把不确定性引入生物学参考点F0.1和Fmax的估计以评估东海带鱼渔业资源

东海带鱼(Trichiurus haumela)是东海区重要经济鱼类之一,目前还没有研究在生物学参考点F0.1和Fmax的估计中引入不确定性并在此情况下对东海区带鱼渔业资源进行量化评估。文章应用蒙特卡罗模拟方法研究了渔业数据中不同水平的不确定性和不同初次捕捞年龄对F0.1和Fmax估计的影响,用其与现在的捕捞死亡系数Fcur做比较,初步评估了东海带鱼渔业资源。计算结果表明,高水平的不确定性将会增加在F0.1和Fmax估计中的差异,从而使其被定义为过度捕捞的可能性减小。经过比较表明,F0.1比Fmax是一更好的参考点,且东海区带鱼渔业明显处于过度捕捞状态。不同初次捕捞年龄下单位补充量渔获量的变化情况的研究表明,增大初次捕捞年龄可以减小现在的捕捞死亡率大于参考点死亡率的概率,从而增大初次捕捞年龄可以改善现在捕捞过度的资源状况。

Stock assessment of the hairtail ( Trichiurus haumela) fishery in the East China Sea by incorporating uncertainty into the estimation of the biological reference points F0.1 and Fmax

The status of the hairtail (Trichiurus haumela) fishery in the East China Sea has not been quantitatively determined using biological reference points, despite its commercial importance and declining stock abundances since the mid 1990s. This is an attempt to incorporate uncertainty into the estimation of F0.1 and Fmax using Monte Carlo method and make use of the results in the fishery management. We incorporated random variation to simulate uncertainties in the fishery data. The results showed that high levels of uncertainty increased variations in F0.1 and Fmax estimation, which led to a decrease in the probability that the fishery was defined as overfished. We then compared current fishing mortality Fcur with F0.1 and Fmax and found that the hairtail fishery is being overexploited. The changes of CPUE at various tc revealed that increasing tc reduced the probability that Fcur is greater than FBRP, for which we concluded that increasing tc can improve the stock status of the hairtail fishery.