Factors Associated with Grassland Bird Species Richness: The Relative Roles of Grassland Area, Landscape Structure, and Prey

The factors responsible for widespread declines of grassland birds in the United States are not well understood. This study, conducted in the short-grass prairie of eastern Wyoming, was designed to investigate the relationship between variation in habitat amount, landscape heterogeneity, prey resources, and spatial variation in grassland bird species richness. We estimated bird richness over a 5-year period (1994–1998) from 29 Breeding Bird Survey locations. Estimated bird richness was modeled as a function of landscape structure surrounding survey routes using satellite-based imagery (1996) and grasshopper density and richness, a potentially important prey of grassland birds. Model specification progressed from simple to complex explanations for spatial variation in bird richness. An information-theoretic approach was used to rank and select candidate models. Our best model included measurements of habitat amount, habitat arrangement, landscape matrix, and prey diversity. Grassland bird richness was positively associated with grassland habitat; was negatively associated with habitat dispersion; positively associated with edge habitats; negatively associated with landscape matrix attributes that may restrict movement of grassland bird; and positively related to grasshopper richness. Collectively, 62% of the spatial variation in grassland bird richness was accounted for by the model (adj-R² = 0.514). These results suggest that the distribution of grassland bird species is influenced by a complex mixture of factors that include habitat area affects, landscape pattern and composition, and the availability of prey.     

青藏高原东部雨季降水量分布模型的建立

采用高分辨率的3"数字高程模型资料和青藏高原东部102个常规气象观测站5～9月份的降水资料,根据降水随高度分布将站点分为3类,采用多元逐步回归的方法,建立了青藏高原40年(1961-2000年)雨季逐年降水量和经度、纬度、海拔高度、坡度、坡向、开放度等地理、地形因子之间的关系模型,估算了青藏高原地区降水量的空间分布.结果表明:建立的关于青藏高原降水量与诸因子之间方程的相关性显著,相对误差在20%,平均相对误差在4.4%之内,估算模型的相关系数均通过置信度为0.95 的检验;并且地理地形因子对40年平均和逐年降水量分布特征的影响较为稳定,其归一化的模拟系数基本控制在±1之间,这对定量分析和评价站点稀少、地形复杂的高原降水有重要意义.     

Density estimates of rural dog populations and an assessment of marking methods during a rabies vaccination campaign in the Philippines

We estimated the population density of dogs by distance sampling and assessed the potential utility of two marking methods for capture-mark-recapture applications following a mass canine rabies-vaccination campaign in Sorsogon Province, the Republic of the Philippines. Thirty villages selected to assess vaccine coverage and for dog surveys were visited 1 to 11 days after the vaccinating team. Measurements of the distance of dogs or groups of dogs from transect lines were obtained in 1088 instances (N = 1278 dogs; mean group SIZE = 1.2). Various functions modelling the probability of detection were fitted to a truncated distribution of distances of dogs from transect lines. A hazard rate model provided the best fit and an overall estimate of dog-population density of 468/km² (95% confidence interval, 359 to 611). At vaccination, most dogs were marked with either a paint stick or a black plastic collar. Overall, 34.8% of 2167 and 28.5% of 2115 dogs could be accurately identified as wearing a collar or showing a paint mark; 49.1% of the dogs had either mark. Increasing time interval between vaccination-team visit and dog survey and increasing distance from transect line were inversely associated with the probability of observing a paint mark. Probability of observing a collar was positively associated with increasing estimated density of the dog population in a given village and with animals not associated with a house. The data indicate that distance sampling is a relatively simple and adaptable method for estimating dog-population density and is not prone to problems associated with meeting some model assumptions inherent to mark-recapture estimators.     

家蚕产卵量的基因效应参数估计

用产卵量差异较大的两个近交系782和Ekp作亲本,配制了F1、F2正反交及F1与两亲本的回交B1和B2,加上两亲本P1和P2共8个世代,采用多世代平均值的多元回归分析方法对产卵量的基因效应参数进行了估计,得到了如下结果：（1）建立了分析家蚕产卵量的常染色体基因加性、显性和性染色体基因加性效应的非二体遗传模型,并通过实际数据检验表明产卵量遗传符合这个模式;（2）产卵量的遗传主要取决于常染色体上基因加性效应,其次是性染色体基因加性效应,显性效应很小。     

Small area estimations of proportion of forest and timber volume combining Lidar data and stereo aerial images with terrestrial data

Abstract

Methods for small area estimations were compared for estimating the proportion of forest and growing stock volume of temperate mixed forests within a district of a member state (canton) in Switzerland. The estimators combine terrestrial data with remotely sensed auxiliary data. By using different model types, different sources of auxiliary data and different methods of processing the auxiliary data, the increase in estimation precision was tested. Using the canopy height derived from remote sensing data, the growing stock volume and the proportion of forest were estimated. The regression models used for the small area estimation provided a coefficient of determination of up to 68% for the timber volume. The proportion of plots correctly classified into forest and non-forest plots ranged between 0.9 and 0.98. Models calibrated over forest area only resulted in a maximal coefficient of determination of 37%. Even though these coefficients indicate a moderate model quality, the use of remote sensing data clearly improved the estimation precision of both the proportion of forest and the growing stock volume. Generally, Lidar data led to slightly higher estimates compared to data from aerial photography. It was possible to reduce the variance of the estimated proportion of forest to nearly one tenth compared with the variance based on the terrestrial measurements alone. Similarly, the variance of the growing stock volume could be reduced to one fourth as compared with the variance based solely on the terrestrial measurements.     

变量筛选方法对郁闭度遥感估测模型的影响比较

比较基于偏最小二乘回归的Bootstrap方法与传统的平均残差平方和(RMSq)准则所选变量建立模型的精度差别.结果表明:Bootstrap方法是一种更优秀的变量筛选方法,比RMSq方法精度提高约5%;而且它不受变量多带来的运算困难的限制,更便于实际应用.     

抗旱应急预留水量需求估测研究

为了提高抗旱应急管理能力,对区域降水量的波动设置一个可容忍的上下波动幅度,降水量波动超过设定的容忍幅度时,需要运用预留水量进行吞吐调节。依据不同调节方式,提出两种抗旱应急预留水量需求估测模型。以辽宁省为例,利用国家气象信息中心提供的辽宁省8个气象观测站近54年(1956-2009年)降水量数据,分别估测不同调节方式下抗旱应急预留水量需求量并进行了比较分析。上述方法为抗旱应急预留水量需求估测提供了新的思路,为合理配置应急预留水量奠定了重要基础,并且具有可操作性。     

THE INFLUENCE OF TYLOSES ON THE MANUFACTURE OF MATCHES

This article deals with the results of time studies of pruning P. radiata from 22 ft. to 35 ft. with pole saws. The influence on pruning time of mean diameter and number of branches removed in the pruning operation, number of cones removed and time of day is investigated and a multiple regression equation, expressing the relationship between pruning time and these variables, is computed. A taper table is prepared and used to investigate the effect of pruning on the formation of knot-free timber. The economics of high-pruning is discussed.     

论搞活山地流转机制是林业发展之路

搞活山地流转机制，推行林业适度规模经营，是由当前社会大环境和林业自身的特点所决定的。本文在论述搞活山地使用权流转机制时调动林农积极性、发展林业和振兴经济的作用的同时，进一步分析了山地使用权流转的各种形式，并指出评价山地使用权流转形式好坏的标准，是坚持“三个有利于”的标准。     

基于实码遗传算法的河流水质模型的参数估计

针对理想条件下采用解析法往往导致水质参数估计较大误差的问题，以及针对含有多参数的二维水质模型的参数估计问题，具体介绍了采用有限单元法和实码遗传算法求解二维水质模型未知参数的基本步骤，对水质参数(包括纵向、横向弥散系数和衰减系数)分别进行编码，通过计算机模拟浓度输出，并与实测值比较从而得出最优的水质参数估计值．算例表明，采用有限单元法-遗传算法估计河流水质模型的参数是可行的．