把不确定性引入生物学参考点F0.1和Fmax的估计以评估东海带鱼渔业资源

东海带鱼(Trichiurus haumela)是东海区重要经济鱼类之一,目前还没有研究在生物学参考点F0.1和Fmax的估计中引入不确定性并在此情况下对东海区带鱼渔业资源进行量化评估。文章应用蒙特卡罗模拟方法研究了渔业数据中不同水平的不确定性和不同初次捕捞年龄对F0.1和Fmax估计的影响,用其与现在的捕捞死亡系数Fcur做比较,初步评估了东海带鱼渔业资源。计算结果表明,高水平的不确定性将会增加在F0.1和Fmax估计中的差异,从而使其被定义为过度捕捞的可能性减小。经过比较表明,F0.1比Fmax是一更好的参考点,且东海区带鱼渔业明显处于过度捕捞状态。不同初次捕捞年龄下单位补充量渔获量的变化情况的研究表明,增大初次捕捞年龄可以减小现在的捕捞死亡率大于参考点死亡率的概率,从而增大初次捕捞年龄可以改善现在捕捞过度的资源状况。     

死亡因素对放流明对虾群体资源变动及生物学参考点影响的量化评估

为评估环境突变、被捕食、纳潮、非法捕捞和交尾死亡对资源量和渔获量的影响,及5种死亡因素和与生长有关的参数引入不确定性对估算生物学参考点(Fmax和F0.1)的影响,基于发展的可应用于研究放流增殖渔业的YPR(yield per recruitment)模型,模拟5种死亡因素不同水平下放流中国明对虾的资源变动规律。结果显示,环境突变、被捕食、纳潮、非法捕捞和交尾死亡水平越高,单位放流资源量和渔获量越少,交尾死亡尤其对累计单位放流渔获量的影响明显;在未引入不确定性时,作用于开捕前的环境突变、被捕食、纳潮和非法捕捞死亡的不同水平对生物学参考点无影响,与生长有关的参数及5种死亡因素引入不确定性可能存在低估F0.1和Fmax的现象。研究表明,减小与放流技术有关的环境突变、被捕食、纳潮和非法捕捞死亡水平对提高放流中国明对虾渔业效果有明显的作用,交尾死亡发生的时间及死亡水平对放流中国明对虾渔获有直接的影响,当参数引入不确定性时进行放流中国明对虾资源评估,生物学参考点的中位数较均值抗不确定性干扰能力更强。     

应用Beverton-Holt单位补充量产量模型估算东海区带鱼生物学参考点F_(0.1)和F_(MSY)

应用Beverton-Holt单位补充量产量模型,估算东海区带鱼生物学参考点F0.1、FMSY及其对应的MSY、Y0.1,并探讨了开捕年龄tc与上述生物学参考点的关系。结果表明,在当前的开捕年龄条件下,带鱼的F0.1比FMSY降低了31.71%,而单位补充量产量Yw/R只下降了4.46%;F0.1、FMSY随tc的提高而不断增大;若以MSY/R为管理目标,当tc为3.08龄时,Yw/R取得最大值329.41 g,可承受较大的捕捞强度;若以Y0.1/R为管理目标,当tc为2.50龄时,Yw/R取得最大值281.32 g,而F0.1仅为0.66。     

印度洋长鳍金枪鱼资源评估

本研究运用年龄结构资源评估模型ASAP,利用最新的渔业数据和生物学研究成果,对印度洋长鳍金枪鱼资源进行了评估。结果显示,主要资源变量捕捞死亡系数(F)、产卵亲体生物量(SSB)和生物学参考点受亲体-补充量关系的陡度参数(h)的影响很大。假设陡度参数h=0.7、0.8、0.9时,最大持续产量(MSY)分别为25 268t、27 414t、51 924t,当前(2010年初)F与FMSY之比分别为2.85、2.32、1.11,当前渔获量与MSY之比分别为1.65、1.52、0.80。1984年以来,F总体处于上升趋势,SSB处于下降趋势。基本模型条件下(h=0.8),当前资源状况为"趋向于过度捕捞"(Overfishing),且已接近于"过度捕捞"(Overfished)。若h=0.7、h=0.9,当前资源状况分别为"捕捞过度"、"趋向于过度捕捞"。     

东海带鱼繁殖力及其资源的合理利用

根据2003年东海区渔业资源监测网的调查数据，利用单位补充量繁殖力和单位补充量亲鱼资源生物量估算模型，对东海带鱼（Trichiurus japonicus Temminck et Schlegel，1844）渔业资源现状进行分析，结果表明：（1）根据单位补充量繁殖力的估算，当tc=0．5龄、F≥1．15时和当tc=1龄、F≥2．30时，带鱼渔业处在高危险区；而当tc≥1．5龄时，可以承受较大的捕捞压力。（2）根据单位补充量亲鱼资源生物量的估算，当tc=0．5龄、F≥1．22时和当t。=1龄、F≥2．40时，带鱼渔业处在高危险区；而当tc≥1．5龄以上时，可以承受较大的捕捞压力。（3）目前（2003年为例）东海带鱼现行渔业资源状况为：tc=0．5龄、F=2．60，处于高危险区的较高危险点上。因此，在降低现有捕捞强度较难的情况下，建议提高带鱼开捕规格，以便更好地养护东海带鱼，使其资源能得到可持续利用。     

基于CMSY和BSM的东海区重要渔业种类资源评估

有限数据方法(data-limited method)可结合少量易获得数据和相关生物学信息对渔业资源状况、生物学参考点以及生物量等进行评估,已经成为全球区域性渔业管理组织和资源评估学者的关注热点。本研究采用基于渔获量的最大可持续渔获量(catch-based maximum sustainable yield,CMSY)和基于贝叶斯状态空间的Schaefer产量模型(Bayesian Schaefer production model,BSM)评估了东海区19个重要经济种类的资源状况,并提出了基于最大可持续渔获量(maximum sustainable yield,MSY)的渔业管理建议。结果显示,19个种类中有1个种类衰竭,3个种类严重衰退,5个种类过度捕捞,5个种类轻度过度捕捞,5个种类健康。种群状态长期评估结果表明,处于生物可持续水平的鱼类种群占比已由1980年的95%下降至2019年的26%。同时对CMSY和BSM方法的结果进行了比较,整合单位捕捞努力量渔获量(catch per unit effort,CPUE)数据的BSM方法导致了置信区间较宽,并调节了生物量轨迹的变化形态...     

山东近海口虾蛄单位补充量渔获量评估

为完善口虾蛄的基础生物学资料,并为口虾蛄资源的管理提供科学指导和理论依据,本研究根据2016至2017年山东近海渔业资源底拖网调查获得的口虾蛄体长、体质量数据,估算了口虾蛄的生长、死亡参数,构建了基于体长结构的单位补充量渔获量(YPR)模型,研究口虾蛄的资源动态和管理策略。采集调查口虾蛄样品共5028尾,体长—体质量关系的表达式为W=0.0145L2.88,为负异速生长;使用ELEFAN方法估算出口虾蛄的渐进体长L∞为19.87 cm,生长速率K为0.62 a−1。口虾蛄的生长表现出明显的季节性变化规律,生长参数的季节振幅C为0.76,10月份生长最快,4月份生长最慢。通过体长转换的渔获曲线估算出口虾蛄的总死亡系数Z为3.24 a−1,根据不同方法估算自然死亡系数M的范围为0.75~1.27 a−1,捕捞死亡系数F的估算范围为1.96~2.49 a−1,开发率的均值为0.67。YPR模型结果显示,随着F增大,YPR值呈现先上升后下降的趋势,生物学参考点F0.1和Fmax的值分别为0.92a−1和1.88a−1。口虾蛄资源处于过度开发的状态,应降低捕捞压力,同时调整开捕体长,以维持口虾蛄渔业资源量和渔获量。     

东、黄海星康吉鳗生长、死亡和单位补充量渔获量

依据2011年、2016年和2017年在东、黄海进行的底拖网调查数据,研究了星康吉鳗的生长参数、死亡系数和单位补充量渔获量(YPR)。星康吉鳗的体长体质量关系和生长方程的拟合结果表明,其条件因子a估计值为4.5×10–4,其异速生长系数b的估计值为3.3。其渐近体长L∞的估计均值为102 cm,生长速率K的均值为0.21/年,理论上体长为零时的年龄t0估计均值为–0.19。通过Pauly经验公式求得星康吉鳗的自然死亡系数(M)为0.33。体长转换的渔获曲线求得总死亡系数为3.36,进而求得现阶段的捕捞死亡系数(F)为3.03,开发率高达90%。此外求得现阶段星康吉鳗的开捕体长为30 cm,对应的开捕年龄为1.47龄,远小于其体质量生长的拐点年龄(3.70龄)和临界年龄(3.39龄)。本研究根据单位补充量渔获量模型,估计其在不同自然死亡系数和开捕体长的情况下随捕捞死亡系数的变化曲线,并估算其生物学参考点。随F增加,YPR先增加到最大值,再逐渐减小。现阶段星康吉鳗的YPR为27.14,而当M为0.33时Fmax估计值为0.38,YPRmax为52.89,即将F降低为1/8,可获得将近2倍的YPR;对应的F0.1为0.255,比Fmax降低了三分之一,YPR0.1(50.38)只比最大值降低了不足5%。M越大,求得的生物学参考点越大,可获得的YPR越小;当开捕体长增加时,F和YPR都会有不同程度的增加。因此,现阶段中国东黄海星康吉鳗的开发率过高,开捕体长过小,处于过度捕捞的状态。为了维持星康吉鳗种群的生态健康、实现该渔业的可持续发展,建议大幅削减其捕捞强度,降低捕捞死亡系数,同时增加开捕体长。     

浙江南部海域银姑鱼的生活史参数估算及资源评价

为了评估银姑鱼资源开发状态，实验根据2016年在浙江南部海域底拖网的调查数据，研究了银姑鱼的生活史参数，并基于单位补充量模型对其资源状态进行评价，进而探讨不同自然死亡系数和捕捞选择性对资源评价结果的影响。结果显示，银姑鱼渐近体长估计值为25.36 cm，生长速率为0.32/年，当前开捕体长(13.52 cm)远小于其初次性成熟体长(17.79 cm)；自然死亡系数估计值为0.74，总死亡系数为2.62，当前捕捞死亡系数为1.88。基于以上参数，构建了单位补充量渔获量YPR模型和单位补充量亲体生物量SSBR模型，随着F的增加，YPR先增大后减小，而SSBR则减少。银姑鱼生物学参考点F_0.1为0.78，F_max为3.43，F_20%为0.66，F_40%为0.33，可知当前捕捞强度远大于防止补充型过度捕捞警戒线F_20%。敏感性分析结果显示，自然死亡系数的不确定性将明显影响单位补充量模型的研究结果和相关生物学参考点的估算值，而不同选择性系数，尤其是开捕体长，也直接影响单位补充量模型的结果。研究表明，当前浙江南部近海银姑鱼种群已处于补充型过度捕捞状态，为维持渔业资源的可持续发展，建议适当减小开发力度，增大开捕体长；为提高资源状态评价的准确性，建议减小自然死亡系数的不确定性。本研究可为银姑鱼资源的养护和管理提供科学建议。     

台湾海峡及其邻近海域渔业资源管理的探讨

应用Schacfcr和Fox剩余产量模式及其由此衍生的生物经济模式和Gulland最适产量Y_(0.1)模式,分别估算了台湾海峡及其邻近海域渔业资源的最大持续产量、最大持续捕捞力量,最大经济产量、最大经济捕捞力量、最佳经济效益,最适产量、最适捕捞力量,并对各模式计算的诸项经济指标进行比较,讨论了渔业管理方案,确定了近期适合国情、省情的管理目标。     

Use of biological reference points for the conservation of Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar, in the River Lune, North West England

Abstract  The development and use of biological reference points (BRPs) for salmon, Salmo salar L., conservation on the River Lune, England were examined. The Lune supports recreational and net fisheries with annual catches averaging 1332 and 2146 salmon, respectively. Using models transported from other river systems, BRPs were developed that were exclusive to the Lune; specifically the number of eggs deposited and carrying capacity estimates for age 0+ and 1+ parr. The conservation limit was estimated at 11.9 million eggs, and to ensure that the conservation limit was exceeded 80% of the time, the management target was set at 14.4 million eggs (equivalent to ∼5000 adults). Between 1989 and 1998 the management target was exceeded in only 2 years. Comparison of juvenile salmon densities in 1991 and 1997 with estimates of carrying capacity indicated that 0+ and 1+ parr densities were at around 60% of carrying capacity and may relate to the number of eggs deposited in 1990 and 1996 being approximately 70% of the target value. From, and including, the 2000 fishing season, regulations to ensure that the conservation limit is met 4 years out of 5 were introduced. These consisted of a reduction from 26 to 12 haaf nets, from 10 to seven drift nets and a four-fish bag limit for the rod fishery. In the period between 2000 and 2004 there was a marked increase in the estimated number of salmon spawning and the management target value of ∼5000 spawning adults was exceeded in all years. There was also an increase in the juvenile salmon population. The estimated level of exploitation in the net and rod fisheries reduced from 29.9% to 13.8% and from 26.4% to 14.8% respectively, after the introduction of the regulations.     

Towards ecosystem-based fisheries management

Performance measures and reference points for the management of target species are now widely used in the fisheries of the developed world. To move us closer to an ecosystem‐based fisheries management framework, we look at the prospects for expanding current single‐species approaches for target species, by considering nontarget species. We also examine the development of performance measures and reference points for emergent ecosystem‐level properties. We conclude that the expansion of single‐species reference points to take account of the nontarget species of a fishery is tractable and desirable. In contrast, the use of performance measures for a single or a small selection of ecosystem metrics is not possible at present, owing to the absence of a clear understanding of their dynamics and a lack of underlying theory to explain their behaviour. However, recent methods that aggregate a wide range of metrics to provide an overall picture of the ecosystem status show promise and have a particular attraction because they have the potential to provide a framework for establishing a dialogue on management issues between all interested parties.     

Developing socioeconomic indicators for an ecosystem-based fisheries management approach: An application to the Korean large purse seine fishery

Developing socioeconomic indicators for ecosystem-based fisheries management is particularly important. This is because socioeconomic factors have direct effects on ecosystems, and ecosystems have direct effects on socioeconomic factors. Therefore, it is imperative that socioeconomic indicators are developed and evaluated in order to predict changes in ecosystems and to provide advice for effective fisheries management. In this study, socioeconomic indicators have been developed to be combined with biological and ecological indicators, in order to conduct the ecosystem-based fisheries assessment. In terms of socioeconomic indicators, five socioeconomic criteria were considered as important attributes of socioeconomic changes. These were economic production, business conditions, levels of income, the state of the market, and levels of employment. In order to establish reference points for the evaluation of indicators, target reference points and limit reference points were set through a comparison with other industries or other fisheries rather than by using the Traffic Light System (TLS) method, which has been used in many previous studies. In addition, on the basis of the application of developed indicators and reference points to the Korean large purse seine fishery, the socioeconomic conditions of the fishery and the usefulness of the indicators were evaluated and management implications were discussed.     

Indicators to support an ecosystem approach to fisheries

Indicators are needed to support the implementation of an ecosystem approach to fisheries (EAF), by providing information on the state of the ecosystem, the extent and intensity of effort or mortality and the progress of management in relation to objectives. Here, I review recent work on the development, selection and application of indicators and consider how indicators might support an EAF. Indicators should guide the management of fishing activities that have led to, or are most likely to lead to, unsustainable impacts on ecosystem components or attributes. The numbers and types of indicators used to support an EAF will vary among management regions, depending on resources available for monitoring and enforcement, and actual and potential fishing impacts. State indicators provide feedback on the state of ecosystem components or attributes and the extent to which management objectives, which usually relate to state, are met. State can only be managed if the relationships with fishing (pressure) and management (response) are known. Predicting such relationships is fundamental to developing a management system that supports the achievement of objectives. In a management framework supported by pressure, state and response indicators, the relationship between the value of an indicator and a target or limit reference point, reference trajectory or direction provides guidance on the management action to take. Values of pressure, state and response indicators may be affected by measurement, process, model and estimation error and thus different indicators, and the same indicators measured at different scales and in different ways, will detect true trends on different timescales. Managers can use several methods to estimate the effects of error on the probability of detecting true trends and/or to account for error when setting reference points, trajectories and directions. Given the high noise to signal ratio in many state indicators, pressure and response indicators would often guide short‐term management decision making more effectively, with state indicators providing longer‐term policy‐focused feedback on the effects of management action.     

Strong fisheries management and governance positively impact ecosystem status

Fisheries have had major negative impacts on marine ecosystems, and effective fisheries management and governance are needed to achieve sustainable fisheries, biodiversity conservation goals and thus good ecosystem status. To date, the IndiSeas programme (Indicators for the Seas) has focussed on assessing the ecological impacts of fishing at the ecosystem scale using ecological indicators. Here, we explore fisheries ‘Management Effectiveness’ and ‘Governance Quality’ and relate this to ecosystem health and status. We developed a dedicated expert survey, focused at the ecosystem level, with a series of questions addressing aspects of management and governance, from an ecosystem‐based perspective, using objective and evidence‐based criteria. The survey was completed by ecosystem experts (managers and scientists) and results analysed using ranking and multivariate methods. Results were further examined for selected ecosystems, using expert knowledge, to explore the overall findings in greater depth. Higher scores for ‘Management Effectiveness’ and ‘Governance Quality’ were significantly and positively related to ecosystems with better ecological status. Key factors that point to success in delivering fisheries and conservation objectives were as follows: the use of reference points for management, frequent review of stock assessments, whether Illegal, Unreported and Unregulated (IUU) catches were being accounted for and addressed, and the inclusion of stakeholders. Additionally, we found that the implementation of a long‐term management plan, including economic and social dimensions of fisheries in exploited ecosystems, was a key factor in successful, sustainable fisheries management. Our results support the thesis that good ecosystem‐based management and governance, sustainable fisheries and healthy ecosystems go together.     

运用SS3评估东太平洋大眼金枪鱼(Thunnus obesus)资源——复杂模型和简化模型的比较

大眼金枪鱼(Thunnus obesus)是东太平洋最重要的商业性金枪鱼鱼种,其资源评估采用的是结构复杂的Stock Synthesis 3模型(SS3).模型简化是提高资源评估效率的必要手段,但对大眼金枪鱼简化模型的效果尚未开展研究.本研究尝试从渔业数据结构的角度,将SS3复杂模型的23个渔业简化为仅含围网和延绳钓2个渔业,从而比较简化模型的评估能力.结果显示,简化模型能较为准确地描述大眼金枪鱼补充量、亲体量、捕捞死亡系数等主要时间序列的历史动态变化,对传统生物学参考点FMSY的估计也较为准确,且受陡度和自然死亡系数的影响较小,但对其他参考点的估算误差较大.陡度参数对简化模型基于Kobe图判断资源状态的准确性有重要影响,陡度较低时,简化模型能较为准确地判断资源状态.研究表明,权衡模型的评估能力和降低模型结构的复杂性,是大眼金枪鱼资源评估今后需要重点研究的任务之一.此外,对模型简化的效果评价,与采用的生物学参考点和资源状况判断标准的选择有关.     

Gulf menhaden (Brevoortia patronus) in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico: Fishery characteristics and biological reference points for management

Gulf menhaden, Brevoortia patronus, plays a key ecological role in the northern Gulf of Mexico and supports the second largest commercial fishery by weight in the United States. Here we describe that fishery and propose biological reference points (BRPs) for its management. The BRPs represent targets and limits of both fishing mortality rate (F) and population fecundity (Ψ), where target is defined as the management goal, and limit, a value to be avoided (F < F_Limit and Ψ > Ψ_Limit). We assess stock status relative to the BRPs by fitting a statistical catch-age model to fishery-dependent and fishery-independent data spanning 1964–2004. Results indicate that in the terminal year neither limit reference point is exceeded (F₂₀₀₄/F_Limit = 0.75 and Ψ₂₀₀₄/Ψ_Limit = 1.86). Of possible concern, however, is a recent increase in fishing mortality and decrease in population fecundity. With these trends, terminal values exceed their targets (F₂₀₀₄/F_Target = 1.16 and Ψ₂₀₀₄/Ψ_Target = 0.93), although by little relative to uncertainty in the estimates. Sensitivity analyses show these results are robust to model assumptions.     

A new role for MSY in single-species and ecosystem approaches to fisheries stock assessment and management

In 1977, Peter Larkin published his now‐famous paper, ‘An epitaph for the concept of maximum sustained yield’. Larkin criticized the concept of single‐species maximum sustained yield (MSY) for many reasons, including the possibility that it may not guard against recruitment failure, and the impossibility of maximising sustainable yields for all species simultaneously. However, in recent years, there has been a fundamental change in the perception of the fishing mortality associated with MSY (F_MSY) as a limit to be avoided rather than a target that can routinely be exceeded. The concept of F_MSY as a limit is embodied in several United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) agreements and guidelines, and has now been incorporated into the US Magnuson–Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act. As a result, the United States now requires the development of overfishing definitions based on biological reference points that treat the F_MSY as a limit reference point and must also define a lower limit on biomass below which rebuilding plans with strict time horizons must be developed. This represents a major paradigm shift from the previously mandated (but often unachieved) objective to simply maintain fishing mortalities at levels below those associated with recruitment overfishing. In many cases, it requires substantial reductions in current fishing mortality levels. Therefore, the necessity of the new paradigm is continually questioned. This paper draws on examples from several fisheries, but specifically focuses on the recent US experience illustrating the practical difficulties of reducing fishing mortality to levels below those corresponding to MSY. However, several studies suggest that even more substantial reductions in fishing mortality may be necessary if ecosystem considerations, such as multispecies interactions, maintenance of biodiversity and genetic diversity, and reduction of bycatch and waste, are taken into account. The pros and cons of moving beyond single‐species assessment and management are discussed. A US plan for improving stock assessments indicates that even a ‘basic’ objective such as ‘adequate baseline monitoring of all managed species’ may be extremely costly. Thus, the suggestion of Larkin (1983, 1997) that the costs of research and management should not exceed 10–20% of the landed value of the catch may preclude comprehensive ecosystem management. More importantly, neither single‐species nor ecosystem‐based fisheries management is likely to improve appreciably unless levels of fishing capacity are aligned with resource productivity, as is currently being promoted by FAO and several individual nations.     

Reducing seabird bycatch in longline, trawl and gillnet fisheries

With an increasing number of seabird species, particularly albatross and petrels, becoming threatened, a reduction of fishery impacts on these species is essential for their future survival. Here, mitigation methods to reduce and avoid seabird bycatch are assessed in terms of their ability to reduce bycatch rates and their economic viability for longline, trawl and gillnet fisheries worldwide. Factors influencing the appropriateness and effectiveness of a mitigation device include the fishery, vessel, location, seabird assemblage present and season of year. As yet, there is no single magic solution to reduce or eliminate seabird bycatch across all fisheries: a combination of measures is required, and even within a fishery there is likely to be refinement of techniques by individual vessels in order to maximize their effectiveness at reducing seabird bycatch. In longline demersal and pelagic fisheries, a minimum requirement of line weighting that achieves hook sink rates minimizing seabird bycatch rates should be tailored with a combination of strategic offal and discard management, bird‐scaring lines (BSLs) and night‐setting, particulary in Southern Hemisphere fisheries. Urgent investigation is needed into more effective measures at reducing seabird interactions with trawl nets and gill nets. In trawl fisheries, a combination of offal and discard management, the banning of net monitoring cables, paired BSLs, and a reduction in the time the net is on or near the surface are likely to be the most effective in reducing seabird interactions with the warp cables and net. Few seabird bycatch reduction methods have been developed for gillnet fisheries, although increasing the visibility of the net has been shown to reduce seabird bycatch. Further studies are required to determine the efficacy of this technique and its influence on target species catch rates.     

A stochastic surplus production model in continuous time

Surplus production modelling has a long history as a method for managing data‐limited fish stocks. Recent advancements have cast surplus production models as state‐space models that separate random variability of stock dynamics from error in observed indices of biomass. We present a stochastic surplus production model in continuous time (SPiCT), which in addition to stock dynamics also models the dynamics of the fisheries. This enables error in the catch process to be reflected in the uncertainty of estimated model parameters and management quantities. Benefits of the continuous‐time state‐space model formulation include the ability to provide estimates of exploitable biomass and fishing mortality at any point in time from data sampled at arbitrary and possibly irregular intervals. We show in a simulation that the ability to analyse subannual data can increase the effective sample size and improve estimation of reference points relative to discrete‐time analysis of aggregated annual data. Finally, subannual data from five North Sea stocks are analysed with particular focus on using residual analysis to diagnose model insufficiencies and identify necessary model extensions such as robust estimation and incorporation of seasonality. We argue that including all known sources of uncertainty, propagation of that uncertainty to reference points and checking of model assumptions using residuals are critical prerequisites to rigorous fish stock management based on surplus production models.