甘肃省生态环境综合评价指标体系研究

甘肃省生态系统分为社会经济系统和自然生态系统两大类 ,社会经济系统指标体系由社会经济条件和人为环境压力构成 ;自然生态系统由水环境、森林生态系统、草地生态系统和土壤生态系统四个次一级系统组成 ,每个次一级生态系统由各自所属指标体系来系统评定。利用因子分析法、Delphi法和头脑风暴法经过多次综合专家意见最终确定 2 6项指标作为甘肃省生态环境质量综合评价体系。利用层次分析法 (AHP)定量各指标的权重。通过综合评价表明 ,甘南州、陇南地区、张掖地区的生态环境质量较好 ,甘肃中部广大黄土高原地区次之 ,河西走廊的武威市、金昌市和嘉峪关市环境质量最差。评价结果真实地反映了甘肃省生态环境的基本状况 ,说明该指标体系具有科学性 ,能够用于不同地区之间或同一地区不同时间的环境质量对比与变化研究。     

论农药的宏观毒理学

农药一旦喷撒到目标物上,即开始了向有害生物作用靶位转移的漫长历程。作者建议把此历程区分为两个范畴:进入有害生物体内以后的体内剂量转移是传统的生理毒理学研究领域,属于'微观毒理学’范畴;之前发生在生物体外的剂量转移历程尚未被作为毒理学问题研究,但许多边缘科学的大量科学事实和现象说明它们实际上属于毒理学问题,应属于'宏观毒理学’范畴。文章对农药宏观毒理学现象的7个方面进行了毒理学本质的分析和综述,并指出,对农药宏观毒理学的研究将大幅度提高农药的使用技术水平,大幅度降低农药用量,并将促进农药剂型和高性能助剂乃至新型合理化农药的研究开发。     

Characterizing historical and modern fire regimes in Michigan (USA): A landscape ecosystem approach

We studied the relationships of landscape ecosystems to historical and contemporary fire regimes across 4.3 million hectares in northern lower Michigan (USA). Changes in fire regimes were documented by comparing historical fire rotations in different landscape ecosystems to those occurring between 1985 and 2000. Previously published data and a synthesis of the literature were used to identify six forest-replacement fire regime categories with fire rotations ranging from very short (<100 years) to very long (>1,000 years). We derived spatially-explicit estimates of the susceptibility of landscape ecosystems to fire disturbance using Landtype Association maps as initial units of investigation. Each Landtype Association polygon was assigned to a fire regime category based on associations of ecological factors known to influence fire regimes. Spatial statistics were used to interpolate fire points recorded by the General Land Office. Historical fire rotations were determined by calculating the area burned for each category of fire regime and dividing this area by fifteen (years) to estimate area burned per annum. Modern fire rotations were estimated using data on fire location and size obtained from federal and state agencies. Landtype Associations networked into fire regime categories exhibited differences in both historical and modern fire rotations. Historical rotations varied by 23-fold across all fire rotation categories, and modern forest fire rotations by 13-fold. Modern fire rotations were an order of magnitude longer than historical rotations. The magnitude of these changes has important implications for forest health and understanding of ecological processes in most of the fire rotation categories that we identified.This revised version was published online in May 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

基于食物安全视角的我国畜产食品进口依赖性风险评价

新时期下,保障我国畜产食品供给安全是保障我国食物安全的重要内容之一,而“适度进口”是保障我国畜产食品供给安全的重要途径之一。如何才算“适度进口”,需对畜产食品进口的相关风险进行分析方可评判。运用进口依赖性评价模型对我国猪肉、鸡肉、羊肉、牛肉、鲜牛奶的进口依赖性风险进行分析发现,上述5种畜产食品均存在进口依赖性风险。其中,猪肉的风险来自美国、德国、丹麦、西班牙和加拿大;鸡肉的风险来自美国、巴西、阿根廷和波兰;羊肉的风险来自澳大利亚、新西兰和乌拉圭;牛肉的风险来自乌拉圭、澳大利亚、新西兰、阿根廷和加拿大;鲜牛奶的风险来自德国、法国、新西兰和澳大利亚。为降低我国畜产食品进口依赖性风险,短期内应采取畜产食品进口市场多元化策略以及用进口饲草料替代进口畜产食品的进口方式;长期应在保障“口粮安全”的前提下,调整农业结构,大力发展草地农业,减少对国际市场的依赖性。     

绿豆种质资源农艺性状的因子分析及综合评价

为合理利用绿豆种质资源,本研究以55份绿豆种质资源为材料,通过对其10个农艺性状进行因子分析及聚类分析。结果表明:10个农艺性状的变异系数为8.57%~47.19%,其中单株粒重变异系数最大,生育期变异系数最小。将10个农艺性状简化为结荚数因子、高度因子、粒数因子、粒重因子和生育期因子5个独立的主因子,该5个主因子可以反映原始信息的86.340%。经综合得分排序,评选出10份性状优良的绿豆种质资源。聚类分析将55份种质资源的10个数量性状分为3大类,类群I、类群II、类群III分别包括22份、7份、26份材料。结合综合评价和聚类分析认为,在黑龙江绿豆生产中,‘安绿8号’、‘佳木斯黄绿豆’、‘冀绿1号’可作为品种选育的改良亲本,也可大面积种植利用。     

Assessing the sustainability of cropping systems in single- and multi-site studies. A review of methods

The multiple new challenges facing agriculture require the development of innovative cropping systems with high environmental, economic and social performances. Many research programmes are currently focusing on the design of such cropping systems. Some include the multicriteria assessment of cropping systems by diverse methods and approaches. Some of these research programmes are supported by experimental or farmers’ networks, generating new opportunities for data analysis and raising new research and methodological questions. In this article, we provide an overview based on a review of 56 articles, comparing the various methods for sustainability assessment in single- and multi-site studies. Articles were classified according to three characteristics: (i) their objectives, (ii) the study design (single- vs. multi-site), (iii) the type of system assessed (fictitious vs. real). Our analysis was structured around four items: (i) the variables used to describe cropping systems and production situations and the use of these variables in the assessment process, (ii) the criteria and associated indicators assessed, (iii) the methods used to explore multiple aspects of the performance of cropping systems, (iv) the use of reference values. We identified key points to be taken into account in multi-site studies. The application of the proposed guidelines to experimental networks should facilitate the identification of high-performance cropping systems and the identification of the drivers of cropping system performance.     

线性红利界下带干扰风险模型的破产概率

考虑到保险公司在实际经营中收益所具有的不确定性和分红策略，建立一类具有线性红利界和带随机扰动的双复合Poisson风险模型，利用鞅方法给出模型关于破产概率的一个定理及上界．     

陕西市售液态牛奶中黄曲霉毒素M1污染水平分析及风险评估

【目的】全面评价陕西液态牛奶中黄曲霉毒素M_1(aflatoxin M_1,AFM_1)污染状况及其产生的健康风险。【方法】于2018年上半年在陕西全省范围内城市、县城及乡镇采集液态奶样本111份进行检测,结合中国居民营养与健康状况监测数据库中液态奶消费数据,对不同人群通过液态奶对AFM_1的摄入水平进行分析。采用联合国粮农组织/世界卫生组织食品添加剂联合专家委员会(JECFA)确立的AFM_1暴露引发肝癌风险公式和安全限值两种方法,分析描述相关健康风险。【结果】111份液态奶样本中95份检出AFM_1,但均未超过国家限量标准,平均含量为23.95 ng/kg。不同性别年龄组中,一般人群对AFM_1的平均摄入量为0.004～0.082 ng/(kg·d),肝癌风险为0.010～0.225例/(亿人·年),消费人群对AFM_1平均摄入量为0.041～0.272 ng/(kg·d),肝癌风险为0.113～0.745例/(亿人·年)。【结论】陕西液态牛奶中AFM_1污染引发的健康风险总体较低,但需对部分低年龄段(2～11岁)液态奶消费人群AFM_1膳食暴露引发的健康风险予以关注。     

钝化材料对农田土壤Cd形态及微生物群落的影响

为探讨钝化剂对土壤Cd生态风险和土壤微生物群落结构的影响，通过田间试验，在轻度Cd污染水稻田中施加钝化剂（海泡石、石灰、秸秆生物炭和螯合铁肥）开展相关研究。结果表明：施加钝化剂使土壤pH值提高0.17~1.29个单位，Cd的可交换态减少29.79%~64.48%。施加海泡石、石灰、秸秆生物炭使得微生物群落的多样性指数（ACE、Chao1、Shannon）增加，但螯合铁肥不利于微生物群落的生长，多样性指数均减少。土壤微生物群落随钝化剂的施加发生显著改变，变形菌门、厚壁菌门、拟杆菌门相对丰度有所增加，芽单胞菌门、绿弯菌门、螺旋体菌门相对丰度均降低。相关性分析表明，pH和Cd是影响微生物群落的关键因素，此外Cd形态也对微生物群落产生了影响。研究表明，施用钝化剂可降低土壤中重金属Cd的潜在生态风险，改变土壤微生物群落结构，使多种微生物群落得到抑制或增强。