Responses of subshrub sagebrush rangeland in North-Western China to changes in livestock numbers and rainfall over 10 years (2004–2013)

Seriphidium transiliense, or subshrub sagebrush, is one of the most important forage resources for livestock in many arid lands, but such resources have been threatened by overgrazing for a long time. A 2013 vegetation survey of an original sagebrush rangeland (2400?ha) in the Tianshan Mountains revealed that nearly half of the area once under sagebrush has been replaced by annual species. This is due to the continual and rapid increase in livestock numbers over the past 30?years. Three smaller sites with different grazing scenarios: no grazing (Site N), a decline (Site 1), and an increase (Site 2) in livestock numbers, were selected to monitor recent changes (from 2004 to 2013) in vegetation biomass and the degree of dominance by sagebrush. Supplanting happened at Site 2 but little occurred at Site 1. There were significant differences between Site 2 and Site 1 in standing biomass in Spring and Summer, but no significant differences in Summer between Site 1 and Site N. The supplanting of sagebrush marks the completion of a dynamic process – in which rainfall plays a crucial role – of damage to sagebrush from heavy grazing in drought years and its rehabilitation by light grazing in some good years. Plant biomass loss was greatest when the land was first subjected to heavy grazing. Sagebrush tends to exist as a sole-dominant species rather than a companion species in sagebrush communities. This suggests that sagebrush continued to survive in pockets where grazing pressure had declined.     

基于农作制分区的1985—2015年中国小麦生产时空变化

Comparing spatio-temporal variation characteristics of China’s wheat production, yield, sown area and yield-area-contribution in different farming zones in the past 30 years could help improving wheat planting layout and adjusting planting structure. Concentration index, rate of change, moving of gravity and resolution of yield-area-contribution were used to analyze spatio-temporal changes of China’s wheat production and yield-area-contribution based on county wheat production statistics including sown area, production and yield from 1985 to 2015. The wheat sown area decreased obviously in Northeast farming region, Northwest farming region and South farming region and increased rapidly in Huang-Huai-Hai farming region and Yangtze Plain farming region. In Huang-Huai-Hai farming region, the concentration indexes of Haihe Plain farming region, Huang-huai Plain farming region and Fenwei Basin farming region reached to 20.64%, 25.77%, and 21.65% respectively in 2015. Wheat production increased significantly by more than 48 milliontons in Huang-Huai-Hai farming region, and nearly 8 million tons Yangtze Plain farming region but decreased by more than 2.6 million tons in Northeast farming region. In Huang-Huai-Hai farming region, wheat production was concentrated in Haihe Plain farming region, Huang-huai Plain farming region and Yuxi Hill farming region. The average wheat yield continuously improved during the study period, Huang-Huai-Hai farming region and Northwest farming region had the yield increase up to 103.5 kg hm ^-2 and 92.9 kg hm ^-2 each year. Wheat yield in Yuxi Hill farming region, Fenwei Basin farming region and Haihe Plain farming region was relatively high in Huang-Huai-Hai farming region. The yield-reduced area was mainly caused by the decreasing of sown area, while the yield-area-contribution rate was different in yield-increased area. Yield-dominant counties were reduced, area-dominant counties were increased and yield-area-dominant counties were relatively steady. In production increased area, yield-dominant and yield-area-dominant counties were the main types in Huang-Huai-Hai Farming region, area-dominant and yield-area-dominant counties were the main types in Yangtze Plain farming region. Chinese wheat production was increasingly concentrated in Huang-Huai-Hai farming region which has high and rapid increase of wheat yield over the past three decades. Haihe Plain farming region, Huang-huai Plain farming region and Fenwei Basin farming region were the most concentrated areas in Huang-Huai-Hai farming region for wheat production during this period. Wheat yield and sown area jointly promoted the increase of wheat production in Huang-Huai-Hai farming region, wheat sown area was the crucial factor to increase wheat production in Yangtze Plain farming region, especially in the north of Jiangsu, Anhui province and greater part of Xinjiang.     

基于耦合协调度的大理河流域径流和输沙关系分析

深入研究流域水沙关系变化是解决黄河流域高质量发展关键问题的重要科学途径之一。自20世纪50年代以来,黄河中游地区实施了大规模的水土保持工程,径流和输沙显著减少,水沙关系发生变化。该研究利用Mann-Kendall趋势检验法分析了1960—2015年来大理河流域的径流输沙变化趋势,并构建基于耦合协调度理论和Pettitt检验方法的径流输沙关系变异诊断方法,识别大理河流域径流和输沙关系的突变点,并通过Copula方法进行验证。结果表明:1)大理河流域径流输沙在月尺度和年尺度呈现显著的下降趋势;2)大理河流域径流和输沙关系在1996年发生显著突变;3)径流输沙关系发生突变后,径流和输沙均明显减少,输沙的减少幅度比径流的减少幅度高29.19个百分点,径流对输沙贡献程度下降幅度为5.10%,单位径流的输沙能力降低;4)淤地坝建设和植被恢复是造成大理河流域水沙变化的主要因素,修建淤地坝和恢复植被对减少泥沙具有积极作用。研究成果可以为进一步深化理解大理河流域水沙关系变化以及水土流失治理提供依据。     

天津市产业碳排放的影响因素及贡献

[目的] 综合考虑“水—土—能—碳”相互关系，研究产业碳排放的影响因素及贡献，为天津市减排决策制定提供一定依据。[方法] 对天津市产业碳排放进行测算，将水土资源因素引入Kaya恒等式，运用LMDI模型计算产业碳排放各影响因素的贡献。[结果] 2004—2018年天津市各产业碳排放均呈现上升趋势；整体来看，水资源经济产出、人口数量促进天津市各产业碳排放，且前者为主要促进因素，水土资源因素抑制各产业碳排放，碳排放强度促进农业碳排放，而抑制其他产业碳排放，人均用地面积抑制农业碳排放，而促进其他产业碳排放；水土资源因素对各产业碳排放影响的变化与水土资源匹配度变化有较好的一致性，单位用地面积用水量越多，其对碳排放的促进作用越大。[结论] 为实现节能减排，应发展节水产业，优化城市水土资源开发利用，发挥水土资源因素对碳排放的抑制作用。     

黑土区田块尺度下地形影响作物长势机理分析

为揭示作物长势及水肥运移的空间分异规律,探究田块尺度内作物长势与地形变化的关系,以东北典型黑土区东兴农机合作社为研究区,沿南北垄向提取高精度数字高程模型(Digital elevation model,DEM)与归一化植被指数(Normalized differential vegetation index,NDVI)信息,构建地形指标,分析NDVI的空间变异性。结果表明,坡型凸凹程度越明显,NDVI的空间变异性越大;同类坡型中阴坡NDVI的空间变异性与坡型凸凹程度呈负相关;坡度在±0.03范围内,作物长势好,空间变异性低;以坡度绝对值高于0.04的坡度均值与其对应直线距离所占整条直线的比值作为自变量,构建多元逐步回归模型,进行回归分析,可以解释大豆NDVI决定系数为0.965 2、高粱NDVI决定系数为0.888 3的空间变异性。不同地理空间的地形与成土母质差异显著,通过分析研究区内地形对作物长势的影响规律,可为田块尺度地形的分析提供借鉴,有助于指导农户合理地进行水肥分配。     

重庆市主要农产品供给能力分析

根据《重庆统计年鉴》数据,选取粮食、蔬菜、油料、猪肉和水产品等5个指标,利用相关农业、经济社会统计数据和盈余度计算方法,对重庆市主要农产品供给能力进行分析。结果表明:2003~2012年,重庆市粮食、蔬菜和猪肉产品的供给能力处于稳定的状态,水产品的供给能力有一定程度的下降,油料产品缺口不断扩大;5大功能区之间的盈余情况在结构和空间布局上都存在较大差异。为保障农产品供给,需要继续加大力度支持农业生产。     

伊春森林生态旅游产业对本地经济发展的贡献分析

结合伊春2001~2012年的旅游收入和国民生产总值,从直接经济贡献和间接经济贡献两个角度并利用一元线性回归模型分析了伊春森林生态旅游产业对经济发展的贡献。从显性角度分析得出森林生态旅游产业已经成为伊春的战略性支柱产业;从隐性角度分析表明伊春每l元的旅游收入能够导致伊春GDP增长约为4.273元人民币,而且发展呈上升的趋势。     

黄淮海旱作区土壤压实度空间分布特征及其影响因素

为探究旱作区农田不同层次土壤压实度特征,基于2017年采集的255个土壤样品,运用Mann-Kendall突变检验法、地统计学和冗余分析等方法,探究黄淮海旱作区耕作层和压实层空间分布特征,分析不同层次的土壤压实度的空间变异特性及影响因素,并提出了最佳土壤压实度范围。研究结果表明:旱作区耕作层和压实层厚度均呈现由北向南递增的趋势,耕作层最大厚度可达22.50 cm,最低仅有10.21 cm;压实层厚度最大可达17.50 cm,最小值也达到7.50 cm。从不同层次来看,耕作层和压实层的压实度具有空间分布一致性,耕作层压实度高值区主要分布在河南省东部、安徽北部及河北北部地区,最大值可达87.68%以上,低值区则主要集中在山东西北部以及河北南部地区。和压实层压实度相比,耕作层压实度是影响粮食产量的主要因素,且在70%～80%时获得较高产量。分析表明,土壤压实度受到年降水量、平均气温、土壤自然属性等环境因子和机械耕作等人为因素综合作用的影响。研究结果可为黄淮海农田土壤压实情况的改善及管理措施的科学制定提供理论支撑。     

天气衍生品的运作机制与精算定价

天气衍生品是为了规避天气风险给天气敏感行业带来收入的不稳定性而兴起的创新型风险管理工具，其实质是通过衍生合约对天气风险进行分割、重组和交易的证券化产品。不同于传统金融衍生品，天气衍生品的价值取决于温度、湿度或降雨量等天气指数。本文在分析天气衍生品市场发展的基础上，重点探讨了最常见的天气期货和天气期权的运作机制及其精算定价。     

祁连山南麓高寒灌丛GPP变化特征及对生长季积温的响应

全球气候变化背景下气温逐渐升高,将会对陆地生态系统碳循环产生重要影响。研究利用2003?2016年的涡度相关系统观测资料,研究了祁连山南麓高寒灌丛生长季(5月?9月)总初级生产力(gross primary productivity,GPP)在不同时间尺度上对生长季有效积温(growing season degree days,GDD)的响应,对于研究气候变暖对高寒生态系统碳循环的影响有重要意义。结果表明:高寒灌丛生态系统在生长季的月GPP、GDD都表现为先增大后减小的单峰变化趋势,都在7月或8月达到峰值,在5月达到最小值。在整个生长季尺度上,GPP与GDD具有较高变异性,但整体上表现为逐渐增加的趋势(P<0.05)。2003?2016年整个生长季GPP与GDD的均值分别为507.11 g·m^?2和975.93℃。在月尺度和生长季尺度上,GPP与GDD都呈显著正相关关系(P<0.05)。但是,通过比较生长季每个月GPP与GDD的关系发现,5、9月的GPP与GDD没有显著相关性(P>0.05),而在7月相关性最为显著(P<0.01)。整体上看,高寒灌丛生态系统植被的总初级生产力与热量条件表现为正相关关系,由此说明在全球气候变暖的背景下,青藏高原高寒灌丛生态系统植被的光合生产能力将会提高。