Viability and patch occupancy of a swamp rabbit metapopulation at the northern edge of its distribution

Swamp rabbits (Sylvilagus aquaticus) are state-endangered in Indiana, USA, and population decline has been attributed to habitat loss. We conducted pellet surveys as part of a long-term survey effort that has been conducted at approximate 10-year intervals over the last 40 years. We modeled patch occupancy and conducted a spatially-explicit population viability analysis (PVA). Although occupancy of individual patches varied over time, occupancy rate has been constant for the last 30 years, and Indiana swamp rabbits exist as a metapopulation that appears to be stable. Metapopulation dynamics were best characterized as being stationary, but area was an important factor in extinction rates; occupied patches (142 ± 37 ha) were significantly larger (P = 0.01) than unoccupied patches (79 ± 20 ha). We did not find strong support for models with colonization rates as a function of distance to neighboring patches, nor was distance to contiguous patches of habitat significantly different (P = 0.12) for occupied and unoccupied sites. Population viability analysis corroborated our findings based on occupancy modeling, and evaluation of the PVA model using occupancy data for the period 1985–2006 resulted in predictions that nearly matched our field observations (33% observed patch occupancy vs. 25% predicted patch occupancy). Population viability was most sensitive to reductions in survival and fecundity rates, but was otherwise robust to changes in parameters such as initial abundance and carrying capacity. Our findings provide novel insights into a poorly studied member of Sylvilagus and into species metapopulation dynamics at the edge of the range.     

Thresholds in landscape parameters: occurrence of the white-browed treecreeper Climacteris affinis in Victoria, Australia

The concept of critical thresholds of habitat loss has recently received considerable attention in conservation biology and landscape ecology, yet empirical examples of thresholds are scarce. Threatened species management could benefit from recognition of thresholds because conditions under which populations are at risk can be specified. In this study, 56 woodland patches in north-west Victoria were surveyed for the white-browed treecreeper Climacteris affinis, a threatened insectivorous bird of the semi-arid zone of southern Australia. Comparisons with historic records indicate the species’ range is contracting in Victoria. Using logistic regression and hierarchical partitioning, two models of patch occupancy were developed. Tree species composition was an important factor in both models, confirming the treecreepers’ affinity for belah Casuarina pauper and slender cypress-pine Callitris gracilis-buloke Allocasuarina luehmannii woodlands in north-west Victoria. The first model emphasized the importance of demographic isolation: probability of patch occupancy decreased with distance to the nearest occupied patch. A threshold response in demographic isolation was apparent. In agricultural landscapes, most suitable woodland patches within 3 km of an occupied patch were occupied, whereas patches beyond the threshold were vacant. The threshold distance increased to a minimum of 8 km in a matrix of native vegetation, suggesting landscape context affects the response of white-browed treecreepers to habitat fragmentation. Demographic isolation is a quasi-dependent variable and therefore a second model was developed using surrogate variables for demographic isolation. A positive relationship with the proportion of woodland cover in the landscape (100 km²) emerged as the pre-eminent explanatory factor. Depending on woodland quality, a threshold of patch occupancy was apparent at levels of woodland cover between 15 and 25%. However, belah and slender cypress-pine-buloke woodlands now cover only 10% of their original extent in the region. These results highlight the inter-dependence of patch isolation with the amount and quality of habitat in the landscape and the implications this has for maintaining functional connectivity. The retention (or restoration) of suitable habitat is the critical issue for conservation of the white-browed treecreeper, but in landscapes below the threshold of habitat cover, viability of local populations may be influenced by the configuration and quality of remaining habitat.     

Patch dynamics and the timing of colonization-abandonment events by male Kirtland’s Warblers in an early succession habitat

Habitat colonization and abandonment affects the distribution of a species in space and time, ultimately influencing the duration of time habitat is used and the total area of habitat occupied in any given year. Both aspects have important implications to long-term conservation planning. The importance of patch isolation and area to colonization-extinction events is well studied, but little information exists on how changing regional landscape structure and population dynamics influences the variability in the timing of patch colonization and abandonment events. We used 26 years of Kirtland’s Warbler (Dendroica kirtlandii) population data taken during a habitat restoration program (1979-2004) across its historical breeding range to examine the influence of patch attributes and temporal large-scale processes, specifically the rate of habitat turnover and fraction of occupied patches, on the year-to-year timing of patch colonization and abandonment since patch origin. We found the timing of patch colonization and abandonment was influenced by patch and large-scale regional factors. In this system, larger patches were typically colonized earlier (i.e., at a younger age) and abandoned later than smaller patches. Isolated patches (i.e., patches farther from another occupied patch) were generally colonized later and abandoned earlier. Patch habitat type affected colonization and abandonment; colonization occurred at similar patch ages between plantation and wildfire areas (9 and 8.5 years, respectively), but plantations were abandoned at earlier ages (13.9 years) than wildfire areas (16.4 years) resulting in shorter use. As the fraction of occupied patches increased, patches were colonized and abandoned at earlier ages. Patches were abandoned at older ages when the influx of new habitat patches was at low and high rates. Our results provide empirical support for the temporal influence of patch dynamics (i.e., patch destruction, creation, and succession) on local colonization and extinction processes that help explain large-scale patterns of habitat occupancy. Results highlight the need for practitioners to consider the timing of habitat restoration as well as total amount and spatial arrangement of habitat to sustain populations.     

Absent or undetected? Effects of non-detection of species occurrence on wildlife-habitat models

Presence-absence data are used widely in analysis of wildlife-habitat relationships. Failure to detect a species’ presence in an occupied habitat patch is a common sampling problem when the population size is small, individuals are difficult to sample, or sampling effort is limited. In this paper, the influence of non-detection of occurrence on parameter estimates of logistic regression models of wildlife-habitat relationships was assessed using analytical analysis and simulations. Two patterns of non-detection were investigated: (1) a random distribution of non-detection among occupied patches; and (2) a non-random distribution of non-detection in which the probability of detecting a species in an occupied patch covaried with measurable habitat variables. Our results showed that logistic regression models of wildlife-habitat relationships were sensitive to even low levels of non-detection in occupancy data. Both analytic and simulation studies show that non-detection yields bias in parameter estimation of logistic regression models. More importantly, the direction of bias was affected by the underlying pattern of non-detection and whether the habitat variable was positively or negatively related to occupancy. For a positive habitat coefficient, a random distribution of non-detection yielded negative bias in estimation, whereas linkage of the probability of non-detection to habitat covariates produced positive bias. For a negative habitat coefficient, the pattern was reversed, with a random distribution of non-detection leading to positive bias in estimation. A release-recapture livetrapping study of small mammals in central Indiana, USA, was used to illustrate the magnitude of non-detection in a typical field sampling protocol with varying levels of sampling intensity. Estimates of non-detection error ranged from 0 to 23% for seven species after 5 days of sampling. We suggest that for many sampling situations, relationships between probability of detection and habitat covariates need to be established to correctly interpret results of wildlife-habitat models.     

Determinants of bird community composition on patches in the suburbs of Paris, France

The ecological processes responsible for the spatial assemblages of breeding bird communities in urban landscapes are more and more investigated. Indeed, understanding these processes is imperative to plan relevant management policies. We investigated breeding bird communities on 67 patches in the suburbs of Paris, France. We examined the role of patch characteristics and geographic distance between patches in determining similarity between bird assemblages. To do this, we proposed a new SØrensen similarity index based on estimators of change in community composition taking into account the detection probability of species. The patch occupancy by sedentary and migratory species was also estimated to compare their sensitivity to urbanization. Patches close to each other supported more similar bird assemblages, suggesting an effect of the spatial distribution of patches on bird dispersal and a posteriori on local community composition. Accounting for spatial location of patches, bird assemblage similarity was related to the similarity of the surrounding level of urbanization but not to the similarity of patch size or to the similarity of patch vegetation. The mean estimated occupancy rate of sedentary species was higher than that of migratory species in the whole study area. While sedentary species occupied patches surrounded by both moderate and high levels of urbanization, migratory ones primarily occupied patches surrounded by moderate levels of urbanization. Human choices in degrees, styles, and extent of urbanization, including designation and design of patches within an urban matrix, affect the composition of local bird communities.     

Spatial population structure of the Cabrera vole in Mediterranean farmland: The relative role of patch and matrix effects

There is mounting evidence that both patch networks and the intervening matrix influence species persistence in fragmented landscapes, though the relative importance of each of these factors in determining spatial population structure remains poorly understood. This study examined this issue using a three-year data set on the distribution of Cabrera voles (Microtus cabrerae) in Mediterranean farmland. The spatial pattern appeared consistent with a metapopulation structure, as voles occupied discrete tall herb patches scattered across the agricultural landscape, where local extinctions and colonizations induced temporal changes in occupancy patterns. Patch dynamics determined deviations from classical metapopulation assumptions, with over half the extinctions resulting from agricultural disturbance or vegetation succession, and recolonizations often occurring after the recovery of suitable habitat conditions sometime after disturbance. Occupancy in undisturbed patches was more stable, with vole occurrence in one year strongly reflecting that in the previous year. Overall, occupancy increased with both patch size and connectivity, but the unique contribution of patch variables to explain variation in vole occurrence was far smaller than that of matrix attributes. Voles occurred more often in patches surrounded by natural pastures, while prevalence declined with increasing cover by shrubland, pine plantations, improved pastures and grazed cropland. It is hypothesised that unfavourable land uses may increase the effective isolation of habitat patches through increased predation risk of dispersing voles. Conservation of the Cabrera vole in Mediterranean farmland should thus strive to maintain lightly grazed fields surrounding well-connected networks of suitable habitat patches.     

An empirical evaluation of the area and isolation paradigm of metapopulation dynamics

Much of metapopulation theory assumes that the persistence of individual populations in a metapopulation, and persistence of the metapopulation as a whole, is best modeled by the area of habitat patches and their isolation. Estimates of isolation typically include a measure of geographic distance and a measure of either population size or patch area. This “area and isolation paradigm” assumes a functional relationship between the area of a patch and its extinction probability, and between isolation of a patch and its colonization probability. Although these assumptions are fundamental to use of incidence function models of metapopulation dynamics, the assumptions have been validated in only a small number of studies. We tested the ability of area and isolation to predict extinction and colonization patterns using multiple-year occupancy data for 10 species from three taxonomic groups (butterflies, amphibians, and birds). We examined 13 potential models of metapopulation dynamics. All models included four basic parameters: occupancy during the first year of the survey, probability of extinction, probability of colonization, and single-visit detection probability. In eight models, each parameter was either constant or time-dependent. Five models included a patch-level covariate of extinction probability (patch area or population size), colonization probability (connectivity, the inverse of isolation), or both. Extinction patterns generally were predicted more effectively as a function of local population size than as a function of patch area, a constant probability of extinction, or a time-dependent probability of extinction. In most cases, inclusion of connectivity as a patch-level covariate did not improve predictions of colonization patterns. We estimated single-visit detection probabilities for all species in our analyses, thus providing evidence-based guidelines for the refinement of future monitoring protocols.     

Hollow selection by vertebrate fauna in forests of southeastern Australia and implications for forest management

We examined the types of hollows, and types of hollow-bearing trees, occupied by vertebrate fauna in temperate eucalypt forests in southeastern Australia. Hollow-bearing trees are selected for retention in wood production forests to mitigate the effects of logging on hole-nesting fauna. A total of 471 hollows was examined in 228 trees felled as part of routine logging operations. Fauna had occupied 43% of all hollows (?2cm minimum entrance width; ?5cm depth). Hollows with small (2-5cm), medium (6-10cm) and large (>10cm) minimum entrance widths had occupancy rates of 29, 44 and 62%, respectively. The internal dimensions of hollows, especially hollow depth, were the best predictors of hollow occupancy, even when variables measured at the tree and site levels were considered. Fauna occupied 57% of all hollow-bearing trees. In a Poisson regression model, the number of hollows in trees that contained evidence of occupancy was positively associated with: (1) the total number of hollows visible in the tree; (2) the proportion of the tree's crown that contained dead branches; and (3) tree diameter. The number of different vertebrate species that occupied trees was positively associated with the same explanatory variables except tree diameter. Thus, our results suggest that trees with multiple hollows and dead branches in the crown should be preferentially selected for occupancy by hollow-using fauna. Our results suggest that trees with the largest diameter are not the most suitable for retention. Possibly because they contain proportionally fewer hollows with small entrances, which are favoured by some vertebrate species.     

Resource availability, matrix quality, microclimate, and spatial pattern as predictors of patch use by the Karner blue butterfly

Determination of which aspects of habitat quality and habitat spatial arrangement best account for variation in a species’ distribution can guide management for organisms such as the Karner blue butterfly (Lycaeides melissa samuelis), a federally endangered subspecies inhabiting savannas of Midwest and Eastern United States. We examined the extent to which three sets of predictors, (1) larval host plant (Lupinus perennis, wild lupine) availability, (2) characteristics of the matrix surrounding host plant patches, and (3) factors affecting a patch’s thermal environment, accounted for variation in lupine patch use by Karner blues at Indiana Dunes National Lakeshore, Indiana and Fort McCoy, Wisconsin, USA. Each predictor set accounted for 7-13% of variation in patch occupancy by Karner blues at both sites and in larval feeding activity among patches at Indiana Dunes. Patch area, an indicator of host plant availability, was an exception, accounting for 30% of variation in patch occupancy at Indiana Dunes. Spatially structured patterns of patch use across the landscape accounted for 9-16% of variation in patch use and explained more variation in larval feeding activity than did spatial autocorrelation between neighboring patches. Because of this broader spatial trend across sites, a given management action may be more effective in promoting patch use in some portions of the landscape than in others. Spatial trend, resource availability, matrix quality, and microclimate, in general, accounted for similar amounts of variation in patch use and each should be incorporated into habitat management planning for the Karner blue butterfly.     

Foraging behaviour and habitat use by Antechinus flavipes and Sminthopsis murina (Marsupialia: Dasyuridae) in response to predation risk in eucalypt woodland

We examined the foraging behaviour and habitat use of two species of small Australian mammal (Antechinus flavipes and Sminthopsis murina) in response to predation risk in remnant eucalypt woodland. Predation risk was manipulated by providing refuge in the form of ground level wire netting to reduce risks from avian and mammalian predators. Giving-up-densities (GUD) using artificial food trays (20 mealworms in 1.5 l vermiculite) quantified the foraging behaviour in response to predation risk, by measuring the quitting harvest rate. Both A. flavipes and S. murina had lower GUDs (number of mealworms remaining) under the netting than in the open, most likely because these areas have lower predation risk. Animals also made greater visits to tracking tunnels under the netting compared to in the open. Tracking animal movements using fluorescent pigments also revealed preference for natural microhabitats that were structurally complex with animals moving most where logs and rock crevices were present. These results suggest that small mammals may use habitat structure to reduce their risks of predation. If future studies are able to demonstrate commensurate population-level responses, manipulation of habitat may be a useful management option to complement the direct control of exotic predators such as foxes and feral cats.     

Regional scale effects of human density and forest disturbance on large-bodied vertebrates throughout the Yucatán Peninsula, Mexico

The occupancy probability of 35 large-bodied bird and mammal species was examined in relation to patch- and landscape-scale habitat and disturbance variables in 147 forest patches distributed throughout the Mexican Yucatán Peninsula. Occupancy was assessed on the basis of interviews with local informants. The most important predictors of vertebrate species richness, composition, and patch occupancy were human population density and the extent and quality of forest cover. Most forest species responded positively to forest extent, while felids in particular were sensitive to human population density. However, the effects of human density on patch occupancy operated at extremely local scales. Effects were stronger at a smaller grain size, offering optimistic prospects for conservation strategies that incorporate human population effects. Three arboreal frugivores (Ateles geoffroyi, Alouatta pigra, and Ramphastos sulfuratus) were strongly associated with total basal area of trees bearing fleshy fruits. The degree of hunting pressure was not related to human population density, and affected the occupancy probability of three game species, two of which (Mazama spp., Crax rubra) are among the most preferred prey across the Yucatán Peninsula. Levels of patch occupancy across this region varied considerably among species, and were best explained by body size and degree of forest habitat specificity, large-bodied species and habitat specialists being the most vulnerable. This study provides a quantitative assessment of the conservation potential of large vertebrates in Mesoamerica and identifies disturbance-sensitive species. This can inform regional-scale conservation planning at a time when low deforestation in parts of the Yucatán Peninsula still provides a narrow window of conservation opportunity given the rapid human population growth.     

Small mammals in agricultural landscapes of Prince Edward Island (Canada): Effects of habitat characteristics at three different spatial scales

We examined the influence of habitat characteristics at the microhabitat, macrohabitat, and landscape spatial scales on small mammals occurring in 12 forest patches within four agricultural landscapes of Prince Edward Island (Canada). Landscape features were important determinants of small mammal variables at all levels, but especially at the community level, whereas microhabitat characteristics tended to influence small mammals at the population level. Macrohabitat characteristics had only minor effects on small mammals occurring in our study sites. Species richness was most strongly influenced by patch area, reaching a threshold at forest patches of roughly 8-10 ha. The proportions of both forest and hedgerow cover within 400 m from the study site were also significant determinants of small mammals species diversity, possibly reflecting their ability to perceive suitable habitats, forage in areas outside the forest patches, and/or disperse in agricultural landscapes. At least one small mammal species (Napaeozapus insignis) benefitted from the presence of agricultural fields at distances up to 1000 m. Tamias striatus benefitted from the presence of hedgerow cover within 400 m from forest patches, possibly allowing them to move between forest patches. Clearly, the maintenance of forest patches of 8-10 ha and of forest cover within 400 m from them is fundamental for the conservation of small mammals inhabiting agricultural landscapes on the Island. Conservation strategies should also consider the establishment of more effective regulations to prevent and/or reduce hedgerow removal on Prince Edward Island.     

Thresholds in selection of breeding habitat by the Eurasian treecreeper (Certhia familiaris)

Assessment of habitat thresholds is a topical issue in ecology, both from theoretical and applied perspectives. We examined how forest structure influences selection of breeding habitat in the Eurasian treecreeper (Certhia familiaris). It is an old-growth forest passerine, which can be considered an umbrella species. Habitat selection data, covering five breeding seasons, were collected from a study area across three spatial scales: (a) territory core scale (a radius of 30 m), (b) territory scale (a radius of 200 m) and (c) large scale (a radius of 500 m). Logistic regression analyses revealed that the radii of 30 and 200 m from the nest were the most important spatial scales for the forest patch occupancy. A loss of forest habitat and a low circumference of stems within the territory decreased the probability of occupancy. There was a distinct threshold in the amount of forest cover on forest patch occupancy when the volume of timber was taken into account. At low timber volumes (0-151 m³/ha) the amount of forest cover was negatively related to the occupancy rate of forest patches. This negative relationship changed abruptly when the volume of timber exceeded 152 m³/ha, after which forest cover had a positive effect on the occupancy rate of forest patches. This is a new way to examine habitat thresholds in relation to forest cover. Furthermore, as debated in recent literature, treecreepers also tend to respond to habitat loss rather than to changes in habitat configuration, which stresses the need for habitat restoration and conservation. Moreover, our results emphasize the importance of within-territory structure over the characteristics of the habitat matrix in selection of breeding habitat.     

Coarse bed material patch evolution in low-order,ephemeral channels

In river channel beds composed of a wide range of grain sizes, the bed material is often arranged in discrete patches discernable by relative texture. These bed material patches are the primary source of entrainable coarse sediment within the channel system and their composition and size have been found to influence the composition and rate of sediment transport. Twelve coarse (gravel–cobble) sediment patches distributed throughout the channel network within a 4.53 ha watershed in southeastern Arizona were monitored for 2 years. Changes in patch area and grain size were measured and painted patch grains were monitored to confirm that patch grains were mobilized during flow. Individual coarse bed material patches exhibited variable persistence during flows with return frequencies ranging from approximately 1 year to 4.6 years. While no patch fully dispersed during the study period, two new patches formed. Most coarse patches remained relatively stable in area and grain-size distribution despite the entrainment of patch grains as lost grains were sufficiently replaced with sediment from upstream. Because of the grain replacement process and the effect of other sediment supply dynamics, the changes in patch area and grain-size distribution display a complex relationship with the magnitude of predicted grain mobilization within each patch. Results indicate that relative stability varies from patch to patch, influenced by the balance of patch grains transported out of the patch and the deposition of new grains into the patch. Predictive models of coarse sediment transport and yield that assume the channel bed is a fixed source of sediment supply may not adequately capture the sediment dynamics within patchy channel beds and should be used with caution when applied to these environments due to the possibility of patch instability as documented in this study.     

The influence of social behaviour, dispersal and landscape fragmentation on population structure in a sedentary bird

White-browed Babblers Pomatostomus superciliosus lived in groups of up to 13 birds in the highly fragmented landscape of the WA wheatbelt. Contacts between these groups and sexual differences in dispersal behaviour interacted with the landscape mosaic at a number of spatial scales to produce a hierarchically structured population with four levels of organization: (1) groups, which were the basic breeding unit; (2) social neighbourhoods, where group interactions were frequent, and male dispersal and female post-natal and breeding dispersal occurred; (3) local population neighbourhoods, which contained social neighbourhoods between which female natal dispersal was frequent; and (4) metapopulations, which contained local population neighbourhoods between which dispersal was infrequent. The boundaries of these structural units, with the exception of the group, were not discrete and were influenced by the structure of the landscape they occupied.Interactions between groups occupying different patches were rare, and the frequency of group interactions was lower in small patches. Male dispersal was restricted to groups within the same patch or in patches less than 1 km apart. Therefore, decreasing patch size and increasing patch isolation resulted in smaller social neighbourhoods. Males generally dispersed to smaller groups and these dispersals may have enhanced the productivity of these groups by increasing their size. Therefore, habitat loss and fragmentation are likely to disrupt social neighbourhoods resulting in lower levels of social interaction and reduced productivity.The size and configuration of local populations were dependent on female natal dispersal, which in turn depended on landscape connectivity. White-browed Babblers used remnant vegetation in preference to other landscape elements when dispersing, but were not dependent solely on corridors. The permeability to dispersal of the boundaries between remnants and agricultural vegetation was dependent on patch configuration. Changes in boundary permeability were found to alter connectivity between habitat patches in a complex and asymmetric manner. Therefore, it is essential to consider landscape connectivity in a spatially explicit context for species that use some elements of the landscape mosaic in preference to others when dispersing.Habitat loss and fragmentation impose a complex set of changes, at a number of different scales, to processes that affect aspects of a species' life history. In order to manage species in fragmented agricultural landscapes it is necessary to understand the hierarchical structure of their populations, and how processes affect the different organizational levels within this structure.     

The role of fragment area and isolation in the conservation of heathland species

Heathland area in the northwestern part of Belgium has been strongly reduced during the past 200 years, and the remaining heathland is forced back into several small and isolated relics. In this study, we investigated how the fragmentation of these heathlands affects the distribution patterns of heathland plant species. Furthermore, we tested whether differences in patch occupancy patterns could be explained in terms of life history traits related to dispersal capacity and persistence. Multivariate logistic regression models showed that the incidence of almost three quarters of the species was influenced by fragmentation. For the majority of these species, isolation was the most important factor determining their presence or absence in a heathland patch. Differences between the species in isolation-sensitivity could be attributed mainly to differences in seed bank characteristics, with species having a long living seed bank being less affected by isolation. In contrast, species having mechanisms facilitating long distance dispersal were as much affected by isolation as species lacking these mechanisms.Our results suggest that for the majority of the species extinction in a patch can be prevented by dispersal from neighbouring patches. Further isolation of the patches should therefore be prevented and connectivity between the patches needs to be assured. As almost none of the species is affected by a declining patch area, for most even small patches are important for their survival. Hence, conservation efforts should focus not only on large heathlands.     

Metapopulation dynamics and threatened species management: Why does the broad-toothed rat (Mastacomys fuscus) persist?

Many species that exist patchily across the landscape are declining due to incremental losses of their constituent sub-populations and increasing isolation of those that remain. For threatened species with such patchy metapopulation structure, it is particularly important to identify key habitat patches and understand what factors govern their occupancy so that their management can be targeted and effective. In this paper, we describe the spatial and temporal distribution of an endangered population of broad-toothed rats (Mastacomys fuscus) at Barrington Tops, New South Wales, and model its dynamics using metapopulation theory. The study population occurs patchily in swamps on the Barrington Plateau. Using faecal pellet searches, live-trapping and data from previous surveys, we identified 12 swamps where M. fuscus persists and 13 where there has been a history of colonisation and extinction. The species now appears to be entirely absent from seven of these latter swamps. Using logistic regression and model selection procedures, we found the strongest predictor of the presence of M. fuscus to be proximity to the nearest occupied swamp. Persistence declined strongly with swamp isolation, probably due to low success of individuals dispersing through the intervening habitat. These patterns support the interpretation that swamp patches at Barrington Tops contain a functioning but fragile metapopulation of M. fuscus. We predict continued loss of remaining sub-populations in peripheral swamps if current dynamics continue, and recommend research to identify the factors that are limiting dispersal and re-colonisation so that the species’ decline can be slowed and reversed.     

Patterns of spatiotemporal change in large mammal distribution and abundance in the southern Western Ghats, India

Large mammals face high risks of anthropogenic extinction owing to their larger body mass and associated life history traits. Recent worldwide mammal declines have highlighted the conservation importance of effective assessments of trends in distribution and abundance of species. Yet reliable data depicting the nature and extent of changes in population parameters is sparse, primarily due to logistical problems in covering large areas and difficulties in obtaining reliable information at large spatial scales, particularly over time. We used key informant surveys to generate detection histories for 18 species of large mammals (body mass > 2 kg) at two points in time (present and 30 years ago) in the Southern subregion of the Western Ghats global biodiversity hotspot. Multiple-season occupancy models were used to assess temporal trends in occupancy, detectability and vital rates of extinction and colonization for each species. Our results show significant declines in distribution for large carnivores, the Asian elephant and endemic ungulates and primates. There is a significant decline in detectability for 16 species, which suggests a decline in their abundance. These patterns of change in distribution and abundance repeat in our assessments of spatial variation in occupancy dynamics between the three contiguous forest complexes and two human-dominated landscapes into which the southern Western Ghats has been fragmented. Extinction rates are highest in the human-dominated landscapes. Declines in abundance for several species suggest the presence of extinction debts, which may soon be repaid with imminent range contractions and subsequent species extinctions unless immediate remedial conservation measures are taken. Detection/non-detection surveys of key informants used in an occupancy modeling framework provide potential for rapid conservation status assessments of multiple species across large spatial scales over time.