冻结期与融解期潜水蒸发系数模拟研究

根据河套灌区的长期观测资料,确定非冻融期参数后,由稍作修改的水量均衡方程及优化求解方法计算地下水埋深,对冻融期潜水蒸发系数公式逐步进行分析改善,最后在冻结期和融解期采用增加常数项的指数形式的潜水蒸发计算公式,模拟计算的地下水埋深与实际观测结果拟合最好。根据模拟结果,冻融期的潜水蒸发系数仅用地下水埋深来表示,其它影响因素反映在参数中,模型简单,方便实用。     

基于CAR-SVM模型的季节性冻融区地下水埋深预测

准确预测地下水埋深是灌区水资源管理的重要依据.考虑到地下水埋深在时间序列上呈现滞后性和非线性,耦合了多变量时间序列CAR与支持向量机SVM,构建了CAR-SVM地下水埋深预测模型.为了提高模型在冻融期的模拟效果,构建了季节性冻融灌区地下水埋深拟合模型--CAR-SVM(T-TF)模型.模拟结果显示,只考虑冻融期气温的CAR-SVM(T-TF)模型优于考虑全年气温的CAR-SVM(T)模型及不考虑气温的CAR-SVM模型.CAR-SVM(T-TF)模型在全灌区地下水埋深的模拟结果:在验证期模型决定系数R^{2为0.954,冻融期R2为0.973;RMSE均小于0.090 m,模型精度较高.将全灌区得到的3阶CAR-SVM(T-TF)模型结构用于灌区内5个灌域地下水埋深模拟,模型在各灌域均有较好的适用性.}     

平罗县不同地下水位分布区地下水埋深变化特征分析

【目的】明确平罗县不同水位分布区的地下水埋深变化特征,更好地指导合理用水和防治土壤盐渍化。【方法】选取2007—2017年平罗县不同地下水位分布区内9眼地下水位观测井的月观测数据以及引黄水量、地下水取水量、水稻种植面积、降雨量和年平均气温等数据,分析了平罗县不同地下水位分布区地下水埋深变化特征及其影响因素。【结果】平罗县地下水埋深年内变化幅度大于年际,随月份呈"W"形变化,随年份呈平缓波浪形变化,5—8月和11月—次年1月,各观测点地下水埋深变化曲线呈聚集状态,其他月份则呈离散状态;不同地下水位分布区地下水埋深年际间变异系数表现为:高地下水位中地下水位低地下水位,年内无明显规律。与中、低水位分布区相比,高水位分布区地下水埋深不稳定;从各观测点年均地下水埋深与降雨量、平均气温、水稻种植面积、引黄水量和地下水取水量相关性来看,平罗县高、中水位分布区地下水埋深变化更多地受引黄水量影响,水稻种植面积的增加对降低高水位分布区地下水埋深起到了积极作用。【结论】建议平罗县高、中水位盐碱地的改良应减少引黄水量、利用浅层地下水或农田退水灌溉以降低地下水位。     

改进GA-BP模型在地下水位埋深预测中的应用

地下水位埋深预测是有效实施节水措施、合理控制地下水位的前提与保证。鉴于地下水位埋深与引水量、降水量、蒸发量、排水量、地下水开采量等因素之间存在复杂的非线性关系,提出了基于改进遗传算法的BP神经网络模型用于地下水位埋深预测,弥补了BP神经网络本身易陷入局部最优值的缺陷;同时在遗传算法中改进了自适应交叉、变异概率算法,提高了神经网络的逼近能力和预测精度,并采用了Matlab软件实现了BP神经网络编程。通过不同模型在河套灌区解放闸灌域2000-2013年地下水位埋深模拟与预测,结果表明改进遗传算法优化的BP神经网络模型具有较高的预测精度和收敛速度,在其他地区地下水位埋深预测中也具有较好的适应性。     

三江平原地下水位的预测——基于RPROP的BP神经网络方法

鉴于三江平原地下水位预测对该地区农林经济的重要性,详细介绍了RPROP的BP神经网络算法思想和数学模型;综合三江平原地下水位埋深的具体情况,建立了弹性BP神经网络地下水位埋深预测模型,而且以单口井为例做了具体的预测和分析.结果证明:使用该方法预测三江平原地下水位埋深值具有准确性和实效性,该理论和方法在地下水动态预测方面具有较好的应用前景.     

不同时间尺度下冻融灌区地下水埋深CAR模型优选

为提高冻融灌区地下水埋深的预测精度,探索不同时间尺度数据源对地下水埋深预测的影响,以河套灌区永济灌域为研究区域,针对地下水埋深在时间序列上表现的滞后性和非线性,建立了不同时间尺度(月、季、年) CAR模型,并进行了不同输入变量CAR模型的差异性分析。结果表明:季尺度数据源CAR模型拟合效果明显优于月尺度数据源CAR模型和年尺度数据源CAR模型,拟合效果较好的季尺度数据源CAR模型的决定系数(R~2)、NashSutcliffe系数(E_(ns))和均方根误差(RMSE)分别为0.936、0.934和0.046 m,较拟合效果较差的月尺度数据源CAR模型各项指标分别提高了11.30%、11.86%和降低了32.35%。仅考虑冻融期气温的CAR模型明显优于考虑气温的CAR模型和不考虑气温的CAR模型。冻融灌区最优地下水预测模型为季尺度数据源且仅考虑冻融期气温的CAR模型,其R~2为0.941,E_(ns)为0.940,RMSE为0.044 m,模拟精度较高。     

玛纳斯河下游灌区地下水埋深变化特征及成因分析

根据新疆玛纳斯河下游莫索湾灌区具有代表性的14个长期观测井多年(1998—2010年)地下水位数据,运用水量均衡法和Mann-Kendall突变检验法分析了灌区地下水埋深动态特征及成因。结果表明,研究区除147团地下水埋深略有减小外,其他各区地下水埋深均呈增大趋势,其中150团地下水埋深增大最为明显。灌区地下水埋深变化存在时空差异,并且在2004年之后的不同年份出现了变化趋势转折,其根本原因是受到了灌溉入渗和地下水开采的影响。灌区地下水埋深年际、年内变化基本都呈现出人工-自然双重影响下的变化特征,年内变化最为明显,且不同区域影响地下水位变化的主次因素有所不同。总体而言,人类活动已经成为玛纳斯河下游灌区地下水埋深变化的主要驱动力,其次是自然因素,其中灌溉入渗、地下水开采和潜水蒸发是影响研究区地下水埋深变化的主要因素。     

基于ELM模型的浅层地下水位埋深时空分布预测

选用石家庄平原区补排因子的多种组合为输入参数,利用28眼水井的实测资料作为预测目标值,首次建立基于极限学习机(Extreme learning machine,ELM)的地下水位埋深时空分布预测模型,讨论补排因子在不同缺失情况下对模型精度的影响;利用Arc GIS分析误差空间分布趋势,并与常用的三隐层BP神经网络模型进行对比。结果表明:基于水均衡理论的ELM地下水位埋深模拟模型能够准确反映人类和自然双重影响下地下水系统的非线性关系,模型输入因子中缺失降水量或开采量的模拟结果均方根误差(RMSE)比缺失其余因子的RMSE高2.00倍及以上,同时模型有效系数(E_(ns))和决定系数(R~2)进一步降低;与BP模型相比,ELM模型可使RMSE减小43.6%,误差区间降低46.4%,Ens和R2提高至0.99,且RMSE在空间相同区域上均明显呈现出ELM模型小于BP模型;ELM模型在南部高误差区的移植精度(RMSE低于1.82 m/a,E_(ns)高于0.95)高于BP模型(RMSE超过3.00 m/a,Ens低于0.85);因此,影响地下水位埋深的主导因素是降水量和开采量,且ELM模型在精度、稳定性和空间均匀性上较优,移植预测效果较好,可利用已知资料推求区域空间内其余未知水井的浅层地下水位埋深;该模型可作为水文地质参数及补排资料缺乏条件下浅层地下水位埋深预测的推荐模型。     

变权组合预测模型在兴平市地下水动态预测中的应用

针对地下水埋深变化离散性程度较大的兴平市,利用兴化漏斗区2000-2011年的地下水位埋深数据,采用基于指数预测法、线性回归预测法及灰色预测法的变权组合预测方法,对其进行地下水位埋深的模拟和预测。通过对兴平市地下水动态的预测,对比变权组合预测方法和单纯运用某一种单项预测方法在精度上的差别,证明了变权组合预测模型具有可行性和较高的精度,并在此基础上对兴平市未来地下水埋深进行了预测。     

内蒙古河套灌区冻融土壤水分迁移简化模型

根据内蒙古河套灌区义长灌域1990—1999年和2002—2007年14个冻融循环的实测资料,由水量平衡原理,估算了冻结过程中地下水向冻层的迁移量,以及消融过程中冻层水分对地下水的补给量和包气带含水率的变化。提出了通过冻结初期地下水埋深、最大地下水埋深和融通时地下水埋深3个实测实验数据,估算冻融循环中水分迁移量的方法,并提出了用经验公式拟合正冻期地下水降深、最大冻深和消融期地下水位上升高度的方法。     

大安灌区地下水动态特征及灌区实施后的生态环境响应

针对大安灌区存在的水资源短缺、土地退化以及新一轮土地整理可能带来的生态环境问题,在广泛收集该区多年地下水动态资料的基础上,进行了地下水动态特征分析,运用GM（1,1）模型预测了水位埋深。为分析灌区实施后对生态环境的影响,分别计算了灌区建成后引起的地下水位变化回渗量、地下水位上升值,得出了大安灌区水位最高上升1.11m,小于该区地下水位年变幅3.5m,采用计算的水位埋深进行了次生盐碱化发生的可能性分析。     

基于SWAP模型的毛乌素沙地地下水埋深与天然植被关系研究

进行了基于SWAP模型模拟的毛乌素沙地不同水文年地下水埋深的预测研究。根据预测出的不同水文年的地下水埋深的动态变化,预测出试验区在该水文年的天然植被生长状况与地下水埋深的关系,即芦苇出现频率峰值所对应的地下水埋深为1.45 m;赖草出现频率峰值所对应的地下水埋深为1.90 m。并用2006年的实测资料进行了检验,得出SWAP模型可以用于推求该地区不同水文年条件下的天然植被生长状况。     

Simulation of pesticide concentrations in groundwater using Agricultural Drainage and Pesticide Transport (ADAPT) model

A water quality model for subirrigation and subsurface drainage, ADAPT (Agricultural Drainage And Pesticide Transport), was tested with field data collected under various water table management practices near Ames, IA. Atrazine and alachlor concentrations at various soil depths for water table depths of 30, 60, and 90 cm were simulated using ADAPT model for corn growing seasons of 1989 through 1991. Daily pesticide concentrations in groundwater predicted by the model were compared with available observed data for the same site. Predicted values of atrazine and alachlor concentrations in groundwater decreased when shallow water table depths were maintained in the lysimeters. Similar trends were noticed with the observed data. Reasonable agreement was obtained between the observed and predicted values of atrazine and alachlor for 1989 to 1991. However, in few cases, results showed a wide variation between observed and predicted values. Because no observed data was available for pesticide concentrations in the unsaturated zone, predicted results could not be compared. Based on our investigation, it appears that ADAPT may be used for predicting subsurface water quality under water table management practices; however, further validation is necessary with more field observed data from similar studies before wider application of this model is made.     

一种根据时段平均流量和水位的水

根据实测的时段平均流量和水位的资料，建立了水均衡计算模型，通过简单的理想算例和实际观测资料，验证了模型的正确性和可靠性。同时以某灌区为例，利用前10年的实际月平均观测资料，反求了模型参数，并对后10年进行了水位计算，结果表明，模型简单、实用，可以用于大区域长时段的地下水均衡分析研究。     

Development and credibility assessment of a metamodel relating water table depth to agricultural production

Phreatic groundwater pumping is affecting water availability for crops in areas with a shallow water table. This can reduce crop growth and so affect farm income. There is a need for a generic and transparent method to assess the agricultural damage caused by water table drawdown. This paper proposes such a method that consists of ‘damage tables’ relating agricultural production losses to the groundwater regime for different soil/crop combinations found in Northern Belgium. The damage tables are constructed based on numerous simulations with the agrohydrological model SWAP, in which the bottom boundary conditions are gradually changed to reflect different groundwater regimes. The credibility of the resulting metamodel is assessed in three ways: using (1) field data, (2) an existing local expert system for land suitability assessment and (3) literature applying to a wider region. Field data of actual transpiration for two grasslands do not systematically deviate from the model predictions. This provides some credibility to the claim that the model captures the processes determining evapotranspiration and agricultural production. The local expert system allows us to evaluate the range of groundwater regimes where optimal growth is expected for maize and grassland across different soil types. Diverging predictions of the optimal groundwater regime between the metamodel and the local expert system can be explained in terms of differences in assumptions underlying both models. One notable limitation of the damage tables is that only direct physiological stress is reckoned while indirect effects of wet conditions (decreased accessibility of the terrain, soil structural damage) may also limit growth on soils with a water table near the surface. Further comparison with literature data focused on two issues: the contribution of groundwater to evapotranspiration and the extinction depth, i.e., the depth at which groundwater no longer contributes to evapotranspiration. This comparison revealed that damage tables developed for our area of interest are only valid under similar climatic conditions for the following two reasons: they assume a relatively small groundwater contribution to evapotranspiration, which is typical for humid climates, and they take into account temporal variations in plant characteristics such as root depth, which is also climate dependent.     

应用DRAINMOD对测坑控制排水条件下地下水位的模拟分析

为研究控制排水措施对农田地下水位的影响,在湖北省荆州市四湖工程管理局丫角排灌试验站进行了测坑控制排水试验,并利用DRAINMOD模型对不同试验方案下地下水位进行数值模拟。模拟结果表明：在棉花生育期内,地下水位模拟结果和实测结果的一致性较好,该模型可有效地模拟预测水测坑控制排水条件下地下水位特性;控制排水措施能有效调控地下水位．     

不同位置秸秆覆盖条件下土壤水盐运动实验研究

以地下水与土壤水动力学理论为基础,通过对不同地下水埋深不同位置秸秆覆盖试验资料分析,建立了土壤水分运动数学模型,并进行了数值模拟,试验实测数据与模型计算值吻合较好,说明所建立的模型是可行的。并以此为基础,分析了不同地下水埋深不同位置秸秆覆盖土壤含盐量,得出地表以下30 cm处秸秆覆盖的土壤含盐量大于地表表层秸秆覆盖的土壤含盐量,这为新疆地区控制潜水蒸发改良盐碱地研究提供了可靠的基础依据。     

Impacts of water saving on groundwater balance in a large-scale arid irrigation district,Northwest China

Water saving practices are essential for sustainable use of water resources in semiarid regions. To understand the impacts of different water saving measures on groundwater resources, the Hetao Irrigation District in Northwest China was chosen in this study. Based on the data from 1991 to 2010, a groundwater balance model was calibrated and validated. The simulation results showed that irrigation-induced infiltration (92 % of the total groundwater recharge) and groundwater evaporation (92 % of the total groundwater discharge) were the primary factors controlling groundwater table fluctuations during irrigation seasons. The impacts of different water saving scenarios on groundwater balance components were then evaluated. The results revealed that the conjunctive use of water resources was the most effective way to improve water use efficiency (reducing surface water diversions by 52 %) and the depth to groundwater table increased by up to 79 cm. However, deeper groundwater tables may have a negative effect on crop growth due to reduced upward fluxes of groundwater into root zones. Therefore, future studies are needed to evaluate the impacts of different water saving measures on both water resources and crop yields. The results of this study provide further insights into effectively managing water resources in water-limited agricultural areas.     

乌梁素海水环境容量分析

【目的】研究乌梁素海的水环境容量特征和探索水环境容量与入湖水质水量间的响应关系。【方法】采用零维模型分别计算并分析了乌梁素海冰封期与非冰封期的水环境容量,基于水文实际条件,分析入湖水量对出口断面污染物质量浓度的影响。【结果】冰封期湖泊的自净容量小于非冰封期时的自净容量,且冰封期的氮和有机物污染物的环境容量远小于非冰封期。【结论】非冰封期引入的黄河水和农田退水会导致湖泊氮磷水环境容量下降。有机物污染物的水环境稀释容量会因为黄河引水增加。     

Exploring options for water savings in lowland rice using a modelling approach

Water-saving irrigation regimes are needed to deal with a reduced availability of water for rice production. Two important water-saving technologies at field scale are alternately submerged–nonsubmerged (SNS) and flush irrigated (FI) rice. SNS allows dry periods between submerged soil conditions, whereas FI resembles the irrigation regime of an upland crop. The effects of these regimes on the water balance and water savings were compared with continuously submerged (CS) and rainfed (RF) regimes.The crop growth model ORYZA2000 was used to calculate seasonal water balances of CS, SNS, FI, and RF regimes for two locations: Tuanlin in Hubei province in China from 1999 to 2002 during summer seasons and Los Baños in the Philippines in 2002–2003 during dry seasons. The model was first parameterized for site-specific soil conditions and cultivar traits and then evaluated using a combination of statistical and visual comparisons of observed and simulated variables. ORYZA2000 accurately simulated the crop variables leaf area index, biomass, and yield, and the soil water balance variables field water level and soil water tension in the root zone.Next, a scenario study was done to analyse the effect of water regime, soil permeability, and groundwater table depth on irrigation requirement and associated rice yield. For this study historical weather data for both sites were used.Within seasons, the amount of irrigation water application was higher for CS than for any of the water-saving regimes. It was found that groundwater table depth strongly affected the water-yield relationship for the water-saving regimes. Rainfed rice did not lead to significant yield reductions at Tuanlin as long as the groundwater table depth was less than 20 cm. Simulations at Los Baños with a more drought tolerant cultivar showed that FI resulted in higher yields than RF thereby requiring only 420 mm of irrigation.The soil type determined the irrigation water requirement in CS and SNS regimes. A more permeable soil requires around 2000 mm of irrigation water whereas less permeable, heavy soil types require less than half of this amount. We conclude that water savings can be considerable when water regimes are adapted to soil characteristics and rainfall dynamics. To further optimize water-saving regimes in lowland rice, groundwater table dynamics and soil permeability should be taken into account.