基于Copula函数的长春市106年来的干旱特征分析

干旱是主要的自然灾害之一,它对环境和经济有着显著的影响。文中根据长春气象站106年的气象数据,基于标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)定义了干旱的两个主要特征:干旱历时和干旱程度,并利用Clayton Copula函数构造了干旱历时和干旱程度的联合分布函数,进而计算了干旱历时和干旱程度在不同组合条件下的联合超越概率、联合重现期、同现重现期及条件重现期。结果表明:(1)干旱历时和干旱程度的联合超越概率值随干旱历时和程度的值增大而呈现减小趋势,且递减速度逐渐变小;(2)单变量边缘分布的重现期介于联合重现期和同现重现期之间;(3)干旱历时(干旱程度)的条件重现期与干旱程度(干旱历时)的值成正比。研究结果可以为吉林省干旱风险的评估、水资源规划和管理提供有用的信息。     

明代河南地区干旱灾害的时空特征分析

通过对明代(1368年-1644年)277年河南地区干旱灾害史料的整理、分类与统计分析,从频次和强度两个方面探究河南地区干旱灾害的时空分布特征.结果表明:河南地区在明代共发生干旱灾害88次,其中1级旱灾35次,2级大旱灾48次,3级特大旱灾5次.在时间分布上,明代河南地区干旱灾害发生频次尽管有阶段性起伏,但总体来看,呈现出前期少,中后期多的特点,其中后期尤为突出;在发生季节上,干旱灾害多集中于春、夏季,秋季次之,冬季最少.在空间分布上,明代河南地区干旱灾害频次的区域分布与干旱灾害强度的区域分布也存在着一定程度的一致性,豫北地区既是干旱灾害易发区,也是干旱灾害最严重的地区;豫西地区干旱灾害发生频次偏低,但干旱灾害强度偏大;地处西南的南阳府(范围大体同于现在的唐白丹区)干旱灾害发生最少且强度最低.     

基于Copula函数的河北省夏大豆干旱风险特征研究

干旱是河北省夏大豆生育期内的主要农业气象灾害之一。选用1991—2020年河北省夏大豆种植区97个气象站的气温、降水、日照时数、风速等资料，以作物水分亏缺距平指数划分干旱等级，基于游程理论提取干旱事件的历时和烈度，采用Copula函数分析干旱事件的同现重现期，以及干旱事件同现重现期与大豆单产之间的关系。结果表明：（1）该区干旱历时、干旱烈度的高值区位于邢台、邯郸，干旱频次的高值区位于石家庄西部、保定西部、廊坊北部，说明高频次的区域不一定是长历时、强烈度干旱过程的分布区域。（2）河北省夏大豆干旱历时以威布尔分布和对数正态分布为主，而干旱烈度以广义极值分布和对数正态分布为主。（3）Frank-Copula函数为河北夏大豆干旱历时和干旱烈度的最优联合分布函数。（4）时长为3旬的干旱事件重现期最小，重旱的高风险区主要分布在廊坊、保定、石家庄中西部、沧州中东部、衡水、邢台、邯郸；时长为11旬的各等级干旱仅邯郸中东部为相对高风险区，其它大部地区为低风险区，即时长为11旬的干旱事件出现的可能性较小。（5）大豆单产与干旱时长、干旱烈度的相关系数75%的站点通过了P<0.05的显著性检验,与重现期的相关系数所有站点均通过了P<0.05的显著性检验，甚至1个站点通过了P<0.001的显著性检验,说明重现期更能反映干旱事件对产量的影响，长历时、高烈度干旱事件的重现期低值区为干旱的高风险区。     

关中地区清代干旱灾害研究

通过对清代关中地区历史资料的搜集、整理和数学分析,对该时期关中地区的干旱灾害等级及其成因进行了研究.结果表明:关中地区从1644-1912年的267年中,共发生干旱灾害103次,平均每2.6年发生1次;轻度旱灾37次,占旱灾总数的35.9%;中度旱灾发生44次,占旱灾总次数的42.7%;大旱灾发生17次,占旱灾总数的16.5%;特大旱灾发生5次,占干旱灾害总数的4.8%;从清代早期到晚期干旱灾害呈现出增加的趋势,并具有显著波动变化特征.清代干旱灾害变化可分为2个主要阶段,在1644-1770年的126年为旱灾较低发生期,在1770-1909年的141年为旱灾较高发生期.年降水量的明显减少和降水分配不均是该区发生干旱灾害的主要原因.     

1644-1911年宁夏西海固干旱灾害时空变化及驱动力分析

通过对历史文献资料的收集、统计和分析,对1644-1911年西海固地区干旱灾害的时间变化、空间变化、等级序列以及驱动力因子进行了研究。结果表明:1644-1911年西海固地区有记载的干旱灾害82次,平均3.27年发生一次;旱灾以春旱和夏旱最多,占发生次数的38.5%和25.3%;西海固地区的干旱灾害划分出四个等级序列,共发生轻度旱灾24次,占旱灾总数的29.3%;发生中度旱灾50次,占旱灾总数的60.97%;发生大旱灾和特大旱灾共8次,占旱灾总数的9.73%;西海固发生干旱灾害可分为5个阶段:旱灾的多发期包括:1710-1770年代、1800-1860年代(1820年代除外)。少旱灾期包括:1640年代-1700年代、1780-1790年代、1870-1910年代(1890年代除外);这一时期的中期西海固发生干旱灾害发生频率较高;旱灾高发区主要集中在西海固与陕西交接的南部,其中固原发生干旱的频次远远高于其他地区;影响干旱灾害时空变化的驱动力因子包括气候、生态和人口因子,其中气候因子起到了决定的作用。     

1951-2014年辽宁省气象干旱时空特征分析

利用辽宁省56个国家气象观测站1951-2014年逐日降水量和气温资料,依据当前气象干旱监测业务中使用的气象干旱综合监测指数(MCI),使用国家标准《气象干旱等级》中对干旱事件的定义,分析讨论了1951-2014年辽宁省气象干旱事件的时空分布特征和变化规律。结果表明:1)辽宁省近64年来气象干旱事件出现的频率高、影响范围广,特别是2000年后气象干旱范围呈急剧上升趋势;春旱和秋旱影响范围增长速率最大,春旱的影响范围最广;2)辽宁省气象干旱的发生频率分布有很强的地域特征,辽西地区是气象干旱高发区;3)四个季节都有可能发生气象干旱,其中春旱发生频率最高,夏旱次之,秋旱发生频率相对较小;4)辽宁省出现的气象干旱事件强度(持续时间)呈现全省普遍偏大(偏长)或者普遍偏小(偏短)的一致特征,辽中地区是易发生强干旱并持续的敏感区。     

基于EMD的我国受旱面积波动的多时间尺度的分析

我国是一个干旱及旱灾频繁发生的国家,近年来干旱已成为影响我国社会经济可持续发展的重要制约因素。文中应用经验模态分解(EMD)方法分析了1950-2006年全国干旱灾害受灾面积波动情况。结果表明:(1)干旱灾害受灾面积存在准3年、准8.5年、准14年左右特征时间尺度的周期性波动;(2)各时间尺度的周期性振荡的贡献率中以准3年时间尺度的受灾面积振荡的贡献最大,说明干旱灾害受灾面积波动以准3年时间尺度为主;(3)从各时间尺度的振荡来看,大致分三个阶段,80年代中期以前,干旱灾害受灾面积的波动频率较慢,周期长,振幅大;80年代中期以后,波动频率变快,周期缩短,振幅减小;而90年代中期之后,振幅又有所增加。从各时间尺度振荡的趋势看,干旱灾害受灾面积仍处在增加阶段;而且近年来干旱灾害受灾面积振荡的幅度增大,说明干旱灾害强度加剧,频度增加。因此,应认识和了解旱灾发生和发展规律,并进行有效的防治,尽可能减小旱灾对社会经济发展造成的损失。     

中国气象干旱的空间格局特征(1951-2011)

中国是一个农业大国,也是一个旱灾频繁的国家,研究气象干旱可为防范农业旱灾风险提供科学依据。利用1951-2011年中国585个气象站点的日降水数据,计算了不同季度的降水距平百分率,并确定气象干旱等级,编绘了各季节的中旱、重旱、特旱发生频率的空间分布图。结果表明:(1)我国各季气象干旱发生频率空间分布,总体呈现北多南少、西多东少的格局;春季和冬季发生频率较高、夏季发生频率最低,其中春季中旱和特旱的高频区面积占全国比例分别达到了46%和34.2%,冬季尤其是特旱高频区面积占全国比例甚至超过了70%,而夏季仅有中旱存在高频区,且面积较小;(2)华北地区的春季中旱,东部地区(四川除外)的秋季中旱,西南(云南)、华南(广东)、长江中游地区的冬季中旱,需重点防范。     

不同截取水平下咸阳市干旱特征

根据1959-2005年咸阳市11个测站的降水资料,采用统计分析法,推导出干旱历时的概率分布参数计算公式,取实测序列的均值作为截取水平,对咸阳市11个测站的降水序列进行干旱历时概率分布参数的求解.然后,采用全历时重现期法,对咸阳市干旱历时重现期在两种不同干旱等级(平水年和偏枯年)对应的截取水平进行了精确计算.对于干旱烈度及其重现期,则假定实测序列服从正态分布,且该序列干旱烈度服从Gamma分布,同样,选取两种截取水平,计算咸阳市11个测站降水序列的干旱烈度概率分布参数以及干旱烈度重现期.结果表明:采用偏枯状态对应的截取水平计算的重现期能更好地反映区域干旱发生的内在规律性.     

潮白河流域气象水文干旱特征及其响应关系

利用潮白河流域7个气象站1960-2011年逐月降水以及密云水库同时期入库流量数据，分别以SPI和SDI两个干旱指标表征气象、水文干旱，采用游程理论、M-K检验、滑动t-检验、Spearman秩相关检验等方法研究了该流域气象水文干旱特征，并探求水文、气象干旱的响应关系。结果表明：研究期内潮白河流域气象干旱多以短历时干旱事件为主，历时1-2个月的干旱事件达研究期内气象干旱事件总次数的67.18%；但是气象干旱的年干旱烈度及其历时未通过MK趋势显著性检验，其线性斜率值仅为-0.025和-0.005，变化趋势不明显。而水文干旱存在极长历时重烈度干旱事件，历时达4个月以上的干旱事件达研究期内水文干旱事件总次数的46.54%，最长干旱历时达45个月；且研究期内水文干旱的年干旱烈度及其历时均通过显著性检验，线性斜率值达-0.419和0.228，变化显著；二者均在1980年和1998年出现突变现象。自20世纪90年代末以来，潮白河流域水文干旱频繁发生，且多为长历时连续干旱。研究期内水文干旱滞后气象干旱约1个月。     

Dermestid beetles in ‘evolution Canyon’, lower Nahal Oren, Mt. Carmel, including new records for Israel

Fifteen species of dermestid beetles were recorded at ‘Evolution Canyon’ (EC), Lower Nahal Oren, Mt. Carmel, Israel. They represent ~35% of known Israeli dermestid species. The following three species were recorded for the first time in Israel:Trogoderma svriaca Dalla Torre, 1911;Ctesias svriaca Ganglbauer, 1904; andAnthrenus (s.str.) jordaniens Pic, 1934. Adults of 13 species were collected on the more solar radiated, warmer and climatically more fluctuating south-facing slope (SFS); ten species were collected on the opposite, north-facing slope (NFS), which was cooler and climatically more stable. The abundance of adult dermestid beetles was 1.9 times higher on the SFS than on the NFS (86 and 47, respectively). Species richness and abundance distribution at EC (three collecting stations on each slope and one at the valley bottom) were significantly negatively correlated with the plant cover that consisted of trees and bushes (Spearmanr _s ,P=0.007 and 0.039, respectively) and perennials (Spearmanr _s ,P=0.039 and 0.077, respectively), indicating that non-woody plants were preferred by adult dermestid beetles.     

Hymenopteran Parasitoids on Fruit-infesting Tephritidae (Diptera) in Latin America and the Southern United States: Diversity, Distribution, Taxonomic Status and their use in Fruit Fly Biological Control

We first discuss the diversity of fruit fly (Diptera: Tephritidae) parasitoids (Hymenoptera) of the Neotropics. Even though the emphasis is on Anastrepha parasitoids, we also review all the information available on parasitoids attacking flies in the genera Ceratitis, Rhagoletis, Rhagoletotrypeta, Toxotrypana and Zonosemata. We center our analysis in parasitoid guilds, parasitoid assemblage size and fly host profiles. We also discuss distribution patterns and the taxonomic status of all known Anastrepha parasitoids. We follow by providing a historical overview of biological control of pestiferous tephritids in Latin American and Florida (U.S.A.) and by analyzing the success or failure of classical and augmentative biological control programs implemented to date in these regions. We also discuss the lack of success of introductions of exotic fruit fly parasitoids in various Latin American countries. We finish by discussing the most pressing needs related to fruit fly biological control (classical, augmentative, and conservation modalities) in areas of the Neotropics where fruit fly populations severely restrict the development of commercial fruit growing. We also address the need for much more intensive research on the bioecology of native fruit fly parasitoids.     

Epidemiology of Toxigenic Fungi and their Associated Mycotoxins for Some Mediterranean Crops

Recent data on the epidemiology of the common mycotoxigenic species of Fusarium, Alternaria, Aspergillus and Penicillium in infected or colonized plants, and in stored or processed plant products from the Mediterranean area are reviewed. Emphasis is placed on the toxigenicity of the causal fungal species and the natural occurrence of well known mycotoxins (aflatoxins, ochratoxins, fumonisins, trichothecenes, zearalenone, patulin, Alternaria-toxins and moniliformin), as well as some more recently described compounds (fusaproliferin, beauvericin) whose toxigenic potential is not yet well understood. Several Fusarium species reported from throughout the Mediterranean area are responsible of the formation of mycotoxins in infected plants and in plant products, including: Fusarium graminearum, F. culmorum, F. cerealis, F. avenaceum, F. sporotrichioides and F. poae, which produce deoxynivalenol, nivalenol, fusarenone, zearalenone, moniliformin, and T-2 toxin derivatives in wheat and other small grains affected by head blight or scab, and in maize affected by red ear rot. Moreover, strains of F. verticillioides, F. proliferatum, and F. subglutinans, that form fumonisins, beauvericin, fusaproliferin, and moniliformin, are commonly associated with maize affected by ear rot. Fumonisins, were also associated with Fusarium crown and root rot of asparagus and Fusarium endosepsis of figs, caused primarily by F. proliferatum. Toxigenic A. alternata strains and associated tenuazonic acid and alternariols were commonly found in black mould of tomato, black rot of olive and citrus, black point of small cereals, and black mould of several vegetables. Toxigenic strains of A. carbonarius and ochratoxin A were often found associated with black rot of grapes, whereas toxigenic strains of A. flavus and/or P. verrucosum, forming aflatoxins and ochratoxin A, respectively, were found in moulded plant products from small cereals, peanuts, figs, pea, oilseed rape, sunflower seeds, sesame seeds, pistachios, and almonds. Finally, toxigenic strains of P. expansum and patulin were frequently found in apple, pear and other fresh fruits affected by blue mould rot, as well as in derived juices and jams.     

Brief Guide for Authors

正Journal of Arid Land(JAL)is an international journal(ISSN 1674-6767;CN 65-1278/K)for the natural sciences,sponsored by the Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography,Chinese Academy of Sciences and Science Press.It is published by Science Press and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg bimonthly.JAL publishes original,innovative,and integrative research from arid and semiarid regions,ad     

The parasitoid complex ofLiriomyza cicerina on chickpea (Cicer arietinum)

Liriomyza cicerina (Diptera: Agromyzidae) is an important pest on chickpea in Turkey. The objective of this study was to determine the parasitoids and rates of parasitism ofL. cicerina on chickpea (Cicer arietinum L.) during the 2005 and 2006 seasons in ?anl?urfa province, Turkey. Leaves with mines were sampled weekly and kept in the laboratory to observe and count emerging leafminer and parasitoid adults. Eight parasitoid species were collected: the braconidsOpius monilicornis Fischer andOpius tersus Foerster and the eulophidsDiaulinopsis arenaria (Erdös) andNeochrysocharis formosa (Westwood), which occurred in both the winter and summer seasons;Diglyphus crassinervis Erdös,Neochrysocharis ambitiosa Hansson,Neochrysocharis sericea (Erdös) andPediobius metallicus (Nees), which occurred only in the summer growing areas.Diaulinopsis arenaria was the predominant parasitoid with 4–7.7% parasitism rate whileN. ambitiosa andO. monilicornis were the second and third most predominant species. The results of these trials show that sinceDia. arenaria occurred throughout every season, it could potentially be used for control of the leafminerL. cicerina.     

Plant–herbivore asynchrony necessitates augmentative releases of the exotic beetle,Zygogramma bicolorata,to enhance the biological control of P arthenium hysterophorus

Systematic information on the quantitative impact of Z ygogramma bicolorata on the biology of P arthenium hysterophorus is crucial as the seeds of this weed continue to germinate from the accumulated soil seed bank throughout the year in the form of different germinating flushes, while the activity of the beetle ceases during winter as it enters diapause. Therefore, plant–herbivore interactions need to be explored to develop predictions of the overall impact of the introduced beetle on the weed. The findings revealed that defoliation by Z . bicolorata had a significant impact on the plant height, density and flower production in flushes F ₃, F ₄ and F ₅, but not in F ₁ and F ₂ that exhibited longer periodicity, profuse branching, a longer flowering period and maximum flower production and contributed mostly to the existing seed soil bank. Therefore, total depletion of the existing soil seed bank was not possible. Consequently, the effect of augmentative field releases of laboratory‐reared beetles was explored on F ₁ and F ₂ in February for three consecutive years (2011–2013). Before initiating the trial, random soil samples were taken from the plots that were assigned to the paired treatments (i.e. with the beetle and without the beetle [insecticide‐treated]) and it was found that the seed bank in those samples did not differ. The single release of Z . bicolorata adults at five per plant at the six‐leaf stage significantly reduced the soil seed bank, compared to without the biocontrol agent, irrespective of the flushes at the end of the season.     

Broad bean mottle virus in Morocco; curculionid vectors,and natural occurrence in food legumes other than faba bean (Vicia faba)

Broad bean mottle virus (BBMV) was transmitted from infected to healthy faba-bean plants by the curculionid weevilsApion radiolus Kirby,Hypera variabilis Herbst,Pachytychius strumarius Gyll,Smicronyx cyaneus Gyll, andSitona lineatus L. The latter appeared to be an efficient vector: acquisition and inoculation occurred at the first bite, the rate of transmission was c. 41%, and virus retention lasted for at least seven days.S. lineatus transmitted the virus from faba bean to lentil and pea, but not to the three genotypes of chickpea tested. This is the first report on the generaHypera, Pachytychius, andSmicronyx as virus vectors, and onA. radiolus, H. variabilis, P. strumarius, andS. cyaneus as vectors of BBMV.Out of 351 samples of food legumes with symptoms suggestive of virus infection, 16, 11, 19, and 17% of the samples of chickpea, lentil, pea, and common bean, respectively, were found infected when tested for BBMV in DAS-ELISA. This is the first report on the natural occurrence of BBMV in chickpea, lentil, pea, and common bean. The virus should be regarded as a food-legume virus rather than a faba-bean virus solely, and is considered an actual threat to food legume improvement programmes.     

Characterization of potato potyvirus Y (PVY) isolates from seed potato batches. Situation of the NTN, Wilga and Z isolates

A collection of 38 PVY isolates from seed potato batches, originating from several Western European countries, was characterized by using current biological, serological and molecular tools differentiating PVY strains and groups. The correlation between the three kinds of tests was good but not absolute. No single serological or PCR method was able to discriminate among the five isolate groups found. Twenty-nine isolates belonged to the PVY^N strain and six to the PVY^O strain. No PVY^C was found. Two other isolates reacted serologically like PVY^O, but were unable to elicit a hypersensitive response from the Ny_tbr gene and probably represent the PVY^Z group. At the molecular level, these two isolates showed a combination of both PVY^O and PVY^N and could be recombinants of these strains. Another isolate reacted serologically like PVY^O, but induced vein necrosis in tobacco, like PVY^N-Wilga. Some PVY^N isolates caused tuber ring necrosis in glasshouse conditions. These might belong to the PVY^NTN group. The PVY^NTN, PVY^N-Wilga and PVY^Z groups probably represent pathotypes within strains PVY^N and PVY^O, respectively. The present study also confirms previous reports showing a high genetic variation at the 5 end within the PVYN strain.     

The autumn leafroller: Phenology,damage and parasitoids in a Dutch apple orchard

The phenology of the autumn leafroller,Syndemis musculana, a local pest of apple, was studied in order to forecast larval emergence. From 1983–1986, peak flight as determined with sexpheromone traps was always between 13–18 May. The duration of embryonic development was determined at various constant temperatures and used to estimate the periods of egg hatch in these four years. Each year, most eggs should have hatched in the second decade of June.Differences in attack rates between apple cultivars seem to be explained largely by the variation in picking time. Larvae are only half grown at the beginning of harvest (cv. James Grieve), and have gone into hibernation when the latest variety (cv. Golden Delicious) is picked. Moreover, the varieties Cox's Orange Pippin and Belle de Boskoop, picked about half time, are liable to receive additional damage by caterpillars brought with the picked fruits into storage.Various hymenopterous parasites were reared from caterpillars. As the only leafroller in the orchard which hibernates as mature larva,S. musculana may promote winter survival of some parasitoids, like the eulophidColpyclypeus florus.Samenvatting De fenologie van de herfstbladroller (Syndemis musculana Hübner), een incidentele plaag op appel, werd nader bepaald met het doel het uitkomen van de eieren te kunnen voorspellen. In 1983–1986 viel de piekvlucht, bepaald met behulp van feromoonvallen, steeds tussen 13 en 18 mei.De ontwikkelingsduur van de eieren bij verschillende constante temperaturen werd gebruikt om de periode van uitkomen te schatten. De meeste eieren zullen ieder jaar in de eerste helft van juni uitkomen.Geconstateerde verschillen in schade tussen appelrassen blijken goeddeels terug te voeren op verschillen in pluktijdstip. De rupsen van de herfstbladroller zijn pas half-was als de eerste appels eind augustus geplukt worden, terwijl tegen het einde van de oogst begin oktober de meeste al in winterslaap zijn. Met name tussentijdse rassen, als Cox's Orange Pippin and Schone van Boskoop, lopen extra schade op doordat grotere rupsen met de geplukte vruchten in de kist terecht komen.Uit de rupsen werden negen, al van andere boomgaardbladrollers bekende, sluipwespen gekweekt, Omdat deze bladrollersoort, als enige in de boomgaard, als volgroeide rups overwintert, lijkt zij bij uitstek geschikt als winterwaard.This study was carried out at the Experimental Orchard De Schuilenburg, Schuilenburg 3, 4041 BK Kesteren, the Netherlands, to which address correspondence should be addressed.