China-PEARL和PRZM-GW模型潍坊市场景农药地下水风险评估研究

农药地下水暴露模型China-PEARL已开始在我国农药地下水风险评估中应用。本文利用China-PEARL潍坊市场景数据,为PRZM-GW构建了潍坊市场景。在潍坊市场景下,利用2个模型计算了56种农药在5种作物上共计145种施用方式下的预测环境浓度(PEC)值,利用商值法(RQ)进行风险评估。结果显示有8种农药共13种施用方式在潍坊市场景下存在不可接受的地下水风险。其中,2个模型均显示有不可接受风险的农药是多菌灵和氟磺胺草醚。2个模型PEC值比较结果显示,PRZM-GW的农药风险评估趋势与China-PEARL一致性高,从而验证了China-PEARL的可信性。模型PEC值影响因素分析显示,土壤有机碳分配系数(Koc)对2个模型输出影响最大,可将Koc>400L·kg^-1作为判断某种农药预测浓度<0.1μg·L^-1经验性指标。2个模型的PEC值和土壤好氧半衰期的对数呈线性关系,当土壤好氧半衰期>10d时,模型的PEC值随土壤好氧半衰期的增大而迅速增高。水解半衰期为PRZM-GW模型输入项,决定了PRZM-GW模型模拟的农药浓度随年变化趋势。水中溶解度是China-PEARL的输入项,但对模型PEC值影响很小。     

海南省红树林湿地生态系统服务功能价值评估

运用《森林生态系统服务功能评估规范》的相关标计量参数、指标和共识,对海南省红树林生态系统服务功能的总价值进行评估,并对不同市(县)红树林生态服务价值进行分析。研究表明,海南省红树林生态系统服务功能核算成经济后的总价值为26828.08万元,单位面积价值为6.58万元·hm-2。其中,有机物生产价值2780万元,固土保肥价值34.54万元,气体调节价值6241.62万元,积累营养物质价值490.48万元,净化环境价值5221.23万元,防灾护提价值1645.03万元,生物多样性保育价值6112.60万元,生态旅游价值4302.59万元。     

福州鼓山茶园生态系统服务功能价值评估

选取3、8、25 a常规茶园和30 a有机茶园为研究对象,结合相关统计调查数据和试验地样品实测数据,从物质生产功能、固碳释氧功能、营养物质贮存功能、涵养水源功能、水土保持功能5项指标对福州鼓山茶园生态系统服务功能价值进行评估。结果表明,4种茶园单位面积生态系统服务功能价值表现为:30 a有机茶园(112551.49元·hm-2·a-1)>25 a常规茶园(85670.05元·hm-2·a-1)>8 a常规茶园(75431.86元·hm-2·a-1)>3 a常规茶园(74050.83元·hm-2·a-1),其中生态系统服务功能间接经济价值表现为:25 a常规茶园(17199.74元·hm-2·a-1)>30 a有机茶园(9846.02元·hm-2·a-1)>8 a常规茶园(6961.55元·hm-2·a-1)>3 a常规茶园(5580.52元·hm-2·a-1),且茶园生态系统服务功能价值随植茶年龄增加而增大,有机栽培有利于提高茶园生态系统服务功能价值。     

Using fishers' anecdotes, naturalists' observations and grey literature to reassess marine species at risk: the case of the Gulf grouper in the Gulf of California, Mexico

Designing fishing policies without knowledge of past levels of target species abundance is a dangerous omission for fisheries management. However, as fisheries monitoring started long after exploitation of many species began, this is a difficult issue to address. Here we show how the ‘shifting baseline’ syndrome can affect the stock assessment of a vulnerable species by masking real population trends and thereby put marine animals at serious risk. Current fishery data suggest that landings of the large Gulf grouper (Mycteroperca jordani, Serranidae) are increasing in the Gulf of California. However, reviews of historical evidence, naturalists’ observations and a systematic documentation of fishers’ perceptions of trends in the abundance of this species indicate that it has dramatically declined. The heyday for the Gulf grouper fishery occurred prior to the 1970s, after which abundance dropped rapidly, probably falling to a few percent of former numbers. This decline happened long before fishery statistics were formally developed. We use the case of the Gulf grouper to illustrate how other vulnerable tropical and semi‐tropical fish and shellfish species around the world may be facing the same fate as the Gulf grouper. In accordance with other recent studies, we recommend using historical tools as part of a broad data‐gathering approach to assess the conservation status of marine species that are vulnerable to over‐exploitation.     

Enigmatic hotspot of crayfish diversity at risk: Invasive potential of non‐indigenous crayfish if introduced to New Guinea

1. The large island of New Guinea has a rich indigenous astacofauna represented by numerous parastacids from the genus Cherax. The western half of the island is part of Indonesian territory.
2. Indonesia is known to be the main exporter of ornamental crayfish globally, and certain New Guinean species are exploited as ornamentals within the international pet trade. Moreover, one non‐indigenous species has been previously recorded being cultured in Java, Indonesia. This species, the North American Procambarus clarkii, is a vector of crayfish plague, the disease that is lethal to most parastacids. This population has already tested positive for the disease.
3. As the transport of non‐indigenous crayfish within the Indonesian territory is not restricted, their introduction to New Guinea can be expected. The Indonesian market was therefore surveyed for ornamental crayfish and their environmental suitability evaluated, as represented by temperature during the drought and rainy seasons in New Guinea.
4. Four North American and one Australian species were found advertised for sale. One of them, P. clarkii, was assessed as the most damaging species, followed by other North American species. A total ban on the culture and transport of the highest risk crayfish species in Indonesia and Papua New Guinea is recommended.

     

土地利用总体规划对区域生态价值的影响——以广东省始兴县为例

运用生态价值服务功能模型定量分析土地利用规划导致的区域生态价值功能变化,在此基础上分析土地利用总体规划给区域环境带来的影响。研究表明:根据规划标准,始兴县生态系统服务功能价值由2005年的35.46亿元减少到2020年的35.42亿元,生态价值净减少0.04亿元,减少量只占2005年的0.11%,区域生态服务价值基本保持稳定。     

基于信息扩散理论的中国粮食主产区水旱灾害风险评估

水旱灾害频发是影响中国粮食安全供给的主要制约因素。该文基于信息扩散理论的风险分析模型,根据1986－2008年期间检索得到的共享数据平台资料,对中国13个粮食主产省（区）的水旱灾害开展风险评估,综合对比分析粮食主产区的水旱灾害风险状况及其空间分布特点。结果表明,中国13个粮食主产省份面临的水旱灾害风险压力均较大,且旱灾风险要大于水灾风险。粮食主产区的水灾风险空间分布格局为南部长江中下游省份多以中度风险为主,东北部和中部黄淮海地区主要为低风险区,而旱灾风险则是东北部和中部黄淮海地区以高、中风险为主,南部长江中下游省份的风险相对较低。     

农村基础设施投资效益评价的关键指标遴选

农村基础设施对中国的农业增长、农村经济发展及脱贫意义重大。但中国目前尚没有完善相关设施的评价体系,尤其此类评价体系中的评价指标更是缺少。该研究旨在建立一套客观评价农村基础设施投资效益的关键指标体系（CAIs）。针对农村基础设施投资效益评价指标,通过对政府、高校和研究机构、咨询企业专家展开两轮问卷调查,进而采用蒙特卡罗模拟（MCS）分析问卷调查反馈的数据,并根据模拟结果运用模糊集合理论选取关键评价指标,总共选取了8个关键指标。研究表明,MCS可以有效克服数据源不足的缺陷,而模糊集合理论可以应对问卷调查中专家意见的模糊性。遴选出的8个关键指标与已有的零星研究相印证,为政府在农村基础设施投资提供依据。     

基于GIS的绿色农产品基地适宜性评价

建立和完善绿色农产品基地适宜性评价方法,提高评价结果的实用性和准确性,是实现农产品安全的根本保障。研究依据基地认证者、规划者、生产者3种评价主体实际需求,分别引入污染潜在风险指标和经济状况指标,建立面向不同评价主体需求的多种主导因子评价指标体系,并借助GIS的空间分析方法进行定量评价,最后以北京大兴区为例进行了案例分析研究。结果表明,基地与工矿企业距离、与居民地距离等潜在污染风险对基地适宜性限制大,且不同评价主体下建立不同指标体系使评价更具针对性,利用GIS功能可提高效率,评价结果可视化程度好,具有很强的     

基于GIS和Logistic模型的香榧生态适宜性评价

研究香榧栽培的生态适宜性将为香榧的引种、扩种和区划提供理论依据。该研究在GIS支持下,以地学数据库为基础,以logistic 回归模型为手段,利用高分辨率遥感影像、数字高程模型以及土壤、气象和实地调查等资料对研究区香榧生态适宜性开展精确评价。研究结果表明,香榧栽培高度适宜区和中度适宜区累计占总面积的61.7%,其中高度适宜区面积达183 hm2,占总面积的11.4%,说明研究区香榧栽培发展潜力巨大。该评价结果为当地香榧资源产业化发展提供了科学依据。