海洋渔业上市企业内在价值评估探讨——基于DDM和市盈率模型

近期国务院发布关于促进海洋渔业持续健康发展的若干意见中提出,支持符合条件的海洋渔业企业上市融资。这意味着日后我国海洋渔业企业将更进一步的活跃在资本市场上。对上市海洋渔业企业内在价值进行投评估分析,有利于投资者更多的关注上市公司本身的经营行为和业绩表现。论文基于DDM和市盈率模,使用个股进行实证分析研究即通过使用两种不同的模型对獐子岛的内在价值进行估计,比较目前市场上獐子岛股票的交易均价提出投资建议。     

Analysis on the Game of Supervision on the Listed Company''s Administrator

When studying on the supervision on listed company performance manipulation, the administrator's role has been emphasized increasingly. By setting up a game model, the article analyzes the performance manipulation made by the listed company's administrator. The analysis shows that the optimal performance manipulation strategy taken by the administrator is determined by the profits obtained by China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) and the prior probability of the listed company performance categories made by CSRC, while the optimal supervision strategy taken by CSRC is determined by the final profits of the listed company. Thus, it is obvious that there is a mutual guessing and influencing relationship between the listed company's administrator and CSRC. Finally, the game model constructed is further analyzed by employing it in the real cases.     

An Catastrophe Model of the Stock's Inherent Value

An catastrophe model of stock to analysize inherent value of stock is established. Using the model, the investors can easily choose high quality stocks, and reduce risk. In addition, a example is provided.     

Empirical Study on Corporate Ownership Structure, Performance and Governance

Based on the samples of 171 listed companies in Shenzhen and Shanghai stock markets, the paper mainly focuses on the relation between the corporate ownership structure and corporate performance. The result shows that there are negative correlation between state ownership and corporate performance, and positive correlation between legal person ownership and corporate value, there are better corporate value in the higher centralized ownership company, and the corporate value will be improved when the biggest shareholder have proper shares.     

Method for Analyzing the Value of Stocks of Listed Real Estate Companies

The new listed real estate companies will greatly influence the real estate stocks in Shenzhen and Shanghai Stock Exchanges. Based on this special background, this paper established an operable model by comprehensively applying the Grey Theory, DEA Appraisement and its sequence arrangement method to compare various values of real estate stocks.     

上市公司股权结构对业绩影响的实证研究——基于制造业公司的经验数据

股权结构研究是公司治理结构研究中的核心问题。选取制造业上市公司2010—2012年3年间数据作为研究样本,以股权结构特征作为解释变量,通过主成分因子分析法构建公司业绩指标,同时以公司规模和年度作为相关控制变量。在创建多元线性回归模型的基础上,对国内上市制造企业当前的股权结构、绩效关系等进行了详细的实证研究,对实证结果提出了政策建议,为股权结构对业绩影响的研究提供参考。     

Application of Cluster Analysis in Stock Investment

The primary methods of stock investment analysis are fundamental analysis ,technic analsis and portfolio investment analysis.Based on analyzing the applicability and limitation of these methods, the paper is applying the cluster analysis in the stock investment, and pointing out it is a feasible and effective way to give advices to stock investment. Cluster analysis firstly looks into the industry factor, company factor, profitability and pullulation of each stock, so people can discover the investment value through stock'immanent value which is decided by their fundamental characters.To gather the similar stocks,a synthetic evaluation index system is erected to measure the similarity of stock all-roundly and objectively. Cluster analysis can help investors hold the whole character of stocks, make certain of investing scale and suppose the possible variation of stock price.So it will be easier for investors to choose investing occasion.     

基于DEA模型的中国水产上市公司经营绩效评价研究

为了提高水产上市公司经营绩效和盈利状况。本研究运用数据包络分析(DEA)中的CCR模型和BCC模型对水产行业15家上市公司的技术、纯技术、规模效率进行了分析。结果表明：水产行业15家上市公司的综合效率值偏低,纯技术效率值较高,规模效率值偏低。并根据以上评价结果,结合水产行业现状,提出了培养龙头企业、使渔业增长方式由粗放式向集约式转变和优化产品结构等政策建议。     

The Study on the Shot and Long Term of Tactics to Perfect Independent Directors` System

The independent directors` system is regarded as a kind of way to perfect company's administration structure, China Securities Regulatory Commission introduces it into the listed company managing, and offer the great expectations. But the effect of the independent directors` system is not very good. So the game theory is used in this text. The game frame between independent directors and listed company administrative authority is structured and a short time of perfecting independent director's system and long-term tactics to factor influencing independent directors` system are educed through discussing the influence factors one by one.     

Dilemma and Choice: Consideration of the Real- estate Guaranty Company in China

With the implementation of the policy for house monetarization,the real-estate guaranty company develops quickly in our country.However,there exist many problems as it is a newly emerged thing in financial system of real estate.The problems are as follows: the estate security company is defined as a medium agency in legislature,which does not conform to its feature as financial business;the local restrictions will cause the decrease of credit,weakness in risk-taking capacity and supervision of the company.Such predicament hinders the development of the guaranty company seriously.In order to resolve these problems, the crucial way is to clarify the status of the guaranty company as a non-bank financial institution,and to set up a national guaranty company to offer official security to the people of low income and enhance internal and external supervision.Only through these steps can we realize the functions of the guaranty company for real estate and give full play of its potential function.     

甘肃定西市马铃薯产业发展评价及对策研究

立足区域比较优势,走产业化之路,发展商品农业经济,同样是不发达地区农业增效、农民增收以及破解“三农”问题的有效途径。文章通过对甘肃定西市马铃薯产业发展的优势条件和产业现状的评价,针对其发展中存在的深层问题,运用产业经济的理论方法,讨论了以科技进步为支撑、精深加工为先导、高度组织化为基础、社会化服务为条件、政府推动为保障的产业化发展策略。     

Dynamic scheduling method of vehicle air-conditioning assembly shop based on feedback control

By analyzing the inherent uncertainties, discrete uncertainties and external environmental uncertainties, a dual-feedback control strategy and the dynamic scheduling method are proposed to solve the dynamic scheduling problem of vehicle air-conditioning assembly shop under uncertainty. Considering the reentrant constraint, equipment capacity constraint, and time discrete constraint etc., the multi-objective scheduling model of vehicle air-conditioning assembly shop is set up,taken the earliness/tardiness, process time, production cost and quality loss as optimization objectives. According to the characteristic of the model, sectional chromosome encoding, crossover operator and mutation operator are designed to prevent the generation of illegal solutions and improve efficiency of the algorithm. An example is given to prove the feasibility and validity of the approach.     

Use of Gray Relating Method in the Evaluation of High-technological Listed Company

The price of our High-technological Listed Company has been fluctuated since 2000,many investors were exposed to tremendous loss. So, the researchers and the investors pay more and more attention to this question. We apply Gray Relating Method to the evaluation of High-technological Listed Company, firstly choose some key factors affecting the value of company, then build up the evaluating models. We check the model according to the actual data. The conclusion can offer investors consulting advise.     

计及电网停电风险的输电线路动态融冰决策方法

电网发生大面积冰灾情况时，多条输电线路存在覆冰故障隐患，电网稳定运行受到严重威胁，需要提前制定输电线路融冰方案，合理安排融冰顺序。针对此问题，分析输电线路覆冰继续运行给电网带来的停电风险，将与待融冰输电线路相关联的变电站的电气主接线展开，将传统削负荷模型改进后应用于输电网与变电站主接线的组合网络，建立断路器可靠性模型，计算靠后融冰线路因继续运行的电网停电风险；利用计及风速及降雨影响的输电线路覆冰增长预测模型，计算输电线路的覆冰率，根据覆冰率门槛值确定待融冰线路集，基于覆冰严重度模型构建系统全局的覆冰指数指标；综合考虑电网停电风险及系统全局覆冰指数建立输电线路融冰紧迫度指标，动态更新待融冰线路并决策融冰顺序。最后，以IEEE RBTS系统进行算例分析，验证了所提方法的可行性与合理性。     

非洲猪瘟疫情对生猪产业链上市公司市场价值的影响研究

[目的] 研究旨在应用实证方法分析非洲猪瘟疫情对生猪产业链上市公司市场价值造成的影响,进而得出疫情对生猪产业链上养殖、屠宰、加工、消费等环节利益相关者收益的影响。[方法]采用事件研究法,选取涉及生猪产业链上市公司,按主营业务统计为肉制品加工、养殖、饲料和兽药4种类型的32家相关上市公司,通过设计指标对生猪产业链上市公司股票异常收益率波动进行计算和检验。[结果]研究结果表明：非洲猪瘟疫情事件对生猪养殖行业的影响最大；对兽药行业的影响周期最长；肉制品加工行业的影响程度和周期仅次于兽药行业,对饲料行业的影响最小。[结论] “非洲猪瘟”事件对猪产业链上的饲料、养殖、肉制品加工、兽药类上市公司市场价值存在显著的负面影响。     

The Analytic Hierarchy Process of Evaluatingthe Quality of Construction Engineering

The quality of construction engineering has been emphasized more and more.In this paper,authors set up a practical,operative three_stage AHP model to give quantitative analyses of the determinations of quality of construction engineering.From the point of view of both theory and practice,it is proved that this approach has feasibility and practical value.     

基于GIS的河套灌区向日葵气候适宜性区划

利用河套灌区18年向日葵观测资料和相应气象资料,计算了向日葵各发育期气温、日照等要素,分析了各发育期适宜农业气象条件,并利用气候资料与气象产量建立了回归模型,通过地理信息系统将河套灌区向日葵种植进行了适宜分区。     

Including root architecture in a crop model improves predictions of spring wheat grain yield and above‐ground biomass under water limitations

Although the root length density (RLD) of crops depends on their root system architecture (RSA), the root growth modules of many 1D field crop models often ignored the RSA in the simulation of the RLD. In this study, two model set‐up scenarios were used to simulate the RLD, above‐ground biomass (AGB) and grain yield (GY) of water‐stressed spring wheat in Germany, aiming to investigate the impact of improved RLD on AGB and GY predictions. In scenario 1, SlimRoot, a root growth sub‐model that does not consider the RSA of the crop, was coupled to a Lintul5‐SlimNitrogen‐SoilCN‐Hillflow1D crop model combination. In scenario 2, SlimRoot was replaced with the Somma sub‐model which considered the RSA for simulating RLD. The simulated RLD, AGB and GY were compared with observations. Scenario 2 predicted the RLD, AGB and GY with an average root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.43 cm/cm³, 0.59 t/ha and 1.03 t/ha, respectively, against 1.03 cm/cm³, 1.20 t/ha and 2.64 t/ha for scenario 1. The lower RMSE under scenario 2 shows that, even under water‐stress conditions, predictions of GY and AGB can be improved by considering the RSA of the crop for simulating the RLD.     

流动资产营运与盈利性、成长性关系分析——对中国农业上市公司的实证研究

一般认为,企业的流动资产营运能力越强,其盈利能力、成长能力就会越强。为了验证该假设,笔者以中国农业上市公司2003—2006年9月的相关数据为样本,运用多元回归模型研究了中国农业上市公司流动资产营运能力与盈利性、成长性的内在关系,发现正如所预期,农业上市公司的盈利性、成长性与存货周转率、应收账款周转率正相关。也就是说,公司的存货、应收账款周转速度越快,流动资产创造的利润就越高,其成长能力越强。从回归系数来看,存货周转率的回归系数较高,应收账款周转率的回归系数较小,说明农业上市公司在流动资产的营运管理上,应该更侧重于存货管理。在此基础上,对如何改善中国农业企业的流动资产管理提出了对策建议:农业企业应该加强对存货和应收账款的管理,努力提高其存货周转率和应收账款周转率。     

烟叶化学成分协调性的近红外光谱检测模型研究

对烟粉全部近红外光谱数据采取不同的预处理方法来探究烟叶化学成分协调性（施木克值、糖碱比、氮碱比）,基于有效波长光谱数据建立相应的近红外光谱的检测模型,并利用偏最小二乘法(PLS)通过训练集的交叉验证建立回归模型。通过全部波长数据中值滤波平滑处理后建立施木克值的回归模型,预测集r=0.9861、RMSE=0.0548;通过全部波长数据卷积平滑二阶求导处理后建立糖碱比的回归模型,预测集r=0.9498、RMSE=0.9095;在对光谱数据处理较优的Norris一阶导数数组基础上选取30个有效波长建立氮碱比的回归模型,预测集r=0.9202、RMSE=0.6947。结果表明：利用近红外光谱可以较好地预测烤烟施木克值、糖碱比和氮碱比。