厄尔尼诺事件对西北太平洋柔鱼种群动态的影响

为了解西北太平洋柔鱼资源量变动与气候变化如厄尔尼诺事件等的关系，实验假设尼诺指数 (oceanic Ni?o index，ONI)影响柔鱼种群动态参数内禀自然增长率 (intrinsic rate of growth, r)和最大环境容纳量 (carrying capacity, K)并分别建立4种剩余产量模型 (SP、E_r-EDSP、E_K-EDSP、E_r- E_K-EDSP)探索厄尔尼诺事件影响下西北太平洋柔鱼的种群资源状态变化趋势。结果发现, E_r-EDSP、E_K-EDSP、E_r-E_K-EDSP等3个加入气候因子模型的偏差信息准则 (deviance information criterion，DIC)值小于传统剩余产量模型的DIC值，其中E_r-E_K-EDSP模型DIC值最小，模型精度最高，估计的最大可持续产量 (maximum sustainable yield，MSY)为39.26×10⁴ t。1994—2017年，北太平洋柔鱼的捕捞死亡率 (F_t) 低于目标死亡率 (F_tar)和MSY水平下的捕捞死亡率 (F_MSY)，2017年种群资源量小于MSY水平资源量 (B_MSY)。研究表明，西北太平洋柔鱼种群资源可能正处于过度捕捞阶段。该研究结果可为西北太平洋柔鱼的可持续开发提供建议。     

基于贝叶斯Schaefer模型的西北太平洋秋刀鱼资源评估和管理

秋刀鱼(Cololabis saira)是西北太平洋温带海域的主要捕捞对象之一,也是西北太平洋渔业重要的组成部分。本研究根据北太平洋渔业委员会(NPFC)统计的2003～2017年渔获量数据以及中国秋刀鱼组织提交的单位捕捞努力渔获量数据(Catch per unit effort, CPUE),基于贝叶斯Schaefer剩余产量模型,分基准方案和敏感性分析方案对西北太平洋秋刀鱼资源状况进行了评估,并对其管理策略做了风险分析。结果显示,基准方案和敏感性分析方案下模型参数预测值以及生物学参考点估计值比较相近。在基准方案下,估算的最大可持续产量(Maximumsustainableyield,MSY)为75.26×10~4t,最大可持续产量的资源量BMSY为240.14×10~4t,此时的捕捞死亡率为0.32。在敏感性分析方案下,估算的最大的可持续产量MSY为70.03×104t,最大可持续产量的资源量BMSY为232.53×104t,此时的捕捞死亡率为0.31。该海域秋刀鱼资源状况良好,未经受过度捕捞。风险评估分析表明,为使秋刀鱼资源可持续利用,需将捕获率设定在0.3左右。     

西北太平洋柔鱼适宜栖息地动态变化研究

柔鱼(Ommastrepes bartramii)是短生命周期种类,具有较高的经济价值和重要的生态地位,研究柔鱼资源对我国的远洋渔业发展有重要作用。本研究根据2005～2016年8～10月西北太平洋柔鱼渔业数据以及海表温度(Sea surface temperature, SST)数据,依据前人建立的柔鱼栖息地适宜性指数模型(Habitat suitability index, HSI)计算适宜柔鱼栖息地面积大小,并与柔鱼单位捕捞努力量渔获量(Catch per unit of fishing effort, CPUE)和渔获量进行相关性分析。研究发现,2015年平均适宜栖息地(HSI0.6)面积范围最大,达到1087369km2;2008年平均适宜栖息地面积范围最小,仅为618407.5 km~2。所选区域内适宜栖息地分布能有效反映柔鱼的资源分布情况,但其适宜栖息地面积大小与渔获量和CPUE之间不存在显著相关性(P0.05)。其原因可能有:鱿钓渔船作业集中,导致单船渔获量不能表征实际CPUE;大尺度的气候变化,特别是厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜现象会影响柔鱼资源量;黑潮与亲潮的变化也会影响柔鱼资源量。     

利用贝叶斯动态产量模型评估印度洋长鳍金枪鱼资源状态

印度洋长鳍金枪鱼(Thunnus alalunga)的生物学信息相对较少, 渔业数据存在较多问题, 致使其资源评估结果仍存在较大的不确定性, 从而影响了渔业管理的科学性。为此, 本研究基于印度洋长鳍金枪鱼的渔业捕捞、标准化 CPUE (catch per unit effort)数据及相关种群假设, 利用贝叶斯动态产量模型对该种群进行了资源评估研究, 结果显示: (1) 渔获量的观测误差对模型参数估计、资源状态的判断及渔业管理具有重要影响, 渔获量观测误差的增大使模型评估的过度捕捞概率上升, 导致总可捕量(total allowable catch, TAC)减少; (2) 动态产量模型形状参数、r 的先验分布和资源丰度指数的选择均会影响资源评估的质量, 本研究显示, Fox 模型的资源评估结果比 Schaefer 模型的评估结果更合理, r 先验分布范围的增大使模型评估的资源状态变好, 使用西南海域标准化 CPUE 时的评估结果相对较好; (3) 设置某些年份的资源量比例(φ、P₂₀₁₇)范围有助于提高数据缺乏下渔业资源评估的质量; (4) 评估结果表明印度洋长鳍金枪鱼发生资源型与捕捞型过度捕捞的概率分别为 34%、50%, 两种过度捕捞同时发生的概率为 32%, 该种群正面临捕捞型过度捕捞的风险; 投影分析显示, 将 TAC 控制在 32658 t (即最后 5 年平均渔获量的 90%)以下时, 印度洋长鳍金枪鱼 10 年后不发生过度捕捞的概率大于 60%。贝叶斯动态产量模型作为一种数据有限的渔业资源评估模型, 适用于印度洋长鳍金枪鱼, 且该模型能较好地考虑参数输入和不确定性因素对资源评估质量、总可捕量估计的影响, 为深入研究印度洋长鳍金枪鱼的资源状态与管理提供了科学依据。     

基于贝叶斯的鲐鱼(Scomber japonicus)生物经济模型及管理策略

根据2000-2011年中国、日本以及韩国三国的鲐鱼大型灯光围网渔业生产统计数据以及相关经济数据,运用贝叶斯方法构建东、黄海鲐鱼贝叶斯生物经济模型,分别以剩余产量模型参数r、K、q的均匀分布、正态分布和对数正态分布3种方案,来模拟不同管理策略下鲐鱼资源量及渔业短期、中期和长期利润变动规律,并对其管理策略进行风险分析。结果显示,参数r、K、q为正态分布和对数正态分布方案下估算出的管理参考点期望值(正态方案下的BMSY除外)均小于均匀分布方案估算出来的期望值。研究认为,如果单从生物学角度来看,若将管理策略设定为收获率0.4以上,则2031年以后资源量可能存在着资源崩溃的风险。较为保守的管理策略应将收获率设定在0.3左右,此时概率(B2031>BMSY)大于0.85,最大可持续产量MSY约为35万t。同样地,如果仅从经济学角度考虑,将收获率控制在0.1时,概率(B2031>BMEY)都为1,且概率(B2031相似文献   

2015年超强厄尔尼诺事件对西北太平洋柔鱼渔场变动的影响

为研究超强厄尔尼诺事件对西北太平洋海域柔鱼（Ommastrephes bartarmii）资源量变动的影响，并分析柔鱼栖息地在极端气候条件下的变化规律，根据上海海洋大学鱿钓科学技术组提供的中国柔鱼生产捕捞数据，比较2008年正常气候年份与2015年超强厄尔尼诺年份的单位捕捞努力量渔获量（CPUE）、产量、捕捞努力量以及渔场纬度重心（LATG）的变化；利用栖息地适宜性指数模型对西北太平洋柔鱼栖息地的海表温度（SST）、光合有效辐射范围（PAR）和海表面高度距平（SSHA）3个关键环境因子进行分析。渔业数据时间为2008年和2015年9—11月，数据覆盖范围为36°N~48°N、150°E~170°E。结果发现，相对于2008年正常年份，2015年超强厄尔尼诺事件下的CPUE明显降低，且LATG向南偏移；此外，2015年适宜的SST和PAR范围均显著降低，导致适宜的栖息地面积与正常年份相比大幅减少；最适宜的SST和PAR等值线向南偏移，导致有利的栖息地纬度位置向南移动。研究认为，2015年超强厄尔尼诺事件发生时，柔鱼渔场环境不适于柔鱼生长，适宜栖息地面积减少且向南移动，导致该年份柔鱼资源丰度骤减，渔场向南偏移。     

浙江南部海域银姑鱼的生活史参数估算及资源评价

为了评估银姑鱼资源开发状态，实验根据2016年在浙江南部海域底拖网的调查数据，研究了银姑鱼的生活史参数，并基于单位补充量模型对其资源状态进行评价，进而探讨不同自然死亡系数和捕捞选择性对资源评价结果的影响。结果显示，银姑鱼渐近体长估计值为25.36 cm，生长速率为0.32/年，当前开捕体长(13.52 cm)远小于其初次性成熟体长(17.79 cm)；自然死亡系数估计值为0.74，总死亡系数为2.62，当前捕捞死亡系数为1.88。基于以上参数，构建了单位补充量渔获量YPR模型和单位补充量亲体生物量SSBR模型，随着F的增加，YPR先增大后减小，而SSBR则减少。银姑鱼生物学参考点F_0.1为0.78，F_max为3.43，F_20%为0.66，F_40%为0.33，可知当前捕捞强度远大于防止补充型过度捕捞警戒线F_20%。敏感性分析结果显示，自然死亡系数的不确定性将明显影响单位补充量模型的研究结果和相关生物学参考点的估算值，而不同选择性系数，尤其是开捕体长，也直接影响单位补充量模型的结果。研究表明，当前浙江南部近海银姑鱼种群已处于补充型过度捕捞状态，为维持渔业资源的可持续发展，建议适当减小开发力度，增大开捕体长；为提高资源状态评价的准确性，建议减小自然死亡系数的不确定性。本研究可为银姑鱼资源的养护和管理提供科学建议。     

厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜发生期太平洋褶柔鱼秋生群资源丰度的响应研究

太平洋褶柔鱼(Todarodes pacificus)是短生命周期的重要经济头足类, 其资源丰度易受气候和海洋环境变量的影响。本研究利用 1977―2015 年日本与韩国的太平洋褶柔鱼秋生群渔业统计数据, 结合海表面温度(sea surface temperature, SST)、50 m 水层温度(Temp_50 m)和 100 m 水层温度(Temp_100 m)等海洋环境数据, 探究太平洋褶柔鱼资源丰度[以 CPUE (单位捕捞努力量渔获量)为指标]和补充量在不同厄尔尼诺和南方涛动 ENSO (EI Ni?o-Southern oscillation)事件下的变动差异。结果表明, 相较于厄尔尼诺事件, 拉尼娜事件下太平洋褶柔鱼渔场内SST、 Temp_50 m 和 Temp_100 m 升高, 其在空间上呈由西北向东南、由北向南递增的变化趋势, 且大于 20 ℃的海温分布面积增加, 三者距平值均值及正值在空间上的分布面积均大于其在厄尔尼诺事件期间的。厄尔尼诺事件下的太平洋褶柔鱼秋生群资源丰度及其补充量小于其在拉尼娜事件期间的, 且资源丰度与 SST、Temp_50 m 和 Temp_100 m 间呈正相关。研究认为, 不同 ENSO 事件下太平洋褶柔鱼渔场海温环境存在明显差异, 其资源丰度及补充量与气候影响下的海温变动有关。     

东海区刺鲳生长、死亡及资源利用状况评价

利用2001-2005年东海区26°30′～32°30′N，禁渔区线外200水深以浅的东海区大陆架海域底层拖网调查资料和生物学测定资料，利用ELEFAN I软件估算生长参数，拟合von-Bertalanffy生长方程,估算死亡系数，利用Beverton和Holt模型评价资源利用状况。研究结果表明：东海刺鲳的Von Bertalanffy生长方程的生长参数为:L_∞ =267.8 mm；K=0.45/a；t₀=-0.63 a。从生长速度看其生长过程是变化的，小时生长较快，当叉长达到178.5 mm时生长速度开始下降，此时年龄为1.81 a。利用Pauly公式和詹秉义等推导的M和最大年龄t_λ的线性回归方程求得自然死亡系数M=0.81，用FiSAT II软件中的长度变换渔获曲线法、BH模式和用CPUE估算总死亡系数，得到Z=3.87，捕捞死亡系数F=3.06。根据Beverton和Holt的单位补充量等渔获量曲线，现行渔业点即F=3.06，t_c=1.10 a位于最适产量区内，表明目前对刺鲳的资源利用较为合理，接近最大产量。保持目前的捕捞强度F=3.06和捕捞规格L_c=145 mm不变，不仅能够保持目前渔获量稳定，而且能够保护刺鲳的资源。刺鲳渔获量稳定且缓慢增长的重要原因在于开捕年龄较为合理，也就是网目尺寸较为合适，这对东海区主要经济鱼类资源的管理和保护具有很大的借鉴作用。     

秘鲁外海茎柔鱼渔场分布和水温结构的关系

分布在东南太平洋海域的茎柔鱼是重要的经济性头足类，是我国鱿钓船队的主要捕捞对象之一。研究茎柔鱼渔场分布及其与水温的水平、垂直结构等关系，是探索渔场形成机制及其规律的重要内容。本文根据2006年1-12月我国鱿钓船在秘鲁外海的渔捞记录、表温（SST）和5～180 m垂直水温等资料，用3种方法计算SST的水平梯度（D_max，D_square和D_mean），用ArcGIS 9.0和Sufer 8.0软件分析绘制单船平均日产量(CPUE)和SST、SST水平梯度关系的分布图、水温垂直结构分布图，分析茎柔鱼渔场分布及其与水温结构的关系。结果表明，全年中心渔场分布在80～85°W、10～17°S，SST为18～28 ℃，产量分布呈现明显的空间变化。其中，6-8月为全年最高产时期，其中心渔场分布在81～83°W、12～13°S，相应的SST为18～23 ℃。SST水平梯度与渔场分布关系密切，水平梯度D_square和产量的拟合度为最优（P<0.001），中心渔场相应的D_square为0.6～1.7 ℃。水温垂直结构分析认为，6-8月通常在81°W、12～13°S附近形成上升流中心，中心渔场基本位于上升流冷水团边缘81°30′～82°30′W。研究认为，该渔场因上升流而形成，主要分布在上升流引起冷水与外洋暖水的交汇区，与SST、SST水平结构、水温垂直结构关系极为密切。     

应用贝叶斯生物量动态模型评估印度洋黄鳍金枪鱼资源

利用贝叶斯生物量动态模型对印度洋黄鳍金枪鱼(Thunnus albacares)资源进行了评估,并分析了不同标准化单位捕捞努力渔获量(catch per unit effort,CPUE)、内禀增长率(r)先验分布对评估结果的影响。结果表明:(1)模型能较好拟合日本延绳钓渔业的标准化CPUE,但对中国台湾延绳钓渔业的标准化CPUE拟合较差;当模型单独使用日本标准化CPUE时,评估结果显示印度洋黄鳍金枪鱼被过度捕捞;若模型单独使用中国台湾标准化CPUE,则结果相反,显示印度洋黄鳍金枪鱼未被过度捕捞;而当同时使用两个标准化CPUE时,日本标准化CPUE数据获得更大估计权重,因此,评估结果与单独使用日本标准化CPUE的结果类似。(2)当r采用无信息先验时,r估计偏小,而环境容纳量(K)估计则偏大,参数估计不合理;当r采用信息先验时,r与K的后验分布估计相对合理;由于r与K存在显著的负相关关系,生物量动态模型难于同时有效估计这两个参数,特别是在数据质量较差情况下,因而采用信息先验能提高生物量动态模型参数估计的质量。(3)本研究利用偏差信息准则(Deviance Information Criterion,DIC)与均方误差(Mean Square Error,MSE)统计量对模型进行了比较,并选择模型S8用于评价印度洋黄鳍金枪鱼的资源状态。评估结果认为印度洋黄鳍金枪鱼被过度捕捞,既存在捕捞型过度捕捞,也存在资源型过度捕捞,这与资源合成(Stock synthesis version 3,SS3)等模型的评价结果一致。     

基于SPiCT模型对数据有限短生命周期阿根廷滑柔鱼的资源评估

以西南大西洋阿根廷滑柔鱼(Illex argentinus)为研究对象,基于连续时间的随机剩余产量模型(a stochastic surplus production model in continuous time,SPiCT),分析了6种方案下参数估计的变化及其对资源评估的影响。对比6种方案中阿根廷滑柔鱼的产量和单位捕捞努力渔获量(catch per unit effort,CPUE)的估计值与观测值间的最小残差平方和,方案3(设置了K、r、q的先验分布)为最适方案。相应的资源评估结果显示,2010年西南大西洋阿根廷滑柔鱼捕捞死亡系数小于最大持续产量时捕捞死亡系数F_(MSY),渔获量小于最大持续产量MSY,预期平衡生物量EEB大于最大持续产量时的生物量B_(MSY),这表明该资源在2010年尚未被过度开发利用。SPiCT模型综合考虑了环境因子、种群间相互作用和网具选择性等因素引起的观测和过程误差,较S、F-EDSP、S-F-EDSP模型及其他离散模型对数据要求低,计算方法简单,更适合数据有限、短生命周期渔业种类的资源评估。另外,可捕系数q值的设置严重影响了SPiCT模型K、B的估计,优化估计可捕系数q将有利于提高其资源评估的准确性。     

Development of Bayesian production models for assessing the North Pacific swordfish population

Bayesian surplus production models were developed for assessing the North Pacific swordfish population under alternative scenarios: a single-stock scenario and a two-stock scenario with subareas that represented the western central and eastern Pacific Ocean regions. Biomass production was modeled with a three-parameter production model that allowed production to vary from the symmetric Schaefer curve using an estimated shape parameter. Lognormal prior distributions for intrinsic growth rate and carrying capacity were assumed. Goodness-of-fit diagnostics were developed for comparing the fits of alternative model configurations based on the root-mean squared error of catch per unit effort (CPUE) fits and the standardized CPUE residuals. Production model fits for 1952–2006 indicated that the Japanese longline CPUE numbers were influential under each stock scenario because these scenarios were the longest time series of relative abundance indices. Model results also indicated that assumptions about the prior means for intrinsic growth rate and carrying capacity may be important based on the model configuration.     

An adjoint data assimilation approach to diagnosis of physical and biological controls on Pseudocalanus spp. in the Gulf of Maine–Georges Bank region

The underlying scientific objective here is to determine the mechanisms that control seasonal variations in the abundance of Pseudocalanus spp. in the Georges Bank–Gulf of Maine region. It is postulated that the observed distributions result from the interaction of the population dynamics with the climatological circulation. The problem is posed mathematically as a 2-D advection–diffusion–reaction equation for a scalar variable. Given an initial distribution of animals, we seek the population dynamics source term R ( x , y ) such that integration of the forward model will result in predictions3 that minimize the sum of squares of differences with observed concentrations at a later time. An adjoint data assimilation technique has been designed for these purposes.
This approach has been used to invert for the population dynamics associated with the transition between bimonthly (i.e. for 2 months) climatological Pseudocalanus spp. distributions derived from MARMAP data. Vertically averaged velocity and diffusivity fields diagnosed from hydrodynamical simulations of the climatological flow are specified. Solutions converge rapidly, and the procedure reduces the cost function by an order of magnitude within 50 iterations. The resulting population dynamics vary considerably in space and time, as does the balance between local tendency, physical transport and biological source terms. Generally speaking, the patterns in population dynamics are not inconsistent with current knowledge concerning potential controls such as predation and food limitation. Analysis of the solutions indicates that the Pseudocalanus spp. population centres located in the western Gulf of Maine and on Georges Bank may be self-sustaining, in contrast to prior studies which characterize the former as a source region for the latter.     

Reproductive biology of the commercial sea cucumber <Emphasis Type="Italic">Holothuria spinifera</Emphasis> (Echinodermata: Holothuroidea) from Tuticorin,Tamil Nadu,India

The annual reproductive cycle of the commercial sea cucumber Holothuria spinifera was studied in Tuticorin, Tamil Nadu, India, from September 2000 to October 2001, by macroscopic and microscopic examination of gonad tubule, gonad index and histology of gametogenic stages, to determine the spawning pattern. The gonad consists of long tubules with uniform development. It does not confirm the progressive tubule recruitment model described for other holothurians. The maximum percentage of mature animals, gonad and fecundity indices, tubule length and diameter, with the observations on gonad histology, ascertained that H. spinifera had the peak gametogenic activity during September and October 2001 followed by a prolonged spawning period from November 2000–March 2001.     

One-dimensional biophysical modelling of fish egg vertical distributions in shelf seas

Modelling the vertical distribution of fish eggs is important when assessing fish stocks with egg production methods and for monitoring the reproductive potential of fish populations. Fish eggs are passive particles and their vertical distribution is determined by a few parameters such as egg density, egg diameter, wind‐ and tide‐induced turbulence, and vertical hydrographic structure. A one‐dimensional vertical biophysical, numerical model was developed which was adapted to the hydrography of shelf seas under the influence of tidal currents, wind‐induced circulation, and river discharges. The biological part of the model parameterized the ascent velocity of the egg as a function of egg properties (diameter, density) and water properties (density, viscosity, turbulence). The model contains a turbulence closure which makes the model dynamic. The model parameters were surface wind, tidal currents, T‐S profile, and egg diameter and density, which were kept constant in time. The model has the capacity to generate sub‐surface egg maxima in different hydrographic conditions, e.g. in areas under the influence of river plumes, and can also homogenize the egg distribution under wind and tide forcing. Sensitivity tests were carried out to study the response of the model to variations in the model parameters for a variety of hydrographic conditions. The modelled egg vertical distributions were validated by comparison of the model results with egg distributions sampled in the field. The analysis highlighted variability in fish egg density of anchovy, sardine, and sprat across years and areas, with a potential link between egg density and surface sea water density. The validated model is a tool for the analysis of shelf seas fish egg vertical distributions.     

Predicting the dispersion of sprat larvae (Sprattus sprattus (L.)) in the German Bight

Sprat (Sprattus sprattus (L.)) larval dispersal in the German Bight is predicted with a model system consisting of two three-dimensional circulation models and a three-dimensional transport model. Horizontal distribution data for specific length classes of larvae, obtained from field surveys carried out in the German Bight during summer 1991, are used as initial conditions for the starting points of the tracers in the transport model. Sprat larval distributions are predicted and are compared with distributions of the appropriate length class of larvae observed during a subsequent cruise about 3 weeks later. The predicted larval (tracer) distributions compare favourably to observed larvae distributions in the inner model areas but not in the areas close to the coast. Factors contributing to inaccurate predictions are uncertainties in horizontal and vertical larval distributions as well as the model grid resolution, which is too coarse in coastal areas.     

Deep water longline selectivity for black spot seabream (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Pagellus bogaraveo</Emphasis>) in the Strait of Gibraltar

Species and size selectivity of the deep water longline traditionally used in commercial fishing of the black spot seabream (Pagellus bogaraveo) were studied in the Strait of Gibraltar with four sizes of hooks. Black spot seabream contributed up to 88% of the catch by number. Catch and by-catch rates differed for the different hooks and fishing trials. Significant differences in average fish length between all hooks, except in one case, were found. The comparison of two experimental fishing trials within 4 years indicates a displacement towards smaller sizes in the size frequency distributions. The results of this study show that the fishing gear can be size selective depending on hook size. The fitted selectivity models for each experiments were very different despite having two hooks in common. This is probably due to the very different catch size distributions in the two periods, which suggests that the population size structure changed significantly between 2000/2001 and 2004/2005.     

Analysis of DNA relationships among Aeromonas species by RAPD (randomly amplified polymorphic DNA) typing

Genetic differences between a collection of aeromonads were studied in two laboratories by analysis of randomly amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD). A single randomly designed primer, generated reproducible profiles of genomic DNA in both laboratories for Aeromonas salmonicida subspecies salmonicida, although the profiles differed between laboratories. Analysis of atypical strains of A. salmonicida and isolates of the A. hydrophila group produced scattered profiles in both laboratories. The uniform fingerprints produced for A. salmonicida subspecies salmonicida indicate genomic homogeneity. The scattered RAPD profiles of the motile aeromonads demonstrate the genomic diversity of this group. A group of unspeciated motile aeromonads gave uniform fingerprints, suggesting the possibility of a genomically homogeneous species. Although the RAPD technique is susceptible to the effects of minor technical variations, this study has demonstrated that where there is DNA similarity, it can be recognized, and where there is diversity, differentiation can be made. RAPD promises to be useful in epidemiological studies for rapid identification of bacteria where a source of reference DNA is available and may be useful in preliminary investigations of relatedness within groups.     

Do spatial models of growth rate potential reflect fish growth in a heterogeneous environment? A comparison of model results

Abstract – Spatial models of fish growth rate potential have been used to characterize a variety of environments including estuaries, the North American Great Lakes, small lakes and rivers. Growth rate potential models capture a snapshot of the environment but do not include the effects of habitat selection or competition for food in their measures of environment quality. Here, we test the ability of spatial models of fish growth rate potential to describe the quality of an environment for a fish population in which individual fish may select habitats and local competition may affect per capita intake. We compare growth rate potential measurements to simulated fish growth and distributions of model fish from a spatially explicit individual-based model of fish foraging in the same model environment. We base the model environment on data from Lake Ontario and base the model fish population on alewife in the lake. The results from a simulation experiment show that changes in the model environment that caused changes in the average growth rate potential correlated extremely highly ( r ²≥0.97) with changes in simulated fish growth. Unfortunately, growth rate potential was not a reliable quantitative predictor of simulated fish growth nor of the fish spatial distribution. The inability of the growth rate potential model to quantitatively predict simulated fish growth and fish distributions results from the fact that growth rate potential does not consider the effects of habitat selection or of competition on fish growth or distribution, processes that operate in our individual-based model and presumably also operate in nature. The results, however, do support the use of growth rate potential models to describe the relative quality of habitats and environments for fish populations.