerobic-aerobic conditions in the soils. In the drier season, however, we could not find obvious topographic influences on the spatial patterns of N₂O fluxes and they may have depended on litter amount distribution. CO₂ fluxes had no spatial dependence in both seasons, but the topographic influence was significant in the drier season with lowest fluxes on the foot slope, while there was no significant difference between topographic positions in the wetter season. The distributions of litter amount and soil organic matter were possibly associated with CO₂ fluxes through their effects on microbial activities and fine root distribution in this A. mangium plantation.     

赤峰市旅游发展定位及对策研究

赤峰市具有丰富的自然生态和历史文化旅游资源,特色突出,优势明显,极具开发潜力。按照资源导向和市场导向相结合的原则,统筹规划,科学定位,协调发展,选择性开发。要以塑造旅游形象为核心,把突出旅游产品创新,促进旅游要素的全面发展,实施立体化的促销策略作为当前的工作重点。     

城镇化进程中的粮食安全问题:一个研究综述

研究城镇化进程中的粮食安全问题,本质上是城镇化进程中产业之间的协调问题。中国的城镇化由于规模庞大、人口众多,使得城镇化是否影响粮食安全的研究一直伴随着国家城镇化水平的提升而从未间断过,特别是中国开始进入城镇化快速发展阶段之后。在简单回顾城镇化与粮食安全问题研究历史的基础上,通过着重梳理近十年来中国城镇化对粮食安全的研究文献,从城镇化影响粮食安全的因素和城镇化背景下保障粮食安全的解决方案两个角度的内容出发,指出了研究侧重点的发展变化。在影响因素问题上,研究者们从最初的侧重关注耕地减少,到探索农业生产技术应用提升农业生产力,再到保障劳动力的资源水平和满足粮食消费,越来越全面地认识城镇化对粮食安全的影响。而在解决方案上,从战略政策的演变,到夯实生产能力的策略变化,再到对海外资源依靠方式的转变,体现出不断完善的粮食安全保障体系建立。最后认为未来的研究可以在空间异质性、人力资本和制度要素变化上进一步深入。     

广西中密度纤维板产业发展及挑战

概述了广西中密度纤维板产业十几年来的发展状况，对当前中密度纤维板产业面临与造纸行业的原料竞争、刨花板和胶合板对部分中密度纤维板市场的冲击、一些中小型中密度纤维板厂的产品质量不达标这三方面的问题做了分析，并提出了加强原料林建设、加大科研投入、进一步提高产品质量等一系列解决措施。     

福建省水产加工人才培训培养情况调研

本文通过收集资料和对福建省部分水产企业及相关政府（行业）部门进行走访调查,着重分析福建省水产加工企业现状、水产行业的人才结构和人才需求情况,重点指出福建水产加工业在人才培训培养方面所存在的不足和问题,探寻高校相关专业的人才输出与社会需求接轨的有效途径。