四川省长江上游水土保持工程生态经济综合评价

小流域水土流失治理策略及其生态经济评价是水土保持学科的热点问题,以整个工程实施范围作为对象的研究成果鲜见报道。该文以四川省长江上游水土保持重点防治综合治理第五期工程整个治理区域为研究对象,以县级行政区内的小流域综合治理区域为评价单元,选取反映项目区社会经济和生态状况的46个指标,通过运用主成分分析法和多元线性回归分析,得出13种治理措施主成分,并对治理前后的生态经济状况进行综合评价和排序,建立了生态经济综合发展水平位次变化与治理措施主成分之间的多元线性回归模型。结果表明：不同的治理措施、治理措施实施的范围大小、实施的力度和强度是影响其对于生态经济发展水平贡献大小的主要原因。     

The importance of gallery forests in the tropical lowlands of Costa Rica for understorey forest birds

Rivers and streams lined by narrow forest strips are common in the lowland countryside of south-western Costa Rica. We studied the importance of these gallery forests for understorey birds, especially forest species. Using mist-nets, we captured 1110 birds belonging to 90 species between June and September 2007 at 16 sites spread equally over four habitat types: forest interior, forest margin, gallery forest connected to closed forest, and isolated gallery forest. Though isolated gallery forests had the greatest number of expected species in total, they supported the lowest number of forest-specialist species, lower even than connected gallery forests. Granivorous birds showed an increase from forest to isolated gallery forest, all other feeding guilds however showed no change. The studied habitats differed from each other in their faunal composition. Assemblages of three species groups categorised by their habitat preferences (forest specialists, forest generalists, non-forest species) showed nested distribution patterns across the four habitats. There was no significant difference in the proportion of birds with brood patches or of recaptures across the studied habitat types, leading to the assumption that birds not only use gallery forests for movement and foraging but also for reproduction. Though of limited conservation value for most forest understorey birds, at least for a small fraction of forest species gallery forests constitute an important secondary habitat. More significantly, they can form corridors or stepping stones that allow movements within the matrix of human-dominated habitats, and represent an important landscape component benefiting total bird species richness in the Costa Rican countryside.     

线性回归模型参数的BC估计

对线性回归模型的参数给出了一种新的有偏压缩估计，简称ＢＣ估计，并证明了ＢＣ估计的许多优良性质。     

季节性冻融区地下水位预测方法研究

为预测河套灌区冻融区全年地下水位变化过程,采用统计学方法,研究了冻融期地下水位与地表气温间的关系,建立了二者间的线性模型,结合非冻融期水量均衡模型,建立了改进型水量均衡模型,通过优化求解方法确定模型参数。结果表明,模型计算埋深与实测埋深拟合效果较好,提出的改进型水量均衡模型可较好地预测冻融区全年地下水位变化过程,解决了冻融期间地下水模拟难题,方法简单精确,具有很好的实用性。     

CO2与氮肥交互作用的番茄光合速率预测模型

为了实现CO2气肥和营养液氮肥含量的准确调控，建立了作物整个生长周期的光合速率预测模型。以番茄为实验对象，设置了3个CO2浓度和3个营养液含氮量的交互处理实验，使用LI-6400型便携式光合速率仪采集叶室内的环境信息和单叶净光合速率。利用多元线性回归方法建立了番茄整个生长周期的光合速率预测模型，模型的相关系数为0.885，调整后的决定系数为0.782。实验结果表明，该模型具有较高预测精度，可为温室CO2气肥浓度和营养液氮肥含量的调控提供理论依据。     

Thermal degradation modeling of flexural strength of wood after exposure to elevated temperatures

Abstract

Wood is being used heavily in single-family residential dwellings. Therefore, it is important to categorize their response when exposed to elevated temperatures for a sustained period of time. An important aspect of structural fire design is to assess postfire residual strength of existing structures. This study addresses this issue by developing models to predict strength degradation of wood after exposure to elevated temperature. The objectives were to (a) study the effect of exposure time on bending strength [Modulus of Rupture (MOR)] of wood at elevated temperatures, (b) interpret any relationships between different temperature and time of exposure using kinetics and a statistical approach, and (c) compare the two approaches. Two hundred thirty-two samples in total were tested in flexure as a function of exposure time and several temperatures. MOR of wood decreased as a function of temperature and exposure time. Rate of degradation was higher at higher temperatures. These results were fit to a simple kinetics model, based on the assumption of degradation kinetics following an Arrhenius activation energy model with apparent activation energy of 37.4 kJ/mol. A regression-based statistical model was also developed. The kinetics-based model fit the data better with one less parameter and predictions consistently matched the observed values, making the model preferred over the regression approach.     

Application of the Tweedie distribution to zero-catch data in CPUE analysis

We focus on the zero-catch problem of CPUE (catch per unit effort) standardization. Because the traditional CPUE model with a log-normal error structure cannot be applied in this case, three methods have often been utilized as follows:

(1) Ad hoc method adds a small constant value to all response variables.

(2) Catch model with a Poisson or negative-binomial (NB) error structure.

(3) Delta-type two-step method such as the delta-normal model (after estimating the ratio of zero-catch using a logit or probit model, a model such as CPUE log-normal or Catch-Poisson is applied to CPUE without zero-data).

However, there are some statistical problems with each of these methods.In this paper, we carried out the CPUE standardization mainly using the Tweedie distribution model based on the actual by-catch data (silky shark, Carcharhimus falciformis, in the North Pacific Ocean caught by Japanese training vessels) including many observations with zero-catch (>2/3rd) and tuna fishery data as a target (yellowfin tuna, Thunnus albacares, in the Indian Ocean caught by Japanese commercial vessels) where the ratio of zero-catch is not so high (<1/3rd). The Tweedie model is an extension of compound Poisson model derived from the stochastic process where the weight of the counted objects (i.e., number of fish) has a gamma distribution and has an advantage of handling the zero-catch data in a unified way.We also compared four candidate models, the Catch-NB model, ad hoc method, Delta-lognormal model (delta-type two-step method) and Tweedie distribution, through CPUE analyses of actual fishery data in terms of the statistical performance. Square error and Pearson's correlation coefficient were calculated based on the observed CPUE and the corresponding predicted CPUE using the n-fold cross-validation.As a result, the differences in the trend of CPUE between years and model performance between the ad hoc method and Tweedie model were found to be not so large in the example of yellowfin tuna (target species). However, the statistical performance of Tweedie distribution is rather better than Delta-lognormal model, the Catch-NB distribution and ad hoc method in the example of silky shark (by-catch species). Standardized CPUE year trend of ad hoc method was found to be quite different from that of the Tweedie distribution and other two models. Model performance of the Tweedie distribution is good judging from the 5-fold cross-validation using the fishery data if including many zero-catch data such as by-catch species.     

关于哈尔滨机场高速公路设计中几个问题的探讨

本文通过哈尔滨机场高速公路测设中所遇到的平面线形、纵断面设计、排水以及旧路利用等问题 ,提出了在测设中的解决方法 ,为以后的设计提供了有益依据。     

Microsoft Excel sensitivity analysis for linear and stochastic program feed formulation

Sensitivity analysis is a part of mathematical programming solutions and is used in making nutritional and economic decisions for a given feed formulation problem. The terms shadow price and reduced cost are familiar linear program (LP) terms to feed formulators. Because of the nonlinear nature of stochastic programming (SP), different methods and terminology are used to define shadow prices and reduced costs. The Lagrange multiplier is used instead of shadow price to describe marginal value of nutrients. Reduced gradient is used instead of reduced cost to describe the price at which ingredients not used in the formulation would be included in the solution. A spreadsheet feed problem was set up with 11 ingredients and 11 constraints. The LP and SP solutions were determined using the Excel Solver algorithm. Two problems compared LP and SP solutions at 50 and 69% probabilities for the protein constraint. All other constraints were held at a 50% probability. Results for the 50% probability comparison showed that the feed formulations, as expected, were the same for both LP and SP. Wheat was not included in the solution. The LP reduced cost and the SP reduced gradient for unused wheat were equivalent. The LP shadow prices and the SP Lagrange multipliers were equivalent. Results for the 69% probability problem showed a difference in the formulated rations. The LP reduced cost was $34.25 and the SP reduced cost was $34.52, showing the respective amounts that the cost of wheat would have to be reduced to be included in the solution. The shadow price and the Lagrange multiplier were $2.73 and $2.71, respectively, for the amount of increase in diet cost that could be expected by a unit of change in the protein requirement. Some differences in precision were noted with the results. A caveat is that, because of nonlinearity, sensitivity analysis for SP is valid only for the single point of the optimal solution.     

新疆博尔塔拉河干流段水量入,出关系分析

本研究运用线性系统的理论和单、双序列的频谱分析方法，分析了新疆博尔塔拉河干流段温泉站入流量、博乐站出流量的自谱特征和互谱关系。文中提出的几点结论可供流域水资源计算及评价参考