论技术创新项目的价值评估

从技术创新项目评估方面探讨如何支持技术创新。首先阐明传统的项目评估方法已不适合技术创新项目的评估,然后引入技术创新项目期权定价理论,并用一个案例说明技术创新项目定价理论的实际应用,最后得出研究结论。     

原料基地的战略价值研究--期权定价模型的应用

在市场风险下 ,加工企业控制一定比例的原料供应 ,相当于购买了一种期权 ,这种期权对林工联合体有着不可忽视的战略价值 ,它可大大减少加工企业的市场风险暴露。本文应用期权定价模型对这种战略价值进行定量研究 ,敏感分析表明 :当木材市场价格水平、长期资本利率水平越高 ,木材价格波动率越大 ,加工企业拥有原料基地的战略价值越大。期权定价模型的应用为正确认识原料基地的战略价值 ,分析木材限额采伐政策等提供了良好的基础。     

Application of real options theory to forestry investment analysis

This paper demonstrates the utility of the real options approach to forestry investment analysis. The main objectives are to discuss the real option theory and show how it can be adopted to model uncertainty and managerial flexibility in forest management and investment. Secondly, we show how to calculate the option values of selected options that may be available to managers of forest industry firms. The paper provides an empirical application, which compares a forestry investment using the static Faustmann model and the real options approach. Four management options are used for the real options approach: an option to delay reforestation, an option to expand the size of the wood processing plant, an option to abandon the processing plant if timber prices fall below a certain level or due to corporate take-over, and multiple options that evaluated all three options together. All options were evaluated using the binomial option-pricing model, where timber values are assumed to follow a multiplicative binomial process. The results show that the Faustmann analysis rejected the investments as unprofitable, while the option analysis showed that all three options were highly valuable if exercised. When real options are considered, the traditional Faustmann model for assessing the profitability of a forestry investment may fail to provide an adequate decision-making framework because it does not properly value management's ability to adjust to shocks in the economy, as well as risks and uncertainty.     

农业生产风险评估及农业保险费率厘定的不确定性：研究进展和破解之道

鉴于准确厘定农业保险费率在保障农业保险持续健康发展中的重要性,20世纪80年代起学界围绕农业生产风险的科学评估和农业保险精算开展了大量研究,但尚不完善,评估结果仍存在较大不确定性。为提高农业保险定价的可信度,推动我国农业保险精算技术的发展,本文作者对国内外学界关于农业生产风险评估和农业保险费率厘定的最新研究进行了综述,在文献梳理的基础上分析了农业保险费率厘定不确定产生的根源及应对之策。研究发现,数据的稀缺性、技术问题的模糊性以及风险评估和保险定价的空间不匹配性是造成农业生产风险评估和农业保险费率厘定结果存在不确定性的3个主要原因,提高农业保险定价结果的可信度成为国外学者最新研究的努力方向。在大数据时代,降低农业保险费率厘定不确定性、提高农险定价信度最终需要依靠大数据技术,融合多种数据资源,但农业保险的精算定价并不能完全解决逆选择问题,还需要提供更加多样更具有弹性的农业保险产品进行配合。     

水价综合改革驱动下农业水价形成机制研究——以湖北荆门为例

随着我国农业水价综合改革的全面推进,一些地方逐步形成了适合当地情况的农业水价机制,但不少地方还在进行探索。荆门市作为南方丰水地区农业水价综合改革试验区,经过三年多的探索,初步形成了由农业水权制度、水价定价模式、计价方式、水费征管以及节水奖励等为主要内容的农业水价机制,但也存在一些问题,亟须完善。在此基础上提出了相关对策建议,旨在对南方丰水地区复杂地貌条件下农业水价形成机制提供一定的借鉴。     

基于信用评级的商业银行贷款风险定价模型

建立了一个基于信用评级体系的风险定价模型.通过模型证明一笔贷款的价格不仅与借款人的预期违约率和贷款回收率有关,而且与借款人在贷款期间信用等级的变化有关.贷款的价格(利率)与借款人信用恶化的程度和发生的概率正相关.利用实际数据求出了各信用等级借款人的利率、风险价值和经济资本等参数.     

Indirect Regulation Pricing Methods of Public Utility

The author analyses the advantages and disadvantages of common indirect regulation pricing methods of public utility goods. It is pointed out that it results in high trade-cost and A-J effect binging in an excess of investment when capital yield method be used. It is not reasonable enough in setting PRI-X of PRI-X pricing method. An integrated indirect regulation pricing method is put forward which is to form a two-tier incentive mechanics both in expanding producing ability and improving efficiency. In initial stages of new public project, capital yield method should be used in order to activate investment motive. Upper-limit pricing method should be used in anaphase in order to improve the producing efficiency.     

具有保健功能农产品定价策略分析——以蜂蜜为例

为掌握蜂蜜市场的价格特征,探讨具有保健功能农产品的定价策略,蜂产业体系课题组2012—2014年对北京、杭州、青岛、郑州、成都市蜂蜜市场开展了调查。基于调查数据文章分析了蜂蜜市场的价格特征及其原因,对不同销售地点同质蜂产品价格进行对比;并结合蜂产业体系经济岗课题组在全国11个省开展的蜂产品生产固定观察点数据分析蜂蜜生产成本构成,探讨蜂蜜价格持续上涨的原因;最后以蜂蜜为例,对保健功能农产品的定价策略进行分析。结果表明:各类蜜种蜂蜜产品价格都略有上升,但巢蜜、中蜂蜂蜜、椴树蜜等产量少、蜜源稀缺的品种上升幅度大;各城市在售同种蜂蜜、国产与进口蜂蜜价差拉大。要解决高质量原料收购价格低,市场上产品质量良莠不齐的问题,关键在于形成从原料蜜收购到终端市场的优质优价机制,产品信息透明,提高顾客对蜂蜜保健功能的认知度。     

Model and Computation of Reload Stock Options with Barriers

Reload stock option is proposed as a executive stock option plan having some drawbacks, and prove that it is necessary to treat the reload option as a barrier option with two barriers. The improved reload option pricing model is established which the long incentive and reload feture of executive stock option are included. The pricing formula of the new option and the simulation analysis of it are discussed.     

Research on Market Targeting Model of Selecting Manager and Cooperation Mechanism in Commercial Bank Based on Stock Option

Selecting manager by market and improving team cooperation efficiency are two basal tasks to construct an effective human resource management system of commercial bank in China,but there are the limitations the traditional methods in explaining the players' cooperation.The paper constructs a market targeting model of selecting manager of commercial bank and a game model of team cooperation based on stock option,and then the talent identification mode and team cooperation mechanism in commercial bank are established.It is concluded that talented managers is selected but talent-less is refused owing to stock option incentive mechanism,and employee and managers holding stock plan is an incentive force to whole team if residual remains of shareholder is less than half team residual remains.