| 抗旱应急预留水量需求估测研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 周晔,吴凤平,陈艳萍.抗旱应急预留水量需求估测研究[J].中国农村水利水电,2012(6):51-54. |
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| 作者姓名： | 周晔 吴凤平 陈艳萍 |
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| 作者单位： | 河海大学商学院,南京,210098 |
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| 基金项目： | 教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目，中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助，省国家重点学科培育建设点技术经济及管理“水资源技术经济及管理”项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 为了提高抗旱应急管理能力,对区域降水量的波动设置一个可容忍的上下波动幅度,降水量波动超过设定的容忍幅度时,需要运用预留水量进行吞吐调节。依据不同调节方式,提出两种抗旱应急预留水量需求估测模型。以辽宁省为例,利用国家气象信息中心提供的辽宁省8个气象观测站近54年(1956-2009年)降水量数据,分别估测不同调节方式下抗旱应急预留水量需求量并进行了比较分析。上述方法为抗旱应急预留水量需求估测提供了新的思路,为合理配置应急预留水量奠定了重要基础,并且具有可操作性。
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| 关 键 词： | 抗旱应急预留水量 降水量距平百分率 需求估测 |
Research on Reserved Water Demand Estimation for Drought Emergency |
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| ZHOU Ye,WU Feng-ping,CHEN Yan-ping.Research on Reserved Water Demand Estimation for Drought Emergency[J].China Rural Water and Hydropower,2012(6):51-54. |
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| Authors: | ZHOU Ye WU Feng-ping CHEN Yan-ping |
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| Institution: | (Business School,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China) |
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| Abstract: | In order to improve drought emergency management,this paper sets a tolerable range of precipitation fluctuation.When fluctuation value exceeds the tolerable range,emergency reserved water is needed for regulation.According to different regulation modes,two models are put forward with corresponding constraints.Taking Liaoning Province for example,according to time series of annual precipitation from 8 weather stations in this province from 1956 to 2009 supplied by National Meteorological Information Center,drought emergency reserved water demand is estimated and compared between two control modes.The method gives a new thought to estimate reserved water demand for drought emergency and lays a foundation for allocating drought emergency water with operation ability. |
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| Keywords: | drought emergency reserved water precipitation anomaly percentage demand estimation |
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