风险厌恶下的供应链收益共享契约协调模型研究

收益共享契约是实现供应链系统绩效改善或完美协调的一种机制.考虑了零售商与供应商分别具有风险厌恶决策偏好情况下，在随机市场需求下建立了由单供应商和单零售商组成的二级供应链的收益共享契约模型，并对模型进行了分析，揭示了供应商和零售商的风险厌恶决策偏好对收益共享契约参数的影响.研究结果表明：当销售商（供应商）的风险厌恶控制在一定程度内时，通过调整收益共享契约参数，可以保证供应链的协调.     

天气衍生品的运作机制与精算定价

天气衍生品是为了规避天气风险给天气敏感行业带来收入的不稳定性而兴起的创新型风险管理工具，其实质是通过衍生合约对天气风险进行分割、重组和交易的证券化产品。不同于传统金融衍生品，天气衍生品的价值取决于温度、湿度或降雨量等天气指数。本文在分析天气衍生品市场发展的基础上，重点探讨了最常见的天气期货和天气期权的运作机制及其精算定价。     

气候变化背景下济南市长清区干旱灾害风险评价研究

综合干旱类型,从致灾因子的危险性、敏感性、易损性及防灾减灾能力4个指标出发,分析气候变化背景下的山东省济南市长清区干旱灾害风险变化。结果表明,长清区干旱危险性分布特征总体表现为由西北向东南递减的趋势;干旱灾害孕灾体敏感性总体呈现出由西南向东北递减的趋势;干旱灾害易损性分布基本以行政区为单位,高易损性分布在除平安街道办事处外的西部地区;干旱灾害的防灾减灾能力总体呈现东北高、西南低的分布特征;干旱综合风险性呈现西南高、东北低的分布规律。     

Economic performance and comparative riskiness of different management practices for control of botrytis fruit rot in florida strawberry

Florida strawberry farmers usually rely on weekly calendar fungicide applications to prevent yield loss from Botrytis fruit rot (BFR). The Strawberry Advisory System (SAS), which helps optimize the timing of fungicide applications, is an additional tool in the farmers' arsenal of disease control options. This study uses data from two-year production trials in Florida combined with historical strawberry prices to measure the economic performance of the Calendar and SAS-based BFR management practices under output price risk and producers' risk preferences. We use Monte Carlo simulation to model the effect of the variability in weekly output prices on farm returns. Results reveal that the traditional calendar-based system is not the least risky BFR management option as growers expected to be. SAS-based options such as SAS-Switch and SAS-Luna would be preferred by both risk-neutral and risk-averse producers and are recommended under high disease pressure conditions.     

Evaluation the effect of subchronic feeding of transgenic cotton line (CKC1) on the faecal microbiota of albino rabbits

Recent studies have demonstrated a strong relationship between the intestinal microbiota and the host health. As such, consumers are increasingly becoming more concerned about the potential effect of certain foods/feeds, particularly of transgenic origin on the gut microbiota. Although the European Food Safety Authority has recommended in their guidelines, to study the effect of transgenic food/feed on host-microbiota, yet, few studies have focused on the evaluation of such effects mainly due to culturing difficulties. Therefore, this study was intended to evaluate the potential adverse effects of transgenic diet consumption on some specific gut microflora (Lactobacillus group, Bifidobacterium genus, Escherichia coli subgroup and Enterococcus genus) of rabbits. A total of forty-eight rabbits were randomly assigned into four groups and fed a diet containing a variable proportion of transgenic cottonseeds at 0, 20, 30 and 40% inclusion level, respectively. Changes in the specific or total faecal bacterial population were monitored at five different experimental stages (i.e. 0, 45, 90, 135 and 180 days) using both the traditional plate count method (TM) and quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR). No significant differences (p > .05) were observed concerning numbers of specific bacteria or total bacteria between the control and experimental groups, though qPCR showed numerically higher values in terms of 16S rRNA gene copies as compared to the values obtained from TM. However, such numerical differences were biologically insignificant (p > .05). Similarly, no significant variations were noticed in the calculated B/E (log₁₀ copies of Bifidobacterium per g faces/log10 copies of E. coli genome per g faeces) ratios in all the groups. All the ratios were in the range of 1.24 to 1.30 throughout the experiment, indicating a good balance of intestinal microflora and greater resistance to intestinal disorders. It is therefore concluded that feeding transgenic cottonseeds could not adversely affect the gut microflora of rabbits during a long-term study.     

Molecular characterisation of Theileria equi and risk factors associated with the occurrence of theileriosis in horses of Punjab (Pakistan)

Theileria equi (T. equi) is an obligate intra- and extra-erythrocytic parasite that causes equine theileriosis (ET) in equids. Equine theileriosis is considered a notifiable disease of global significance, a major constraint to the international movement of horses, and endemic in many countries. This disease may be difficult to diagnose, as it can produce variable and nonspecific clinical signs. A cross-sectional study was designed for the molecular characterisation of T. equi and to investigate the associated risk factors of ET accompanied by its consequences on haematological and sero-biochemical parameters. A convenience sampling of 500 blood samples were collected from ET suspect horses from January to December 2017. PCR was performed on all blood samples targeting the 18S rRNA gene of T. equi followed by sequencing; 9% animals tested positive with confirmed sequences. The isolates of this study showed high homology with Cuban, Russian and Brazilian isolates of T. equi (accession numbers KY111762.2 , MG551915.1 and KY952237.1 , respectively). Based on multivariate analysis, the principal risk factors consisted of absence of dogs on the premises and presence of tick infestation. The haemato-biochemical parameters showed a decrease in granulocytes and erythrocytes, and an increase in lymphocytes, monocytes, mean corpuscular volume, mean corpuscular haemoglobin, mean platelet volume, glucose, phosphorus and aspartate aminotransferase in positive horses. This is the first study which identified ET in Punjab (Pakistan) using molecular techniques and risk factors together with the haemato-biochemical variations in horses.     

兽药中非法添加物检测及风险防范技术研究

本文总结了近年来兽药中非法添加的规律,分析成因;全面梳理现有检测标准,对非法添加物检测方法的检测对象和目标药物进行统计分析,研究检测方法发展及内在联系。在非法添加物检测方法提升和风险防范方面进行思考,提出筛查与确证方法并重、进一步扩大检测方法适用性、加强高效、高通量检测技术研究、拓展非法添加物检测品种范围;加强检查与宣传、疏堵结合,全面减少非法添加风险。     

饲料加工企业内控评价指标体系的构建及其应用研究

面对日益复杂的竞争形势,饲料加工企业需要加强内控管理。为了评价内控体系的有效性,通常寻找一些评价指标形成体系对内控进行评价。本文提出构建内控评价指标体系需要一些前提,包括对关键环节的识别、评价原则的确定等,在指标选取中,至少应涵盖公司层面、业务层面、财务层面和合法合规层面的指标。内控评价体系构建后,需要有组织保障和制度保障,并且需要不断改进完善。 [关键词] 饲料加工企业|内部控制|评价指标体系|风险管理     

我国羊隐孢子虫感染情况及危险因素

隐孢子虫是可以感染小反刍动物的肠道原生生物,具有潜在的公共卫生学问题。隐孢子虫可引起人和动物的腹泻和肠道疾病,严重情况下会出现死亡。被感染的动物可能是人畜共患型隐孢子虫的宿主,可引起公共卫生风险、农场利润减少和动物福利等问题。隐孢子虫病已被报道是新生牛、羊等反刍动物腹泻和死亡的一个重要原因,认为是新生羔羊腹泻的第二大诱因,仅次于轮状病毒。羊隐孢子虫病在世界范围内都有发现,不同程度地威胁着人和动物的身体健康,基于此,现就隐孢子虫对羊感染的危险因素和常用检测方法,以及我国羊感染的现状进行综述,为其防控提供参考。